State of the Farm: “Would you believe in a love at first sight? Yes I'm certain that it happens all the time.”
The Top Ten
- OF Oscar Taveras
- RHP Shelby Miller
- RHP Carlos Martinez
- RHP Trevor Rosenthal
- RHP Michael Wacha
- 2B Kolten Wong
- RHP Tyrell Jenkins
- 1B Matt Adams
- 3B Patrick Wisdom
- 3B Carson Kelly
1. Oscar Taveras
Position: OF
DOB: 06/19/1992
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2008, Dominican Republic
2012 Stats: .321/.380/.572 at Double-A Springfield (124 games)
The Tools: 7+ potential hit; 6+ potential power; 5+ arm; 5 glove
What Happened in 2012: Simply put, Taveras emerged as the premier offensive star in the minors, hitting for average and power in Double-A against much older competition.
Strengths: Elite bat speed; impressive hand/eye coordination; violent torque-heavy swing, but excellent bat control in the zone; hit tool projects to easy 7; batting title potential; raw power is 8; game power could play as 6+; uses the entire field; very hard to exploit; shows defensive aptitude; 5+ glove; arm is solid at al spots; most likely a corner, but can handle center field at present.
Weaknesses: Approach is aggressive and he doesn’t keep bat on shoulders; better pitching will challenge his see-ball/attack-ball approach; will expand his zone; one pro scouting director said Taveras’ biggest weakness is that he doesn’t play for the scouting director’s team; baserunning could still improve; routes/angles to ball in OF need refinement; minor nitpicks.
Overall Future Potential: 7; perennial all-star
Explanation of Risk: Low risk; already dominated Double-A level; high floor/cathedral ceiling.
Fantasy Future: Monster player; has the potential to hit over. 300 with 60-plus extra-base hits.
The Year Ahead: In another org, Taveras might be penciled in to the major-league lineup to start 2013, but the Cardinals can afford to put Taveras in Triple-A until a spot opens up on the 25-man. He’s going to continue to mash at a very high level in Memphis, and when injury or inconsistency opens up a spot at the major-league level, Taveras will mash there as well. His offensive ceiling could make him one of the best talents in the league, the type of player you can build a franchise around. This is a very special prospect who is likely to develop into a very special player at the major-league level. If you haven’t already jumped on the bandwagon, do so quickly. This is a future star.
Major league ETA: 2013
2. Shelby Miller
Position: RHP
DOB: 10/10/1990
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2009 draft, Brownwood High School (Brownwood, TX)
2012 Stats: 4.74 ERA (136.2 IP, 138 H, 160 K, 50 BB) at Triple-A Memphis; 1.32 ERA (13.2 IP, 9 H, 16 K, 4 BB) at major league level
The Tools: 7 FB; 6 CB; 5 CH
What Happened in 2012: A slow start and slightly diminished stuff raised warning flags, but Miller quickly quelled those concerns and put together an impressive season that eventually landed him in the major leagues.
Strengths: Prototypical size/strength; power pitcher with good feel; fastball is plus-plus offering; likes to blow hitters away; curveball will settle in as plus offering; changeup shows at least average potential; pitches with purpose; looks to attack; knows how to miss bats.
Weaknesses: Can fall in love with heater at expense of sequence; command can get loose; tendency to elevate/work up in the zone; because of FB-heavy attack, secondary offerings slow to play to potential.
Overall Future Potential: High-6; no. 2 starter
Explanation of Risk: Low risk; major-league ready; stuff to play up in rotation.
Fantasy Future: Should develop into 200-IP pitcher with chance for high win totals/high strikeouts.
The Year Ahead: Miller is ready for the major-league rotation, and could offer immediate impact in that role. The 2012 season was huge for the big Texan, as the taste of failure and setback aided in the maturation process, both on the mound and off. His willingness to sequence and manipulate hitters improved as the season went on, and the grip it and rip mentality that allowed for success in the low minors gave way to a well rounded pitcher who will find success at the highest level.
Major league ETA: 2012
3. Carlos Martinez
Position: RHP
DOB: 09/2/1991
Height/Weight: 6’0’’ 165 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2010, Dominican Republic
2012 Stats: 3.00 ERA (33 IP, 29 H, 34 K, 10 BB) at High-A Palm Beach; 2.90 ERA (71.1 IP, 62 H, 58 K, 22 BB) at Double-A Springfield
The Tools: 7+ FB; 6+ potential CB; 7 potential CH
What Happened in 2012: A few minor injury hurdles prevented a full-scale breakout, but the Dominican arm still found his way to Springfield, where he flashed top-of-the-rotation potential.
