A little something to take your mind off the forthcoming cinematic pantheon-dweller… In last week’s Can, I took a gander at the minor league power indicators of some of today’s most potent hitters in an effort to find the most accurate power indicators at the minor league level. The study pool (Group A) comprised the 25 active leaders in slugging percentage who had logged at least 3,000 ABs in the majors. The group included such heavies as Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero. This time around, we’ll look at Group B–those that, despite strong minor-league SLGs, have been at least vaguely disappointing in the bigs. To populate Group B, I included anyone with a career minor league SLG of at least .490, at least a 10 percent decline in their SLG in the majors (you’ll recall that almost all of today’s elite power hitters posted higher SLGs at the major league level) and at least 1,750 ABs in the majors.
By one measure, the Braves have a 99% chance of winning the East. The Twins aren’t out of the race for the AL Central yet. Travis Lee has actually learned to make himself useful. All this and much more news from Atlanta, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
LAKE HAVASU CITY, Ariz.–It’s hot. I don’t even want to hear that it’s a dry heat. You know what I do in this kind of dry heat? Cook things. I have an appliance in my house that creates plenty of dry heat and works very well for chicken, beef, pork…people shouldn’t be exposed to it. I’m on the annual trip to Lake Havasu, which is more or less the L.A. version of the Jersey shore. There are two types up here: “river people” (referring to the Colorado River, which flows into the lake) and others. I am most definitely others, but come up here every summer with Sophia and a dozen river people and fake it as best I can. I even got a fun column out of it once. Mostly, though, I watch my flesh burn and miss my DSL. And answer e-mail.
Up until this season, my clearest memory of Jose Guillen is as the object of some very unflattering jeering in the right field bleachers at Wrigley Field. The bleacher bums are never kind to opposing outfielders, but Guillen, being young, bad, and foreign, was a particularly vulnerable target. Guillen reacted to the taunts by alternately appearing hopelessly dejected and demonstratively angry, only making matters worse. Though he got his revenge that day–hitting a home run off crowd-favorite/headcase Turk Wendell–I’ve always had trouble watching him play without the phrase Jo-se-do-you-suck! running warbled, drunken, Francis Scott Off-Key through my head.
However cruel, the taunting had proved prescient. Back in 1997, Guillen had time and an abundance of raw talent on his side. Bouncing between four organizations and failing to demonstrate any development, Guillen had regressed to the level of benchwarmer; his career .239 EqA entering the season was below replacement level for a corner outfielder. If not for his powerful right arm (an impressive tool, but overrated in its importance) and his much-tarnished Topps All-Rookie Team trophy, Guillen might have been riding shuttles between Louisville and Chattanooga or selling real estate instead of holding down a fourth outfielder job in the bigs.
This season, of course, Guillen has had the last laugh. Easily the most productive hitter on the Reds this year, Guillen filled in admirably for Ken Griffey Jr. Now traded to the A’s, he’s been charged with the Herculean task of trying to make up for an entire outfield’s worth of mediocrity, salvaging Billy Beane’s reputation as a deadline dealer nonpareil in the process.
But what if Guillen turns back into a pumpkin?
This Sunday I headed down to Safeco Field (“The House That Griffey Built And Left”) to catch a Mariners game, and was treated to some great contrasts. Gil Meche wavered, striking out seven in only five innings, allowing four hits and three walks and taking 116 pitches to do it, of which 68 were strikes. Meanwhile, Mark Buehrle breezed, throwing just a hair over half as many pitches until he unraveled in the 6th inning. Meche was relieved by Rafael Soriano, who’s been so impressive of late I’ve given him my full endorsement. Soriano pitched two innings and struck out five of the next seven batters he faced, allowing only a solo home run–and it took him only 34 pitches, 17 per inning, or five less an inning than Meche. Buehrle was relieved by once-closer Billy Koch, who took 34 pitches to get out of one inning, again bringing up a thought. How many pitches does it take a guy to get an out?
It’s easy to blame airline food for getting sick on a flight, but since most flights don’t get more than a small glass of tomato juice and some peanuts (“WARNING: MAY CONTAIN PEANUTS”), it’s getting to be harder to blame it. For Rich Aurilia, he wishes it were just some bad turkey or clam chowder. After experiencing nausea and pain on the flight home from Cincinnati, Aurilia had surgery Monday to remove his appendix. Aurilia will be out between two and four weeks, depending on his comfort level. For Giants fans, this means–celebrate!–more Neifi Perez!
