With the 2008 season winding down and our new comment feature working, I want to try a little experiment. Over the last two weeks of the season, my e-mail box usually fills up with desperate requests for information by fantasy owners trying to squeeze out the last little bit of a title run, of playoff-bound fans trying to figure out their chances, and from a lot of insiders that are starting to collect information before they embark on their off-season free agent and trade discussions. While I’ve never done a mailbag column (the oldest crutch in the sportswriter’s toolbox), this is going to function pretty closely to it, but instead of e-mail, we’ll use comments. Ask your questions, as specifically as you want, and throughout the day, I’ll answer them as best I can. There are limits, so don’t try playing “stump the band”; also, don’t expect me to whip out a quick study on some major topic, but I will take suggestions for things to look at this offseason. Minor league info, especially at this time of year, is exceptionally hard to come by. Kevin Goldstein‘s the one with a beret, while I prefer a ballcap and a brunette.
So today, I’m working for you. It’s like that every day, but it will be in sharper focus. Powered by whatever the heck you want to be powered by, on to the injuries:
Rich Harden (0 DXL)
Carlos Zambrano (0 DXL)
Harden was pushed back, but this isn’t an injury or even buying him extra rest. It functions as that, but the Cubs are merely setting up their playoff rotation. Harden appears to be locked in for the second game of their Division Series, but Zambrano’s status could throw everything off. There were no notes from the beatwriters about whether Zambrano did his side work in preparation for his Wednesday start, but since there’s no news, let’s assume it’s good news. There is plenty of speculation about starting Zambrano in the third game of their LDS, putting Ryan Dempster in line for the home start in the series opener, but if Zambrano pitches like he did last time out, Lou Piniella‘s going to need more Tums.
Howie Kendrick (0 DXL)
Kendrick returned as planned on Monday, but didn’t make it through the whole game. This was by design, as the Angels simply gave him a couple of at-bats and some field time without taxing the hamstring. It’s a smart play by the Angels, who will continue to do this over the next couple of days to make sure that Kendrick is ready for full-time duty when it really counts.
John Maine (30 DXL)
Maine threw a 25-pitch simulated game on Monday, and appears to have found some velocity. It’s not clear whether it was enough velocity, how he’ll recover from the throwing session, or how long he could go in a real game, but it’s something. Even in this last desperate week, Jerry Manuel doesn’t seem inclined to use Maine, not even in low-leverage situations. With the Mets just a game up on the Brewers and falling behind the Phillies, it’s harder and harder to explain why Manuel is digging in his heels on this.
Hanley Ramirez (0 DXL)
Ramirez was back in the lineup for the Marlins, as expected, but he did go oh-fer and looked uncomfortable at the plate. After four missed games, it’s tough to tell if Ramirez is just missing some timing or if his shoulder is throwing his swing off. Whichever it is, sources tell me that there’s very little chance that Ramirez will need surgery to re-repair his problematic left shoulder.
Roy Oswalt (0 DXL)
The Astros are still delusional, and one reflection of that is their planning to start Oswalt on three days’ rest Thursday. They’re 3½ games out of the wild-card race, and with less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs, the team that’s scratched and clawed its way all the way to mediocrity is going to risk it’s one good starter, tilting at windmills. While the real risk of using Oswalt is small, it’s the shortsightedness without upside that’s the real problem, both now and in the future for Astros fans. When it’s time to write it all up, Oswalt’s career path might be the defining arc for this era’s Astros.
J.D. Drew (45 DXL)
Drew had an epidural to try to relieve some of the pain and to break the pain/spasm cycle that’s been in full effect. These usually come in a series of three over the course of a week to ten days, so even if this works, Drew’s chance of playing in the first round of the playoffs is about as low as the chance of the Sox not being in the playoffs.
So now it’s on you. Put your questions in the comments and I’ll drop in all day to answer them.
Thank you for reading
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http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/Justin_Verlander.html
He\'s averaging 96 on his fastball and 94 on the cutter, so I don\'t think velocity is the issue!
On Zumaya, he\'s shown two things: 1) He can\'t stay healthy but 2) when he is, he\'s still got it. Leyland seems inclined to install him as closer next year, so I think he\'ll be good, not great. If I told you that I\'d compare him to Kerry Wood \'08, would that be a good or bad thing? Not the performance, but the way we thought of Wood coming into \'08.
Jennings -- positive. The shoulder isn\'t said to be serious and surgery should give him a chance to stay healthy.
