We, at Baseball Prospectus, have been talking about first basemen for a while now (three days and change to be exact, depending on when you are reading this) and the party continues to rage on. Yet before we rage, we shall calibrate—since rankings aren’t useful without knowing what you’re reading. The list you are about to read here presupposes a 16-team standard (read: 5×5 roto) dynasty format, in which there are no contracts/salaries, players can be kept forever, and owners have minor-league farm systems in which to hoard prospects. So feel free to adjust this as necessary for your individual league, whether it’s moving non-elite prospects without 2016 ETAs down if you don’t have separate farm teams or moving lower-risk, lower-reward players up in deeper mixed or -only formats.
The position is nearly the polar opposite of the catcher dredge from last week. It’s deep, it’s wonderful at the top—there’s a lot to be happy about. There are even more first base prospects than usual (not that there are that many). Some of the depth causes may cause some surprising rankings—the larger the clump of deeper mixed league options, the lower some of my least favorite of the group will fall. That’s because if you own one and he’s bad, there’s another just waiting for you on the waiver wire or cheaply through trade. Whereas the few prospects here that have the potential to be top-15 options one day are less common. If you want to feel young, go to where the young people are.
The star power of this group awaits. Your list begins here, in the least surprising of places:
1) Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Not only is Goldy a slam-dunk to sit at the top of this list, but he’s so valuable right now that he gives some of the brightest and youngest stars of this generation a run for their money across other positions. In other words:
2) Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
3) Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
4) Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
I’m on record saying that I don’t think Rizzo is quite as good as he’s currently being made out to be, and I’m not convinced he’s either a first rounder right now, or will be one over the remainder of his career. However, the only other guy here who is right now is Cabrera, and Rizzo has more than six years on him in the right direction. Abreu, on the other hand, is nearly four years younger than Cabrera and is not enough of an upgrade this instant to trade the end of a peak for the prime of one. Abreu will spend the next four years in U.S. Cellular and his contact rate improved during his second year in the United States. That leaves him with the potential for some .300-30 homer seasons before he reaches free agency. Cabrera still has the most 2016 value of this bunch, but even though he’s one of the great hitters of this generation, he’s still approaching his decline and injury phase—which will reduce his long-term impact.
5) Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
6) Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
In many ways, these are two similar ships passing in the night. Votto had the bounce back in 2015, which buoyed his dynasty league value mostly due to the resurgence of his power. Hosmer had his strongest fantasy season to date and still has plenty of supporters who believe that more power is yet to come. However, the great thing about Hosmer’s dynasty league value is that he doesn’t need to hit 25 homers to be a consistently high-end fantasy first baseman.
7) Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers
8) Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays
9) Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
This one may be the first group that gets a “huh” from the crowd. Both Encarnacion and Freeman get plenty of support from their sides of the spectrum (E5 from the “now” contingent and Freeman from the “there’s got to be more here” crowd), yet they both sit behind Fielder, who is not held in the same esteem across many leagues. The question is why that’s the case. The question marks were valid heading into 2015, as he had come off major neck surgery, but played in 158 games (just as Fielder does) and continued his great contact rate (just as Fielder does), only with a tinge less power. Encarnacion is great and wonderful, but when the 30’s come, give me the player who has a better track record of health and batting average. Freeman, on the other hand, will mire in a terribad Braves lineup for the next couple of years and just doesn’t have the upside to surpass either 30-something slugger ahead of him.
10) A.J. Reed, Houston Astros
This may seem aggressive, but as the depth on this list exposes itself to you—both in the aging and the only moderately interesting—the value of a potential top-five first baseman sticks out. That is what we’re dealing with, as Reed could be a .280-.290 hitter with 30-plus homers, and he could be in the majors as soon as the second half of 2016. In fact, he’s exciting enough that I had this commissioned from the one and only @holly_holl:
11) Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
12) Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
13) Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
14) Lucas Duda, New York Mets
15) Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals
16) Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
17) Evan Gattis, Houston Astros
18) Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
And here starts the glut. Pujols and Gonzalez are aging and no longer put up the impact numbers of their primes. That said, Pujols did hit 40 homers last year, and if he can stay on the field, is a threat to approach that number again (though it comes at much more of a price than it did last decade). Gonzalez has been very consistent, but the batting average has drifted down to the barely helping range and expecting more than 20-25 homers going forward isn’t a great bet. Belt and Duda fall into the same bucket here but for different reasons. Belt’s health is always a concern and his strikeout rate requires more power output than he’s shown. Duda is generally on the field, but inconsistency has plagued him and held him back from taking a step towards the next tier.
