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2015 Prospects: Top 101 Prospects of 2015

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February 9, 2015

Previous Rankings: 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007

Chat with Nick J. Faleris and Chris Mellen About the Top 101 (8:00 PM ET) | Read the list with full commentary in Baseball Prospectus 2015

1. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 1

2. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 7

3. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 5

4. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 6

5. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 17

6. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 13

7. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 44

8. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 15

9. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 11

10. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 35

11. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 9

12. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 14

13. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 16

14. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 32

15. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 95

16. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 22

17. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 73

18. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 50

19. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 45

20. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 58

21. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 42

22. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 62

23. Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 18

24. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 100

25. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 31

26. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 19

27. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 29

28. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 54

29. Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 70

30. A.J Cole, RHP, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 53

31. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 41

32. Stephen Piscotty, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 66

33. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

34. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

35. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 21

36. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

37. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 30

38. Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 25

39. Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

40. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

41. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

42. Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

43. Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

44. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

45. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 97

46. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 69

47. Jake Thompson, RHP, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

48. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 75

49. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

50. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

51. Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

52. Marco Gonzales, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

53. Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 47

54. Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 40

55. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 98

56. Miguel Almonte, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 46

57. Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

58. Josh Bell, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 77

59. Reese McGuire, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 59

60. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

61. Manuel Margot, OF, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

62. D.J. Peterson, 3B, Seattle Mariners
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 65

63. Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

64. Eddie Butler, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 26

65. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 61

66. Daniel Robertson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

67. Nick Kingham, RHP, PIttsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 80

68. Alex Jackson, OF, Seattle Mariners
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

69. Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

70. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

71. Nick Williams, OF, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 88

72. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

73. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

74. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

75. Vincent Velasquez, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

76. Kyle Freeland, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

77. Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

78. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

79. Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

80. Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

81. Billy McKinney, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

82. Dilson Herrera, 2B, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

83. Pierce Johnson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 91

84. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

85. Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 78

86. Adalberto Mejia, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

87. Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

88. Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 38

89. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 36

90. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

91. Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 101

92. Jose Peraza, 2B, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

93. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

94. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

95. Hunter Dozier, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 96

96. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: 52

97. Andrew Susac, C, San Francisco Giants
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

98. Derek Hill, OF, Detroit Tigers
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

99. Nick Burdi, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

100. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

101. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
Scouting Report: LINK
2014 Ranking: N/A

Thank you for reading

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tjco1006
2/09
Great list guys!! Really appreciate everyone's hard work. Love seeing Francisco Mejia and Lewis Thorpe in there. A couple of personal favorites, Sean Newcome and Ozzie Albies, missed. Did either merit serious consideration? And yes, I realize not making the list doesn't mean they are not outstanding prispects. Lol.
Reply to tjco1006
NickFaleris
2/09
Newcomb was not far on the outside (next fifteen to twenty) -- Albies wasn't really in the discussion.
Reply to NickFaleris
Behemoth
2/09
Is there a just missed list?
Reply to Behemoth
NickFaleris
2/09
I'm putting it together right now.
Reply to NickFaleris
bryeic
2/09
Great list. Any consideration for Austin Meadows for the list?
Reply to bryeic
NickFaleris
2/09
He wasn't far off -- was in a group of 25 or so that dipped in and out during the process but ended up missing the cut.
Reply to NickFaleris
jrmayne
2/09
Thanks for the list and participation in the comments, guys!

For posterity's sake, I'd like to record my prediction now that Meadows is non-trivially better than Clint Frazier. (Frazier was listed above Meadows on almost all lists last year, too, and I thought that was a mistake then.)

Reply to jrmayne
NickFaleris
2/09
Noted! It will be a fun pairing to follow all the way up the ranks.
Reply to NickFaleris
wjmcknight37
2/11
You guys were lower than most on literally every single Pirate. Something you don't like about the organization? It can't be a total coincidence that you we lower across the board.
Reply to wjmcknight37
NickFaleris
2/11
Who is "most"? Which prospects? Give me some specifics and I'd be happy to elaborate.
Reply to NickFaleris
DavidAlan51
2/09
Why is Kyle Zimmer not on your list?
Reply to DavidAlan51
NickFaleris
2/09
The injuries were a significant set-back for his overall value. Even so, he was right on the outside looking in, and a healthy season will see a very big jump for him. When he's on the field he's a potential top 30 prospect, and you'll find evaluators that would push him even higher than that.
Reply to NickFaleris
eliyahu
2/09
Over/under on Taylor Guerrieri being top 50 at this time next year?
Reply to eliyahu
NickFaleris
2/09
It's possible, not probable. 10%
Reply to NickFaleris
SansRig
2/09
I love seeing Tapia that high! I'm assuming he will be an omission from the BA list, and MLB.com already left him off as well, so - barring a likely (?) top 100 ranking from Fangraphs - he has become something of an exclusive BP prospect.

