Well, it’s that time of year again–the time for Baseball Prospectus authors to emerge from out of their respective caves, and provide readers with further evidence that they know absolutely nothing about this game they call “base ball.” In other words, it’s time for the annual set of Preseason Predictions.
For this survey, 13 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff submitted their predictions in time for publication, covering–among other things–divisional standings, postseason standings, and end-of-season awards. Later this week, a Roundtable discussion will run in this space, discussing the predictions seen below, and probably a bunch of other topics as well. Enjoy.
First, I want to apologize for the long absence of AFTH from the web site. In addition to the usual off-season book-writing duties, I spent the winter relocating to the east coast from California as well as welcoming a new baby to the family. But I’m getting settled now, and hope to be writing AFTH and doing other research again in between feedings and diaper changes.
Will Carroll covers Eli Marrero’s suspicious acid indigestion diagnosis, Scott Elarton’s long road back, and enough Angels bumps and bruises to worry even the most rabid Rally Monkey fans (look for the bite marks).
People sometimes ask Prospectus writers what we’d do if we had $500 million, and they’re surprised when we say we wouldn’t buy a baseball team. Gary would become a scratch golfer. Jonah would build his dream house, with a gigantic rotating wheel he could run in that would power the neighborhood. I may be one of only a few who’d actually try and buy a baseball team.
Continuing his series of articles from Spring Training in Arizona, BP correspondent Craig Elsten sat down recently with Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Brooks Kieschnick. There they discussed the frustration of being sent down to the minors, the transition from college, and what it takes to be successful on both sides of the ball.
As we get closer to Opening Day, injuries are starting to take on more importance. Missing one or two games in Spring Training might mean nothing or it might mean a lost opportunity to win a job. It could mean that a retro trip to the List is about to happen or it could be the start of a cursed season. Each day, each injury is just part of the amazing journey that is any baseball season. If this spring is any indication, we’re in for one heck of a journey.
The Snakes throw excessive money at a good citizen–again. The Orioles use an injury as the latest excuse to screw with John Stephens. The Tigers’ pitching staff could be scary bad. And the Jays need health on their side if they’re to benefit from the Wells and Hinske signings.
What happens when Nate Silver’s PECOTA system joins forces with Jonah Keri’s boundless energy and Will Carroll’s injury encyclopedia? You get a killer roto team…maybe. Read on to see how BP fared at this year’s Tout Wars National League draft.
Commissioner Bud Selig recently extolled Major League Baseball’s place in the daily lives of millions of fans. This public affection for the game came just a day after the public finally learned the extent of MLB’s cold-blooded plot to take the game away from many of those fans.
Last spring, MLB settled its lawsuit with the Minnesota Twins’ landlord within days after being ordered to produce sensitive internal documents relating to contraction. Some of these documents have now been leaked to the press. As this Newsday article, and others like it, show, just months after MLB’s hand-picked Blue Ribbon Economic Panel had concluded that contraction was unnecessary, high-ranking MLB executives had begun a yearlong process of identifying which teams should be killed.
It’s not often that someone finds the answer to a question that we’ve been asking for years, but during today’s BPR taping, Mat Olkin hit me with a thunderbolt. Through the always amazing Retrosheet and the work of David Smith, Mat was able to find something back in 2001–pitch counts for the late 1940s and 1950s. It’s often an argument of the old school that most pitchers of that era threw more innings and completed more games. The argument goes that pitchers today are by extension being babied. Mat pointed out that pitchers were much more efficient–to the tune of completing games with 110 pitches.
Fresh off PECOTA’s maiden voyage into rotoland, Nate Silver publishes the PECOTA-generated roto values used by the BP team at the recent Tout Wars National League draft. Hint: pay the premium for studs.
After using PECOTA-generated roto values at the recent Tout Wars National League draft, Nate Silver runs the numbers to produce values for the AL. Hint: as in the NL, pay the premium for studs. And do everything you can to get Pedro.
I love prediction season. Right now, every sports media outlet in the country is running endless NCAA brackets, bracket-picking advice, and studies of past bracket upset patterns–and while I’ll take it, I’m still scouring baseball pages to see what writer was foolish enough to put his name to the fortunes of only 30 teams, predicting the outcome of the 2003 baseball season. We do it every year here at Prospectus, and getting my predictions is like trying to get me out of the bar before I’ve finished my beer.
PEORIA, AZ–If President Bush truly intends to eliminate weapons of mass destruction, he might want to start with what I’m looking at right now. It is a golden brown, sugar covered, cream-loaded agent of evil; a Twinkie covered in batter, skewered on a stick, and tossed into the fry vat like a corn dog. If I had met this when I was six or seven years old, Jerry Springer would be lifting me out of my bed with a crane. Next to the Twinkie on the grease-soaked paper plate are the smart bombs of the deep-fry arsenal, the Oreos. Together, they are the talk of the concourse on this sunny day at the Peoria Sports Complex, moments prior to the Padres game against Milwaukee.
Joe Sheehan begins his divisional previews series with a stroll through the AL West. Will Erubiel Durazo stay healthy long enough to push the A’s offense to the top of the league? Can Chan Ho Park and company ratchet up last year’s miserable pitching staff? Will the Angels’ put-everything-in-play hitting approach bring the Rally Monkey back for another October engagement? And can Mike Cameron break out and give the M’s offense a badly-needed lift?
Sheldon Ocker shares tidbits on the Indians’ third base job and spars with Will Carroll over pitch counts, St. Louis may soon need Dane Iorg to plug its outfield holes, Kaz Sasaki enjoys self-flagellation, and Will reminds Kevin Brown supporters not to get their hopes up.