The Cubs wasted no time in activating Mark Prior, choosing to do so on Monday rather than waiting for the day of his start. There’s no real reason why one might be better than another unless getting Sergio Mitre back to West Tennessee was some priority. Prior was widely expected to be activated and make his first start Tuesday in his home town of San Diego. The only concern at this point with Prior is his stamina. One that bugs me about this situation, though: why do you call up a guy (Mitre), then send him back down two levels?
Ryan Dempster went in to have bone chips removed and came out with a rebuilt elbow. Mind you, it’s not like Dempster woke up to the medical equivalent of a surprise party, but it does have to be little disheartening for both he and the Reds. As unlucky as Ken Griffey Jr. has been, Dempster has been worse, sucking up more than $3 million and showing almost nothing. Meanwhile, the Reds are also dealing with the loss of Jimmy Haynes, perhaps for the season, and looking forward to next year’s rotation of Jose Acevedo, Aaron Harang, Brandon Claussen, one of Danny Graves or Ryan Wagner, and perhaps one more, like Ty Howington, or a free agent signed with Steinbrenner’s petty cash.
Paul Konerko and Carlos Lee have snapped out of slumps to lift the White Sox back into contention. Dan Haren has suddenly emerged as the Cardinals’ number-two starter. Ramon Nivar has turned into a new man for the Rangers. These and other news and notes out of Chicago, St. Louis, and Texas in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
The Astros don’t improve at the trade deadline. Scott Podsednik is making Brewers fans forget about Alex Sanchez. Jose Guillen takes his huge year at the plate to the A’s. All this and more news from Oakland, Milwaukee, and Houston in this edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
I’m not writing tonight. [Editor grumbles and points to contract.] I’m just not. I just got ESPN HD and I’m watching the Giants spank the Reds. I’ve been to Great American Ballpark and I’ve seen the Giants up close, but this is so realistic that I don’t think I’m ever leaving the house. [Editor roughs Will up a bit and reminds him that with his laptop, he can watch and write.]
OK, I guess I AM writing. Still, let me highly recommend high definition TV. Once you see it, you’ll be ruined for regular TV, whether it’s Barry Bonds staring in against Jimmy Haynes or a rerun of The Sopranos. As much as I hate Comcast, I love them for bringing me HD sports, movies, and high-speed internet.
Red Sox players seem happy with their front office; J.P. Ricciardi wishes he had a bigger budget; Mike Hargrove is forced to say goodbye to one of his favorite players; Alex Rodriguez would possibly consider a trade; and Jarrod Washburn thinks won-lost records are overrated for pitchers. All these and many more pontifications in the newest edition of The Week In Quotes.
Apologies for my absence as of late, especially to those adoring fans who actually noticed that I was gone (both of you… Hi Mom! … ah, who’m I kidding, my mom doesn’t read Baseball Prospectus). That said, unlike the majority of AFTH columns, this edition isn’t prompted by a reader question, but rather my own interest in a baseball anomaly.
I’ve been interested in “hitting for the cycle” for some time. Though it’s primarily a novelty achievement (having each of the four specific types of hits), it does represent a an admirable feat. It has happened 79 times between 1972 and 2002 by 74 different batters. Five batters managed to do it twice: George Brett, Cesar Cedeno, Frank White, Bob Watson, and Chris Speier.
The novelty aspect of hitting for a cycle has led to interesting situations, such as whether a batter who already has a double, triple, and home run should stop at first on a would-be double to get his name in the footnotes of baseball history. Clearly, a game with two doubles, a triple and a home run is a more valuable accomplishment than a cycle, and so, while acknowledging the uniqueness of hitting for a cycle, I’d like to introduce a term for having a game at least as good as hitting for the cycle.
Last night, the White Sox moved into a virtual tie with the Royals for first place, waxing the Mariners 12-1 at Safeco while the Royals were getting pounded by the Devil Rays, 9-6. Since July 17, the Sox are 13-1, the Royals 5-9. (For the sake of completeness, the Twins are 9-5 in that time, and stand 3 1/2 games out.) The boys in blue haven’t fallen under .500 yet, but at 57-50, are as close to that mark as they’ve been in weeks.
