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I filled out my All-Star ballot Sunday at Yankee Stadium. For those of you new to this space, allow me to explain. There are two reasons why this piece runs now, in May, rather than closer to the All-Star Game. The lesser reason is that I like to fill out the ballot at the ballpark, during a game, as tradition dictates. I used to fill out a bunch of ballots—all Yankees, favorite players, best players, etc.—and while I no longer do so (I figured out at one point that the votes often canceled each other out), I still prefer to punch the chads at the game, without a laptop or stat sheet in front of me, and if it entails arguing about the picks with a friend the next seat over, all the better.

The second reason stems from that last part. To me, the All-Star Game is for the very best players in baseball, and generally speaking, I don’t need elaborate reams of information to make those choices. This specifically means that the current season’s performance matters less to me than the body of work, and it means less to me than it does to most other people. If you weren’t an All-Star candidate in March, you’re probably not one in May. The six-week hot-streak All-Stars, the Aaron Hills and Russ Branyans and Jason Bartletts… I don’t vote for them.

The primary weakness in this approach is that you can be a year too late on a transition, when young player A has passed veteran B, but it’s not completely clear at the time of the vote. However, that’s a tradeoff I’m willing to make when it means that my ballot consists of the best players in baseball, and not just the best players over the first couple months of any given season. I find that approach to be completely indefensible, and the trend towards it is one of the things that has chipped away at the prestige of the game.

So this is how I filled out my AL ballot:

First Base: Mark Teixeira, Yankees. By splitting his last two seasons between the AL and NL due to deadline trades, Teixeira has given up some perceived ground. In a deep field—Carlos Pena, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau—he has an edge on most due to one of defense, longevity, or OBP. The tough call is with Kevin Youkilis, who was comparable to Teixeira last year and started out this year outplaying him. My sense is that Teixeira is in the midst of a Hall of Very Good peak, whereas Youkilis is having the best seasons in a lesser career, and despite the gap in their value so far, Teixeira remains the superior player.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox. This seems like it would be easier—Pedroia has been nothing but good in his career and was the AL MVP a year ago. Brian Roberts is a very good player, though, and Ian Kinsler has done nothing but hit during his time in the league, and were it not for an injury, would have been more valuable than Pedroia last season, even with Kinsler’s issues defensively. It wasn’t that long ago that this spot was a wasteland; now it’s deep.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Yankees. Something of a compromise pick, and if you want to make an argument for someone else, I’ll listen, as long as “someone else” isn’t Marco Scutaro. Orlando Cabrera is the next guy on the list, and I guess there’s an argument for Jason Bartlett that’s half defensive value and half great 2009 stats. When in doubt, I’ll vote for the guy who might end up as the first unanimous Hall of Fame selection. In contrast to the field at second base, this isn’t a strong group to pick from.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees. The missed month doesn’t mean much in the context of his body of work, and it’s silly to not vote for the second- or third-best player in baseball, depending on how you rate Johan Santana, as an All-Star. Evan Longoria is the heir apparent to this slot, and it could be a while before he starts an All-Star Game. Just the difference in home attendance alone is going to be tough for him to overcome.

Catcher: This is an easy one, as Joe Mauer is head and shoulders above the pack, even with a nod to a healthy Victor Martinez.

Outfield: Nick Markakis, Orioles; Grady Sizemore, Indians; Torii Hunter, Angels. One of these things is not like the others… one of these things just doesn’t belong. Markakis and Sizemore were easy calls, the two best outfielders in the league even if Sizemore is off to a subpar start. Markakis doesn’t get nearly enough press, reminiscent of Carlos Beltran when Beltran was starting his career in Kansas City, except that Markakis hasn’t had the performance valences Beltran experienced—it’s just all good stuff.

The third spot… look, I went over this and over this and over this, and what I came to is that the gap between the third- and 11th-best outfielder in the AL is tiny. I almost voted for Adam Jones, who I like in a creepy kind of way. I looked at Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, J.D. Drew, Curtis Granderson, Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, and B.J. Upton; all had some kind of problem with their candidacy. In the end, I went with Hunter because he had the fewest black marks. I hated the contract the Angels signed him to, but he’s played well under it. Honestly, if you picked Drew, Bay, Granderson, or Hamilton, I’d have no objection.