Strengths: Small size, but not small strength; special arm speed; multiple fastball looks; two-seamer works low-mid 90s with sink; four-seam is explosive at 95+; can work 99+ in bursts; curveball and changeup can work plus; changeup might even project higher; possible 7; good feel for pitching; very good feel for secondary command/execution.
Weaknesses: Limited height; can lose angle; will toy with hitters instead of putting them away; tendency to abandon big fastball; relief whispers because of size and violence in delivery/action.
Overall Future Potential: 7; high-end no. 2 starter on a championship level team/elite closer
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; size/delivery could limit workload; some injury concerns
Fantasy Future: Has the potential to be a very good starting pitcher, with electric stuff capable of missing bats. Workload potential is a question mark. If he ends up in the bullpen, could be elite closer.
The Year Ahead: If Martinez can stay healthy and continue to refine his arsenal, he has the chance to be a very special arm. His long-term role is still up for debate, with the secondary stuff and command to excel as a starter, but with some concerns about his physical stability in a rotation coupled with his elite potential in the bullpen, others think he is destined for the late-innings. Either way, Martinez is yet another impact arm in the making, and possesses the highest overall ceiling of any pitcher in the Cardinals system.
Major league ETA: 2013
4. Trevor Rosenthal
Position: RHP
DOB: 05/29/1990
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 21st round, 2009 draft, Cowley County Community College
(Arkansas City, KS)
2012 Stats: 2.78 ERA (94 IP, 67 H, 83 K, 37 BB) at Double-A Springfield; 4.20 ERA (15 IP, 11 H, 21 K, 5 BB) at Triple-A Memphis; 2.97 ERA (22.2 IP, 14 H, 25 K, 7 BB) at major-league level
The Tools: 8 FB; 6 potential CB; 5 potential CH
What Happened in 2012: Magic season for Rosenthal, as his impressive run in the minors was overshadowed by his postseason performance that saw him strikeout 15 hitters in 8.2 innings while allowing only two hits. That’s good, right?
Strengths: Elite arm strength; can hold velocity as a starter; in rotation, can work 93-97 with comfort; in bursts, can work 97-100 mph; both cutter and curveball play well off fastball; curveball shows plus potential; can thrive in either role.
Weaknesses: Fastball-heavy arsenal; secondary stuff gets backburner treatment; changeup is average offering; command can get loose, but survives because of extreme velocity.
Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2 starter/elite closer
Explanation of Risk: Low risk; already proved major league quality out of bullpen; has elite fastball.
Fantasy Future: Depending on the role, Rosenthal could be either quality no. 2/3 starter or elite closer. Impact arm.
The Year Ahead: This is the question of the moment: Will Rosenthal start or relieve? If his future is in the rotation, he will most likely start in Triple-A and work to refine his secondary arsenal. He’s very close to being a complete pitcher, as he has the fastball and the feel for the secondary stuff, not to mention he’s a baseball rat who soaks up knowledge from all available sources. If his future is in the ‘pen, you can stick him in the majors and he’s going to punish people with his elite fastball and that’s going to be the story. Like Carlos Martinez, he’s an impact arm regardless of the role, but will offer more overall value if he can develop to potential in the rotation.
Major league ETA: 2012
5. Michael Wacha
Position: RHP
DOB: 07/01/1991
Height/Weight: 6’6’’ 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, Texas A&M University (College Station, TX)
2012 Stats: 1.80 ERA (5 IP, 4 H, 7 K, 0 BB) at complex level GCL; 0.00 ERA (8 IP, 1 H, 16 K, 1 BB) at High-A Palm Beach; 1.12 ERA (8 IP, 3 H, 17 K, 3 BB) at Double-A Springfield
The Tools: 6 FB; 6 CB; 6 potential CH
What Happened in 2012: Wacha provided the unexpected in ’12, showing up to professional ball with even better stuff than he showed in college, giving him the potential to be one of the steals of the draft class.