McGee -- typical TJ pattern.
De Los Santos -- I got nothing.
One other point: the Astros only need to finish within two games to give them an endless reason to bitch and moan over life\'s (and Selig\'s) unfairness. In terms of selling tickets to the fan base, such an ending would probably have value for them.
I see 3 against COL, 7 against PIT, 3 against CIN, 3 against FLA, 3 against ATL, and 5 against CUB. Aside from the Cubs (who they did sweep at Wrigley), that\'s not exactly stellar competition. I\'ll let someone else look at August, but I\'d expect similar results.
Will McLane really rail against Selig given his record as a company man? I can see it, but the way that the team mailed it in against the Cubs was just sad.
The concern is much more significant with Pelfrey, who the Mets admit is in uncharted territory. For Santana, he\'s out of the injury nexus, has proven durable, and hasn\'t thrown big-count games all season. While he\'s insanely valuable, I\'m not too worried. I do think we\'ll see Pelfrey have something more than the normal Verducci Effect. Maybe the Mets could Joba-ize him.
I would note that he wants a long term deal and I\'d be hesitant. Travis Hafner showed that even DHs can be affected by injuries. Three years? Only if I can clear out one of the Ramirez/Blalock/Davis crew.
Thanks Matt
McGowan is supposed to be ready for spring training after labrum surgery, not TJ. We\'ll have to see if he\'s on that plan and how he responds. I wouldn\'t count on him.
Brad Arnsberg, I understand, is healthy and ready for \'09. Just sayin\'.
As a pinch-runner/defensive replacement/emergency hitter? 50%
Here\'s an odd stat ... The Dodgers are one of very few teams that has a lower Injury Cost (calculated from MORP) than actual dollars lost. Some of that is due to bad free agent contracts overvaluing guys like Jason Schmidt and Nomar Garciaparra, but I wonder if that says anything about the Dodgers\' medical staff.
Looking at it, I don\'t think so. I think it\'s mostly Nomar and Andruw.
How do you see the hip issues returning for Duchscherer affecting him in 2009? Is this the same issue he had the surgery for? He was so good this year before the problem resurfaced, can he overcome it or are we looking at a recurring injury?
As a Ranger fan, should I be concerned that Ryan is going to go all Dallas Green on Feliz, Holland, Main, Perez, et al, or is this much ado about nothing?
Someday, a team will be interested. I\'m here, though it\'s not a tough system to implement.
Also, should Donovan McNabb be fine for next week?
Yes, bruised sternum. He\'s a must start still
1 - Does this - or any - new pitch have short or long potential to cause injury? Have you seen him throw it, and observed if it does anything different to his mechanics?
2 - How much of an affect did the original slurve have to do with his arm falling off (to use a technical term)?
The second question might be better served as an off-season article, I don\'t know. Thanks for your work, I\'ve learned a lot from reading you.
2 -- any pitch poorly thrown or a well thrown pitch that exceeds the limits of the body will cause damage, just as long term repetitive stress will break down the body.
And you\'re welcome. I\'ve learned a lot by writing for you.
A while ago in one of your chats someone brought up the fact that pitchfx showed no changes in Zambrano\'s release point, contradicting what people have been saying about him \"dropping his elbow.\" I was wondering if you confirmed this? The dropped elbow obviously is consistent with rotator cuff pain. I\'m a Cubs fan looking for a glimmer of hope with the guy...I hate heading into the playoffs with Big Z being the biggest question mark.
Looking through Lincecum\'s PITCHf/x numbers from his last start (the one right after his 138 pitch game) his velocity was down by a little more than 1mph and his fastball lost about an inch and a half of horizontal movement. Is losing velocity and movement indications of fatigue? And if so, does his injury risk increase? Thanks.
thx,
Josh Kalk, Eric Seidman ... are you out there?
It seems like a number of them have been a) overworked, b) rushed back from injury, or c) misdiagnosed or injury ignored/hidden.
I always wonder how a major injury and subsequent time lost hurts the development of a young pitcher. In particular, with regards to the prematurely anointed ace Phil Hughes. Given his injuries, how do you see his effectiveness and risk or recurrence going forward? Thanks.
I\'m not a scout, I\'m not Kevin Goldstein, but I would never put a young pitcher in the top 20 of prospects. Who would be on that list for \'09?