I blame B.J. Upton for this problem. If he’d played to expectations, none of this would have been necessary.

On Friday, I’ll turn to the National League.

As I write this, we’re still waiting to hear whether or not Jake Peavy will waive his no-trade clause and join the Chicago White Sox. Frankly, I don’t know what to make of this; my initial reactions were that adding a starting pitcher to the White Sox doesn’t really address their offensive problems, and that I didn’t think the Sox had the prospects to bring in a Peavy. It’s entirely possible that I’m underrating Aaron Poreda—who I do like—but a deal centered on Poreda and Sox prospects who aren’t Gordon Beckham doesn’t seem like enough. I guess if Tyler Flowers is in the deal, I’d like it; if it’s Poreda and Clayton Richard and two other guys… it doesn’t make sense for a Padres organization that desperately needs position players.

We’ll have more on this on BaseballProspectus.com as it develops, and I’ll take questions in my chat session this afternoon as well.

Thank you for reading

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tribe24
5/21
It's clear you're doing your ballet based on career achievements and not on 2009 stats and/or performance. Which is fine, I suppose.

I've always thought the annual All-Star teams should be just that, based upon the performance of a certain player for the current year. That's why I disagree with Pedroia over Kinsler, A-Rod over Longoria, and Sizemore even sniffing the top 3.

To each his own, I guess...
DrDave
5/21
The problem with this is that there isn't any "current year" to base things on; there's a "current month".

...unless you're talking about basing your vote on what players have done since *last* May, which is a defensible concept but really awkward to evaluate.

I used to worry about who was most deserving, and what the most defensible criteria for selection were. I gave up some years ago, and now I vote for the players I most want to watch play. In a given year, that's a mix of all-time greats (A-Rod, Pujols), intriguing young players (Kinsler, Adam Jones), entertaining players to watch (Jose Reyes, Ozzie Smith back in the day), and sheer competence (Chase Utley, Kevin Youkilis). In the end, it's an exhibition game, and I know what kind of exhibition I'm looking for.
buckgunn
5/21
I agree with Dr. Dave. I vote for players based on the question, "who would you choose if you had to win one game tomorrow?" That is, after all, what the All-Star Game is -- a competition of stars at their current level of talent, not an honorarium to reward first-half stats.
TheBunk
5/21
Eeeeeep, I think you are really really really off base on Aaron Hill, he still doesn't walk much but the contact, power, and defense are for real. The guy hit 47 doubles and 17 homers in his last full season and is coming into his prime.
TheBunk
5/21
Nothing? I'm not saying the guy is pedroia or kinsler but I think it's a touch insulting to throw him in with guys like branyan and bartlett.
LuckyJim
5/21
Jones has been better than Markakis both offensively and defensively this year. Love them both, but this year there's no question who's the All-Star.
LuckyJim
5/21
Of course he wasn't in March. Which I guess is your point. On the other hand, why not just make out the team in March, then?
TGisriel
5/21
I'd go with Jones Markakis and Sizemore for the outfield
jkaplow21
5/21
Career play should break ties. It should be for the first half performance, maybe eat a bit of last years as well. It's silly to say ARod is in there at this point, and I like ARod as much as anybody.
illgamesh
5/21
Eh, I'm with you in terms of giving career performance the lion's share of credit, but two other things factor in big for me, as well, which are clutch performance and likability. Even if you think clutch hitting is luck, I think the all-star game is the perfect place for rewarding the sort of things that are fun but not all that important. After all, if that's not a good description of the game itself, nothing is. I'm also not opposed to rewarding a good player on a hot streak, or leaving off players who have missed time/played poorly. Keep out the Scutaros, but also the A-Rods. I'm also partial to players who have always played for the same team. As such:

Joe Mauer
Kevin Youkilis
Dustin Pedroia
Derek Jeter
Eval Longoria
Nick Markakis
Ichiro
Grady Sizemore

Halladay should start, but that's up to Maddon.