Anyway, thanks for another great series.
Reply to SansRig
traindoggah
2/09
Law had him at #68. Sickels is on him too.
Reply to traindoggah
SansRig
2/09
Oh. Well, that is damaging to my overall point, but thanks for pointing that out.

I still like that BP is pushing him up so much because he has become my favorite hitting prospect.
Reply to SansRig
traindoggah
2/09
BP was definitely the first on Tapia and has been his biggest booster among the various prospect crews for sure.
Reply to traindoggah
BrettLarter
2/09
I was initially surprised that there were 46 unranked players on this list, but I went back and checked the previous years and it's pretty par for the course

2015: 46 unranked
2014: 53 unranked
2013: 48 unranked

What do you think causes a roughly 50% turnover of this list year to year?
Reply to BrettLarter
MylesHandley
2/09
Graduations, injuries, and loss of ability (lots of top 101 people are toolsy projections that fizzle).
Reply to MylesHandley
matrueblood
2/09
Well, plus new draftees and signees. There are, what, a half-dozen guys drafted the previous summer on most lists?
Reply to matrueblood
jsdspud
2/09
As players get promoted it is harder to put up dominate stats, so existing players that haven't graduated to the majors tend to be ranked lower. Add in all of the players emerging from the complex leagues whose faults haven't been discovered yet.
Reply to jsdspud
heterodude
2/09
Nobody cares, but I have 16 of these players on my dynasty league team in a 12 team league, even after trading away four of them and not having drafted for 2015 prospects yet.

Thank you, Prospect Team, for my bountiful and beautiful minor league roster.

Reply to heterodude
MylesHandley
2/09
Congratulations Marlins on having 0 of the Top 101 prospects!!!
Reply to MylesHandley
MylesHandley
2/09
Was Kolek particularly close to getting Miami on the board?
Reply to MylesHandley
NickFaleris
2/09
He was on a couple different variations of the list but missed the cut when Mellen and I finalized.
Reply to NickFaleris
cmellen
2/09
It was a tough call, but felt right based on where we are with his development.
Reply to cmellen
mcarnow
2/09
No Touki? Given Faleris' love, I was surprised to see him not make the list.
Reply to mcarnow
NickFaleris
2/09
I tried desperately, but we couldn't push him in (and it was the right move to have him just on the outside). He's getting "just missed" love, don't worry.
Reply to NickFaleris
fawcettb
2/09
How a player (Sano) can go from 14th to 12th without playing a minute (and growing a year older) eludes me. I'd like to see the analytical science involved in that one...


Reply to fawcettb
MPC203
2/09
Six players ahead of Sano last year graduated from the list. He didn't play, so there's nothing new baseball-wise to knock him down besides the TJS, but he's not a pitcher.

Who are you putting ahead of Sano? You can make a case for one or two (I like Soler more), but that's about it.
Reply to MPC203
NickFaleris
2/09
AND we kept Buxton and Correa in the top five -- are we even trying at this point?
Reply to NickFaleris
carlbrownson
2/09
I share your contempt for BP's readers. How foolish to talk about the rankings in an article about rankings.
Reply to carlbrownson
NickFaleris
2/09
Is it contempt for readers or tired one-liners like "I'd like to see the analytical science involved in that one..."?

Peruse the rest of the comments and let me know which is more likely.