Strengths: Excellent size; creates steep plane to the plate; arm works very well; repeats; fastball in bursts can sit 94-96; in longer stints, should find consistency in the 91-95 range; curveball is major-league plus offering; very tight and lots of depth; changeup flashes plus potential; excellent approach to pitching.
Weaknesses: Has yet to work more than short bursts; unknowns about ability to sequence/face lineups multiple times; changeup wasn’t much of a factor in brief professional debut; has a lot of body to control in delivery.
Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; has the size/strength/arsenal, but has yet to work out of the rotation as a pro; too many unknowns for low risk despite maturity.
Fantasy Future: Could develop into prototypical mid-rotation arm, with workload potential and a solid-avg-to-plus arsenal.
The Year Ahead: Wacha is either going to stabilize as a mid-rotation prospect by proving he can hold velocity and execute his secondary arsenal, or his stock is going to drop because of a failure to do so. He was considered a “safe” pick coming out of college, the type of arm that can move fast and be consistent, but not the kind of arm that can dominate or play above his mid-rotation ceiling. Based on the small sample, Wacha looked even better than advertised, and if that proves to be true in a longer sample, he will hold steady as one of the 100 prospects in the game and a future member of the Cardinals starting rotation.
Major league ETA: 2013
6. Kolten Wong
Position: 2B
DOB: 10/10/1990
Height/Weight: 5’9’’ 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2011 draft, University of Hawaii (Honolulu, HI)
2012 Stats: .287/.348/.405 at Double-A Springfield (126 games)
The Tools: 6 hit; 5 run; 5+ arm; 6 glove
What Happened in 2012: In his first full season, Wong played 126 games at the Double-A level and then hit over .320 in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League.
Strengths: Baseball skills; impressive feel and instincts; plus bat-to-ball ability; compact and short to the ball; can make hard contact; not empty hit tool; can turn around velo and stay back on off-speed; great hands at the plate; 6 potential at second; arm is above-average; good glove; good run.
Weaknesses: Packs a punch for size, but is still limited in that regard; below-average power; lacks high-end tools and unlikely to develop into impact talent; right-side profile on defense
Overall Future Potential: 5; solid-average major-league regular
Explanation of Risk: Low risk; performed well at Double-A level; mature skill-set.
Fantasy Future: Not flashy, but can do a little of everything on the field; has potential to hit .280-plus with good secondary skills (OBP, some steal, some pop).
The Year Ahead: Wong is the second baseman of the future for the Cardinals, and could achieve that eventuality at some point in 2013. He’s a gamer all the way, and despite not owning a high-impact tool collection, makes the most of his size and skills. He’s going to hit the baseball at the highest level, with enough sting to keep pitchers honest and defenses aware. It’s not a superstar profile, but Wong is the type of player that will stick around on a major-league roster for 15 years. He’s that guy.
Major league ETA: 2013
7. Tyrell Jenkins
Position: RHP
DOB: 07/20/1992
Height/Weight: 6’4’’ 192 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2010 draft, Henderson High School (Henderson, TX)
2012 Stats: 5.14 ERA (82.1 IP, 84 H, 80 K, 36 BB) at Low-A Quad Cities
The Tools: 6 FB; 6 potential CH; 6 potential CB
What Happened in 2012: Up and down season for the former multi-sport athlete, showing glimpses of greatness immediately followed by glimpses of gloom.
Strengths: Plus athlete; legit arm strength; fastball is plus pitch; both secondary pitches show plus potential; multiple sources put future changeup ahead of curveball; pitch shows excellent late fade to the arm side; can throw strikes despite being raw.
Weaknesses: Pitchability behind raw stuff; slot inconsistency; works better in three-quarters, but will bring arm over the top to get more velocity but loses movement and command; still has a long way to go.
Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 2/3 starter
Explanation of Risk: High risk; pitchability needs to improve; still raw.
Fantasy Future: Could develop in a number of different ways; has arsenal potential and delivery to start; flashes electric potential.
The Year Ahead: Jenkins will most likely move to High-A, where the environments should help him survive even if his fastball command remains loose and his secondary arsenal inconsistent. He has a lot to work on and a long way to go, but with an athletic delivery and the feel for three pitches, he has a chance to put the pieces together and emerge as a high-end prospect. His breakout might not be on schedule for ’13, but the potential is there and the patience has a chance to pay off.
