I got an e-mail from Yankees.com today imploring me to vote for Hideki Matsui for the final slot on the American League team. First of all, I’m a little shocked that I’m even on the Yankees.com mailing list. Second, I’m even more shocked that the Yankees are actively campaigning to get one of their own onto the squad. How utterly undignified. It’s like those ads movie companies run in the trade publications promoting their pathetic offerings for Academy Awards. “Members of the Academy, for your consideration: Ben Affleck in Gigli…” Campaigning is for dog catchers and county aldermen, not the most successful, storied and–allegedly–classy franchise in American sport.
Perhaps I doth protest too much. After all, the All-Star Game voting and selection is so completely bescrewed that it’s much too late to bring any sanity to the proceedings now. If you would like to take a stab at doing so, however, you wouldn’t be voting for Matsui.
Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro likes picking up Colorado retreads, for whatever reason. The Expos have a number of hitters–including Orlando Cabrera–who could fetch some value on the trade market. And the Mariners, following their excellent pick-up of Jeremy Reed and Miguel Olivo for Freddy Garcia, seem unwilling to part with other usable parts like Jamie Moyer. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Montreal, and Seattle in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
I’ve been trying and I can’t find anyone that has a career path like Phil Nevin’s. He’s gone from first-round pick to first-round bust to journeyman to star to injury-prone in the space of a decade. He’s been traded three times for a collection of warm bodies. Even PECOTA’s comps list can’t find anything quite like Nevin.
He’s down, once again, and headed for surgery. This time, it’s a torn meniscus, the second such surgery he’s had. Nevin should be out until mid-August, but it’s a straightforward procedure. The injury shouldn’t affect his hitting, and Nevin wasn’t exactly tearing up the basepaths anyway, so this shouldn’t change his game upon return. This does give me a chance to point at the attrition and drop rates that PECOTA has for Nevin. If you’re in a keeper league or are Kevin
Towers, take note.
Eric Chavez is not only a fast healer, he appears to be rust-resistant. In his start at Triple-A, Chavez came back with two singles and a
walk. He started at DH, but his fielding isn’t expected to be a problem. The rehab assignment is not expected to be a long one, so Chavez could be back later this week.
McKeon chose Larkin over Bobby Abreu, a reasonable MVP candidate in a world that just gives Barry Bonds the lifetime achievement award. He chose Larkin over J.D. Drew, who’s one of the only reasons to watch the Braves this year. Lyle Overbay appears on a lot of “snubbed” lists, and although I can forgive McKeon for not adding a fourth first baseman or third Brewer, Overbay clearly belongs ahead of Larkin.
As does Beltre. Regardless of whether I’d rather see the veteran I like over
the disappointment I have no attachment to, choosing Barry Larkin over any or
all of these players is a mistake. Based on the established criteria, and even
giving Larkin credit for his long and distinguished career, I can’t see snubbing players like Beltre and Abreu in favor of Larkin.
Still, the All-Star selection process has become a paint-by-numbers one, as the player selections and the various roster requirements fill out the teams without requiring much input from the managers. Maybe we should be thankful to
McKeon for adding some spice to the process.
Billy Wagner isn’t happy that 11-game winner Eric Milton was “snubbed” by Jack McKeon for the NL All-Star squad. Then again, he also doesn’t think ERA should factor into the decision-making process, so whatever. Gary Sheffield wants what may or may not be contractually his. Some current- and former-players talk about pitch counts, and there is shockingly some disagreement on the subject. Mariners president Chuck Armstrong is convinced that women and children care more about bright, shiny objects than on-field success, which is somehow supposed to justify giving Dan Wilson $3.5 million. Billy Beane is mad at Cal St. Fullerton coach George Horton. And Ozzie Guillen hates Wrigley field, and probably kicks puppies in his free time as well (Just kidding!). All this and many more quips in your Tuesday edition of The Week In Quotes.
