With last week's Rule 5 draft in the books, it's time to figure out who is going to stick; in general, the over/under on players ending up on the 25-man roster of their selected team is somewhere around four, and by the end of the season, that number is at least halved. Per Rule 5 rules, if a player selected does not make his new team's 25-man roster (or is taken off of it during the season), he must be offered back to his original team at the cost of $25,000. Some recent Rule 5 success stories include Johan Santana, Dan Uggla and Josh Hamilton.

These 10 guys below might not end up as stars, but they have a good chance to make an Opening Day roster:

1. Josh Rodriguez, IF

Pirates (from Indians)

The first pick in the draft, Rodriguez's combination of talent and opportunity places him on this list. Caveat: he's only a career .266 hitter in the minors—but he makes up for it with secondary skills rarely found in a middle infielder, as he's averaged roughly 13 home runs and 70 walks per 500 at-bats as a pro. His range is below average for a shortstop, but he can play there in a pinch, as well as two other infield positions and the outfield corners. The Pirates are young next year, and need flexibility like this in terms of personnel. That will help Rodriguez.

2. Aneury Rodriguez, RHP

Astros (from Rays)

The 23-year-old's fastball is a plus pitch at 92-94 mph, and with two average secondary offerings to go with solid control, there is no reason he can't serve as a usable swing-man for Houston. Honorable mention to Houston's second pick, Lance Pendleton of the Yankees, who has less stuff but more polish than Rodriguez. I'd take one of these Houston arms sticking over the whole field. We need to remember figuring out the full composition of the Astros' bullpen is basically a dart-throwing exercise, so someone's going to stick.

3. Elvin Ramirez, RHP

Nationals (from Mets)

His fastball touches 98 mph. In the Dominican winter league, he whiffed 28 in 22 innings and only walked four. If he keeps those kinds of numbers up, he's a lock to make the Nats—and if he doesn't, his velocity might keep him around anyway. He walked 5.5 men per nine innings last season in the minors, so control is a problem for Ramirez.

4. Joe Paterson, LHP

Diamondbacks (from Giants)

Paterson is nasty against lefties; they went 21-for-97 (.216) against him in 2010 with just one home run and 36 strikeouts. His combination of sink and deception means that, even when he is hit, it's rarely in a dangerous way, and while his ceiling is that of a one-sided specialist, he's good enough to learn on the job.

5. Scott Diamond, LHP

Twins (from Braves)

Like Paterson, Diamond is a left-hander who can get ground balls and get lefties out, and like Paterson, that's about the sum of his skills. The Twins have historically valued command and arsenal depth more than most organizations, so Diamond likely looks better in their eyes. The biggest concern heading into spring training is a strikeout rate that dropped significantly (7.9 per nine down to 5.3) following a mid-season promotion to Triple-A as some of his tricks didn't play so well at the upper levels.

6. Patrick Egan, RHP

Brewers (from Orioles)

He's 6-foot-8 with good fastball movement, which is a plus. Another plus is that he has a good sinker and a ground ball ratio of almost 3-to-1 last year. The bad, which is also the reason the Orioles didn't protect him: he has no "out" pitch, and he only strikes out about one guy per every two innings. That's too much contact to survive at the big-league level.

7. Jose Flores, RHP

Mariners (from Indians)

The second overall selection in the Rule 5, Flores struck out 51 batters over 42 innings in 2010, while walking just seven and surrendering just one home run. Those give him the best raw numbers of any pitcher selected. Those, however, were achieved in the Midwest League, and the jump from Low Class A to the majors is so large as to be almost impossible to properly calculate. On his side he has above-average velocity and command, but those traits being enough to stick in the Seattle bullpen seems like a long shot.

8. Brian Broderick, RHP

Nationals (from Cardinals)

The Nats basically have the final three bullpen slots for 2011 up for grabs, and one scout put it best when he said, "If Broderick had any stuff, he'd be a great prospect, because he sure knows how to pitch." Mixing up a deep arsenal while treating walks as if they are a criminal offense, Broderick is a survivor and a battler—and he's so good at his craft that you have to give him an outside shot of survival.

9. Brad Emaus, IF

Mets (from Blue Jays)

With incumbent Luis Castillo delivering misery in two of the last three years, the Mets' second base job is an open competition, so they took a cheap risk by inviting Emaus to the party. Always the type who plays above his tools, Emaus' .298/.395/.495 line a Triple-A impresses initially, but he was taking advantage of a hitters' paradise in Las Vegas as in Pacific Coast League road games he hit just .259/.383/.386. Emaus has a good understanding of the strike zone and gap power, but he's a poor defender and below average runner. That combination only works if you have Uggla's power, and Emaus is far from that.

10. Michael Martinez, IF

Phillies (from Nationals)

On the surface, Martinez looks like a zero-chance player: he's 28 years old, wasn't protected by a last-place team, and now will try to make the roster of a perennial championship contender. In his favor, he's a plus runner with a little bit of pop who played six positions last year, all of them at least at an average level. Incumbent Wilson Valdez is his competition for the multi-positional backup job in Philly, but Martinez has enough skills for a fighting chance.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

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Given how little the Twins were apparently asking for J. J Hardy, and how much the Giants needed a shortstop, I'm kind of surprised that Sabean let Joe Patterson go via the rule 5 draft instead of using him to get Hardy. Patterson maybe somebody like Jason Stoffel would have been a better package than what the Twins got, and the Giants wouldn't have missed them all that much. As it is, they got nothing for Patterson.
Since they got nothing, it seems unlikely that the Twins would have considered his inclusion in a deal as providing much value. It's tough in fantasy baseball to trade players you aren't planning to keep, in real baseball I'd have to hope it's nearly impossible.
I think you need to look at the guys the Twins actually got: Plus the Twins tossed in another player and 500K. Would you really rather have these two guys instead of
Is there any recollection of what was said about Santana when he was drafted? Is it easy to see who could really be a great snag for a team?
In his first four seasons in the minors, Santana racked up an ERA of 4.79 in 333 innings, without ever cracking High-A. Obviously people knew he had some potential, since the Marlins grabbed him with the first pick and the Twins immediately traded to get him. After watching Santana suck for four seasons, the Astros probably thought he didn't have what it took to realize his potential - and who could really blame them at the time? They knew the guy better than anybody. So regardless of how Santana actually turned out (after two terrible years dragging down the Twins' pitching staff in which he averaged around 5.00 ERA), the Astros move was defensible at the time. Bad luck, that's all, and I don't think there's a lesson to be learned there about which players turn out to be stars and which never make it out of the minors for good.
I think he picked up the change up long after he was taken in the Rule 5. Santana without the change up is a different pitcher.
I bet a lot of rule-5 guys would turn out great if, after they were acquired, they learned to throw the best change-up in baseball.
Emaus is not a poor defender.
what two years dragging down the twins staff are you talking about? are you talking about his first 120 IP in teh majors as a 21-22 year old who got 9 starts and 37 Relief appearances?
Yes, those. 120 IP of garbage pitching does drag down a pitching staff. Not cataclysmally, if the rest of the pitchers are good, but there's no argument you can make to show that Santana was good, above-average, or average during those seasons. Point being: the Twins were willing to put up with those growing pains, and the Astros weren't. How would the pick have looked if Santana hadn't learned that changeup? It's not like the Astros left him unprotected in full knowledge that he would suddenly figure out something that he'd never done before.