Major league ETA: 2015
8. Matt Adams
Position: 1B
DOB: 08/31/1988
Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 230 lbs (listed)
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: 23rd round, 2009 draft, Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania (Slippery Rock, PA)
2012 Stats: .329/.362/.624 at Triple-A Memphis (67 games); .244/.286/.384 at major league level (27 games)
The Tools: 7 power; 5+ potential hit
What Happened in 2012: Called up to the majors in late May, Adams failed to deliver on the promise that his minor-league production suggested was possible.
Strengths: Very large raw power; game power should at least play at the plus level; shows hittability; not just all-or-nothing power bat; glove is solid; arm is solid.
Weaknesses: Approach can get aggressive; fastball eyes can leave him in front foot for off-speed; mistake hitter that didn’t see as many mistakes at major-league level; defensive profile puts pressure on bat; well below-average run.
Overall Future Potential: 5; solid-average regular
Explanation of Risk: Low risk; nothing left to prove at the minor-league level; some Four-A concerns.
Fantasy Future: Has the potential to hit .275-plus with 25 HR at the major-league level
The Year Ahead: Adams has nothing left to prove in the minors, as he crushed Double-A in ’11 and improved on that performance in his 67-game run in Triple-A in ’12. Despite falling short in his initial major-league trial, Adams has the offensive skill to make the necessary adjustments in a longer look. He’s not going to be a star, and the defensive profile puts his future success on the back of his bat, but he’s not just a swing for the fences masher. Adams can really hit, and if given a full season to fail and adjust, he could be ready to make good on that potential.
Major league ETA: 2012
9. Patrick Wisdom
Position: 3B
DOB: 08/27/1991
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1st round, 2012 draft, St. Mary’s College of California (Moraga, CA)
2012 Stats: .282/.373/.465 at short-season Batavia (65 games)
The Tools: 6+ arm; 5+ glove; 6 power potential
What Happened in 2012: After a somewhat disappointing junior season at St. Mary’s where he managed to hit only .252, Widsom was popped in the supplemental first round and performed well right out of the gate.
Strengths: Broad chest/broad shoulders; very good present strength; very promising defensive profile at third; very strong arm; accurate; glove is above average; major league quality defender; 6 power potential; can drive the ball with authority; good overall approach at the plate.
Weaknesses: Unlikely to hit for a high average; swing can show some length; struggled with velocity in junior season; how much power will play?; well below average run.
Overall Future Potential: 5; solid-average major-league regular
Explanation of Risk: High risk; 21-year-old college talent, but only short-season experience and questions about the bat.
Fantasy Future: Has potential to hit ~.260 with 25-plus home runs; not a stolen base threat.
The Year Ahead: Wisdom will move to full-season ball, and if he has any major holes in his swing or his approach, we will soon find out. Wisdom’s up and down junior season left a lot of talent evaluators skeptical of his professional profile, but scouts who saw him in the New York-Penn League came away impressed with the promise at third and the power potential in the bat. 2013 will help bring the real profile into the light.
Major league ETA: 2015
10. Carson Kelly
Position: 3B
DOB: 07/14/1994
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 2nd round, 2012 draft, Westview High School (Portland, OR)
2012 Stats: .225/.263/.399 at rookie level Johnson City (56 games)
The Tools: 6+ arm; 6+ power potential
What Happened in 2012: A very promising two-way talent in high school, Kelly was drafted as a third baseman and began his long journey with a clip in the Appalachian League.
Strengths: Big raw power; very big arm (was low-90s+ on mound); excellent strength (present); more potential in hit tool than rookie numbers indicate; has bat speed and can drive the baseball.
Weaknesses: Defensive projection at third is shaky; lacks ideal lateral movements; well below-average run; might end up at first base at full maturity; swing can get long; will chase out of the zone; still raw.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; could be first-division type at third; bat has potential to play at first.
Explanation of Risk: High risk; only 18 years old; very long way to go.
Fantasy Future: If everything goes as planned, could be prototypical third base bat, with plus power potential.
The Year Ahead: Kelly is very young and could use more time at the team complex before returning to short-season ball over the summer. The impact potential is there, with plus weapons in the arm and the raw power, but it’s not going to be an overnight situation. More than anything else, he just needs to play against quality competition day in and day out, and even if the numbers don’t reflect the potential, the ceiling is quite high.
