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Baseball Prospectus is proud to present its Top 100 Prospects list for 2009. Compiled by Kevin Goldstein after months of research and analysis, the list represents the best balance of skills analysis and performance analysis in the industry.

For expanded commentary on all 100 players and many more, pick up Baseball Prospectus 2009, available at Amazon.com now and in bookstores nationwide.


1. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles

2. David Price, LHP, Rays
3. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
5. Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
7. Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers
8. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals
9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
10. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
11. Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins
12. Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies
13. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves
14. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
15. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
16. Chris Tillman, RHP, Orioles
17. Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox
18. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
19. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
20. Michael Ynoa, RHP, Athletics
21. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
22. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
23. Trevor Cahill, RHP, Athletics
24. Brett Anderson, LHP, Athletics
25. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
26. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Marlins
27. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Rockies
28. Gordon Beckham, SS, White Sox
29. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
30. Matt LaPorta, 1B, Indians
31. Michael Bowden, RHP, Red Sox
32. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
33. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
34. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
35. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds
36. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
37. Brett Wallace, 3B, Cardinals
38. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
39. Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins
40. Derek Holland, LHP, Rangers
41. J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays
42. Greg Halman, OF, Mariners
43. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Phillies
44. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets
45. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies
46. Austin Jackson, CF, Yankees
47. Angel Villalona, 1B, Giants
48. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics
49. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
50. Jordan Schafer, OF, Braves
51. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
52. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles
53. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins
54. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
55. Michael Taylor, OF, Phillies
56. Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, Nationals
57. Brett Lawrie, C, Brewers
58. Mat Gamel, 3B, Brewers
59. Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers
60. Tim Alderson, RHP, Giants
61. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Mariners
62. Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
63. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
64. James McDonald, RHP, Dodgers
65. Michael Burgess, OF, Nationals
66. Michael Main, RHP, Rangers
67. Chris Perez, RHP, Cardinals
68. Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers
69. Mat Latos, RHP, Padres
70. Scott Elbert, LHP, Dodgers
71. Nick Adenhart, RHP, Angels
72. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Brewers
73. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
74. Aaron Poreda, LHP, White Sox
75. Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
76. Jason Castro, C, Astros
77. Andrew Lambo, OF, Dodgers
78. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Braves
79. Angel Salome, C, Brewers
80. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
81. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Nationals
82. Kyle Skipworth, C, Marlins
83. Nick Weglarz, OF, Indians
84. Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Padres
85. Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Cubs
86. Todd Frazier, SS, Reds
87. Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
88. David Cooper, 1B, Blue Jays
89. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Diamondbacks
90. Brett Cecil, LHP, Blue Jays
91. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
92. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Phillies
93. Adrian Cardenas, SS, Athletics
94. Jefry Marte, 3B, Mets
95. Ivan DeJesus Jr., SS, Dodgers
96. Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds
97. Daniel Bard, RHP, Red Sox
98. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Orioles
99. Brandon Allen, 1B, White Sox
100. Adys Portillo, RHP, Padres

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mhmosher
2/13
Awesome....and you\'ll now see Bumgarner scooped up in all but the shallowest keeper leagues.
phgold09
2/13
can i join your league?, if bumgarner was available until this list came out you need to find better competition
mhmosher
2/13
Kevin - how close was Brad Holt to making the cut?
kgoldstein
2/13
Not very. Mets fans getting very worked up about one dominating showing in the NYP. I really like him, but I\'m not ready to place a crown on him or anything.
chabels
2/13
Thanks for the list. Someday I\'d love to see a \'top 10/20/50/100\' prospects of the last decade, ignoring everything they did (or didn\'t do at the major league level. How does Price compare to Prior? Wieters to Mauer?
kgoldstein
2/13
I really like this idea. Not sure how to really wrap my head around it properly yet, but I like it.
BillJohnson
2/13
Long ago, BP ran a retrospective at the end of the year summarizing how that year\'s top 50 (this was back when it was still 50, not 100) had fared, with graded rankings according to whether they\'d met their expectations, overachieved, or fallen short. It might be nice to resurrect that as a first step in this direction. Amusingly, it disappeared before the installment for 2001 was due; apparently that year\'s rookie class (Pujols, Ichiro, Oswalt, Rollins, etc.) just broke the durn thing. :-)
chabels
2/15
Not sure how he does them, but would Clay\'s translated stats be a place to start? Of course for players who burst onto the scene with little or no minor league experience (F. Hernandez, Pujols), I don\'t know what you evaluate them on other than scouting reports.
lailaihei
2/13
So... did Carlos Triunfel just fall of a cliff and I missed it? What\'s the deal with leaving him off?
kgoldstein
2/13
Scouts I talked to don\'t like the effort, don\'t like the body for the middle of the diamond, and he\'s a 3-star guy for me.