Of course, using a closer is a type of forced relieving - and, yes, I am in the closers-are-not-optimally-used camp. This isn\'t to say we should go back to the days of complete game machoism. A strong bullpen and healthy starters are good things. Closers are human - unpredictable. If you have a reliever or starter going strong and is strong enough to continue, it is a bad bet to take him out just because you have a ninth inning closing situation.
I think this can work.
Again - thank you.
Do Anibal Sanchez and Matt Capps look like they are coming off their injurys okay?
Yes, tho I\'m still concerned by the shoulder and his inconsistency and yes, Capps looks good, but man, that Chavez kid can throw. There are very few guys who\'s ball explodes more out of his hand. It\'s almost like watching Kazmir pitch.
I was wondering if you thought JD Drew\'s injury will need surgery, and if this injury will affect next/future seasons. I was also wondering if his back injury was a pre-existing injury when he signed the 5Yr/$70MM deal with the RS? Is there a provision for the Sox to terminate the deal if the injury became a worsening concern with time (i seem to remember the deal holding up over an issue like this).
Thanks for all the info and entertainment.
There\'s a couple opt outs. One was related to his shoulder. The other is if he finishes the season on the DL in 09 or 10 and can\'t play the OF the following season. (Thanks, Cots!)
What player do you think is the reddest of red flags for next year?
I\'m a Giants fan and I wished they shut him down three weeks ago. They\'re throwing him out there to win the award and use as a marketing tool for 2009. There\'s no baseball reason for him to be on the mound tonight- it\'s all business. I pray he\'s healthy for all of 2009 or there will be some serious second guessing.
Just interested what the projections may be for anybody who played SS for Cincy this year relative to other teams.
And does the Drummer continue?
1) Would you like to see UTK Interactive as a regular feature, or would you rather do chats?
2) Why does no one seem to \"get\" UTK Wrap? I can\'t tell you how many times people have asked \"why does it repeat?\" It\'s a recap, done for non-subscribers and our friends at SI.
My reddest flag? I did a dry run of the THR system while testing a couple changes, so this is unlikely to hold true, but it\'s Johnny Cueto. Max Scherzer was up there and Mike Pelfrey was too. Clayton Kershaw came out a bit lower than I expected.
Don\'t worry about people not \"getting\" the wraps. There is nothing, nowhere, nohow that absolutely everyone \"gets.\"
And it is a source of immense relief to me that Adam Wainwright isn\'t your reddest red.
Please don\'t worry what the stupid people say- and for heaven\'s sake don\'t respond. Responding will only make them feel important. If you want to vent, just make fun of them on your personal blog (Keith Law does this with great humor).
Sometimes it feels like just naming it UTK Wrap isn\'t a strong enough hint that it is a recap article, I just see \"Will Carroll\" and \"UTK\" and automatically assume it\'s something I should be reading.
Cueto makes sense as a reddest flag. I would assume that Volquez scores pretty highly as well.
I like UTK Interactive - it would be extremely helpful prior to fantasy draft day - worth 1/4 of the annual subscription to BP.
I \"get\" UTK Wrap. I read it along with the daily post.
Good call on Cueto, and I\'m leery of Volquez in \'09 also. Not the best news on Carp for me as a Cards fan.
Gamel -- his defense is atrocious and with them struggling, there\'s just no way to find him more than occasional at-bats.
Towles -- disappointing season and I wonder how the Astros will deal with it. Ausmus is going to manage this team soon.
Have the Mets injury problems mostly been the result of having an old and injury-prone roster, or is there something sub-par about the medical/conditioning program? Guys like Maine, Pagan, Castro, Church aren\'t nearly as old as Hernandez, Easley, Alou, Pedro.
Is that pretty accurate? What are the odds on him pitching next year compared to pitching again at all?
Love the interactive. Definitely keep it.
My question: Am I going to get anything from Adam LaRoche this week? Only have 2 transactions left in a H2H league. Thanks.
Firstly on the interactive bit, yeah I like it a lot it\'s very fun and very gracious of you to answer everyone\'s questions. Only problem might be if you get 500 questions to respond to but if it\'s manageable I would love to see a repeat.
On the UTK Wrap thing I think people that have been subscribers for a while forget that some things are open to non-subscribers and help to encourage new people to sample the site before subscribing. I think most subscribers skim read and pick up the new bits and have a look at the injury cost stats
On that note I have no idea how people can read this site regularly and not subscribe I think I lasted about 3 days before signing up when I first visited. I\'d gladly skip a few meals to pay for a subscription if I was broke enough!!