Major league ETA: 2016
Prospects on the Rise:
1. IF/OF Starlin Rodriguez: Toolsy and ready to take the next step forward in 2013. With Wong positioned as the second baseman of the future, look for Rodriguez to log time at different positions, with the speed and instincts for center field. Not a future star, but a player that could hit for some average, steal 20-plus bases, and surprise you with 10-plus HR pop. Good player that could put up numbers in Double-A.
2. OF CJ McElroy: The fastest player in the Cardinals organization, the Texas-born outfielder has major-league bloodlines and a chance to develop into an impact talent. He will attempt to add switch-hitting to his profile, giving the electric athlete another dimension to his game. It might be one step back in order to take two steps forward, but he has the raw ability to emerge as a major player of interest in 2013.
3. OF Charlie Tilson: Injured for all of the 2012 season, a fully healthy Tilson is ready to step back into the prospect spotlight. With incredible hands at the plate and instincts for the game that impress even the most seasoned major-league evaluators, it won’t shock many to see the former second-round pick jump into the top 10 by this time next year.
Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013
1. RHP Maikel Cleto: Cleto is a large man with a large fastball, and the potential to be a force at the back of a major-league bullpen. With a fastball that works 96-99 and a mid-80s slider, he is going to miss barrels, but will need to refine his max-effort mechanics if he wants locate his offerings and execute to his potential.
2. SS Ryan Jackson: His bat isn’t going to keep pitchers up at night, but the overall profile will find a home at the major-league level, and he just might surprise a few people that want to sleep on his bat. It’s a glove-first profile, with legit baseball skills and instincts, and he should develop into a solid utility option going forward.
3. LHP John Gast: A solid but not spectacular starter, with a solid-average arsenal and the ability to execute and sequence. The soon-to-be 24-year-old isn’t going to dominate, but he has a chance to find a home at the back of a major-league rotation, and should get his first taste of major-league action at some point in 2013.
Top 10 Talents 25 and Younger (born 4/1/1987 or later)
- Oscar Taveras
- Shelby Miller
- Carlos Martinez
- Lance Lynn
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Michael Wacha
- Kolten Wong
- Tyrell Jenkins
- Matt Adams
- Patrick Wisdom
There are organizations that get the nod for having “depth,” typically abundant with low-minors high-ceiling youngsters, but light years from the Show and in the infancy stages of the development process. And then there is St. Louis. The Cardinals not only boast a system deep with talent, but one filled with potential big-league regulars and impact players pushing into and through the upper levels.
The prospect-heavy 25-and-Younger list starts with Oscar Taveras, a rare combination of explosive hands and the ability to keep them under control without sacrificing that explosiveness. Taveras profiles as a classic third hitter, with his future as a franchise corner outfielder coming into focus. Shelby Miller carried his first taste of the majors and September call-up into a spot on the NLCS roster. The righty’s bat-missing arsenal could inject more youth into the Cardinals’ rotation as early as 2013, and he offers the organization a potential front-line starting fixture for seasons to come as he matures.
Fellow right-handed starter Lance Lynn kicked off that process in 2012, bringing an element of nastiness and the type of stuff to keep major-leaguer hitters at bay in a middle-of-the-rotation role after logging a full season’s workload in 2012. Former international signee Carlos Martinez bests both Miller and Lynn’s arm strength, with an explosive fastball that can touch the high 90s and a future that may see him anchoring a rotation. Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, and Kolten Wong are fast-trackers who should continue the youth movement on the roster or give St. Louis the option to acquire an established piece. Rosenthal and Wacha factor into the ever-important young arms race, while Wong can establish himself as the second baseman of the future. Tyrell Jenkins is an intriguing arm, more promise than product presently, but with the talent a development staff loves to work with.
Corner infielders Matt Adams and Patrick Wisdom finish off the robust list. Both have some questions on how their bats will ultimately translate, but possess the potential to round into average regulars, which illustrates just how deep this system is. St. Louis has become a model for player development and the output can prove to be a vital factor in being a perennial contender. –Chris Mellen
A Parting Thought: Damn, this system is good.
Last year's Cardinals rankings
Special thanks to Nick Faleris, Mark Anderson, Chris Mellen, and Jason Cole for their input and influence with this list.