How did this happen? After beating the Mariners 7-1 in their first game after the break, the Royals had a 7 1/2 game lead in the division. Their edge was eight games over the Sox. While I didn’t think they’d hold on until October, I certainly thought they’d make it to August 11, when they begin a key two-week stretch against the Yankees and the Twins, 13 games I’d pegged as the key to their hopes.
The Royals have been lousy across the board. Over the past 14 games, they’ve have scored 62 runs and allowed 87. While their offense is off by 17%–down from 5.3 runs a game to 4.4–the real collapse has occurred on the mound, where they’re allowing more than six runs a game. [I will now write perhaps the most incongruous sentence of my career.] If not for Jose Lima, who has thrown 10 1/3 innings, struck out nine and allowed just one run in two starts, both Royals wins, they’d be in even worse shape. Jeremy Affeldt (2.13 ERA) and Darrell May (4.22 ERA) have also been reasonably effective. In fact, it’s not the rotation that’s been the problem.
The Expos are benefitting from one of the best trades of the year; the Giants have some youngsters developing in their system; and the Blue Jays will wait another year before beginning their assault on the AL East. All this and much more news from Montreal, San Francisco, and Toronto in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Alex Rodriguez is one of the best players in baseball. He’s also the best compensated. He left Seattle as a free agent to sign a deal with Texas that’s been so widely reported as 10 years and $252 million that it feels futile to protest. As a result, he’s become a pariah of greed. This week, Alex made some comments to the press about maybe, possibly, wanting to be traded from Texas. “If the Rangers found they could be better off without me, whether now or a year or two down the road,” he said, “I’d be willing to sit down and talk.”
Today, as I write this column, I see he’s quickly backed off his comments, trying to calm everyone down.
Frankly, I find this ridiculous. Rodriguez is not a greedy player with a heart made of coal. Articles written about him and his alleged self-indulgence at the expense of his team–calling for him to volunteer for a pay cut and what not–are bitter pieces written by the envious, looking for an easy column in which they can act holier-than-Alex and decry the money-grubbing nature of athletes all at the same time. Have any of these columnists been offered three times their current salary to work in a comparable situation, giving them the ability to fund all of their favorite charities and live comfortably and provide for their children?
I didn’t think so.
Well, the deadline has passed, and it looks like Chris Kahrl has his work cut out for him with all the deals that happened. As I worked the phones yesterday (and had my phone worked), the interesting stories weren’t the trades that got made, but the ones that didn’t for whatever reason. There were some big names and big teams that were working hard, while others did almost nothing to improve their team for the stretch drive.
It occurred to me as I watched Jayson Stark working his phone and ESPN breaking down all the deals that baseball has managed to do what the other sports have given up–they can make deals that for the most part are based on talent and need, not the calculus of a salary cap. As big as I think draft coverage could be, I think Deadline Day could be even better. Heck, let’s rent out an arena, stick all the owners and GMs in one room, and see what happens. I’d watch that, and I have a feeling a lot of you would as well. “Oh no! Billy Beane has pulled out the hypno-rod and it looks like Kenny Williams is giving him a reliever!” or “Has anyone seen Brian Cashman?” could become great quotes from that show.
Alex Rodriguez, who might as well have the number 252 tattooed on his face a la Mike Tyson, inspired a media circus this week by suggesting he would accept a trade if the Rangers believed it to be in the best interest of the franchise. This was immediately misinterpreted as a request to leave Arlington, and brought out the same yahoos who are going to follow Rodriguez around for the rest of his career, criticizing anything he does short of tossing 225 innings with a 3.10 ERA for the Rangers.
But let’s put aside for a second whether or not it makes sense for the Rangers to make a deal that moves Rodriguez. Let’s similarly put aside any ridiculous, ill-informed tripe that suggests Rodriguez isn’t a team guy, or that “winning obviously wasn’t a priority” when he signed with Texas in 2001. Let’s ignore that the Rangers have done an impressive job of blowing money down the toilet on a number of other players with a heck of a lot less return. And for this exercise, let’s not even admit that the Rangers develop pitchers about as often as TV producers improve a show while it’s “on hiatus.”