Jay Jaffe broke down the list of Manny Ramirez suitors yesterday, naming three National League and two American League teams as the best fits for the 36-year-old slugger. I can’t say I disagree with his choices, and he noted a number of others in the piece as well. Ramirez is such a great hitter that he would be a good fit on just about any roster-he’s a player you make room for.
When you think about it, though, Ramirez’s inability to find a contract that suits him, and the similar situations faced by Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu, is fairly nonsensical. The three are the last men standing among the deep class of “corner outfielders who can hit but not field” that graced the market this winter, with Raul Ibañez, Pat Burrell, and Milton Bradley having already inked deals with new teams. Every one of these players, save perhaps the aging Ibañez, is qualified to play a position that many AL teams have struggled to fill, a position that has a short list of qualifications: Hit. Yet many teams suffer through subpar performance from their designated hitters, and in some cases they act as if the position requires skills other than simply being able to rake.
Here’s what AL teams got from their DHs last year-thanks, Bil Burke-with the primary player or players responsible for the stats listed to the right.
AVG OBP SLG DHs Angels .271 .330 .437 Anderson, Guerrero Orioles .274 .331 .491 Huff Red Sox .273 .379 .490 Ortiz White Sox .246 .356 .484 Thome Indians .236 .324 .389 Hafner, Dellucci Tigers .218 .310 .388 Sheffield Royals .268 .309 .446 Butler, Guillen Twins .269 .344 .438 Kubel, Monroe Yankees .282 .378 .461 Matsui, Damon, Giambi A's .229 .337 .397 Cust, Thomas Mariners .221 .273 .334 Vidro, Clement Rays .246 .322 .428 Floyd, Gomes Rangers .301 .421 .494 Bradley Blue Jays .247 .325 .418 Stairs, Thomas
The average American League batter hit .268/.336/.420. Four AL teams couldn’t match any of those three figures from a position at which there’s no defensive requirement whatsoever. Eight AL teams got subpar OBPs from their DH slot, which seems like a good way to torpedo your offense. If you were to pick your DH entirely based on their ability to not make outs, you’d be ahead of the game in the American League.
We can make excuses all day-Travis Hafner fell off a cliff, possibly due to injuries; Billy Butler was a disappointment; Matt Stairs might be done; Gary Sheffield, too-but this is the easiest position to fill on a baseball diamond, and a significant number of AL teams are simply not grasping the concept.
Some of these situations have improved this winter-the Rays signed Burrell to be their full-time DH, and the Blue Jays will probably use some combination of Adam Lind and Travis Snider there in 2009-but many haven’t. The Tigers are still hoping that Sheffield’s contract will bounce back and be productive; the Angels don’t have an identifiable DH at the moment, but only Vladimir Guerrero, among the rostered options, would hit enough to carry the spot. (Spare me the Juan Rivera silliness; he’s 30 and has two partial seasons of viability in his career, just one since 2004.) The Mariners and Royals at least appear set to go with young players at DH, Jeff Clement and Butler, respectively. Still, if the Mariners sign Ken Griffey Jr. as opposed to Dunn or Abreu, it’s a sign that they’re a circus act, not a baseball team.
Just to provide some context, and to be, I think, the first guy to tease these, here are the 2009 PECOTA projections for the three free-agent bats:
AVG OBP SLG PA Ramirez .295 .391 .538 580 Dunn .262 .396 .541 601 Abreu .282 .368 .436 574
Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn would be the best hitters on many AL teams, regardless of position. Abreu, who has been in a slow decline, one that has shown up in his plate discipline, is a bit riskier, but he’s also someone who brings a right fielder’s arm and a touch of speed. A team with a big right field-Abreu has significant problems playing the wall-could get better defense from him and not have to play him at DH.
When you combine the lack of production AL teams have been getting from their DH slots, the limited requirements of the job, and the available talent, it’s hard to understand why these three players are finding it so difficult to find work. The Indians, Tigers, and Angels are all contending teams that desperately need a bit more offense and have holes in these spots, albeit ones filled with bad contracts. These teams have to recognize that the sunk cost of an eight-figure deal is a line item that will be swallowed up in pennant-race and post-season revenues if they upgrade their DH slots by 30 or 40 runs, which is what Dunn and Ramirez can do for these teams.
It’s good that teams now calculate and account for the defensive cost of players such as these three, and that, in fact, is the biggest reason why all remain unsigned. However, the presence of the DH slot in the AL makes that accounting moot, leaving only the question of offense. Some AL team is going to have the light bulb go on, and the one that does is going to play more than 162 games this year. That’s the kind of impact these bats can have.
