Caleb Ferguson

Born: 07/02/1996 (Age: 20)
Bats: Right Throws: Left
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 215
Body: Bigger build, medium frame, mature for age, power through legs; soft body core, already has maintenance weight through legs and middle; Tommy John in May 2014.

Mechanics: Simple mechanics, toe-touch and pause early in delivery; gets extension with front foot; short and relatively clean arm action, medium-to-high three-quarter slot, above-average arm strength, finishes out front; hugs first-base side of rubber from stretch, extremely quick, get-and-go out of the stretch (0.9), holds runners

Evaluator Will Siskel
Report Date 08/09/2016
Affiliate Great Lakes Loons (Low A, Dodgers)
Dates Seen 08/08/2016
OFP/Risk 45/Extreme
Realistic 40: Swingman
MLB ETA 2020
Video Yes

Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
FB 55 60 86-92 93 Fills the zone, aggressive attacking inside; had a game plan with the pitch and stuck to it; present above-average command, plus projection; heavy pitch, plus life, plus running action bores in on same-handed hitters, some sink; ground ball pitch with some downhill action, misses barrels; late life gives it margin for error, sat 89-92, touching 93 multiple times; velo dipped late in start to 86-90; projection for a couple additional ticks of velo if he commits to core conditioning
CB 40 50 72-77 79 Struggled with early feel, found it along the way; 10/5 shape, two-plane movement, quality bite and depth, gets downhill with it; fringe-average present command, projection to future average command, will attack righties down and in; has trouble with feel at times, showed poise to regain pitch amidst adversity; plays down at present due to inconsistent shape and fringe-average command, average future projection due to tight rotation, two-plane depth, and overall command profile

A 38th-round draft pick in 2014, Ferguson comes with considerable risk given past Tommy John surgery. The body is also risky, with a soft core and legs. It's not impeding him at the moment, and there is power there to tap into, but it will require maintenance and conditioning as he ages.

The arsenal is geared around an excellent fastball from the left side with plus life and above-average velocity, and he confidently attacks all four quadrants with it already. The velocity ticked down due to high-stress innings and pitch count, and durability is a concern going forward. Ferguson projects poise and starter-like characteristics, as he shook off three-first-inning-errors en-route to an impressive outing.

He did not employ a changeup in-game, though he showed some feel for the pitch in warmups, and development of that offering will be key to the ultimate profile.

Devin Williams

Born: 09/21/1994 (Age: 21)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 165
Physical: Tall, lean frame, broad shoulders, long limbs; heavier than listed weight, looks to be more 180-185, room for additional projection

Delivery: Semi-windup, slight step back, high leg lift, slight pause in back; above-average upper body acceleration, high three-quarter slot; on-line finish; Repeats consistently with intent.

Evaluator James Fisher
Report Date 08/17/2016
Affiliate Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A, Brewers)
Dates Seen 8/8/16
OFP/Risk 55/High
Realistic 50: No. 4 Starter/Second Division Closer
MLB ETA 2019
Video Yes
Pitch Type Present Grade Future Grade Sitting Velocity Peak Velocity Report
Fastball 60 65 93 95 Sits 91-94 and touches 95; plane, mild sink; manipulates the baseball to both sides of the plate, elevates when needed; average ability to get glove side down; projection for improved command as he grows into his strength; two-seam variant works 89-90, mild run; work in progress
Changeup 50 60 81 83 Legitimate weapon, nasty when down in zone with fade; deception with arm speed, disrupts hitter timing, induces flailing swings out front
Slider 40 50 83 85 Short tilt when he stays on top, snaps it off at times; can get around the pitch and leave it flat, shows signs of improvement
Curveball 30 40 80 82 11/5 shape, mild depth; uses infrequently but will steal a strike early in the count, arm speed comes and goes

Williams is a 21-year-old right-handed starter with two plus pitches and physical projection remaining. The fastball features downward plane and slight sink, and he shows the ability to locate it to both sides of the plate. The changeup is a true weapon with deception and late fade, and he can already manipulate it. The slider is the better of his two breaking balls, with late bite that will keep hitters honest and he does show feel for spin. His ability to consistently maintain his arm slot and repeat his low-effort delivery are what set him apart from the typical arm at this level. Williams is maturing both on the mound and mentally this year and deserves the promotion to High-A.

Jorge Alfaro

Born: 06/11/1993 (Age: 23)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 225
Primary Position: C
Secondary Position:
Square frame, mature, solid build; barrel chest, thick torso; strength in forearms; sturdy, muscled lower half
Evaluator Adam Hayes
Report Date 08/26/2016
Dates Seen 6x April-August 2016
Affiliate Reading Fightin Phils (AA, Phillies)
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2017 Medium 55 50: Major League Regular Yes
Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 50 Open stance, very slight hand drift; longer bat path, plus bat speed; front foot lands open, generates torque; varies load transfer in anticipation of pitch, plants early when expecting offspeed; generates solid to hard contact with high frequency, high-BABIP hitter, works the middle and opposite fields; aggressive hitter, walks infrequently though not impatient; lots of swing-and-miss
Power 50 Power the opposite way, tendency to pull in BP; strength of contact, directional approach will generate extra bases; flatter plane, lower-trajectory elevation, line drives carry with strength to clear fences; swing-and-miss frequency limits utility; more raw in the tank but home-run power plays down due to swing plane
Baserunning/Speed 55 4.21 home-to-first; full-speed effort on bases; position will limit future ceiling; not a stolen base threat, but will put pressure on defense
Glove 50 Sets quiet target, solid receiver, maintains firm hold; athletic behind the plate, will stab at pitches in dirt, to extremities; handles balls in play, plays at plate
Arm 70 1.89 pop; arm strength to impact running game; keeps throws around the bag, ball will sail, misses tend to be high

A Colombian international signee acquired from Texas in the Cole Hamels trade, Alfaro is a five-tool catching prospect with plus-plus arm strength. The hit tool shows average potential despite an aggressive, swing-heavy approach with a high propensity for swing-and-miss. He offsets those vulnerabilities with the ability to make hard contact, use the middle and opposite side of the field, and scratch out infield hits with his speed. Above-average raw strength and the ability to create hard contact should result in average power output, while his tendency to produce lower-trajectory hits could result in more doubles than home runs. The strength is there to leave the yard, however. He's a max-effort runner up the line and will show present plus speed, though the demands of the position are likely to diminish that.

