As you’ll recall, last week we took a gander at the minor-league careers of today’s elite pitchers. This time around, it’s the less-than-stellar crowd that gets the once-over.
It’s a group I like to call Group B: all active pitchers who have, as of the end of the 2002 season, pitched at least 500 innings and posted a park-adjusted ERA+ of 95 or less (at least five percent worse than the league average). Just like last time, I’ve attempted to isolate those minor-league innings that are developmental in nature–i.e., not an injury rehab assignment or late-career retread work.
The Angels’ bullpen has been lights out beyond belief; Sammy Sosa has really turned it around; and Dmitri Young was a legitimate All-Star pick, no matter what your friends try to tell you. All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
This column isn’t about Bud. It’s about Tuesday’s USA Today feature, What’s the Problem with Baseball?” and its companion, “Ten Ways to Improve Baseball.” In the same week that USA Today won praise from Time for its journalism, it published a pair of articles which would embarrass a small-town weekly. These articles were built around the results of a Gallup Poll conducted from June 27-29. The complete results of this survey, with historical data for context, are available from the Gallup Web site. Comparing USA Today’s breathless hyping of baseball’s “problems” to the actual data shows how authors Peter Barzilai and John Follaco selectively reported the results that supported their conclusion.
The health of the American League has been, well, average. Teams near the top of their divisions have dealt with injuries more than they’ve avoided or overcome them. As baseball heads into the second half, teams will watch for signs of fatigue, and the interplay between team medical staffs and the field staff becomes key. A trainer spotting bad mechanics, keeping a player from turning a tweak into a tear, or returning a guy ahead of schedule, can be worth a win or two. I grade the teams based on a number of factors: overall health compared to both league and team averages, ability to get players back ahead of schedule, lost time to DL, and effect of injuries on team results. These are not terribly scientific and should not be used for wagering. In no instance am I assigning blame; instead, I merely hope to allow comparison and quantify effect. They’re not worth arguing over.
Watch SportsCenter this time of year, or read the Sunday baseball page–that’s the one with the long list of players sorted by their batting averages–and you’re sure to see plenty of stories about what a wonderful, surprising baseball season this has been. Why, who would have thought that Dontrelle Willis would have been drawing Mark Fidrych comparisons, that the Royals would be 10 games over sea level at the Break, that Melvin Mora would be an MVP candidate, that Esteban Loaiza would be the best arm in the American League? Perhaps there’s some Joe Namath among you, some Nostradamus, some Miss Cleo, but we certainly didn’t.
Rickey’s back. The Dodgers are 49-44, three and a half games out of the Wild Card, but if their pitching were as bad as their offense they’d be the worst team in the majors. Paul Lo Duca (.307/.374/.438, .285 EqA) is having a good year, but when the All-Star catcher looks out at the rest of his team, he sees an offensive wasteland. At first base, Fred McGriff (.249/.318/.430, .261 EqA) was unimpressive before going on the DL. Up the middle, Alex Cora (.240/.281/.319, .213 EqA) and Cesar Izturis (.255/.290/.302, .210 EqA), who have gotten most of the playing time, are a combined black hole. Third baseman Adrian Beltre (.225/.286/.356, .227 EqA) has seen his star come crashing to earth after having once been one of the hottest prospects in the game. In the outfield, Shawn Green (.255/.317/.429, .262 EqA) is underachieving, and none of the combination of Mike Kinkade, Dave Roberts, Jolbert Cabrera, Chad Hermansen and Wilkin Ruan has been exceptional. Brian Jordan (.299/.372/.420, .282 EqA) had been the bets of the bunch, but a severe injury means his season and Dodger career are over. Faced with the option of buying or selling for the stretch run, the Dodgers made their move, trading for Jeromy Burnitz and plucking Rickey Henderson from Newark.
As Fox added about three mph to every pitch in last night’s game, I’m glad that the radar readings don’t count. I’m also glad that the “automatic” closer types are anything but automatic, and that the shiny closer tag really doesn’t make someone any better a pitcher when it counts. I thought that using Keith Foulke as the AL closer just had to burn Kenny Williams’ butt.
I’m most happy, however, that my instincts were wrong and that no one managed to injure themselves. The last thing anyone wants to see in an All-Star Game is one of their heroes leave the game on a stretcher. Despite the best efforts of Bud’s Boys, the All-Star Game was a great exhibition.
