Baseball’s rumor mill got an early kick-start last week when the San Diego Padres reached an agreement to trade ace right-hander Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox.
The news was not welcome for Peavy’s fantasy owners. The 2007 Cy Young award winner had thrived at San Diego’s Petco Park, baseball’s best environment for pitchers. Now Peavy was apparently headed to US Cellular Field, a notorious hitters’ park. Owners in National League-only fantasy leagues faced the prospect of losing Peavy’s services altogether in the event he moved to American League.
That worry, it turned out, was for naught. Peavy chose not to waive his no-trade clause, preferring to remain in San Diego. Meanwhile, Peavy’s fantasy owners began to breathe more easily. For now.
Speculation about possible trades has only just begun. In the weeks before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, the rumor mill will grind on with whispers about deals that could affect both the post-season race and a player’s fantasy value. Each trade has the potential to be a fantasy boom or bust as the player moves on to a league or park with an environment that enhances or reduces his production.
Buyers or sellers?
With nearly a third of the season in the books, each club faces the question: Buy or sell? The Padres, for example, begin play this weekend only three games out of the NL wild card race. But, in the wake of significant payroll cuts and an ownership change, no one expects the Padres to be a buyer.
In a 2006 study calculating the Marginal Economic Value of one additional win, analyst Nate Silver identified a “sweet spot” that exists between 86 and 93 wins because each victory in that range dramatically increases a club’s chances of reaching the playoffs. A post-season appearance, Silver found, could be worth an additional $25 million to a franchise.
According to Clay Davenport‘s ELO-adjusted Playoff Odds Report, 14 clubs project to finish within five wins of the 86-93 range: the Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Reds in the National League and the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Tigers, Twins, Rangers and Angels in the American League.
That leaves 16 clubs in the role of sellers. For these clubs, trade chips usually come in three varieties, depending on a player’s age and contract status: 1) rentals, or players who will be free agents after the 2009 season, 2) high salaries, or players with expensive contracts which their current clubs would like to move off the books, and 3) controllable players, or those players who are still one or more years away from free agency.
So what names are candidates for a trade?
Starting pitchers
The Indians‘ Cliff Lee has rebounded after two rough outings to begin the season. But Cleveland might not be willing to sell anytime soon, given that the AL Central race appears wide open. Houston’s Roy Oswalt might be an attractive target, but, like Peavy, he holds a full no-trade clause.
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Erik Bedard, Seattle, age 30. 2009 salary: $7.75 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Matt Cain, San Francisco. 2009 salary: $2.65 million. Due $4.25 million in 2010, with a 2011 club option which may become guaranteed based on performance.
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Doug Davis, Arizona. 2009 salary: $8.75 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Jon Garland, Arizona. 2009 salary: $6.25 million, with a mutual option for 2010. A club trading for Garland may not offer him arbitration when his contract expires.
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Lee, Cleveland, age 30. 2009 salary: $5.75 million. The Indians hold an $8 million club option for 2010.
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Roy Oswalt, Houston, age 31. 2009 salary: $14 million. Due $33 million for 2010-11. Full no-trade clause.
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Peavy, San Diego, age 28. 2009 salary: $11 million. Due $52 million for 2010-12. Full no-trade clause for 2009-10, with a limited no-trade 2011-12.
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Brad Penny, Boston, age 31. 2009 salary: $5 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Jarrod Washburn, Seattle, age 34. 2009 salary: $10.35 million. Free agent after 2009.
Relievers
Huston Street, averaging 10 strikeouts per nine innings for the Rockies, is the clear top target for a club looking for a closer.
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Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox, age 35. 2009 salary: $6 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Ron Mahay, Kansas City, age 38. 2009 salary: $4 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Street, Colorado, age 25. 2009 salary: $4.5 million. Free agent after 2010.
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Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox, age 32. 2009 salary: $1.325 million, with 2010-11 club options.
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Jose Valverde, Houston, age 29. 2009 salary: $8 million. Free agent after 2009.
First basemen / Designated hitters
San Diego is unlikely to deal All Star Adrian Gonzalez, but with an affordable contract and a batting line of .285/.385/.622, he could bring the Padres a package of premium prospects. The Nationals are likely to find a match for Nick Johnson, who has been healthy and productive.
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Russell Branyan, Seattle, age 33. 2009 salary: $1.4 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Jorge Cantu, Florida, age 27. 2009 salary: $3.5 million. Free agent after 2010.