ClubberLang
5/21
If, as rumored, the deal is for four pitchers, the Padres must be nuts. It seems like every pitching prospect the Sox trade either turns out bad or gets hurt, and sometimes both. Peavy may do the Padres a favor by rejecting the deal (which most of us Sox fans think he will due to wanting to stay in the NL if he can) especially if they can still get the Cubs to give them Vitters. Richard is a 4th starter at best from what it appears, and I'm not sure Poreda will stick as a starter and may well end up an excellent reliever, but still a reliever. I'd rather have Vitters and whatever else the Cubs would toss in.
tballgame
5/21
Maybe the Padres took this offer from the White Sox and shared it with the press to grease the wheels for Vitters. Nothing a team hates more than losing a chance at a star player because of a crosstown rival.
fawcettb
5/21
Picking Derek Jeter at shortstop is like voting for George Bush because he was the President: what about the job they're actually doing? Isn't the all-star ballot for the players playing best at their position? If it is, find a shortstop playing better in the AL than Marco Scutaro.
Arrian
5/21
Yes, but we know Scutaro is a fluke. It's a nice fluke for Jays fans, don't get me wrong, but Joe specifically explained that he cares more about a player's body of work than he does about a couple of months. If you disagree with the method, that's fine (I think I disagree w/it, actually), but if that's the method, Jeter >>>> Scutaro.
crperry13
5/22
This has got to be the first Derek Jeter - George Bush comparo in history. I'd love to see sabermetric research to back this up.
Chadale
5/21
Pedroia : .820 OPS, 3.0 WARP3
Hill : .934 OPS, 3.5 WARP3
Kinsler : .956 OPS, 5.1 WARP3

I'll pick Kinsler since right now, he's the best at helping his team win games. Prior seasons don't really matter much to me wrt to the ASG.
brslart
5/21
Even buying in to Joe's established method for picking All-Stars, I think Kinsler should get the nod. The difference in their career achievements is not that large, shiny trophies notwithstanding. It's not a Jeter/Scutaro situation.

There's plenty of reason to believe that Kinsler is the better player right now. Voting for Pedroia based on Kinsler's injury from last season doesn't make that much sense to me.
illgamesh
5/22
How about voting for Pedroia because he was the most valuable player in the American League last year? Surely that qualifies him as an "all-star." Kinsler's never played a full season, Pedroia's played two. Pedroia is younger than Kinsler, but still has a ROY, and MVP, a gold glove, and a silver slugger. He led the league in three major categories last year. He's in video game commercials. Say what you want, but Pedroia is clearly more of a star than Kinsler.
ZachAttack123
5/21
"it's silly to not vote for the second- or third-best player in baseball, depending on how you rate Johan Santana, as an All-Star."

Forgive me, this may be a silly question, but who's number one? Albert Pujols?
jsheehan
5/21
Yes.
nibiyabi
5/21
Who else?
sblonder
5/21
Is it really "completely indefensible" to vote for the guy having the best first half? I prefer Joe's way too but this kind of hackish overstatement seems better suited for Around the Horn than BP.
ZachAttack123
5/21
Also, if Derek Jeter is the first unanimous Hall of Fame inductee, I'm not sure what that says about the Hall of Fame voters. He's been a very good player at shortstop, which is a position filled with the weakest hitters on the field, but to rate him as even in the top twenty or thirty players in MLB history is straight up insane.

Arrian
5/21
Yeah, it is. But HOF voters have demonstrated, repeatedly, that there is no particular method to their madness.
brslart
5/21
Miguel Cabrera has been around just as long as Teixeira, has comparable (and generally better) career numbers, and is having a monster season so far. Youkilis has one (!) five-WARP season to his credit and has already missed some time this season to injury. I don't understand Cabrera apparently coming in third place at first base.
murphy654321
5/21
Bartlett's current tear dates back to last august. He then participated in the playoffs, and the world series, which is more than one can say for Mr. Clutch himself. Full Disclosure: I'm a yankees fan.
murphy654321
5/21
Another HR for Bartlett today. What a fluke!
raton041915
5/21
If your All Star criteria is for a body of work and not for what a player has done lately, then your All Star pitchers would include Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. I mean, you can pick whomever you want - it's your column - but what's the point? Call it My Favorite Players On May 21st.
georgeforeman03
5/21
Except two are hurt and one sucks....

His critera isn't "Who was best 10 years ago", it's quite clearly, "Who is best right now", which is not to be confused with, "Who was best in April and half of May".
raton041915
5/21
By which you mean today, May 21st...
JohnHCh
5/21
To put words in Joe's mouth:

He'll pick the "best players in the game" but by "best," his criteria is the player's established body of work. So Randy Johnson once was one of the best (or Jason Giambi, to use a position-player example), but clearly has not been for several years.