Biggest Mismatchups (Largest disparity in records with one team over .500 and the other under .500): Minnesota @ Arizona
This is the time I make a confession and beg forgiveness. I come to you with hat in hand, although I don’t really own a hat, so that leads to another confession: I stole the hat in my hand so that I might come to you with hat in hand. In any case, back to my original confession: I picked the Diamondbacks to win the National League West. What was I thinking? I don’t even remember. I think I was trying to be “different.” Most folks were picking the Giants with a few renegades going for broke on a Padres upswing. Another tiny minority had the Dodgers. I guess I took all this in and decided I needed to be iconoclastic. Where did it get me? Coming to you with a stolen hat looking for absolution–that’s where.
Why should the Diamondbacks trade Randy Johnson? Because George Steinbrenner wants them to? What is this madness that has beset baseball wherein a team goes south for a year and is suddenly expected to offload every manjack on the team who has the talent to stick his head above replacement level? Arizona plays in a division built on a sandy loam. The Diamondbacks could very easily reload in the offseason and come back and cop this thing in 2005. Having Randy Johnson still in the fold would certainly help in that regard. In modern baseball it seems, we have come to expect that both babies and bathwater must both be drained to the sea.
The Red Sox take a gamble on Pedro Astacio. Andy Pettitte comes off the DL again for the Astros, while Wade Miller replaces him. The Indians bullpen will give erstwhile closer Bobby Howry a chance. And the Padres engage in some micromanagement that Chris finds absolutely maddening. All this amd much more news from around the league in your Friday edition of Transaction Analysis.
Kyle Lohse got no help last Sunday. The Minnesota starter was fairly effective in his outing against the Brewers, surrendering three runs through 6 2/3 innings, and leaving a bases-loaded, two-out situation for Aaron Fultz to deal with. If Fultz could retire Brady Clark, Lohse would have a Quality Start on his ledger, and the Twins would still be in the game. Instead, Fultz and successor Joe Roa surrendered a single and two walks, the game got out of hand, and Lohse was blamed for three extra runs that he only played a small part in allowing.
A few months ago, I talked about one side of this story–measuring how well relievers handle their inherited runners. But what about the starters? How much can bullpen support distort their numbers during the course of a season or a career? One way of measuring this is to compare the expected outcome of those inherited runners to the actual outcome. For example, those three runners Lohse left for his relievers with two outs would be expected to score 0.7 runs on average. That’s based on this year’s league scoring numbers, as well as the impact the Metrodome has on scoring. Since all three runners actually scored, Lohse’s relievers cost him 2.3 runs for that particular outing. Add those numbers up for a starter, and you have a measure of the season- or career-long bullpen support he received.
For shame, Dayn, for not even mentioning that Altoona’s Jeff Keppinger is the only .400+ hitter in all of Double-A–his nearest competitor (Wright) is a full 40 points BEHIND him.
Granted, we know Keppinger’s not on anyone’s radar as a serious future star, but isn’t the point of selecting players for ‘All-Star’ status supposed to be to reward those having strong performances?
I realize Keppinger doesn’t have a single home run, but not even acknowledging Keppinger as an ‘also-ran’ ignores the fact that he is accomplishing something so far ahead of any of his peers to this point, is certainly an injustice. Give our boy Kepp a little love, would ya?
The play Derek Jeter made diving into the stands was one of the better plays I’ve seen this year. For all his shortcomings defensively, he certainly has a flair for the fantastic. I wondered initially why none of the Yankees fans caught him, but if I saw a big man coming at me in a full sprint, I might dive for cover myself. Jeter hit a chair with his face and some reports say his cheek hit an armrest. The mouse under his eye looked more like something we’d see in a boxing match, but the real worry was the chin. Cut open, Jeter’s chin might have been broken, but x-rays are reportedly negative. The concern now is the possibility of a concussion. The Yankees captain may need a game or two off, but it could have been much worse.
Someone needs to check the post-game spread. A second Yankee, Kevin Brown, was diagnosed with intestinal parasites on Thursday. Brown experienced an unexplained weight loss about a month ago, helping pinpoint the timeframe for the infestation. While it makes for some easy jokes–“Did they eat out in Boston?”–the fact is that even in modern America, this type of infestation isn’t uncommon. Brown, like Jason Giambi, should be cured easily, helping his recovery and stamina. It does not affect his return from the DL at all.
What do you do when you start believing in ghosts?