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Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego, age 27. 2009 salary: $3 million. Due $4.75 million in 2010, with a $5.5 million club option for 2011.
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Todd Helton, Colorado, age 35. 2009 salary: $16.6 million. Due $40.1 million for 2010-11.
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Aubrey Huff, Baltimore, age 32. 2009 salary: $8 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Nick Johnson, Washington, age 30. 2009 salary: $5.5 million. Free agent after 2010.
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Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox, age 33. 2009 salary: $12 million. Due $12 million in 2010. Free agent after 2010. Konerko may block any trade as player with 10 years in majors, five with the same club.
Second basemen
Florida’s Dan Uggla has been to arbitration just once, but he already has become expensive for the small-payroll Marlins. Felipe Lopez‘ affordable salary and line of .323/.380/.485 could be attractive for a team looking for help up the middle.
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Lopez, Arizona, age 29. 2009 salary: $3.5 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh, age 31. 2009 salary: $6.25 million. Club option for 2010 worth $8 million. The option may vest based on performance.
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Uggla, Florida, age 29. 2009 salary: $5.35 million. Free agent after 2011.
Shortstops
Oakland holds two middle infield chips in Orlando Cabrera and the suddenly versatile Bobby Crosby.
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Cabrera, Oakland, age 34. 2009 salary: $4 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Crosby, Oakland, age 29. 2009 salary: $5.25 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Miguel Tejada, Houston, age 35. 2009 salary: $13 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Jack Wilson, Pittsburgh, age 31. 2009 salary: $7.25 million. $8.4 million club option for 2010.
Third basemen
Cleveland’s Mark DeRosa has been linked to the Yankees, Braves and seemingly every club in between. Like the other Indians, his availability hinges on Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro deciding to join the ranks of sellers.
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Garrett Atkins, Colorado, age 29. 2009 salary: $7.05 million. Free agent after 2010.
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Adrian Beltre, Seattle, age 30. 2009 salary: $12 million. Free agent after 2009.
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DeRosa, Cleveland, age 34. 2009 salary: $5.5 million. Free agent after 2009.
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Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego, age 27. 2009 salary: $432,000. Free agent after 2012.
Outfielders
The premium bat on the market is Oakland’s Matt Holliday, though GM Billy Beane has suggested he is willing to keep Holliday and collect two draft picks as compensation when he leaves as a free agent.
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Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox, age 35. 2009 salary: $11.5 million. Mutual option for 2010. A limited no-trade clause allows Dye to block deals to six clubs.
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Jeff Francouer, Atlanta, age 25. 2009 salary: $3.375 million. Free agent after 2011.
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Brad Hawpe, Colorado, age 30. 2009 salary: $5.5 million. Due $7.5 million in 2010, with 2011 club option which Hawpe may void if he is traded.
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Matt Holliday, Oakland, age 29. 2009 salary: $13.5 million. Free agent after 2009
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Austin Kearns, Washington, age 29. 2009 salary: $8 million. Club option for 2010.
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Carlos Lee, Houston, age 33. 2009 salary: $18.5 million. Due $55.5 million for 2010-12. Full no-trade clause.
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Josh Willingham, Washington, age 30. 2009 salary: $2.95 million. Free agent after 2011.
Catchers
Victor Martinez is healthy again, ranking second in the American League with a .438 on-base percentage.
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Martinez, Cleveland, age 30. 2009 salary: $5.7 million. $7 million club option for 2010.
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A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox, age 32. 2009 salary: $6.25 million. Due $6.25 million in 2010. Free agent after 2010.
Thank you for reading
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For me, this wasn't a swing and a miss, it was closer to missing your flight on a road trip. Jeff didn't even show up for the game this week.
I'm not sure if that's so true for fantasy owners (unless they're playing in an NL or AL only league). Aside from league-exclusive fantasy leagues, would you really add or drop anyone based on a trade?
Jeff, I basically stopped reading your submission once you got to the list. For your consideration, I'd suggest that a position-by-position list is useful only when it includes more analysis about the players listed.
Since word-count is a limiting factor for this contest, you might have been better served to focus on one position and then provide a few insights about each of the players listed as possible trade fodder. How's he doing so far fantasy-stat-wise? What impact might a new team and hitting/fielding environment have for him and his fantasy stats? Then end the article by providing a lead in to the position you'll cover in your next article.
How do these potential trades affect fantasy owners? Can we quantify through analysis which players are most likely to be traded? Can use of the Retrosheet trade database show anything useful?
