With the trade deadline a bit more than a week away, speculation about who’s
going where and for whom is at its annual peak. It’s a great time to be a
baseball fan, what with more than half the teams in the game harboring at
least some hope of reaching the postseason, and a mix of perennial contenders
and low-profile upstarts chasing playoff spots.
Many of those teams have glaring holes that have to be repaired, and part of
the fun of July is guessing how those holes will be filled. Here are four
trades—not trade rumors, but actual trades, coming from between my ears—that
make sense for contenders and rebuilders alike, and which could change the
course of baseball’s races.
The Braves should be looking to the Big Apple for their toughest competition. The Devil Rays’ plan to sign B.J. Upton is another bad idea. And the Blue Jays have another top pitching prospect. All that, plus much more news from Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Toronto in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Even I, proudly possessed of Southern roots and a Midwestern address, can’t resist writing about the Yankees.
With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline making threatening phone calls from the attic, the Yankees, as they do every year, are hogging the bandwidth. With the Bombers poised to do something of import over the next 10 days, many have been led to ruminate on the farm system that’s about to be gutted–in as much as you can gut something that is already devoid of innards.
The Yankee farm system, at this writing, is devoid of noteworthy prospects in the higher rungs of the system. Dioner Navarro placed 30th on our 2004 Top 50 Prospect List, but a paltry showing this season has dimmed his star. Robinson Cano is the other name bandied about, but he smacks long and hard of pinstriped fool’s gold. If they wind up parting with those two, it’ll be a little like kicking a cadaver in the groin: perhaps unseemly and not the greatest of ideas, but ultimately the cadaver has more systemic issues to fret over.
The Braves get Marcus Giles back, and not a moment too soon. The O’s, meanwhile, get Melvin Mora back, in their grasp for third place. The White Sox re-aquire Carl Everett. The Reds get one step closer to giving Brandon Claussen a shot in the rotation. Justin Morneau gets another chance to take Doug Mientkiewicz’s job. Mike Mussina hits the DL for the Yanks, causing them to rely on the stylings of Alex Graman. And the Mariners continue to execute Operation Clean Sweep. All this and much more news from around the league in your Wednesday edition of Transaction Analysis.
Any time a player changes positions, there is an adjustment period where the new position increases the risk of injury slightly. Most of the time, the risk has a negligible increase. Some shifts down the defensive scale actually inherently reduce risk, such as a move from the middle infield to a corner. It seems that Mike Piazza hit one of those inflection points where a decreased positional risk met the awkward adjustment phase with a side order of bad luck. Piazza was struck on the glove by a running player. While it was a routine play, Piazza sprained his wrist and could end up on the DL. Early X-rays were negative but there was pain and swelling. Mets medical staff will know more tomorrow once the swelling begins to subside and they can accurately assess tendon and ligament damage. In the meantime, phenom David Wright will come up to the big club, with Ty Wigginton moving to first base.
It was mostly good news across town as the Yankees dodged a bullet. Derek Jeter was hit on the hand by a 93-mph pitch, but escaped with only a numb hand. X-rays were negative, but the Yanks will likely give their captain at least a game off to be safe. In Triple-A Columbus, Kevin Brown pitched adequately, giving up five hits and two runs (including a homer by Henri Stanley) in four innings. He’s unlikely to be ready for his slot on Sunday, so expect another start, probably again with Columbus. In the meantime, the Yankees will rack up frequent flyer miles between the Bronx and Columbus while looking for help on the trade market.
I’m fascinated by beginnings and endings, so the chapters in this book that
detail the earliest days of the game, and how the record-keeping developed,
are page-turners for me. The way in which the decisions to track particular
events in a game reflected the personal beliefs of those doing the collecting
was a new concept for me, as was the descriptions of how people 120 years ago
gobbled up statistics the same way rabid seamheads and fantasy players do
today. There are quotes in the first 30 pages of the book that could easily
have shown up on our pages today. For example:
‘The best player in a nine is he who makes the most good plays in a
match’ [Chadwick] wrote, ‘not the one who commits the fewest errors.’ In other
words Chadwick preferred range–the ability to field more balls overall–to
avoiding the occasional error.
Somewhere, Jose Valentin is smiling.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
We got some middling pitching and a pretty good offense, albeit one that’s going to last as long as you’re impression that Jose Uribe is really a good hitter after all. We’ve also got Minnesota’s underwear, not that they’ve noticed, because if you’ve got Doug Mientkiewicz, who needs a G-string? Friends, no matter what Mr. Ryan says, second place chafes, as Mr. Kenny Williams can attest after two straight years of raw inner thighs. Gird your loins with Frank Thomas and his .334 EQA and you need never say, “Not tonight, Josephine, I left my epidermis at the office because I was afraid to let a DH be a DH, a first baseman be a first baseman, I keep trying to get blood from a stone, and no matter how many elephants I interview, none of them can do calculus.” Even Sharon and Arafat agree that Garcia wasn’t quite worth the freight, but credit the Sox with having a pulse. Late note: Thomas is gone, Carl Everett is here, which is kind of like replacing a dinosaur with a guy who doesn’t believe in dinosaurs. Ironically, it’s neither of them that faces extinction, but Joe Borchard. GRADE: A-
Today’s UTK is about burning questions. Emphasis: burning questions, not burning sensations. UTK stands for “Under the Knife,” not “Urinary Tract Konnection.” Lately everyone who writes me has the same questions. Below, I try my best to answer them.