Bogomil
2/13
\"For expanded commentary on all 100 players and many more, pick up Baseball Prospectus 2009, available at Amazon.com now and in bookstores nationwide.\" Do you guys get more or less depending on where we buy the book?
kgoldstein
2/13
No.
dpease
2/14
We actually get affiliate fees if you buy through a link on the website, so please do that if you are so inclined.
alskor
2/13
So I see you havent given up on Brignac or Adenhart yet... Andrus at 73 and Brignac at 62...? I understand Brignac profiles as a more complete hitter and Andrus\'s secondary skills are fairly limited, but that still strikes me as a strange choice.
kgoldstein
2/13
You just said Brignac strikes you as a more complete hitter, yet this confuses you? I agree with your offensive evaluation there, and I don\'t think Andrus\' defensive edge (which is smaller than one might think) makes up for it.
alskor
2/13
I guess at this point Im just bearish on Brignac\'s ability to reach that potential.
alskor
2/13
I know you havent done the Rangers yet... but Im having trouble separating Smoak and Hosmer as prospects. One high school, one college. One a switch, one a lefty. Massive power vs. polished high AVG. What is the difference in ceiling here? I cant eyeball it at all and Im curious to hear who scouts like more... well... Hosmer apparently, but Im curious as to their rationale. Thanks.
dmoriart
2/13
Are Smoak and Hosmer really that far ahead of Alonso? (Reds fan here, obviously...)
kgoldstein
2/13
I\'m not sure how you want me to answer this? Those are the ranking. If I thought he was closer, he\'d be so, no?
alskor
2/13
I dont know... was hoping youd have some magical answer that would put a divide between them... like... \"Hosmer\'s extra power is too much to ignore!\" or something like that. Thanks anyway.
jpm9263
2/13
How far off the list were Dayan Viciedo and Tyler Flowers?
kgoldstein
2/13
Viceido was closer than Flowers, who I have trouble evaluating as a catcher.
ddrezner
2/13
I see there are no worries about rumors regarding Alvarez\'s conditioning. One of the best things about your prospect lists is the top 11 players under 25 in each organization, which puts many of these prospects into perspective. Have you thought about a similar Top 100 list?
kgoldstein
2/13
Alvarez is in camp now and in very good shape.
illgamesh
2/13
So no Jeremy Hellickson? I\'ve been really high on him for a while, but I guess his stock fell after his second half last year?
strougal
2/15
I was looking for Hellickson, too. I still like him over Carrasco.
Leviathan
2/13
Like the list, but Alderson at 60? I think a lot of people are overrating him, but what made you put him so far down?
fredlummis
2/13
Smoak ahead of Castro? As an Astro fan, I hope Bobby Heck knows something you don\'t.
alskor
2/13
Does anyone have Castro above Smoak? I thought this was a given...
fredlummis
2/13
I was referring the Astros\' decision to draft Castro (at #10) over Smoak (#11) last June. As an Astros season ticket holder, it\'s tough to see Smoak ranked 50+ spots higher less than a year into their careers.
Matthew544
2/13
It could be worse. You could be a Pirate fan watching Matt Wieters tear up minor league pitching. Good thing we picked Dan Moskos instead.
Chip1010
2/13
Yeah, I remember the entire world slapping their palms against their foreheads when the Astros took Castro over Smoak.
PBunyan25
2/14
Yes, Castro should have been drafted later...but as an A\'s fan I was pulling for Smoak to fall to us!
dmoriart
2/13
OK, I didn\'t ask my earlier question the way I meant to... I guess what I\'m wondering is, what do you see in Smoak and Hosmer that you like better than Alonso? (With Alonso\'s beefy build, great walk rate, and power toward LCF, I\'ve been hoping for him to become the next Jim Thome!)
kgoldstein
2/13
Alonso\'s issues with lefties give me pause, and I think the power is pretty much equal, but Smoak and Hosmer are better pure hitters.
jhelfgott
2/13
Why was Hellickson left off the list?
kgoldstein
2/13
I like him quite a bit, just not convinced on the ceiling and body enough to give him a push to 4-stars.
philosofool
2/13
Two questions: what percentage of these guys (i.e. how many) are five star prospects? Also, if there\'s a way to answer this question, how big is the gap between first 4 star guy and Price or Alvarez? (The top prospects that don\'t get entire whole articles written about them.)
fantasy
2/13
Were Juan Ramirez or Hector Rondon ever in the discussion as you got towards the end? Thanks.
jnewfry
2/13
Where would Strasburg land?
kgoldstein
2/13
Top three.
jmoultz
2/13
Great list KG, thank you. Would anyone from the current draft crop (after Strasburg) make this list if they were eligible?