Who knows what we’ll get from Morales in 2016, but the 2015 version was mostly the same one that Angels’ fans saw before his freak injury back in 2010. Of course he’s much older now though. Santana is still on the right side of 30, for now, but just can’t get enough traction with his batting average to move much higher than this. Gattis is DH-only, and unlike Prince Fielder, who knows when/if he’ll get any positional eligibility. My heart wants to put Zimmerman higher up on this list, but he’s just not a good bet to stay healthy. If you could guarantee me 135 games, I still think he could push .270 and 25 homers, but there are other wishes I’d ask for first.
19) David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
For a player we know is retiring after 2016 to rank in the top-20 on a dynasty list, he has to be pretty special, and Ortiz is just that. I’m having a sad thinking that this is the last time I’m going to get to put him on this list.
20) Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates
21) Matt Adams, St Louis Cardinals
22) Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
23) Dan Vogelbach, Chicago Cubs
24) Pedro Alvarez, Free Agent
25) Chris Carter, Milwaukee Brewers
26) C.J. Cron, Los Angeles Angels
Bell may not have the power of A.J. Reed or Dan Vogelbach, but his bat-to-ball skills may be the best of the three, and he could see time in Pittsburgh later this year. I’m not giving up on Matt Adams just because of his injury and the Cardinals’ apparent willingness to give Brandon Moss the first base job over him in 2016. As you can tell by their placements on this list, I think they’ll reverse course if they start the season that way. Power is glorious and Teixeira, Alvarez, and Carter all have reasonable chances to get to 30 homers in 2016. Of course, Alvarez needs a job first. Finally, don’t let the few jumping off the bandwagon affect your resolve—believe in the light within Dan Vogelbach.
27) Greg Bird, New York Yankees
28) Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
I’m not going to endear myself to Bird supporters here, but that power spike in September is not something I’m buying a repeat of and he has nowhere to play in 2016 thanks to the elder statesman of this tier. Essentially, he’s a 2017 ETA prospect without huge upside (maybe .260 with 25 homers). On the other hand, what’s not to love about A-Rod? I could watch him hit dingers and smile until he’s 50. There’s no reason he can’t repeat his 2015 season.
29) Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Indians
30) Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles
These are two of the most interesting first base prospects in fantasy leagues, and rather than summarize myself too much here, I’ll just point out that Greg Wellemyer is doing a Tale of the Tape on these two tomorrow and you should read it.
31) Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers
32) Adam Lind, Seattle Mariners
33) Byung-ho Park, Minnesota Twins
34) Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
35) Dominic Smith, New York Mets
36) Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
37) Rowdy Tellez, Toronto Blue Jays
38) Mike Napoli, Cleveland Indians
39) REDACTED
40) Jonathan Singleton, Houston Astros
It saddens me to no end that Adam Lind has gone to Seattle, but the #AdamLindAppreciationSociety will roll on unimpaired. Rebound seasons could certainly be in the cards for Martinez, and Napoli, but even if they do return to some semblance of former glory, their ages prevent them from shooting up too high here. Byung-ho Park hit five more homers last year in the KBO than Yamaico Navarro did. The trifecta of prospects in the middle of this tier is a fun group because of their differences. Tellez has the power, Smith has the batting average and Olson has the OBP. The first one to get a second skill wins.
41) Jake Bauers, Tampa Bay Rays
42) Justin Bour, Miami Marlins
43) Yonder Alonso, Oakland Athletics
44) Josh Naylor, Miami Marlins
45) Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
46) Adam LaRoche, Chicago White Sox
47) Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
48) Kennys Vargas, Minnesota Twins
49) Logan Morrison, Tampa Bay Rays
50) Justin Morneau, Free Agent
Justin Bour is not going to end up on any of my teams this year. Hoskins and Naylor both could make big jumps up this list—the former if he can prove that his steps forward in 2015 were legit, and the latter if he can continue to take to pro ball seamlessly. The precipitous fall of Joe Mauer makes me long for simpler days, when his batting average was as reliable as the sun rising in the East and setting in the West. I’m not giving up entirely on Yonder Alonso, and he’s exactly the type of person to just start hitting well once he shows up in Oakland. Craig can only hope that Kennys Vargas is next in that line, as he certainly isn’t going to get much run in Minnesota this year.
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He is a first baseman, after all. This is a list of first basemen.
Also, please tell me the dynasties where Greg Bird is drafted after Ortiz, Bell and Gattis. I want in.
We've generally determined eligibility for positions by the position someone is eligible at the year we release the rankings. For instance, Eugenio Suarez will be in with SS even though he's been announced as a 3B by CIN.