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Under Jocketty, the Cards had a miserable track record of in their attempts to find and develop quality young arms. Aside from Matt Morris and Adam Wainwright that is, and kudos to Jocketty for stealing him from Atlanta. The saving grace was Duncan and his ridiculous ability to turn retreads and never-has-beens into solid contributors: Jeff Weaver, Lohse, Kile, Suppan, Pinero, Kent Bottenfeld, Todd Wellemeyer, Ryan Franklin, Westbrook, Penny, Marquis, Garrett Stephenson, Andy Benes, Woody Williams. I completely forgot about some of these guys until I googled it. That's not even including what he did for A's with Stewart, Welch, and Eck. Has there ever been a pitching coach more deserving of being in the HOF?
under luhnow, the cards drafted so many low-round gems that it can't be a fluke ---- jaime garcia rd 22, trevor rosenthal rd 21, matt adams rd 23, matt carpenter rd 13, luke gregerson rd 28. that's a lot of WAR to harvest on the 2nd and 3rd days of the draft.
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Height/Weight: 6’3’’ 230 lbs (listed)
I haven't stopped laughing since I read this, Jason - awesome and sublime at the same time. Thank you!
Two questions. First, nobody in their right mind expects Pete Kozma's month of glory last year to carry over into the rest of his career, but what was your reasoning in putting Ryan Jackson on the "Factors on the Farm" list and leaving him off? Seems to me that exactly one of those two will probably spend significant time on the roster this year. Or do you think Jackson has that sewn up?
Second, much has been made of the "worst to first" transition this system has (apparently) made. Fact is, however, several important contributors to the successful teams of the last two years -- Jon Jay, David Freese, Allen Craig, Mitchell Boggs, Jaime Garcia -- were already in the system by the beginning of 2008. Might the system have been underestimated back then?
It's much more likely the Cardinals upper level player development system exceeded expectations in finishing off those players than prospect writers were undervaluing their skill sets at the time. I'd give credit to Luhnow, Vuch and Mozeliak without discrediting KG, BA, Law, etc.
Craig hit everything in the minors, I'd say he was a valid miss. Garcia was appropriately ranked IMO at #5 by KG back in 2008.
A lot of the elite talent in this system now, that makes it a fairly easy #1--Miller, Taveras, Martinez, Jenkins are results of a slight shift in the STL paradigm. They hit on two first/sandwich-round HS pitchers (Miller and Jenkins) who didn't fit their traditional draft strategy under Jocketty, and they hit really big on two international signings (Taveras and Martinez) who also don't fit the typical STL player development profile of polished college players. Take those four out and it's a pedestrian system, with Rosenthal, Wacha, Wong and Adams in the top 4. Not bad, but not great.
When is a reliever more valuable then a starter?
After watching Rosenthal in the playoffs and at the end of last season, he looked like Kimbral. His scouting report matches that and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see him "close" at that level.
By comparison, his ceiling is that of a #2 starter which means he's more likely to be a 3/4 (coin-flip statistics).
So would an organization prefer a 3+ win reliever or 2/3 win starter?
If the choice is between a player who's 3+ wins at one position or the same player giving you 2-3 wins at another, I think you clearly take the former, unless you have a 3++ win player there already and putting the player in the spot he gives you 2-3 wins is best for your team. I think they have to use Rosenthal in both roles to ultimately find out where he gives them the most value. Barring injury, there won't be a real opportunity for that until 2014 when Carpenter and Westbrook are off the books.
Jason, what should the Cards do with Taveras? Keep him marinating in AAA so that he can refine his outfield defense? If his bat can handle MLB pitching, just wondering if the glove would be enough to supplant Jay in CF?
Stephen Piscotty, 3B/OF; Greg Garcia, MIF; Anthony Garcia, OF; Mike O'Neill, OF; Breyvic Valera, MIF; Kevin Siegrist, LHP; Seth Maness, RHP (a personal favorite of mine who may provide the ultimate answer to how far a pitching prospect can advance with middling velocity and preternatural command/control); Boone Whiting, RHP; Jordan Swagerty, RHP. Most all of these guys, as well as others Jason mentions in the "Prospects on the Rise" and "Factors on the Farm" sections, would have a chance of appearing on some teams' top tens, with the rankings among them being probably a matter of taste.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19521
The last time Hamilton was the topic on Up and In, I seem to recall Jason and Kevin agreed that if there were a number higher than 8, Hamilton would have it.
