I predict that the Marlins will be a great value bet. They can’t be that big an underdog to win four out of seven games from this Yankee team. They’ve been outplaying the Yankees for four months, and other than the bullpen situation, they match up well with the Bombers. Whatever the odds end up being, they’ll be way out of line.
I also predict that whichever teams gets to three wins, with a three-run lead and one out in the eighth inning, is just asking for trouble.
This is a much closer series than the reputations of the two teams would have you believe. It’s tempting to pick the Marlins just on the basis of the edge they have hitting the ball into the Yankee defense’s holes. That’s worth a lot of runs, and more to a team that goes first-to-third and second-to-home a lot.
However, the Yankees, unlike the Giants and Cubs, are almost certain to not lose a game they lead in the seventh inning. Nelson and Rivera are going to shorten these games to six-inning affairs. The Marlins’ great postseason has been built on overcoming bad starts and beating opposition bullpens. That’s not going to work this time.
Jack McKeon knew that he had to play Game Seven like there was no tomorrow, throwing Brad Penny and Josh Beckett on short rest, while Dontrelle Willis was in the bullpen warming up, at one stage, after pitching in Game Six. It’s one thing to play like there’s no tomorrow, but it does make things a bit awkward when tomorrow comes. The Marlins enter the World Series with two off days, giving the likely start to Dontrelle Willis, both on match up and on account of the fact he’s about the only one that will be ready to go. I’ll have more on this in tomorrow’s Series Health Report.
Johan Santana had his expected scope of his elbow, and the results are about as good as could be expected. While you never want your young ace pitcher getting cut, it was a scope-job, and only one chip was found. Santana could be back throwing inside of a month and will certainly have no ill effects by spring training.
Despite the suggestion of his manager, Larry Walker isn’t going to retire. Instead, he’s having his annual tune up–this time, it was a cleanup in his shoulder and minor knee surgery to clean up the cartilage. As usual, Walker will be ready for spring training, but it’s just a matter of time before he’s injured again–the only question is how effective he’ll be in between those inevitable injuries.
Is Yankee Stadium haunted?
Experts differ. Or, they might, if they had anything to say about it at all. Realistically, ghosts don’t exist any more than the alignment of the stars affects the outcome of our lives. But respectable newspapers still run horoscopes, so what do I know? Maybe Yankee Stadium is haunted.
Today, construction of any monument of significance requires an archeological survey to make sure you’re not building it on top of an ancient settlement of death-worshipping cultists. But Yankee Stadium was originally opened in 1923, when such practices were not attempted; and when it was remodeled in the mid-’70s, the stadium was torn down entirely. So it’s possible that because the site was unchanged, no new survey was undertaken.
However, a brief search of the literature produces no accounts of supernatural activity of any kind at Yankee Stadium. Even the paranormal camp, who can usually be relied upon to come up with something harebrained about anything, didn’t have any quotes for me. I’d have called them up and asked, but I didn’t want to give anyone ideas.
A lot has happened since last we met. I’ve completed my residency, started a new job, passed my boards, and moved to Chicago. Which, given my proven attraction to lost causes, meant that it was only a matter of time before I became a Cubs fan.
My allegiance to this team may only be three months old, spanning less than 0.5% of the time since their last World Series appearance. But thanks to Dusty Baker, my patience is already wearing thin.
After a Game Seven performance that would make Jim Frey look like a tactical genius, the hope here is that a couple chinks may be starting to form on Baker’s Teflon coating. His failings are well-covered, here and elsewhere, but indulge me in this quick synopsis nonetheless.
If the last three weeks have taught us anything, it’s that the baseball postseason is the greatest sports theatre in the world. We’ve seen almost every form of drama the game can provide, from game-winning home runs to stunning pitching duels to comebacks from one foot, two hands and most of a head in the grave.
Yesterday, we saw the Red Sox jump out to a 4-1 lead against a pitcher they shouldn’t hit, then watched that edge disappear a half-hour later. On the road, deep into the recesses of their pitching staff, fighting wind and cold and history, the Sox could have called it a season and no one would have been surprised. They didn’t, and thanks to some help from the twin weaknesses of the Yankees–defense and every non-cyborg reliever–they’ll get the Game Seven they came to New York to play.
The Cubs, who could have curled up and died when Miguel Cabrera put them down 3-0 in the first inning, battled back to tie the game and then take the lead. I don’t care that they lost: a team that lacks some blessed intangible doesn’t even get that far, not after the events of Tuesday night.