On the other hand, to let the established body of work for, say, Jeter be ignored in favor of 2 good months from Marco Scutaro, when the established body of work for Scutaro shows that he is no where near All-Star caliber as a player, that goes hand-in-hand with paying too close attention to early-season success, which Joe has been harping about all year.

As Bill James once wrote, they don't call it the "All-Mediocore-Players-having-Good-First-Halves Game."
irablum
5/21
Pedroia is a good defensive player: Rates of 103 and 108 the previous 2 years and 109 this year.

Kinsler is better: Rates of 104 and 106 the previous 2 years and 113 this year.


They've both been in the league 4 years. in that time Pedroia has accumulated 16 warp. Kinsler 20.

Kinsler was only a poor defender as a rookie, since then he's been a positive.


illgamesh
5/22
Some defensive numbers don't pass the common sense test...
judyblum
5/22
That's pretty disingenuous. Pedroia was a sept. call-up in '06 who got to make all of 19 starts, while Kinsler was on the roster all season.
irablum
5/22
Pedroia played in 27 games in '06. he accumulated 0 warp. I didn't really pay attention to it.

Kinsler played a full year in '06. he accumulated 2.3 warp. and played poor defense.

in '07 and '08 they were very similar players. 07 BRAR: 37 vs 37. FRAR: 27 vs 25. 08 BRAR: 60 vs 61. FRAR: 28 vs 38.
so far this year, BRAR: 19 vs 12. FRAR: 13 vs 9.

The only difference I can see between them starting this year was that Pedroia was younger and played in more games. (which makes him the sexier choice)
Oleoay
5/21
Excuse me but didn't you write an article about how this year's all-star ballot will be an indication (and perhaps, a bit of retribution) on what fans think of PEDs in regards to manny ramirez? What should your vote for alex rodriguez tell us about your position? Why call out manny but give a-rod a free pass?
HugeShoulderpad
5/26
Because Joe's giving Manny a free pass, too. His column the day of the suspension said that directly.
eighteen
5/22
[When in doubt, I'll vote for the Yankee]

Fixed.
amacrae
5/22
It seems to me like one year you decided you needed an excuse as to why your ballot only contained Yankees and the "I vote for their career" was born.

Why is voting for 3 months worth of production for a game that happens once a year in the middle of the season so egregiously wrong? I think part of the FUN (remember fun?) of the All Star Game is seeing your Nate McLouth's sneak through every once in a while.

If an All Star Game was supposed to be about a career it'd be held every 5 years or something. I love a vast majority of the analysis that BP produces, but putting this much thought into how you fill out your All Star ballot just kinda tears apart the spirit of the thing.
braves117
5/22
I disagree. It's a game for the Stars of MLB. The fact that Sizemore is having a poor first 1.5 months shouldn't overshadow that he's one of the two best AL outfielders. I feel like you can typically pick out who the biggest Stars are in March just as much as May; you can't fill out a ballot then though.
crperry13
5/22
Ordinarily I wouldn't be so snide, but I just can't resist. At least you aren't leaning towards giving weight to AL East players. Three of the Eight are from other divisions.

How can you pick Pedroia over Kinsler or Hill?
alskor
5/22
How can he pick Pedroia? This is the "Real Life" All Star team. Fantasy stats like HR and SB dont have added significance here.

Take a look at their slash stats and defense.
irablum
5/22
ok, career: .291/.360/.483 vs .314/.374/.455 Career FRAR: 80 vs 79. So, you are picking Pedroia over Kinsler based on? pitching ability?
BryanM
5/22
Given your stated criteria, Joe, I find it pretty surprising that you chose Hunter over Granderson, Ichiro, Bay, etc. It seems as though this year's hot start has clouded your evaluation of him. He is what he has been for the past 4-5 years: a slightly above average hitter and an average defensive CF. That does not make him one of the top three outfielders in the AL.
crperry13
5/22
Nobody on the Yankees or Red Sox this season has played well enough to warrant an All-Star starting role.


hambone1818
5/22
Um, Jason Bay might have a bit of a beef with that statement. 34 13 44 4 .301/.433/.657.