Thanks very much for reading; we really appreciate it!
Reply to NickFaleris
carlbrownson
2/09
You're right. He deserved it. Fuck that guy for wanting to see the analysis. What a tired one-liner: "analysis". Jesus.
Reply to carlbrownson
sho044
2/09
Its a ranking... which is subjective, which is based on multiple factors, which are also subjective and not easily quantifiable. Which is why it takes a team of writers and a network of scouts to put this list together. Its not like there is an equation on a chalk board, and some dude types in all the numbers and *poof* out pops the rankings...
The point that I would guess is "tired" is the no-value criticism without even an implication of a counterpoint.
Reply to sho044
carlbrownson
2/09
I actually agree with your take on Sano.
Reply to carlbrownson
heterodude
2/09
How close was Max Fried to the list?
Reply to heterodude
NickFaleris
2/09
Not even in consideration. I am a fan, but he will have missed almost two full seasons by the time he is back and throwing meaningful innings. Think of him as a college arm that had a solid freshman year then missed his sophomore and junior seasons before getting drafted -- is that a guy you'd expect to see ranked on a list like this?
Reply to NickFaleris
CJNC1963
2/09
Really surprised that Mike Foltynewicz wasn't anywhere in the top 100. He has generally been in the top 50 - 60 of most rankings I have seen. Also, this list seems low on Jose Peraza. He has been in the 24th to 35 range on most national rankings.
Reply to CJNC1963
NickFaleris
2/09
Folty was just on the outside. Peraza's write-up in the Braves Top Ten pretty much sums up the profile and I think his ranking reflects those realities. Candidate to climb.
Reply to NickFaleris
BillJohnson
2/09
Interesting to see that Alexander Reyes and Marco Gonzales are so close together on this, but there's no sign of Rob Kaminsky, who seems to be generally thought of as only a baby step behind them. Is he really that far behind the other two? Or is it just that when you get down to the lower 50 on this list, the differences among candidates are very slight?
Reply to BillJohnson
NickFaleris
2/09
He was among a grouping of arms in consideration and could rank anywhere in the 75 to 125 range depending on your preferences. We actually had Flaherty as the next Cards' arm with Kaminsky right behind him -- both came up when we were putting this together.
Reply to NickFaleris
sestey4
2/09
I'm surprised to see Sanchez over Norris.

Was Sanchez's successful debut as a reliever a major supporter of his value?
Reply to sestey4
NickFaleris
2/09
This was a very hotly debated pairing throughout the off-season. Definitely supporters for Norris over Sanchez and vice versa (in-house and among industry contacts). The floor on Sanchez was roughly set as impact late-inning arm and it was enough to tip the scales slightly in his favor. But there are very good arguments for having Norris ahead, for sure. It's a really impressive profile; one of the top prospect lefties in the game.
Reply to NickFaleris
jfranco77
2/09
FYI, Taillon was 19th last year, not N/A (at least according to his scouting report)
Reply to jfranco77
NickFaleris
2/09
Yup - 19 on the last 101 and 26 on the midseason top 50.
Reply to NickFaleris
shorsfie
2/09
Hey guys, thanks for putting this together - any chance there will be Prospects and Pizza events held this year?
Reply to shorsfie
NickFaleris
2/09
Depends on travel schedules, but we'd love to make it work!
Reply to NickFaleris
psblcws
2/09
I'm surprised to see Maikel Franco not make the list. Was he close?
Reply to psblcws
psblcws
2/09
My bad, I see he was #96. Delete the comment above.
Reply to psblcws
mhenheffer
2/09
He was -6 from making the list.
Reply to mhenheffer
sdinsmor
2/09
hahaha
Reply to sdinsmor
MylesHandley
2/09
He was in the 96 to 96 range.
Reply to MylesHandley
batts40
2/09
Thanks for all the work you guys put in each year on the prospect stuff. Great as always.
Reply to batts40
philly604
2/09
Curious about Piscotty's jump from the back of most top 100s all the way up to #32? Don't recall the write up being that glowing. His 2014 season was fairly pedestrian and if anything seemed to confirm the questions regarding his power potential. Seems like a guy who would struggle to maintain his position on most lists, not take a substantial jump forward.
Reply to philly604
NickFaleris
2/09
He was 30 on the midseason top 50, so it was technically a fall from when he was last ranked at BP. The power numbers were a little light for what you'd like to see from a corner outfield bat, for sure. But his contact ability borders on elite and he has demonstrated an ability to make adjustments as he's progressed up the ladder.

To me, the lynchpin question is whether or not he will be successful in working to find the pitches he can drive at the highest level. That's a big "if", so I don't have an issue with others taking a more conservative approach. But it's no small feet to make contact at the clip he does given less-than-special bat speed, and overall it's the type of profile I don't mind rolling the dice on.
Reply to NickFaleris
Muboshgu
2/09
How could you leave off ____________? He's my favorite prospect!