The Marlins weren’t supposed to contend, weren’t supposed to win the Wild Card, weren’t supposed to beat the Giants, weren’t supposed to even come back to Chicago after being down 3-1 Saturday night… and their biggest problem this morning is that they’ll have to wait until tonight to make their flight plans for the World Series. Well, that and finding a good hangover cure.
If you’re reading this column, the idea that the Yankees are stricken with defensive inadequacies probably won’t elicit anything in the way of a guffaw or spit-take. That’s to say, it hardly qualifies as breaking news. As James Click pointed out in his recent piece on Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings, the Yankees had one of the worst team defenses in baseball this season. And most of the blame lies up the middle.
Derek Jeter’s range at short calls to mind an on-duty piano hauler simultaneously encumbered with the dual burdens of Job and Frodo. In center, Bernie Williams’ routes on fly balls reminds one of the stock-price chart of some high-beta outfit from the semi-conductor sector. And, as he demonstrated in the ALDS, Williams has the throwing arm of your garden-variety French intellectual.
I’m done making cheap jokes, but I will add that Alfonso Soriano at the keystone is as erratic as Peter Buck after a bottle-and-a-half of airline Chardonnay. OK, now I’m really done… Except to say that sneaking a base hit through the middle against the Yankees is easier than beating Vin Diesel at Trivial Pursuit. Moving along…
Mark Grace steps out of the clubhouse and into the broadcast booth. Ron Gardenhire is offered a two-year extension. Barry Larkin continues his tenure in Cincinnati. Mike Lowell is activated for the playoffs. And the Pirates aquire Cory Stewart to complete the Brian Giles trade. All this and much more news from around the league in the most recent edition of Transaction Analysis.
Lately, I’ve been doing my writing late at night, with the day’s games fresh in my head. For this one, though, I had to put a night of sleep between me and what transpired. I’ve seen a lot of baseball in my 32 years, but the way last night’s game turned was as sudden and as shocking as anything I’ve ever seen in baseball.
I could point to Game Six of last year’s World Series, or Game Four of the 1996 Series, but those comebacks happened over a period of innings. Game Six in 1986 might be the best parallel. Just like the Red Sox, the Cubs went from a few outs away from the World Series to dead in the water in just a few minutes, and I never saw it coming. Heck, as I look over my notes, there’s this gem:
It would appear I was wrong about Mark Prior.
I was. For six innings, Prior was the same awesome pitcher he’d been since coming off the disabled list in July, workload be damned. His command was a little off at times, but he wasn’t giving up solid contact, and his velocity was good. There was some degradation in both areas beginning in the seventh inning, and that would become important in the eighth, but I had no idea it would lead to what we saw.
If you were a Yankee fan looking for a sign that Game Four was going to go differently than Game One did, Alfonso Soriano leading it off with a walk wasn’t a bad one. Unfortunately, Soriano’s was just about the last good plate appearance the Yankees had all game. As in Game One–and for that matter, as in most games this postseason–the Yankees treated their outs like the mashed potatoes at a Vegas buffet: eat all you want, someone will refill the tray. There was no refill, though; 27 outs later, the Red Sox had tied the ALCS at two games apiece.
This isn’t the same team that scored 877 runs during the season. The Yankees are drawing about one fewer walk per game, which doesn’t mean much in a four-game sample. The quality of their at-bats has fallen through the floor, however. With the exception of Bernie Williams, Yankee hitters have been jumping at the ball the whole series. They’re exhibiting no patience, especially with runners on base, throwing away at-bat after at-bat after at-bat. Look at the way they’re swinging: they’re out in front of everything and trying to hit every ball out of the park. It’s exactly the opposite of how they got here in the first place.
Right now, the Red Sox are playing better baseball than the Yankees are. They’re hitting for power and their pitchers are exploiting the Yankees’ sudden need to be the Cubs. The Sox won last night’s game not with the sacred little things, but with the big things: home runs, good starting pitching, dominant relief.
Milton Bradley was among the best CFs in the league this season, despite persistent rumors about his bad attitude. The Dodgers finally are let loose from coporate ownership. And the Mariners are just beginning their search for a new GM. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Seattle in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
What’s a guy got to do to get suspended?
Seriously, I want to know. In the wake of the weird events of Game Three of the ALCS, MLB brought the gag inflatable hammer down. On Sunday, the Associated Press reported that Pedro Martinez was fined $50,000, Manny Ramirez $25,000, Karim Garcia $10,000, and Don Zimmer $5,000. There wasn’t a single suspension handed down, not even for a few days next season, or during spring training; nothing at all.
