Prospectus Triple Play breaks down the effects of the Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett trades in Chicago, looks at St. Louis and teams past with five All-Stars and pedestrian records, and examines the trade market for Texas and Rafael Palmeiro.
At some point, you just have to laugh.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are fading into oblivion, unable to put together much in the way of an inning, never mind an entire game. They’ve scored 14 runs in their last eight contests, or as many as the Diamondbacks tallied in the last five innings of their win on Monday night. They might not reach 300 runs by the All-Star break, a feat I didn’t think was possible in the modern era of late-March starts and league RAs in the mid-4.00s, and they’re on pace to be the first NL team since 1993 to not score 600 runs.
I’ve watched almost every inning of Dodger baseball in July, and I have to say, I deserve something for that. For the past week, the Dodgers have been just as bad as the Tigers–who might be The Worst Team in 40 Years–were back in April…
Allen Barra has written for numerous publications since the late-1970s, including The Village Voice, The Wall Street Journal, and currently The New York Times. In 2002, Barra authored Clearing the Bases: The Greatest Baseball Debates of the Last Century, which took a refreshing look at some of baseball’s most argued topics. Recently, BP correspondent Alex Belth caught up with Barra to discuss his early days as a writer, the influence of Bill James on his work, and Major League Baseball’s marketing department.
The All-Star teams were named yesterday, announced all at once as part of the new system of choosing the teams in which the players select about half the roster.
It makes for a different kind of analysis, because where in the past the disputes were with the managers and league offices, those entities have been reduced to little more than the job of filling token slots for bad teams and replacing injured players.
No, the interesting picks this year were by the players, who in their first contribution to the process in my lifetime proved themselves to be short-sighted as to the definition of “All-Star” as the people outside the game.
Let’s start from the beginning.
Kenny Williams doesn’t want the Sox to become “Prospects ‘R Us.” Roberto Alomar could use a lesson in MLB Standings. Mike Mussina got his All-Star vote right. Eric Chavez and Miguel Tejada may get taken back to the factory for Re-Neducation. These and other quips in The Week In Quotes.
The normal goal of any rehab start is to get through it without injury, shake off some of the rust, and make another step towards an effective return to the major leagues. In other words, remain healthy. Randy Johnson met every goal in his first rehab start on Saturday, going four perfect innings on 44 pitches. Johnson will make two more starts with Tucscon, each with an increased pitch limit, before returning to the D’back rotation.
Curt Schilling is just ahead of Johnson’s timetable, making one more start in Tucscon, then getting in a start for Arizona just before the ASB. That this start will likely come against the division-leading Giants says a lot about the confidence the organization has in Schilling. Schilling’s rehab start may not have been as dominant, but is was equally as successful and has to not only bother the Giants and the fading-fast Dodgers as well. Danny Bautista and Junior Spivey are also getting closer and the Diamondbacks are beginning to look like the team Joe Garagiola had in his head when the season began…or perhaps he has one more move to make.
The Expos are once again discussing the timetable for Vladimir Guerrero as early August, but the crew in Miami working on Vlad is much more encouraged. I’ll wager that this is just the Expos hedging against a setback, but let’s remember that getting Guerrero back before the non-waiver trading deadline could be important. Lots of teams will be inquiring, even if the Expos say they’re not selling. With Minaya a leading candidate for the Mets GM slot and MLB owning the team, who would stop a deal like that?
Making up for July 4, today’s Prospectus Triple Play is actually a Prospectus Six Pack. The Astros have done a good job of making up for Roy Oswalt’s absence. The Brewers have a beef with Questec. The Expos can rival the Diamondbacks for team heaviest hit by injuries. The A’s need a bat to complement Erubiel Durazo. The Giants have opened up their lead in the NL West thanks to Jerome Williams and friends. The Blue Jays’ Greg Myers deserves an Al-Star berth. These and other news and notes out of Houston, Milwaukee, Montreal, Oakland, San Francisco, and Toronto in today’s Double Stuft PTP.
The news that Randy Johnson had a setback during his rehab is a bit overblown. Jim Duquette seemed surprised by the reports that Mike Piazza was throwing from a crouch. Eric Chavez had X-rays on his foot Wednesday that came back negative. Trevor Hoffman is playing catch. The Pirates are using Brian Giles in CF. Craig Counsell is close to a return after missing much of the season with a thumb injury. Bad news for Luke Prokopec and his comeback. Will Carroll has all the injury news in today’s Under The Knife.