Great list. Shows lots of #want.
Reply to Muboshgu
MattCassidyFS
2/09
Nice work as usual, guys. Being a writer for FutureSox, you'll be shocked to see me asking a White Sox question: What about Spencer Adams? I'd have guessed he'd sneak in at the back end. Was he discussed and/or close?
Reply to MattCassidyFS
cmellen
2/09
He wasn't really in the discussion for this one at the present time, but I'm of the opinion he's going to be firmly in the conversation at this time next season after getting some scouting and developmental traction under his belt.
Reply to cmellen
dpotemkin
2/09
O's fan here. I am outraged that Jomar Reyes and Chance Sisco didn't make this list. Bwahahahaha!

Great work, as usual, fellas. Thank you for all you do.
Reply to dpotemkin
dpotemkin
2/09
Damn, I go for funny and then look back and see that Sisco IS on the list. Time to get outta bed.
Reply to dpotemkin
Werpster
2/09
How close was Steven Souza to making this list? Was it primarily his age that lowers his stock value in BP eyes?
Reply to Werpster
NickFaleris
2/09
He wasn't in the discussion but I can buy the argument for him being a top 101 type profile.
Reply to NickFaleris
kkronstadt
2/09
Out of curiosity, why wasn't he in the discussion? Any why does PECOTA love him so?
Reply to kkronstadt
NickFaleris
2/09
PECOTA question best left to the gents who are elbows deep in that feature. As far as the prospect team rankings the shortest answer is that we ended up viewing it more as a low-risk solid everyday asset than a higher upside skill position asset. But I do understand the value in the profile and, as I said, buy into him being one of the top 101 prospect eligible talents if your scale is skewed to that skillset (which would also have ripples in our rankings, such as pushing someone like Susuc higher).
Reply to NickFaleris
AlexTheGreat
2/09
I can see he wouldn't be top 100 but would Kendall Graveman make a top 150? 200?
Reply to AlexTheGreat
NickFaleris
2/09
He would have been top 150 for sure on my personal list, but does not receive universal love. It's a borderline profile for a lot of folks.
Reply to NickFaleris
jbeyer88
2/09
Dear lord, if Bryant is the fifth best prospect in baseball, then I can't wait to watch the generational careers of the four players ahead of him ...
Reply to jbeyer88
jwyllys
2/09
I thought the same thing. Takes some of the sting off of it seeing Addison Russell at #2, though. Either way, the future Cubs infield is pretty exciting, but I am definitely surprised to see Bryant at 5.
Reply to jwyllys
NickFaleris
2/09
Definitely a talent grouping. They should all be a lot of fun to watch.
Reply to NickFaleris
tomshipley75
2/09
Most of the other lists I've seen have Bryant #1 or #2. Is it a coincidence that there are three SS ahead of him? How much does position play in determining the order, overall and specifically in this case?
Reply to tomshipley75
cmellen
2/09
A good amount. We put a premium in general on up-the-middle talent, and in this particular case our assessments/conversations reflect the potential to impact both sides of the game. With any list, when looking at the micro level, things usually come down to evaluator preference, and the premium the particular person or group is putting on certain aspects of the game. We went back and forth a lot on the overall slotting of the Top 5, but in the end thought it was the best representation and also spoke to how we are evaluating the players as a whole.
Reply to cmellen
NickFaleris
2/09
Combination of positional value, defensive value (which is slightly different), and some coverage issues that may or may not have a material adverse effect on his offensive performance against major league arms.
Reply to NickFaleris
mattstupp
2/09
It seems clear that no other pitching prospect can touch Giolito's upside, but I wonder why Syndergaard's close-to-major-league-readiness and lack of injury history wouldn't make him the top pitching prospect in baseball.
Reply to mattstupp
NickFaleris
2/09
More of a testament to Giolitto's immense upside and the fact that we don't view him as being as far away from contributing as his recent usage might indicate. Thor is a dude, no question.
Reply to NickFaleris
gatz75
2/09
You guys do a great job. Love reading your stuff. Whatever happened to Jason Parks? I've been a subscriber here for about a year now and just realized I haven't seen anything from him in a long time. Did I miss something?
Reply to gatz75
bobbygrace
2/09
Jason is now a Cubs scout (not to be confused with a Cub Scout).
Reply to bobbygrace
gatz75
2/09
Wow. Pretty cool. I'm a Cubs fan and didn't know that. Thanks.
Reply to gatz75
Muboshgu
2/09
He's trying to end the curse of the billy goat.
Reply to Muboshgu
tbein3316
2/09
Curious on the Rodon ranking, he seems awfully low, was really surprised to seem him behind Stewart, Heaney, and a few others.
Reply to tbein3316
NickFaleris
2/09
I can see a strong argument for him being a little low. The same, a couple of us (and many in the industry) have a long evaluative history with Rodon, and the 9 appearances totaling just 24 innings in pro ball weren't enough to completely erase that history. If you asked me which of our rankings could look the silliest at this time next year it would likely be Rodon, simply because if he does manage to get everything to click and stick he will be an impact arm almost immediately. We just didn't see enough in the track record to assume that would be the case.