Just to reiterate: “This Time it Counts” is a fraudulent notion being shoved down our throats by an administration known for disinformation and a cowed media without the courage to call a spade a spade. I’m not surprised to see Kevin Kennedy sell the idea; after all, he works for Fox, and this is Fox’s baby. I am disappointed to see the ESPN staff climb aboard so willingly. I just wish I’d see one person on television with the temerity to suggest that tying World Series home-field advantage to the All-Star Game is a worthless gimmick, and moreover, point out that the real problem with the All-Star Game is interleague play, a worthless gimmick in and of itself.
The Orioles would do well to sell high on their first-half performers. Charles Johnson and Juan Uribe have been disappointments for the Rockies. The Mets remain in shopping mode after dealing Alomar and Burnitz.
The BP Staff weighs in with their mid-season ballots, showing who they think deserves an MVP, Cy Young Award, and Rookie of the Year.
Bill Mueller has done more than anyone in Boston dared hope. Jose Guillen’s shocking first-half success has helped make up for Felipe Lopez’s struggles in Cinicinnati. Rondell White and Mark Loretta could fetch some intriguing young talent for San Diego before the trade deadline. These and other news notes from the Red Sox, Reds, and Padres in this edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Well, we’ve made it through the Futures Game and Home Run Derby without anyone getting injured. There’s still tomorrow’s game–the one that “counts”–however, and I’m halfway expecting somebody to go all Pete Rose on some catcher. Let’s just hope that the players aren’t buying into the hype as much as the entire Fox network seems to be.
That said, as expected, it was a quiet day on Monday, which gave people more time to check out the archive of Baseball Prospectus Radio and email me. People were equally divided on whether it was good interview with Jim Palmer or a blindside hatchet job. Let me assure you the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and that Mr. Palmer had more than one opportunity to speak for himself, and he declined each opportunity. I’ve given his agent the message that he has an open invitation for a full hour on BPR to discuss the game in whatever format he wishes, so I’ve done all I can to be fair despite my desire to go Paul Teutel on him. Let’s hope he does all he can to educate himself about the game he played so well.
I say this every year, but only because the thought dominates my brain for 72 hours each July: I hate the All-Star break. Two days with no games sandwiched around an exhibition contest. Yuck. Anyway, here are my midseason awards ballots, which missed the deadline to be included in the BP staff balloting by a hair or dozen. If you’re new to this column, welcome to my biases: I favor performance at up-the-middle positions, and I try to strip what a player has done from the context in which he did it as much as I can.
Randall Simon pleads his case; Phil Nevin sounds off against the All-Star Game finally “counting” for something; Barry Bonds tells why he’s not competing in the Home Run Derby this year; and Dontrelle Willis is just happy to be invited. All this and many more quips in the newest edition of The Week In Quotes.
Randy Johnson will have one more rehab start–this time at Class-A (oh, those poor kids)–before returning to Arizona. His knee has been problematic, but not so much that he’s been behind. The plan is to use him normally, but to spot him some extra rest when possible. The D’backs have found that they had more pitching depth than anyone expected, so some creative roster moves will help. Keeping Johnson balanced between useage and health will be a big test for Bob Brenly, Paul Lessard, and Chuck Kniffin. (And no, Curt Schilling’s first start performance has nothing to do with either his injury or Questec. As with Barry Zito, some pitchers just have bad days, weeks, and even years.)
The Brewers have problems all over the diamond as well as up and down the organization, but one of the brighter spots is Ben Sheets. Sheets has been effective, but he’s always had a tender back. Taking a swing in his last start appears to have aggravated his back. He’s in the Miller Park training room getting treatment twice a day and might not make his scheduled Thursday start. It’s not serious yet, but it bears watching for a team with no other options.
Kazuhiro Sasaki is finally off the stairs, has his luggage (or whatever) put away, and he’s back on the mound. While a mini-session in the pen is a long way from a return to closer duties in Seattle, it’s a good first step. Sasaki is still a minimum of three weeks from returning to games and Bob Melvin will continue to drive Derek Zumsteg nuts for the full three weeks.
Over the next two weeks, Prospectus Triple Play will cover the first halves of all 30 teams and look ahead to see what we can expect for the second half. Today, PTP examines the Marlins, Yankees, and Pirates.