I hate to write this, but I perceived yours as an article without value this week. Your previous work has been better, but votes go week-by-week.
The name dropping also irked me a little.
Why not illustrate the point with an in depth analysis of the situations of two or three players who will be subject to trade rumors in the next two months? Why not discuss potential trades? This is hard to do well, given how many writers already do those sorts of articles. But it presumably would have been better than listing the contracts of most of the players who meet the criteria developed at the beginning.
And this isn't even the main problem. The main problem is that this article doesn't have anything to do with fantasy baseball. If I could, I would vote for this as the worst of the week.
The list of players has salaries, but MLB doesn't have a cap. Yes, it gives an idea of what a receiving team might have to pay, but contending teams are usually willing to pay the rental fee, so the salary data doesn't really eliminate any team from the picture.
On top of that, the guys that are not going to be FA's after this season don't have the cost of the remaining years listed. Does Atkins make 7.05 in 2010? How much is owed to Kousmanoff in '10, '11, '12 ?
This article has too many holes.
This is the third article I've seen with questionable structural issues. Everything after the "So what names are candidates for a trade?" seemed like filler. If that's the case, why not just use a chart? Maybe Jeff's style is more suited to short blogs than full-length articles... and if that's the case, how can I trust he would have the stamina to write a well-researched article and maintain thorough analysis of the topic throughout? Even the parts of it that I had liked, though, really didn't introduce me to anything new or insightful that couldn't have been gleaned from all the Peavy trade rumors that happened over the last year.
However:
It seems too early to be discussing buyers and sellers. Too much can happen between now and mid July, when teams really have to consider committing themselves one way or the other. I appreciate the notion that it is a good idea to get a jump on the rumours, although I missed your making that point explicitly.
I, too, thought the connection to fantasy baseball was weak.
As Richard noted, the list of starting pitchers includes Penny who is on one of the teams in the “sweet spotâ€. That doesn’t make sense – or needs an explanation.
And, yes, I had the same thought as Will that availability of players is often related to plenty of things other than payroll. Some teams will pay more attention to the payroll than others. The analysis here is a bit shallow.
Finally, one nitpick (the rest are major problems), it was discussed on one or more of the entries last week that ending an article with a list is a little abrupt. Some of these post article commentaries have been as interesting as the entries – although some are a bit nasty. You would have caught the objection raised against articles ending in lists if you read them all, although, I admit the quantity of comments was daunting – and I realize you had another article to write. Nonetheless, the article ended with a fizz.
I'm wondering if there's a second half to this piece lying around somewhere...
Playing Devil's Advocate, the one piece that you missed Jeff..... If you would have just added some metrics for the players for this year and their career... you could have put some stats in this.
Example, Branyan's 2009 VORP along with his career VORP. That would at least tell some more of your story for someone who may have been looking at this from a fantasy perspective.
You have my vote. One of my two btw.
And I am not sure how this helps my fantasy team. Knowing Roy Oswalt is a trade target with a no-trade is interesting, but I'm certainly not going to go out and trade for him in my league without knowing A) if he's being traded for sure, or B) where he is going.
It would suck if he accepted a trade to the Toledo Mudhens and my team was negatively impacted.
To me, that seemed to be the clearest indicator that the discussion was no longer about fantasy baseball. I liked the concept about the effect of trades and the potential to forecast them, but I'm not so sure about the execution.
1/4th of the article is an introduction. 1/4th of the article is citing other (BP Authors) work, the last half of the article is a list.
I can get this information elsewhere without paying for a BP subscription. If he added in some analysis, I'd pay for that, but he didn't provide any. Factor in that my fantasy team probably won't have 3/4ths of these players and then factor in that not everyone on this list will be traded, and this information doesn't have much utility, and thus, little value to me. Instead, I'll pay (or vote) to read Clay or Nate's work directly.
Why would I spend time to learn about players trade potential if I find little value in acquiring them for my fantasy team and if those trades don't appear to be happening yet?
I am interested in learning about player contract statuses with as little effort as possible on my part.
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/default.aspx
Glad I could help.
And I was using my time trying to help you out, though in hindsight, Jeff's website itself is a much better resource.
Even there though, it is a compilation of numbers without analysis or interpretation. I mean, the purpose behind the BP idol contest is to find someone who is a analyst/writer/sabremetrician/reporter of some sort and not just a reference manual, right?