Alfaro is a solid receiver behind the plate, though he'll get too comfortable at times and stab at balls rather than use his athleticism. Plus-plus arm strength helps to combat the running game. Has the offensive tool set to be more than just a catch and throw receiver, with the overall ability to develop into an above-average catcher.

Isan Diaz

Born: 05/27/1996 (Age: 20)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Height: 5' 10" Weight: 185
Primary Position: SS
Secondary Position: 2B
Broad shoulders, tapered waist, some room for added strength
Evaluator Mauricio Rubio
Report Date 08/27/2016
Dates Seen 6/11-6/12/16, 6/18/16, 8/15-8/16/16
Affiliate Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Low A, Brewers)
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2018 High 60 55: Above-Average Regular No

Works hard during infield/outfield, confident player

Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 60 Open stance, low hands at start of swing create hole up and in, some swing-and-miss, has the hand-eye coordination to cover; compact stroke, all-fields approach; selective hitter, commands the strike zone, recognizes spin
Power 55 Plus bat speed, leveraged swing; plus raw power, drives the ball to the opposite field; will be an extra base threat at the highest level
Baserunning/Speed 40 4.30, 4.25 times to first, 5.01 on a turn, fringe-average speed at present will play a tick down as he ages and adds mass; not a factor on the base paths
Glove 50 Quick hands, good actions, smooth glove; below-average range, stiff lower-half, below-average foot speed; shows some feel around the bag on double plays, will be a steady defender at second
Arm 50 Average arm strength, accurate throws, quick release, will play to average at second

Diaz profiles as a selective hitter who has plus zone command and bat-to-ball skills. He has moderate strength in his swing and will hit for power and average at the highest level. There is a high amount of risk with the player, as he has a considerable amount of swing-and-miss to his offense-reliant game. He is not a special defender, though he shows a steady glove and he has the bat to carry him to a plus profile.

Josh Naylor

Born: 06/22/1997 (Age: 19)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 225
Primary Position: 1B
Secondary Position:
Squat, round middle, low waist, thick thighs; compact mass, present strength through chest and shoulders; high-maintenance body, projects to low aging cuve
Evaluator Wilson Karaman
Report Date 08/29/2016
Dates Seen 7/10, 8/24, 8/25/17
Affiliate Lake Elsinore Storm (High A, Padres)
MLB ETA Risk Factor OFP Realistic Role Video
2019 High 50 45: Second-Division Regular Yes

Intense players, some demonstrable grumpiness on the field, let bad swings/calls bleed into remainder of multiple at-bats; team-sanctioned suspension for "prank" with a knife that injured a teammate at Low-A earlier this season

Tool Future Grade Report
Hit 50 Aggressive, one-piece hand load, pinches front shoulder, load creates max torque; wide base with moderate stride, gets too wide at times, extreme separation, can get unbalanced; quick into the zone, quality hip-shoulder alignment, explosive rotation, plus bat speed, quality hand-eye, plus barrel control; attacks early fastballs, swings hard, doesn't tone down, extremely aggressive hitter, no present two-strike approach; poor timing on off-speed, will lose back side, keeps hands back, ability to sweep barrel through the zone and dump pitches over infielders when beaten; offers all around the zone, will get himself out on pitcher's pitches
Power 55 Plus raw to pull, above-average oppo; hard line drives and fly balls with above-average carry to the pull side, moderate leverage, plane to drive balls to all fields; in-game utility limited by hit-everything approach, lacks patience to consistently attack pitches he can punish
Baserunning/Speed 30 4.84 on a two-step check; heavy-footed runner, some surprising explosiveness in start-up, lacks second gear; body type will not retain speed post-prime
Glove 50 Moderate agility, quick to the bag, sets an early target at first; poor present footwork, raw situational awareness; smooth actions on picks, raw but projection for average defensive utility
Arm 55 Limited exposure, but gets on top of throws, quality velocity, above-average arm strength; raw technique flipping to covering pitchers, messy footwork compromises present accuracy

Drafted 12th overall out of high school in Canada by the Marlins in 2015, traded to San Diego in the Andrew Cashner deal this summer. Naylor's body is mature and the frame is pretty well maxed out for a 19-year-old. His physique is one that will carry ample maintenance weight throughout its middle, though he shows impressive present agility and some explosiveness to his actions. He's a hyper-aggressive hitter whose quality barrel control and plus bat speed have hindered him in developing much of an approach to date. A good portion of his plus raw power should play in the form of hard line-drive contact and carry to the pull side, though the approach will limit the game utility enough to where it's like to wind up short of a true impact bat.

He's not a base-clogger, but the speed is decidedly below-average and likely to peter out quickly. It's a first base-only profile, and while he is quite raw at present his actions suggest potential to develop into a won't-hurt-you defender there. The tools to become a solid big-league hitter are here, though this is a higher risk prospect due to proximity and a bat-first profile that will require his hit tool max out in spite of the approach.

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Wasn't expecting a profile on Naylor with the phrase "won't hurt you"...