Mooser
2/13
So the Jays Top 11 have not come out, but with Arencibia ahead of Carrasco of the Philles, does that mean he is a 5 star prospect.
alskor
2/13
Kevin, any comments on Inoa\'s ranking? Or should I just wait for the Athletics top 11?
mymrbig
2/13
Two things immediately strike me - you are a much bigger believer in Pedro Alvarez than a lot of the other folks out there and you are much less of a believer in Logan Morrison than most other folks out there. What drops Morrison so low for you? I\'m really surprised to see him below Alonso, given Alonso\'s struggles against same-handed pitchers in college.
gilgamesh
2/13
Thanks for the list ... I am curious where Gerardo Parra rates vis-a-vis this list. Just outside?
doog7642
2/13
Kevin -- Would you be willing to do a ranking of your top age-25-and-under talent? That\'s a fantastic feature of the team reports, and I\'d love to see a composite ranking.
RFKRFK
2/13
I second that emotion.
ScotMartin
2/13
10 catchers on the list and not one of them with the Rangers. Is it Teagarden\'s bat and Ramirez\'s defense keeping them off the list?
kgoldstein
2/13
Bingo! Like \'em both. Don\'t love \'em both.
mattro12
2/13
As good as it appears MaxRam\'s bat is, does it really matter if he doesn\'t end up at catcher? His minor league numbers have been pretty special. Is there\'s something the scouts don\'t like about that bat for him not to be listed here?
hagan311
2/13
How close was Chris Marrero to making this list? Also seeing Brandon Allen get some recognition made my day!
NL2003
2/13
Great list, KG, looking forward to the write-up in the book. Well, Carrasco\'s a 5-star, and F-Mart\'s a 4-star...kind of looks like there are 43 5-star players according to KG. I\'d also be interested to know the magnitude in difference, in your opinion, between 5 and 4. I assume, for example, that Carrasco and Halman are closer in your rankings than Carrasco and FMart, right? Or is there a pretty fine line between 5 stars and 4 stars? (And yes, I know it is an art, not a science.)
deadsmith
2/13
Anyone know who the youngest person on the list is?
alskor
2/13
Pretty sure its Inoa...
deadsmith
2/13
Ah, right on.
hagan311
2/13
Adys Portillo is actually a few months younger than Inoa
aCone419
2/13
*insert gripe about my favorite team\'s prospect being low/left off*
kgoldstein
2/13
Amen, Unfiltered post on this later tonight.
hagglett
2/13
As an Orioles fan, I have not seen Erbe on any top 100 prospect lists this year. You think he can overcome the control/HR issues and be a starter or do you see him as a late inning reliever?
operatic
2/13
Would Josh Fields have made this list (if he\'d signed)? And will he sign?
mattseward
2/14
He has just signed http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090213&content_id=3827028&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea&partnerId=rss_sea No further details as of yet
joalryan
2/13
I\'m a little surprised to see Mike Stanton so high, considering his BB and K rates. Do you see him as someone that can succeed because he improves those rates, or in spite of them?
jeffreyarkin
2/13
What happened to Kyle Blanks?
TheBunk
2/13
I\'m assuming that Anderson being ahead of Hosmer is because he\'s much farther ahead, cause all I keep hearing is that Hosmer is a once in a decade kind of hitter.
Philkid3
2/13
I\'m a little shocked Teagarden or Ramirez weren\'t on here and by how low Holland was. That\'s about it. Haven\'t Tea and MaxRam been in your top 100 before?
amosap
2/13
Thanks for the list. Looks good.
MikeLHenderson
2/13
Where would Aaron Crow have been on this list? Or would he have qualified?
Pietaster07
2/13
Which Marlins prospect is closer to making this list? Stanton(OF) or Dominguez(3B)? Also, I\'m quite pleased Skipworth as made so much progress. It makes me feel better about the Marlins not getting Posey, me being both a huge Marlins and Seminole fan.
jhelfgott
2/13
Um...you know that Stanton and Dominguez both made the list, right? Stanton at #14 and Dominguez at #26.