Now, Cain might not have the Randy Johnson/Pedro Martinez low WHIP, insane K/9 type of numbers... But he's been very durable for quite a few years with a high level of performance.
The moral of the story is that, in reference to Shelby Miller, being projected as a #2 is not a death sentence.
The point I wanted to make, though, is that it's kinda goofy to say Matt Cain, rated #10 by BA, was underrated as a prospect, when several more or as valuable players were rated below Cain. It's equally goofy to say he's overrated now when he's widely acknowledged to be a #2. There are maybe 6-8 bona fide #1s, and maybe 12-18 true #2s. Can is one of the 9-25th best pitchers in the game, and calling him a #2 isn't underrating him.
So. If Shelby Miller is projected as or ends up to be a #2 and falls somewhere in that range of 9th-25th best SP in MLB, that will be quite an accomplishment. Saying now that he has #2 potential is, similarly, praising the kid. We've gotta stop looking at #2 as a knock on pitchers. It's an A-.
According to BP, Andrus is worth 0.5 wins more. Now, Andrus may have more potential value for doing what he did at a younger age and at a "skill position", but if we're using BP WAR as a metric, the actual value difference is just 0.5, not 0.5 + potential. Perceived or forecasted value may be 0.5 + potential, but not the actual value.
All things considered, though, it's also a little early to do entire career comparisons based on just four seasons.
Goofy? You could go to any year of any draft and find an All-Star that was drafted before a Hall of Famer. Similarly, you could find a solid major leaguer who was drafted after a bunch of busted prospects. That doesn't mean that All Star or that solid major leaguer wasn't underrated.
Part of the issue just might be that there are more pitchers than starting shortstops. Andrus gets compared to just 29 other players. Cain gets compared to 150 pitchers. For many teams, I'd think Cain would be the ace. Lincecum's 2013 hiccup aside, Cain's usually the #2 to Lincecum.
*mumbles to himself*
Heck, if we use WAR, I don't think Cain even breaks the top 25 for 2012. Maybe my perception of him is just better because of his low ERA and WHIP in a pitcher's park. Though I wonder why my eyes aren't as rosy for Andrus in a hitter's park... so maybe I'm overvaluing Cain in general when studs like Kyle Lohse out-WARP him...
Anyway, I do agree with your last paragraph. #2 isn't a knock.
I picked Fangraphs from 2007-2012. In roughly the same # of starts I see Sabathia with 38.1 fWAR, Halladay with 37.6, Verlander with 36.1, Lee with 32.7, Felix with 32.0, Greinke with 31.0, and Cain with 23.3. (Kershaw has 1 fWAR less than Cain in 48 fewer starts.)
If I sort BBREF from 2009-2012, shortening the window and changing the metric, I still get Cain in 11th, averaging 2 wins/year less than Verlander and Halladay, 1.5 wins/year less than Kershaw and Lee, and over a win per year less than CC and Felix. (BBREF credits Josh Johnson with 2.5 more WAR than Cain in that span, over 30 fewer starts).
If you want a "number one" or "ace" definition with an umbrella big enough to include Cain (and Lester, and Hamels, and Weaver) then you have to allow that some aces are 35% less valuable than others. I'm not sure one can make a good case for that.
Another exciting aspect of this system is that, after the 2013 season, if the prospects develop as projected, players like Beltran, Furcal, Mujica, Cedeno and Westbrook will likely move on, and guys like Chris Carpenter, Scrabble, Wiggonton (year 2 of 2 on a small $ contract and Choate (year 2 of 3 on a small $ contract) could also be gone. Wainwright potentially could sign elsewhere (hopefully not). Thus going into 2014 if all of those players departing are replaced by players from the farm system, with the exception of Holliday the entire 25 man roster will be players developed by the Cardinals. Even if Wainwright resigns with the Cards, he and Freese came through the Cards system after being acquired via trades while they were minor leaguers.
I realize the Cards may go outside the system for a SS, as opposed to playing with Kozma, Johnson or Garcia, and it is very possible that another middle reliever, bench bat or loogy could be signed from outside the system, but maybe not.
Does anyone have any idea of historically what team has ever had the most "homegrown" (thus including Freese and/or Wainwright) players on its 25 man roster at any one point in time?
Thanks for any responses.
If you're half-right, and the others are half-right, then he'll either be an ace or a wash-out. :)