Regarding the actual list, I too have an issue with a number of the choices. Saying that Teixeira has an edge on Miggy smells of homerism to me. Sure, he's a better defender but Miggy is the better hitter and has had a better start to '09 to boot. He has a better career triple-slash line and he hasn't even reached his 'peak' yet (maybe this years' start is when he REALLY busts out?).

Pedroia over Kinsler is defensible I guess, I just have a hard time faulting a guy for an injury last year. When healthy I'd take Kinsler over Pedroia, and this coming from a Red Sox fan.

ARod over Longoria is just ridiculous. If they were both healthy and ARod had even decent numbers I'd understand it, but not when Longoria has had the start (both to his career and the season) that he has.

And of course Jeter...maybe the year he retires he should be invited to the game as a 'farewell' tribute, but at this stage in his career, with the numbers he's putting up to go with some awful defense, I just can't see him deserving a start.
alskor
5/22
That rationale for Tex over Youk doesnt make a whole lot of sense. You admit he was "comparable" (I would say better) last year and "outperformed" him this year... but youre giving it to Tex on... a career achievement basis...?

Not sure I follow this line of thought.

Dont get me wrong - if youre asking me to wager who will be better in the future Im taking Teixeira. What's the point of this entire thing, though, if we're not rewarding performance to some extent? There's nothing Youk could do to get your vote over Teixeira...? Why even look at the numbers then. Just fill out a ballot with your favorite players before the season.
Sanz14000
5/22
This is redundant, but how can you justify A-Rod over Longoria (whose the favorite to win the AL MVP right now), Teixeira over Miggie Cabrera and Derek Jeter going to the All Star game as the worst defensive SS in baseball?

If your basis for voting is by career standards then you should have David Ortiz in there, along with Jim Thome and Matt Holliday. I mean, while we're at it, let's just throw in the D-Train for good measure. Some consideration has to be given to the current season for the All Star game which means Bartlett has to start over Jeter, Cabrera over Tex and Longoria over A-Rod, and, Victor Martinez, who has the highest VORP in baseball (if im not mistaken) over Joe Mauer.
kriscolic
5/22
Joe,

I agree completely with the way in which you go about picking your All-Star ballot. That said, I must ask: Torii Hunter??? From 2005-Now, Hunter has 18.8 WARP2. Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday, Johnny Damon, and Ichiro! all have more in that time period, and Hunter has beaten each of them no more than once in a single season from '05-'08 (Ichiro!'s bested him all 4 years). Curtis Granderson has him 17.6 to 11.4 since '07 and was miles better in both '07 and '08. B.J. Upton was also quite a bit better in both '07 and '08. If we use WAR, as listed on FanGraphs.com, Hunter looks just as bad, maybe worse, compared to the aforementioned players, and Alex Rios has posted better number via that metric in each year from '06-'08. Josh Hamilton has higher cumulative totals according to both metrics from '07-'09.

I know you made your picks at the ballpark without doing research, but Hunter is, at best, the 7th best AL outfielder. Depending on what you think of Jason Bay, he might be rank as low as 12th best.

That's not an All-Star.

llewdor
5/22
If Jeter is the first unanimous Hall of Fame selection, then the voters are completely ignoring defense.
iorg34
5/22
Hurray for Joe Mauer -- nice to see him getting his Ted Williams on.
FruitlandGeneric
5/22
Why not Aubrey Huff for first base? He's got better numbers than Tex, and won Silver Slugger for DH in the AL last year. I'd say he's the best option at the moment.
tradeatape
5/22
Would SOMEONE please explain to me the following?

Here are two outfielders' career stats (AVG/OBP/SLG; FPCT):

A .275/.366/.485; .994
B .278/.349/.494; .993

In addition, both A and B have equal scores of web gems to their names. For some reason though, B never ends up on an All-Star team; A is everyone's first pick and seems to go every year. A baseball official (Zelig?) said this year something along the lines that the Baseball World Classic has the work of B to thank for all the outreach he has done across the globe. This'll give it away, but B also was the second player in MLB history to go 20 triples, 20 homers, 20 steals. A, though, has matinee-idol good looks, whereas B is good-looking, but... well, we can't talk about race here, can we?

In case you haven't figured it out,
A=Grady Sizemore
B=Curtis Granderson

alskor
5/27
Are you aware Grady Sizemore is half African-American?