Pietaster07
2/15
Wow. I can\'t believe I missed that. It\'s tough with Marlins and Mariners all mixed together, but I still can\'t believe I missed that.
modred
2/13
Why are some of the player names and teams linked and others are not?
louisma
2/13
Generally a player name is linked when a page exists for them, and not when no page exists. Try a player search for some of the unlinked names (Posey, Inoa) and you will see there is not player page to link to.
Leviathan
2/13
where would Bryce Harper fit on this list?
mbodell
2/13
I\'m pleasantly surprised to see 4 Jays on the top 100. For a long time it has been Snider and hope. My question is, how many of the bottom guys would it take for you to trade for the top guy? If you were a GM with Wieters would you need guys 98-100 or 96-100 or 90-100 or 80-100 or what to make that trade?
jm010e
2/13
Michael Taylor at 55? That\'s high, no? He\'s old for his league and has shown good, not great power.
PBunyan25
2/14
This year will be a big test for Michael Taylor...hopefully he continues to progress like he did in 2008. This year will be against older competition and guys his own age.
oira61
2/13
Kevin -- thanks for the list. From the comments it\'s clear that a chat about it would be popular. Is that possible next week? Happy St. Valentine\'s Massacre Day.
znadel
2/14
How do you resist putting in a fictitious prospect (a la Sports Illustrated\'s Sidd Finch) on the list at, say, #4, and enjoying the panic-driven e-mails from fantasy players scurrying around trying to find out who this stud is? Guess this kind of thinking is what drove me into health care and not something like the serious, emotionally charged world of baseball projections. Love the list- counting down the days until UPS shows up at my door with the 2009 Baseball Prospectus.
Bodhizefa
2/14
No Triunfel?
nblascak
2/14
If Jake McGee was healthy, where would he fit in these rankings?
hambone1818
2/14
Inoa in the top 20. KG, with the rate of attrition for prospects as young as him I\'m a bit surprised.
goose102977
2/14
Just curious, why did Cecil slide all the way down to 90? Seems a bit lower for a lefty who experienced success in 2008.
stevegrote
2/14
I\'m noticing that there\'s not a single 2B on this list... is because many of the future 2Bs are currently seen as SS, or is there an actual lack of talent at the position going on?
bishopscreed
2/15
This is indeed strange.
russadams
2/14
Where is Toby Gardenhire? His bloodlines must give him that special gritty quality that some people can appreciate. I mean, if his father says that what he likes in infielders is bunting and running around and catching the ball since it\'s fun to watch, then Toby should be listed, correct? If Ron sets the guidelines for what an infielder should be, then his son must be the prime example.
gilgamesh
2/14
What would his grit be on the scouting scale? 55?
caprio84
2/14
Kevin- Based on Pittsburgh\'s need for an impact player now...what are the odds that Alvarez is up mid season?
mafrth77
2/14
Engle Beltre still hnaging around in the 60\'s after posting a 2% walk rate. didn\'t he do the same thing as Triunfel? AVG and no secondary skills while being young for his level?
hindman
2/15
Beltre has no secondary skills because he has a low walk rate?
mafrth77
2/15
I guess \"no secondary skills\" is too strong, he did show good doubles power. But 15 walks in ~600 PA is a definite red flag, even for a 17 year old.
azynkewl
2/15
nice job on your list kevin! i like the players you listed, but i was shocked inoa is ranked 20th overall. sure he\'s got a huge ceiling and he\'s shown good mechanics, but he\'s 6ft7 and only 16. kinda makes you wonder if he\'ll still have good mechanics if he grows another several inches over the next few yrs. i agree he\'s a top 100 talent, and i know i\'m not as knowledgable as you, so i could end up being very wrong, but i really think you overranked him quite a bit.
davidrcoffin
2/15
Great List. I\'m wondering, if you rated players solely based on their hitting ability how far would Brett Wallace move up? Top 5 among hitters?
fletchdm
2/24
I am quite shocked by the Jeremy Hellickson omission. The dude had a 162:20 K/BB ratio in 152 IP last year. I don\'t care if you don\'t have a \"major league body\"...if you put up those numbers you belong on any Top 100 list. Compare that to teammate Wade Davis who had a 136:66 K/BB ratio in 160 IP. I would put money down that Hellickson will have a better career than Davis.
phgold09
3/02
i\'ll take that bet... how much?