The reasoning being that we can't really foresee how teams are going to employ guys on a year to year basis. We factor the likelihood of someone moving down the defensive spectrum in if we don't think they'll retain eligibility, but it's a fools errand to assume we know how teams will play players. Remember when Xander was assured of being a 3rd baseman? and Corey Seager the same? Drastic examples, to be sure, but there's reason to believe Davis could be employed in the OF enough to manage in-season eligibility for a few years, plus it address how people will use him in the coming season.
Davis will be in with 1B next year, assuming he doesn't attain OF eligibility. I don't think it's unreasonable to operate under this construct, but it's also fair to prefer a different approach. This is the one we agreed worked best as a team, but we can understand if you disagree. That said, it's not a reflection of our opinion that he *will* retain that eligibility going forward.
Please get together and decide on one standard to use.
Moss was the single exception on the list and was a mistake, hence he's been redacted. There are not several standards being used.
I'm not going to agree with all ranking and I shouldn't, I want alternative views to challenge my preconceived ideas. But this one is just plain....ahhh, strange.
Sure, I understand that it's reasonable to want to see Chris Davis listed with the 1Bs. The team has explained why they haven't done so. It's incredibly easy to make your own mental adjustment.
If 'this kind of garbage' refers to the comprehensive position by position roll-out that BP has put together that goes beyond last year's excellent coverage, well, I guess your standards for 'not garbage' are exceedingly high.
Also nothing is beneath my humor.
Eric Hosmer = 26, career 108 wRC+, projected at ~ 115
Can someone please explain to me why Hosmer is the better dynasty asset?
Hosmer above Encarnacion is just as mental.
In reality, Hosmer has always been a mediocre option at 1B. His speed is certainly trending down, while his hitting ability does not appear to be trending up in any way - I don't see how anything has changed for the better in his profile over the past year. Yet, somehow he has ascended the ladder...
It's probably time to delete this list, fire the guy who posted it, and then release a new one in a few weeks.
At this point, the best we can do is make clear the guidelines we're using to construct eligibility. My apologies that it wasn't more clear to begin with. I think, certainly, reasonable minds can differ when it comes to choosing the right number for determining eligibility. Unfortunately someone is always left out, or in some cases, left in, when people think they shouldn't be. Still, we'll do our best to address that going forward.
like, for a 1B/OF, putting the guy on both lists, but a C/1B only shows up on the C list. common-sense stuff like that.
Perhaps an accompanying article or section on where multi-positional guys would slot in?
Not that funny. Fantasy baseball is serious.
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honestly i spend most of my time in these comment sections pointing out mistakes in the articles to where i probably get annoying, but at least i'm usually correct that the things i'm pointing out are mistakes. this davis/gattis thing isn't a mistake, it's just a side effect of the ruleset they're using that people happen to not agree with.
personally i'd also put davis in any 1B list i was making, but this is getting silly
Nobody is mad that Chris Davis was omitted. I doubt anybody cares enough to be mad. It just doesn't make any sense to omit him from a dynasty 1B list. Sure, it would make perfect sense to include him with the OF for a 2016 redraft list.
It makes even less sense when you see that Brandon Moss and Brandon Belt, who both have OF eligibility in Yahoo, are on the list. That's simply incongruent.
Most in this industry work full time jobs in addition to writing for fantasy sites. Keep that in mind when reading these rankings.
Also, these rankings are one man's/one team's opinion on the position. You don't have to agree with the rankings.
My question - I am glad to see Hoskins ranked here. He seems to have hit very well at every stop, including in winter ball in Australia. Do you see him continuing to hit for power at Reading this season?
Also, I would note for context, even though I wrote him up as improving his stock in winter ball the other day, his performance in the ABL was likely against competition equivalent to something between short-season A-ball and Low-A, on the whole.
1. You don't need to make a blanket "where is he more valuable?" judgement that might not apply to some people's leagues/teams/keeper situations;
2. You don't have to deal with a million "Where is so-and-so?" posts which always come up, no matter how often you clarify who is where;
3. Comparing how a player ranks relative to his peers across each eligible position is an important part of determining value anyway, and would be a welcome addition to the analysis.
I can't imagine it would be THAT much more work and the benefits would seem to be well worth it.
That said, some deserving players get left off of lists due to multi-positional guys, and given that this is dynasty and that people want to know who is next, who on the fringe is relevant, we try to meet those needs. As suggested above, perhaps including a section on where a multi-guy would otherwise slot is a possibility. Although, merely asking in the comments (as someone did for Myers) also works.
ain't no love, in the heart of to-own
ain't no looove, sure 'nuff is a pity
ain't no love, cause chris ain't around
Kinda like Billy Butler stealing a base on Lester with Conger behind the plate.
Nice job picking Alonso over Rizzo, San Diego Fathers.
I do feel like a few more (or all) of these names could be summarized with 90s music videos though.