Dynasty Dynamics: AFL Progress Reports, Part II

You know the drill by now. Check out the last DD AFL report here, and stay tuned for the final wrap-up next time around.

BEN’S TOPICS

Sam Travis, 1B, Red Sox

I made it all the way to the second installment of this mini-series without writing about a Red Sox. What do I win? Listen, we all know that fantasy first-base prospects are pretty much nonexistent right now. It’s arguably the shallowest fantasy prospect position, catcher included, and there are only one or two guys with the upside to make you think, “well, maybe someday.” Travis lacks that upside, but what he does have going for him is results. The Indiana product is a career .310/.371/.457 hitter in 848 PA, and while about two-thirds of those appearances came in the low minors, he raked in Portland this year, too. Travis lacks big power but it’s hard not to like the hit tool and pitch recognition skills (34 strikeouts to 33 walks in Double-A), and his timetable is pretty enticing, too. Travis is doing mean things to AFL pitching, hitting .338/.395/.515, and he’s significantly raised his dynasty profile since being drafted in 2014. He’s probably a top-150 guy for me right now, even if his odds of ever cracking the top 50 are next to nil. —Ben

Dom Smith, 1B, New York Mets

Two fantasy first-base prospects in the same column? How lucky are you! Smith has been the subject of much discussion on TINO, with Bret Sayre insisting he’s basically the next Lou Gehrig and Craig and I predicting he’s more akin to the next Travis Lee. Like Travis, Smith has hit quite well as a professional, posting a .301/.398/.439 line across three levels. The problem is that he’s hit just 10 homers in over 1,200 career PA, and while his SLG took a small step forward last season it still leaves a lot to be desired. The good news here is that, unlike Travis, Smith seems a decent bet to add at least some more power as he matures, as the southpaw-swinging prospect won’t be able to legally enjoy his first Lime-A-Rita until June. Smith’s AFL season may have come to a premature end thanks to a strained oblique, but we saw more of the same from him (in a good way) when healthy, as he hit .385/.519(!)/.564 in a handful of PA. There probably isn’t first-division upside here, but I’m willing to cede that Smith is at least on track to be fantasy-relevant, though Citi Field won’t help much if he remains a Met. —Ben

Christian Arroyo, SS, San Francisco Giants

“Oh my god, why is anyone writing about Christian Arroyo’s fantasy value in November,” you ask? I don’t want to hear it. You clicked on this article and you’re the one who decided to play arguably the least rewarding fantasy sport on Earth, so you’re going to sit here and read about how Arroyo has performed in the Arizona Fall League. He’s done relatively well. He’s hit .304/.344/.459, which, whatever, it’s the AFL, but Arroyo is a middle infielder, so, okay. I don’t know if he’s really a shortstop or a second baseman, but if you hate yourself enough to play in a league where you care about Christian Arroyo in 2016, do you really care? He hit well last year. He’s hitting well now. Let’s call that a pattern. He’s a better own than Cristian Guzman or Bronson Arroyo. It would be nice if he ran more. Moving on. —Ben

Josh Hader, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Hader is relieving instead of starting in the AFL, and that’s totally because of an innings limit and not at all because he’s probably destined for a career in the bullpen. Yep. Hader recently earned AFL pitcher of the week honors as part of a fall campaign that’s seen him whiff 15 batters in 10 innings while walking two and giving up just one earned run. AFL stats don’t matter and small samples don’t matter and our existences probably doesn’t matter, but this brings up the larger point that Hader could be a potentially useful dynasty asset even if he relieves. Odds are the Brewers leave him as a starter for now, given his success in that role last season and Milwaukee’s rebuilding efforts, but if they do decide to bite the bullet, Hader could reasonably contribute as soon as 2016. That’s not exciting, but if your dynasty league counts holds or you roster a league of TDGX-sized proportions, it’s worth mentioning. Plus, Hader is left-handed, so even if he stinks this season he’ll have about nine more to try to stick. —Ben

Lucas Sims, SP, Atlanta Braves

I’ve gone back and forth enough times on Sims that I’ve earned the nickname “The Oscillating Fan.” I’ve earned it, but I don’t have it. Don’t call me that. Sims started the AFL Fall Stars game and looked pretty good stuff-wise, which is really all that matters. He was up in the zone with his changeup, which is the worst of his offerings, but otherwise checked in with a mid-90s fastball and a slider that arrived in the low-to-mid-80s. He was able to generate swings and misses with the breaking ball out of the zone, and has generally looked the part of a first-round pick during the AFL. Sims missed time during the 2015 season, necessitating his trip to the desert, but it’s been nice to see him finish the season strong after the injury, and continue that performance thus far in Arizona. The Braves don’t have a big reason to be aggressive with Sims, so sending him back to Double-A to open the 2016 season makes sense. It will give him a chance to sharpen his breaking-ball command, as well as further develop his changeup. If he can do that, you’re looking at a solid mid-rotation fantasy starter. —Craig

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Chicago Cubs

One time, Bret literally (literally) wrote a sonnet about Jeimer Candelario. It’s on the internet and everything. Look it up. Candelario enjoyed one of his best seasons in recent memory in 2015, despite an uninspiring start in High-A. The Cubs bumped him to Double-A anyway, and the move seemed to work wonders, as he slashed .291/.379/.462 in the 46 games he played in Tennessee. It was the best performance he had since a breakout 2012 put him on the map as a hitter with patience who could easily develop some power. He’ll only be 22 to open the 2016 season, so there’s reason to believe in the talent, if not the production in a limited sample. The reality is that he hasn’t hit more than 11 home runs in a single season, and he’s going to need to find a way to access his average raw power more often if he’s going to make a case for a starting job. There are tools here, but so far he’s been less than the sum of his parts. —Craig

Yadiel Rivera, INF, Milwaukee Brewers

It’s hard to call a year in which one receives two promotions and debuts in the majors as anything but a success, but this wasn’t exactly Rivera’s best season. He’s performing admirably in the AFL but don’t just scout the stat line here, as he’s benefitting in a big way from the power-heavy environment in Arizona. Rivera did well to cut down on his strikeouts in 2015, dropping them under 15 percent in Double-A, but with it came an utter loss of power. Rivera couldn’t eke out an ISO over .100 in any of his stops, and his Triple-A mark checked in at a paltry .066. In an ideal world Rivera isn’t anything more than a bench guy who can fill in (admirably) around the infield without killing you at the plate, which means that in the fantasy realm he can be left for more intriguing deep-league or waiver-wire adds. —Craig

Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

Tellez is one of the feel-good stories of the fall, as he’s continued his on-field development that has taken him from an overrated one-dimensional pull-side slugger to someone who can spray the ball with power to all fields. While he had weight issues when he was drafted that continued into this season, Tellez appears to have done enough to allay those concerns, at least for the time being. He’s got a strong sense of the strike zone, and showed the ability to produce power without generating significant swing and miss tendencies. He split the season between Low-A and High-A, mashing 14 homers, with half of those coming in 35 Florida State League games—a league generally known for its kindness to pitching. There’s a phenomenally high bar to live up to at first base for prospects, and Tellez isn’t a tremendous defender at the position, though he is more athletic than your Dan Vogelbachs of the world. Still, he’s shown the tools to inspire belief that he can live up to that bar, and if his hit tool can stay in the average range, his plus to plus-plus power will make him a solid fantasy first baseman. Can you imagine how mad Mark Shapiro would have gotten if Alex Anthopolous traded him too? —Craig