Powered by Discovery HD Theater, on to your questions about the injuries…
I got mad once when Ken Griffey Jr. admitted that he didn’t try for every ball. If his team was far ahead or behind in a game, he wouldn’t try to scale a wall to bring back a home run. It’s almost offensive to a fan to see players not try. I can know that the cost of a ticket’s not that high, historically speaking, and that it might not have any effect on the outcome of a game. It doesn’t matter. I want to see those ground balls run out. Unless the hitter’s injured.
The more I watch games, though, the more I’m convinced Griffey was right. Derek Jeter’s dive into the stands was dramatic and everything else people said about it, but it was also immensely dangerous. How big of a gap is it, really? When the Mariners told Edgar Martinez not to run out ground balls unless it was really important, was that worth it?
The White Sox get hurt by the Hurt’s hurt. The A’s need better luck for Dotel. The Phillies get much-needed bouncebacks from Bell and Burrell. These and other news and notes out of Chicago, Oakland and Philadelphia in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
At press time, the Brewers had been outscored by their opponents by a handful of runs. If they can get through the year like that and still manage to stay over .500, I say, “who cares?’ When you’ve been under .500 for 11 straight years, what does it matter if the string is broken by a season that isn’t aesthetically pleasing?
The Brewskers are getting some nice defense these days. In fact, this series features two teams that are among the best in Defensive Efficiency in the major leagues. This is a good thing for Milwaukee, too, because they are, essentially, a one-man offense this year.
After not getting to a game for the first seven weeks of the season, I’ve been
living at the ballpark since Memorial Day weekend. That continued on Monday night,
as I took in the Angels/Indians game with some of the guys who have been
kicking my butt in AL Tout Wars this
season. Sam Walker of the Wall Street Journal, who is actually working
on a book about fantasy, was in town and dragged me, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire and Matt Berry of Rotoworld down to Anaheim to see the classic
Kaz Tadano/Aaron Sele match-up.
Obviously, I love baseball, and enjoy watching games whenever and wherever I
can. But a night like this one–or like last month, when I got to see an
Angels/Dodgers game with Jonah Keri, Rich Lederer, and Brian Gunn–is hard to beat.
Watching a ball game while talking baseball for three hours with people who
know and love the game might not be heaven, but you get a better view and St.
Peter gets a little bit jealous.
Despite popular belief, the Dodgers are in need of starting pitching. Despite the dominance of Johan Santana, the Twins’ offense has the team sputtering. And is it possible that Jason Schmidt has meant just as much to the Giants’ success as Barry Bonds has? All this and much more news from Los Angeles, Minnesota, and San Francisco in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
According to the team–and confirmed through multiple sources, in order to prove to the many skeptics that there’s no smokescreen–Prior has no problems with his UCL or ulnar nerve. Instead, a bone scan showed an inflammation near the elbow. In essence, Prior has shin splints in his elbow area. The technical term is periostitis, but let’s stick with something we can all say.
Prior will not go to the DL, and based on his lack of soreness Monday after a bullpen session on Sunday, he could start on Tuesday, his regular turn. It’s much more likely that the Cubs will be cautious and let Glendon Rusch take the start. So what does this mean for Prior and the Cubs? I simply don’t know. None of my best sources had seen this type of injury before, and more than one questioned the diagnosis. Simply put, we’re in uncharted territory, and the best guide will be Mark Prior himself. Many are already questioning his toughness, but that’s the same wrong-headed locker room machismo that’s cost the game so many players in the past.
Dear Commissioner Selig:
In the tedious run-up to the recent 75th All-Star game, I noticed you mentioned in passing to reporters that you’re open to the idea of extending your reign as commissioner beyond 2006, when your present term will expire. My hopes that you will not do this are both boundless and without bound.
Listen, I don’t think you’re evil or stupid. On the contrary, I think you’ve been remarkably competent at what you’ve set out to do. I believe, for instance, that you genuinely want to diversify major league front offices. I can quibble with how you’ve gone about doing that, but the intent is a noble one. But other than that, I believe your prevailing vision for Major League Baseball, which you’ve executed with ruthless efficiency, has been thoroughly noxious to a game I can’t seem to live without.
Sure, I’ll admit my biases. Like Michael Moore and Fox News, you know where I stand: Injuries are often the difference maker. Look back to last year, when Oakland would have been a different team with Mark Mulder. Or think of St. Louis a few years ago, when when Scott Rolen’s freak accident killed the Redbirds’ attack. There are a million other examples of games lost because of players lost. After talent, health is the most important asset a team possesses.
Instead of doing full breakdowns on each team–something time and carpal tunnel precludes–I’ll focus on the team’s overall health, as well as key injuries that help determine who holds the health advantage heading down the stretch. I’ll use a grade system, rather than my typical traffic light. The rankings are just my impressions and are purely subjective, based on past and current health, the likelihood of problematic future injuries, and the whimsical nature of my late-night muse. Teams are listed in the order they stood in their divisions at the All-Star Break.