Time will tell! Good question, thanks.
Reply to NickFaleris
tbein3316
2/09
Thanks for the response! I guess what threw me off most was that you guys gave him a higher OFP and realistic role than quite a few of the pitchers ranked above him, and some had either the same or greater risk.
Reply to tbein3316
NickFaleris
2/09
It's a good question -- my gut is that he's approximately in line with the arms around him as far as grades, but can't say so definitively without going back to the lists. He was a 6+/5+/moderate. I know Heaney and Appel, the next two arms ahead of him, were around 6+/6 and 6+/5+ low/moderate, while Aaron Blair and Henry Ownes, the next two behind him, were around 6+/5+ and 6/5+ moderate/low.

Mellen and I used grading to help cluster but dug deeper in trying to parse the rankings once we had our clusters. There might be some instances where we ended up jumping or dropping someone inconsistent with the clusters, but an example doesn't come to mind.
Reply to NickFaleris
tbein3316
2/09
Thanks again for the quick response!
Reply to tbein3316
MaineSkin
2/09
How much does his CT usage and IP in college sway your ranking for Rodon?
Reply to MaineSkin
NickFaleris
2/09
His college usage and performance are definitely part of the profile taken into account, both for the White Sox list and the 101.
Reply to NickFaleris
pwoitko
2/09
Great job, as always guys. I'm curious to know where Yoan Moncada would fit on this list.
Reply to pwoitko
NickFaleris
2/09
Will expand on this a little more in a supplemental piece, but he's likely in the 8 to 20 range depending on where you come down on the defensive profile. I would lean closer to 8.
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natepartridge
2/09
Where would Moncada rank on this list?
Reply to natepartridge
MaineSkin
2/09
I followed a thread between Law and some handles that supposedly called out Noah's maturity level. Law seemed to disagree, so I'm giving zero credibility to the statements, but I've seen makeup play up so much since tracking prospects heavily I am looking for another outlet to confirm.
Does Noah and his XMas pajamas have maturity issues? Did that lead to a down LV '14?
Is Matz first in-line for a rotation spot?
Reply to MaineSkin
NickFaleris
2/09
Mellen is much closer to the pulse on the Mets, and particularly with respect to "who gets the first call", but my expectation would be Syndergaard is the guy and he is a clear cut ahead of Matz as far as the player we expect him to become.

I don't have any make-up concerns w/r/t Syndy.
Reply to NickFaleris
buckoneil
2/09
To me, the message from the top 5 is that defense matters.

Any idea when the fantasy version comes out?
Reply to buckoneil
topheroc
2/09
With Bell listed as an OF, there are no first baseman on this list. Who would be the closest 1B to the list, and how far off was he? Thanks!
Reply to topheroc
NickFaleris
2/09
DJ Peterson and Maikel Franco are two that could end up there soon. Pure 1B probably Dom Smith and Matt Olson, each of whom were close to making the list.
Reply to NickFaleris
MaineSkin
2/09
BA gave Franco 2 best tool awards at 3B in the intl league. He has a 30+ HR season in pitching env while he makes better ct than most if not all power hitters in the MiLs.
I'm starting to think the into oh had terrible 3B prospects. Lol
I do however think he's underrated overall. It was well stated last year he was working on his approach and we all know "working" during game atmosphere can result in terrible results. He ended on fire in the 2H and raked in winter league which he should do if he's even a replacement lvl ML.
Who's the highest on Franco in the BP staff?
Does Bryant's terrible ct% and K% worry he's more Chris Carter than JUp type? Lol, I'm going to get smashed here
Reply to MaineSkin
NickFaleris
2/09
The hands and arm are good and play well at third. But, in the words of an evaluator whose opinion I really value, "Looking good on the balls you get to is not the same thing as playing the position well."

Franco is not a bad third baseman, but it's more than fair to question whether he really fits best there. Definitely a strong finish, offensively, before the call-up, but the call-up also showed us why it's dangerous to bank on an overly aggressive bat with some coverage holes -- major league arms tend to do a good job of finding out how to exploit those profiles in short order.