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Moreover, signing an inert DH limits a team\'s flexibility and can cause a cascade of roster problems that leave an offensive wet noodle playing in the field.
Without actually knowing the financial (or other) demands these players are making (and you have to believe that Boras is not giving in) how could you categorize the non-signings as \"non-sensical\"?
You don\'t have to rehash over and over that these players are good. We get it.
But let\'s assume that this issue is entirely about dumb GMs failing to realize that there are great players out there that could help their team.
There\'s an increasing sense across the industry that a no-glove hitter just isn\'t worth $15M+ per over a 3+ year contract.
Fangraphs puts Dunn\'s value at $7M, $13M and $8M over the previous three years.
Abreu\'s been worth $13M, $12M, $6M.
And Manny\'s at $14M, $5M, $28M.
If you put stock in WAR--and it seems to be doing a great approximation of how smart teams have been evaluating free agents the past couple of seasons--what are these guys really worth?
It seems even teams that don\'t necessarily \"get\" this are waiting for the prices to fall.
Of the other 7 teams: The Angels are such a hands-down favorite to win the AL West for the foreseeable future that spending another $40-60 million over the next 3-4 years doesn\'t significantly improve their chances; the A\'s have to consider their new stadium before committing big coin to a FA; the Red Sox, Rays, and White Sox are set at DH; the Yanks have spent their money; and the Twins sent Livan Hernandez to the mound 23 times last season and still came within a game of winning a division that hasn\'t improved any this winter.
Nobody in the AL needs these guys at a price anywhere near their market value.
Not to mention one assumes the Angels would like to do more than just win their division, or that the Twins might not want to start every season in a huge hole they might or might not dig out of.
And the Twins? Now, they\'re committed to Kubel, and obviously aren\'t going to go out and sign Manny anyway, but to suggest that they have no need to improve because they tied for the division lead last year--when the two division favorites, one of which will be the favorite again this year, unexpectedly flopped--seems pretty silly.
For me it just seems like teams are (thankfully) starting to value offense and defense more equally, but are overdoing the correction.
Why don\'t they go after Ramirez? Or at least Adam Dunn?
Perhaps they\'re just convinced that they can\'t compete for the AL East even if they do sign Manny Ramirez? Regardless, Dunn would still be a very good fit in Toronto.
RE: eighteen\'s argument: The Angel\'s Pythag marked them as an 88 win team last year, and they\'ve gotten worse over the offseason. Should the A\'s acutally pony up and sign one of these guys, there will be trouble in the West. Also, look for the Rangers in the next three years. Can\'t argue with the rest, except that the Indians should challenge in the Central again, which would make an upgrade for the Twins a wise decision.
The general line in the comments so far is that it is about the money. While I agree wholeheartedly, the market on these guys has slipped to the point where they\'re well worth the investment.
By \"cascade of roster problems that leave an offensive wet noodle playing in the field,\" what exactly do you mean? Are you talking about injuries, or just a failure to choose the best player for a position?
I would like to think that if the payroll were not hampered by the dismal economic situation in Detroit the Tigers would be aggressively pursuing Adam Dunn. He fits their offensive needs like a glove: a left-handed power-hitting, OBP machine. I wonder, though, if Dombrowski would go after Dunn even if he had more wiggle year in his budget. I have a hunch the answer would be no.
Now this last sentence provided me with my best laugh in a long time... Manny would \"probably\" be a slight upgrade over David Dellucci. Now that\'s funny!
I mean, Jose Vidro got more than 280 PA at DH last year. On the Blue Jays, their banjo-hitting infield of Eckstein, Scutaro, Bautista, and Inglett combined for about 60 PA at DH. If you did that in a Strat league, they\'d accuse of you of tanking in order to get a good draft pick next year.
Manny and Pujols would be a great combo regardless, especially in playing in an even worse NL.
people in the stands still operate by traditional perceptions of baseball aptitude. when you have a guy that makes a ton of invisible contributions like walking to first base, holding up the game by taking pitches etc, but he also makes the occasional high profile error and show visible signs of laziness, then the fan perception of the guy will not be a \"winning player.\"
an all hit no field player still retains much of his value given the proper roster, but to fans such a player is not a pleasure to watch. although offense is more marginally differentiated than defense, the players spend longer time on defense than offense, and the mistakes or ineptitudes in the former are more visible.
of course, we have not looked at how teams value fan perception of winning vs actual results, but perhaps there is something there. the biggest argument against it from actual behavior would be consistency over teams, but holding baesball teams to a consistent standard of judiciousness is just unrealistic