Kenny Williams’ trades for Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett enhance an improving resume, while D’Angelo Jimenez is becoming the new Bruce Chen. Joe Sheehan takes a look at the White Sox moves in Prospectus Today.
The Rainiers announced on June 27th that “Fun Entertainment LLC” (formerly Unsmiling Consolidated Industries AG, incorporated in Dusseldorf, Germany) signed a letter of intent to buy the team from owner George Foster, who’s been trying to get rid of them for years. While the team is tied to a lease through 2005, Cheney stadium is pretty run-down and the owner has been fighting for years for wide-ranging improvements. If the new ownership doesn’t get a sweet deal, they’ll start looking for places to move. Tacoma’s a beautiful industrial town, as much as any city has personality in modern times, where strip malls with the same stores and the vast parking lots of Wal Mart determine as much local geography as the character of the region a hundred years ago. Tacoma’s also poorer than Seattle, and with the whole northwest economy in shambles and Boeing self-destructing, it’s going to be hard for the city to come up with a couple million dollars to support minor-league baseball, and it’s even more unlikely the state would help.
Jeff DaVanon is having the 150 at-bats of his life for the Halos; Cubs pitchers are taking their share of abuse (to the surprise of no one); and Eric Munson looks like a legitimate option behind the plate for the Tigers. All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Through Sunday night’s game in Anaheim, the Dodgers had scored an average of 3.46 runs per game, the lowest total in the league. Thing is, they’re allowing even fewer runs–only 3.03 per game. It’s an odd formula, as if concocted from the lovechild of Whitey Herzog and Hal Lanier, but for the most part, it’s been working.
Has the Dodgers performance thus far been historically significant? You bet your Lasorda. Since the end of the deadball era, no team has turned in a performance so out of line with the rest of the league. In the table below, I’ve listed those teams since 1920 whose runs scored plus runs allowed represented the lowest percentage of league average…
the Diamondbacks are back in the race after an amazing run–and yes, they’ve done it without Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Schilling looks like he’ll win the race back, but he may be rushing himself slightly. He’s due for a rehab start on Wednesday and the Snakes think he’ll get in one start in the majors before the ASB. Johnson, as we’ve known, will head to Triple-A one night later with his first MLB start just after the ASB. Johnson made it through his side sessions with a minimum of problems, so things are looking up in the desert. I guess the Rockies read UTK Tuesday and decided they’d better do something with Shawn Chacon. I think they had an idea something was wrong well before reading my column, however. Chacon heads to the DL with an elbow strain, but an MRI ruled out major damage inside his pitching arm. Chacon’s been pitching way over his head, but it stinks to see a guy come back to earth like that. When you look up “cascade” in the dictionary, there should be a picture of J.D. Drew. His knee problems have led to hip and ankle injuries. His hip injury has now caused problems in his surgically repaired right knee. Add in back injuries and a swing he’s had trouble getting on track and you wonder why the Cardinals don’t drop him on the DL and try to get him healthy. Oh, that’s right, it’s far too logical for TLR. We knew Drew would be slow coming back, but it may be 2004 before he’s close to full-go.
BP correspondent Steven Goldman sees the Twins messing with top young players Johan Santana and Bobby Kielty and reflects back on Casey Stengel’s handling and mishandling of young players.
As mentioned in yesterday’s Prospectus Triple Play, the Red Sox’ offense is chugging along rather well; at the half-way mark–they played their 81st game last night–they are on a pace to score 1030 runs, the highest total since the 1936 Yankees. The team is also chasing several other historic numbers. The Red Sox are not doing it via the home run, although their 99 dingers is fourth in the AL and seventh in the majors. And the offense is not being carried by a few monster seasons, only Nomar Garciaparra is having a year worth MVP consideration. They are simply crushing the ball–home runs, triples, and especially doubles–and getting contributions up and down the lineup. With the understanding that the Red Sox are playing in a high-offensive era, that they are playing with a designated hitter, and that a lot of things could happen in the remaining half-season, I thought we could take a look at how their offense stacks up with the better ones in history.
Brad Fullmer’s down in Anaheim, setting back the defending champs just that much more; the Indians are beginning their youth-movement; Mike Sweeney is taking some time off in Kansas City just when the Royals need him most; Brandon Claussen finally makes it back after the long road through surgery; and BP favorite Kevin Young gets shown the door in Pittsburgh. All this and much more news from around the league in your Wednesday edition of Transaction Analysis.