Still a testament to be on the top 101 in spite of some struggles/setbacks, and in all honesty it was a name Mellen and I discussed bumping up a bit at the last minute, though I believe we were both comfortable settling on him as a 90-100 guy at present (hopefully Mellen will correct me if I'm misstating his thoughts at all!).
Reply to NickFaleris
cmellen
2/10
Nick's correct. We discussed Franco quite a bit. He was a player that I went to bat for when it came down to firmly cementing names in that area into the Top 101, but there was some hesitation in pushing him up further given the ultra-aggressive hitting style. It leaves some concerns as to whether things are going to translate consistently at the big league level, along with the positional value as its probably a stretch to end up over at the hot corner when all is said and done. I'd love to see Franco keep his weight back and trust the process more because I see things really playing up if he can learn to do so.
Reply to cmellen
NickFaleris
2/09
Regarding Bryant, I think he's a very dangerous bat immediately upon promotion, and his ability to be a transcendent talent will be tied to his ability to continue to close coverage gaps and unload on balls in his kill zone. He's a great kid who will work hard on his craft, so I'm a believer he gets there. The only reason he ranks where he does is there is a little less foundational value because of the defense/run so the risk on the bat is magnified some.
Reply to NickFaleris
Madduxfanbrian
2/09
Thank you guys for all your hard work! If you had to guess which of the players 50 and below had the best chance of being in the top 10 next year, who would that be?
Reply to Madduxfanbrian
NickFaleris
2/09
We'll drop it into the supplemental piece.
Reply to NickFaleris
mblthd
2/09
Where would Kang slot in, if at all?
Reply to mblthd
NickFaleris
2/09
Off the 101. Could make an argument for fringe-101 status if you place emphasis on defensive versatility and proximity/probability.
Reply to NickFaleris
newsense
2/09
Last year dearly departed Jason also provided the list broken down by Position, Organization, Age, and Tools.

Any chance of seeing that?
Reply to newsense
NickFaleris
2/09
We have those breakdowns -- I'll check and see if/what is planning to be published.
Reply to NickFaleris
jonmischa
2/09
I think this is the first time I've seen Russell ranked ahead of Correa. I'd be interested to read some of the reasoning behind that.
Reply to jonmischa
NickFaleris
2/09
Very close in parsing that one, and it essentially came down to wanting to see Correa back and on the field for an extended period of time. Correa has the higher offensive upside; a little more positional certainty with Russell.
Reply to NickFaleris
kmacwade
2/09
what's the reasoning behind jp crawford's low ranking? some other places have him top 10. is it worries that the bat will never be plus?
Reply to kmacwade
NickFaleris
2/09
He's not refined enough on either side of the ball for us to push him that high at this point. Great developmental foundation and better than expected performance in the lower levels. But still needs to slow the game down, adjust to advanced spin, and still not sure if power will project.

I'll buy an argument for him being on par with Mondesi as far as aggregate present value (and accordingly slightly less distance than the nine or so spots currently separating them), but not the likes of Russell/Correa/Seager/Lindor.

Seager is the lowest ranked SS prospect out of those four, is 8 months older than Crawford, and crushed 2014 by both evaluative and analytical/productive standards while splitting the year between High-A and Double-A. I can't see lining them up side by side at this point.
Reply to NickFaleris
kmacwade
2/09
makes sense. thanks for the explanation!
Reply to kmacwade
Shauncore
2/09
What's the difference between Taillon and Zimmer? My mind sees Taillon undergoing Tommy John surgery in April and not pitching an inning since while Zimmer at least made a couple starts and pitched well in the AFL. Yet Taillon drops 6 spots from 19 to 26 and Zimmer drops off from #34 last year (67 spots?)
Reply to Shauncore
NickFaleris
2/09
One has almost 300 innings between 2012 and now (including this past missed season) and a clearly identified issue/surgery with anecdotal and analytic evidence to suggest there is a clear road to coming back in solid form.

One has around 150 pro innings between 2012 and now, has missed time with a myriad of injuries (bone chips, oblique, multiple shoulder issues, and now "clean-up" off-season surgery), and has yet to demonstrate an ability to stay on the field.

I think there's a strong argument for healthy Zimmer ranking higher than healthy Taillon, but at this point there is more certainty with the latter. Both should be "late starts" in 2015, but I think there is a more definitive roadmap for Taillon, barring any setbacks.
Reply to NickFaleris
Shauncore
2/09
Well I mean, Zimmer was drafted in 2012 while Taillon was 2010. Zimmer had no chance to rack up innings in 2012 in the professional leagues. He did however through 127 innings in 2012 when you count college and his pro-debut.