As I write this, the game has
been over for nearly 12 hours, and I still haven’t found a way to put it into words. Last night’s contest between the Yankees and Red Sox was about as great as regular-season baseball can be, with an ending that would get you laughed out of any fiction contest.
The greatness of our game was on display last night. There were exhibitions of
raw power by a Hall of Fame hitter like Manny Ramirez. There
was a mano-a-mano confrontation, replete with head games and consequences,
between Gary Sheffield and Pedro Martinez. There was jaw-dropping defense, including plays in consecutive innings that will probably be the two best plays anyone makes on a baseball field this
year. There was drama and decision-making, as each manager had to maneuver his
way out of difficult situations. There were 55,000 people hanging on every pitch for nearly four-and-a-half hours.
I’m still catching up from my trip to Massachusetts, the latter part of which was spent without much access to baseball information. Seeing the standings on Tuesday was a bit of a jolt. The Cardinals had a big lead in the NL Central? The Astros are in fifth? The Rangers are in first place? The Giants, too? How long was I gone, anyway?
There are some things I haven’t had much chance to write about, and I’ll get to many of those in a Friday notes column, which I’ll write today while watching something like 13 hours of baseball. Man, I love getaway days.
Today, though, I want to write about the AL Central, or more specifically, the Chicago White Sox. Last night’s 9-6 win over the Minnesota Twins pushed the Sox into sole possession of first place in the Central. The Sox have the best run differential in the division, the best offense in the league, and the most runs scored in MLB. Their pitching staff has been effective, with the fourth-best bullpen in the league supporting a ninth-ranked rotation. Much of the latter ranking is caused by the ineffective revolving door they’ve used in the No. 5 slot. Settling on Jon Rauch might have solved that problem, but the Sox instead chose to acquire Freddy Garcia from the Mariners.
Will Carroll delves deeper into shoulder injuries. Clay Davenport provides a history lesson on pitcher’s mounds. Chris Kahrl takes a closer look at J.T. Snow. All in this edition of From The Mailbag.
The Astros remade their pitching staff in the midst of an important divisional series, all revolving around the move of Wade Miller to the DL. Miller has struggled with shoulder tendinitis for much of the season, but with the return of Andy Pettitte and the demotion of Tim Redding to the pen, the Astros decided to use the ASB to extend Miller’s rest. While the injury isn’t considered serious, Miller hasn’t pitched up to expectations. With the fifth starter slot in flux, and Jimy Williams on the hot seat, the Astros staff will be interesting to watch. Williams used Brad Lidge for a two-inning stint on Wednesday. In the Wrigley press box, there was a split among those who thought it was a move made out of desperation or inspiration.
That whole thing yesterday about Kerry Wood heading to the minors? Well, not so much. Wood will throw a simulated game on Thursday and then the decision will be made on not where, but if he will have a rehab start. There’s still some doubt about where he slots in. Manager Dusty Baker would rather use him against Milwaukee, but the medical staff thinks the St. Louis series is more likely. Either way, there’s finally a solid target for Wood’s return. Wood should be fine once he returns, but his command will be something of an issue. According to Cubs sources, the adjustments made to his delivery may cause problems with his curve. He’s working on a slurve, just in case.
How badly can cute and cuddly players hurt their team? With baseball’s new market, more than ever in recent history. If your local community pillar signs for a charitable $2.5 million, in today’s market, that’s two and a half average outfielders on short-term deals. And if your guy got signed before the market crashed…it may hurt just to think about it.
So I went through looking for guys who are killing their teams. While the Rangers paid laughable service to “flexibility” when talking about trading the hugely productive Alex Rodriguez, it’s true that when teams saddle themselves with giant unproductive contracts, it makes it much harder to build a good team on a necessarily limited budget. So here are the guys who are really grinding down their teams. Bonus points for easily replaceable position players, and guys who have huge, long contracts granted by virtue of being popular.
So who’s out there to form our team?
Stephen Randolph is channeling the spirit of Mitch Williams for the Diamondbacks. The Tigers’ recent draft record has been spotty. Zach Greinke’s looking like an ace for the Royals. These and other news and notes out of Arizona, Detroit and Kansas City in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.