Don Zimmer can charge the starting pitcher, forcing Martinez to spill Zimmer, and the old guy’s fine is $5,000? George Steinbrenner is going to go insane: for those prices, he can have everyone on the roster go after Derek Lowe if he comes out in the first inning tonight throwing unhittable stuff. If it works, the team gets a shot at the middle relief; if it doesn’t, maybe Lowe is rattled. Either way, the total fines will be something the Yankees can pay out of petty cash.
Don Zimmer is embarrassed for what happened on Saturday. Joe Torre thinks it was a great example of team play. Larry Bowa speaks in something other than grunts. Pat Gillick sadly steps down. And the Tigers are more than happy to avoid imfamy. All this and many more quips from around the league in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
Is it wrong to have been slightly rooting against my Cubs in Sunday’s Game Five? Not that the Marlins needed my help; Josh Beckett’s Game Score v2.0 of 97 bushwhacked the Cubs, forcing a Game Six that I’m lucky enough to be attending. With Prior on the hill versus a Marlin To Be Named Later (MTBNL), it should be interesting–perhaps one for the ages.
I’m still about 10 days away from unveiling the plan to celebrate the World Series that John Goalder and I hatched back in our college days, helped by malt beverage products o’ plenty. I’ll just tell you it involves 30,000 cheering fans, 100 railroad ties, 225 feet of rolled steel, and the Sears Tower.
So onto the injuries before…
I know Don Zimmer has become this cuddly-cute baseball icon, especially in New York, but the man ran across the field and took a swing at the opposing starting pitcher. Martinez, in an impossible situation with a 72-year-old man bearing down on him, did the best he could to deflect Zimmer’s blow without taking aggressive action. Unfortunately for Martinez, he pushed Zimmer to the ground in the process, which made him look like a bully.
Of all the inexcuable behavior that occurred Saturday afternoon, Zimmer’s actions were the most out of line. The Yankees’ milked the situation by having Zimmer taken to the hospital in an ambulance. I know they said he was dizzy and had a pulled muscle, but it looked for all the world like a publicity stunt designed to make Martinez and the Red Sox look as bad as possible.
I’m not excusing anyone, but take the individual names off of the page and just describe what happened: a coach ran across the field and tried to punch the other team’s starting pitcher. Just because the coach has been in baseball since before chewing tobacco and the pitcher was a jerk who might well have deserved to be decked doesn’t change the fundamental fact that the act was so far out of line as to be absurd. The situation could have been so much worse; it’s entirely possible that Martinez could have hurt himself dodging the blow, in which case you would have had the Sox’ ace taken out of the game by the Yankees’ bench coach.
In a game that could have been lost many times, Dusty Baker did all the right things to win.
That line may not ring true, given how strenuously I criticized Baker in Thursday’s column and in a number of others this year. All of those criticisms still hold, which doesn’t change the fact that Baker made the right decisions Friday to help the Cubs take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS.
The biggest thing Baker did was use his best pitchers in the biggest situations. In the 11th inning, nursing a one-run lead, Baker rode Mike Remlinger through a series of Marlin hitters who hammer left-handers rather than go to the inferior right-handers left in his pen. Baker not only correctly overrode platoon considerations, but left the closer myth behind as well, choosing the guy with one save in three years ahead of former closers Antonio Alfonseca and Dave Veres.
BP: You’ve been the Padres GM for nine years, and you got your start in scouting. How have some of the scouting and player evaluation principles in the organization changed over the years? Towers: I think it’s cyclical. Between ’96 and ’98, we drafted younger players; we felt there was time to develop them. Bill Gayton came on board (as the new head of scouting), and we said then that we had to improve the system. We got too high school-happy in the mid-90s–it takes high school players a long time to develop. We also drafted pitching heavily in the early and mid-90s. It got pretty slim when it came to positional prospects after a while. We’ve switched the emphasis to position players, preferably college ones, where we feel we’ll get more of an immediate return. More clubs are now going the college route, doing what Oakland’s done, what Toronto’s done, what we’ve done–everybody’s starting to jump on the bandwagon. We may end up going back to high school kids after a while. In the next couple of years if we see heavy drafting of college players, we might then be able to land a Cole Hamels. When more and more clubs are doing the same thing, you’re going to have less to pick from among college players, so you might be able to get those kinds of pretty good bargains with high school talent. As far as our timing goes, we’re going to go with fewer younger players at the big league level, so we may use some college-drafted players and prospects to make trades, as we did this year to get Giles. In that sense, it’s more of a Giants philosophy. Hopefully we’ll have a run of four or five years where we don’t need many new, young players making major contributions, where we’re able to keep our core players on field. We could then use the added revenue from the new park more to sign players and use some of our drafted talent to trade for plugging holes.