From 2013 (Zimmer's first full year) on:

Taillon: 139
Zimmer: 122 IP

It's not really Zimmer's fault that Taillon's 2012 professional season started in April and Zimmer's in July.
Reply to Shauncore
NickFaleris
2/09
Fair point, for sure. Note for 2013 I have 108 IP for Zimmer and 149 for Taillon. Is that not accurate?

In any event, Taillon has multiple years of start-to-finish production as a starter (albeit with the Pirates managing his innings/pitch counts). Zimmer is a converted infielder that has never really lasted a full year's worth of innings. It might not be fair, but the facts we have to work with show an inability to hold-up to a full-season starter's workload. Some of it is bad luck (oblique) but the recurring shoulder issue isn't something I take lightly.

Tough profile to get a handle on given the non-linear progression thus far, so hopefully this is a blip that he quickly puts behind him.
Reply to NickFaleris
Shauncore
2/09
"Fair point, for sure. Note for 2013 I have 108 IP for Zimmer and 149 for Taillon. Is that not accurate?"

Yes it is. 89.2 (A+) + 18.2 (AA) most certainly equals 108.1 IP. Miscount by myself
Reply to Shauncore
TheArtfulDodger
2/09
Zimmer was also shut down with a recurrence of shoulder soreness in the AFL, while Taillon's rehab has yet to experience a bump in that vein.
Reply to TheArtfulDodger
NickFaleris
2/09
Right, his "clean-up" surgery followed.
Reply to NickFaleris
huztlers
2/10
Taillon is just a better prospect, always has been. Isn't this a shoulder vs elbow as well? Zimmer has never done anything well for more than a stretch.
Reply to huztlers
Shauncore
2/10
What's "a stretch"?

Zimmer pitched a full load of expected innings after his draft in 2012 and in 2013 pitched an entire season of innings save for the 2 starts he missed at year end in late-August when he was pulled as a precaution.

Obviously 2014 was unfortunate for him, but he was pretty good in college in 2011/2012, his pro debut in 2012, and almost all of 2013.
Reply to Shauncore
huztlers
2/12
His one full load in 2013 consisted of a bad stretch and a good one. It was anything but a great year.
Reply to huztlers
JCCfromDC
2/09
How close were Trea Turner and Joe Ross to making the list? If Turner had made it, would you have listed him as a Padre, a National, or (*)?

A fun read, thanks for putting this together!
Reply to JCCfromDC
NickFaleris
2/09
Turner is a Padre for several more months or until the commissioner's office tells us otherwise. He was not in consideration for the 101. Ross was just on the outside, and will be mentioned in the "just missed" supplement.
Reply to NickFaleris
oldbopper
2/09
Dominic Smith. I have seen him continue to be ranked highly on other lists despite the 1 HR in 518 PA's. One list blamed it on the ballpark in Savannah, but what about the other half of the games that he played on the road. 1 HR is 1 HR and there is no sugar coating that. Another Mets' bust?
Reply to oldbopper
NickFaleris
2/09
Not at all. He was close to making the 101 and was a name Mellen and I both kept coming back to in order to see if there was a spot for him. He fell short for the 2015 list but I remain very bullish and I think most of the BP Prospect Team believes in the profile, long term, as well.
Reply to NickFaleris
huztlers
2/10
Yes, he is a bust. Some are still clinging to pre-2014 scouting reports, but there isn't anything there to be excited about.
Reply to huztlers
Kaluk8
2/09
Little surprised by the Schwarber ranking. Obviously showed an incredibly advanced bat with power. I'm guessing that the low ranking (IMO) is based on his defensive profile? But considering that he has a good chance to play a premium position for at least a moderate amount of time, shouldn't that be a significant bump? I mean, I'll take a guy that can hit .275 and with 25-30 bombs and catch 60+ games any day. To me, his high floor/high ceiling bat, coupled with a premium positional value, puts him in the top 30.
Reply to Kaluk8
NickFaleris
2/09
I think the jury is still out as to whether Schwarber can in fact catch 60 games a year at the highest level. There's just a lot of pressure on the bat with limited pro sample size to draw from outside of his dominance of levels for which he was clearly too advanced.

Assuming he is primarily a left fielder, and not a first baseman, you could be talking about the potential outcomes ranging from 2014 Nelson Cruz to 2014 Matt Kemp -- each of whom were productive talents with Cruz an above-average producer in the aggregate (with negative value running/fielding) and Kemp a fringe-average producer in the aggregate (with negative value running and significant negative defensive value).
Reply to NickFaleris
oldbopper
2/09
Greg Luzinski seems like a possible comp. Schwarber, making obvious assumptions in development, seems to be very similar. Luzinski proves anybody can play left field if he can hit.
Reply to oldbopper
Kaluk8
2/10
Thanks for the reply - and for all the work on the list! Great job as always.

For me, I would flip someone like Tapia and Schwarber. Schwar's bat is much more advanced and Tapia's D is also pretty raw at this point. Given the choice between the two, if you asked who has a greater chance at having a solid MLB career, I think it's a no brainer that it's Schwarber. Granted, I'm not that high on Tapia's ceiling after he showed he couldn't hit away from Asheville.
Reply to Kaluk8
huztlers
2/10
There is no way he catches one game. He is embarrassing back there, but I think he has a bat to play in a corner. He doesn't need to catch to have value. Knocking for not being a C only makes a little sense. He isn't some kind of Stryker Trahan type spec where his value is solely tied to position.
Reply to huztlers
crperry13
2/09
wtfzorz where is Japhet Amador???
Reply to crperry13
TuckerBlair
2/09
He is a frontrunner for the 101 list of best names.
Reply to TuckerBlair
TwinsfanTravis
2/10
When does that list come out?
Reply to TwinsfanTravis
Seaver41
2/10
How close was Michael Conforto to making the list?
Reply to Seaver41
NickFaleris
2/11
Not particularly close. Next 50 or so names.
Reply to NickFaleris
msbirt
2/10
I'll ask again even though it was posed upstream, just because I'm thinking it was a question that got buried: Any plans on a Fantasy Top 101 like you guys did last year? I loved that list and put it to good use. Would love to have access to something like that again this year.

Regardless, the work you do with the organizational top 10's and again with this list is something that feeds me throughout the winter. I have no idea how I survived a long winter before Baseball Prospectus began putting out top-notch material on a daily basis for the entire offseason.
Reply to msbirt
TheArtfulDodger
2/10
Yes, there will be a fantasy 101.
Reply to TheArtfulDodger
jkwdbu
2/10
Where would Mancado rank on this list?
Reply to jkwdbu
jkwdbu
2/10
misspell: moncada
Reply to jkwdbu
natepartridge
2/10
They answered above that he would be somewhere in 8-20
Reply to natepartridge
mbodell
2/10
I'm curious about the value distribution. Obviously a few of these guys will be huge assets to their teams over the next few years, but many of these guys will flame out. And the best of these will be really good, but there is also uncertainty over are the top of this list really the best or not.

If you were to trade the #1 overall for the bottom X players, what is X? (I.e., if X=3 then a fair trade is Buxton for Burdi, McMahon, and Sisco).

If you were to divide the list into 2 equal value pools, above Y and below Y, what is Y? (I.e., if Y=30 then half the value is in the 30 players from Buxton through Cole, the other half the value is in the 71 players from Alfaro to Sisco).
Reply to mbodell
sbnirish77
2/10
Are these the rankings that will be in the Prospectus?
Reply to sbnirish77
TheArtfulDodger
2/10
The prospectus is already out and contains this list along with writeups from the prospect team!
Reply to TheArtfulDodger
Schneide03
2/10
Any huge differences if this was a fantasy list? I would assume Schwarber would jump quite a bit if you were only judging on fantasy cats?
Reply to Schneide03
jkwdbu
2/10
Hedges won't be on the list.
Reply to jkwdbu
TheArtfulDodger
2/11
There will be a fantasy list available in the coming weeks
Reply to TheArtfulDodger
touchstoneQu
2/11
Any chance we could get a full profile for Daniel Robertson? He kind of fell through the cracks, thanks to getting traded to the Rays after the Rays list came out, but before the As list came out.

Where would he rank in either system?
Reply to touchstoneQu
jlapham
2/11
Fantastic stuff, as always. I'd love to know your general philosophy regarding the weight that you assign to floor, ceiling, and proximity for both batters and pitchers. It seems like you assign more weight to floor and proximity for pitchers. Chi Chi Gonzalez, for example, is much higher on your list than others. Or perhaps you just see a greater ceiling for Gonzalez than others. Thanks.
Reply to jlapham
fathead352
3/13
How close was Micah Johnson to making the list?
What do you think about Luke Jackson?
Reply to fathead352