keyboard_arrow_uptop
Image credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

One of the formative movie-watching experiences of my young life was, without a doubt, the 1976 film, Logan’s Run. This film’s premise is fairly straightforward: in a supposedly-utopian-but-actually-dystopian society of the year 2274, humans live a life of hedonistic enjoyment inside a giant, climate-controlled geodesic dome. There’s one caveat, though. They are publicly and ritually exterminated upon turning the magical age of thirty, so as to keep the population from ever growing beyond its available resources. Michael York, who plays Logan, a cop who tracks down those who try to escape, discovers that the ritual does not “renew” the dead into a higher plane of existence. It is essentially just state-sanctioned murder on a mass scale.

OK, that setup was a little dark, but I think you can see where this is going. Though this column is not about “me,” per se, it’s true that as I age well beyond (and I mean well beyond) the threshold of extermination in the film’s storyworld, I have cultivated an increasingly sympathetic attitude toward aging baseball players. Amidst the ever-expanding cult of youth that attends the valuation of players (and, let’s be honest, there are a lot of great young players!), I wanted to take a moment to discuss some who might be a little long in the tooth, but are nonetheless primed to be under-the-radar fantasy producers in 2020. And while nothing so draconian as extermination is at issue here, there is a certain tendency to push players whose age begins with a “3” down draft sheets.

Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports has coined the term “Raúl Ibañez All Stars” to label boring, unsung players who nonetheless offer helpful fantasy value. Often, but not always, these players are over the age of 30. My approach is similar in spirit, but it is limited to players who have passed that age milestone. Moreover, I’m not looking at obvious picks here; sure, J.D. Martinez is over 30, but he’s still probably going to be a consensus top-30 pick. I’m looking to the later rounds, in particular for players whose 2019 seasons may have gone unnoticed or underappreciated, but whose skills indicate continued or improved value in 2020.

Because I love you all so much, I’m going to give you a full offensive lineup (no pitchers today!), with a brief comment for each.

Catcher – Robinson Chirinos (age on Opening Day 2020: 35)

There were a number of backstops over the age of 30 who had unexpected seasons—Roberto Pérez, Travis d’Arnaud, actually Stephen Vogt—but I’m going with the last-seen-with-the-Astros backstop, Chirinos. Even before Chirinos made it to the, uh, helpful hitting environment in Houston, he was essentially the same hitter in Texas from the 2017 season: a low-average, high-OBP everyday-ish catcher with enough power to hold his own for the position. As a free agent, he benefits from his par defense (3.0 FRAA) to stand a chance of a starting gig somewhere. In one-catcher leagues, particularly with OBP instead of average, he’s a fine late-round option.

First Baseman – José Abreu (33)

Now that we know Abreu is headed back to the South Side, we can ink in another year of steady production for the soon-to-be-33-year-old. Returning to form after a slightly-down 2018, Abreu finished the past season with a respectable 108 DRC+ that played up because of his counting stats (including a career-high 123 RBI). Add in an improving lineup that should include Luis Robert, and the Cuban émigré should once again be an accumulating machine with a solid average hovering around the .280 mark.

Second Baseman – Howie Kendrick (36)

Though Kendrick got into only 23 games at the keystone for the world champs in 2019, that’s good enough for government work (and positional eligibility), as my stepfather used to say (plus: government, Washington, see?). Kendrick’s prognosis will depend on where he ends up in free agency, but as I wrote about at length here, his phenomenal 2019 is largely supported by the skills—namely improved plate discipline and quality of contact. If he even gives you 70 percent of his production from the past season, he’ll be well worth a later-round pick.

Shortstop – Elvis Andrus (31)

Elvis, a hero to most in the Metroplex during the Rangers’ run of excellence in the early teens, has been something of an enigma of late. Even the enhanced ball only brought the Ranger’s homer total to a pedestrian 12, but Andrus more than made up for it with his 31 steals. Though not up to the lofty standards set by his career year in 2017, Andrus returned to something approximating the player we thought he was: a steals-and-runs guy with enough power not to kill you. Betting on speed for a post-30 dude is not typically a sharp’s play, but something tells me his potential for 20-plus bags will go underappreciated in drafts this spring.

Third Baseman – Asdrúbal Cabrera (34)

There are a number of higher-profile third-sackers who tick the box of over-30 production: Josh Donaldson, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Justin Turner, and others. Digging deeper, we might miss the solid season that Asdrúbal Cabrera had in his time split between the Rangers and the Nats. Though mainly serving in part-time work, his numbers after the All-Star break sipped from the fountain of youth. Cabrera posted a .309/.383/.511 slash line with 11 and 14 percent walk and strikeout rates, respectively. As with a number of players on this list, he is a free agent, and his destination will dictate his playing time, and hence his draft value.

Left Field – Corey Dickerson (30)

Although Dickerson came into public consciousness as a Coors-charged lefty power bat, you might not know that, since the beginning of 2018, he has slashed .305/.334/.505 in 812 plate appearances. While this has come with a power dip, the more contact-oriented approach gives Dickerson a higher floor. He, too, is a free agent, so watch closely to see if his landing spot gives him a path to regular playing time. If it does, pounce on the youthful (for this list!) outfielder.

Center Field – Andrew McCutchen (33)

Following an ACL tear in June, McCutchen’s inaugural season in Philly came to a sad and untimely conclusion. Assuming his full health heading into 2020, you can be reasonably confident in getting boilerplate Cutch 2.0: a middling-average, high-OBP, solid-power, middle-of-the-order bat in a potent lineup. Although the steals have gone the way of the dodo, Cutch should be especially attractive in on-base leagues. (And, yes, I included him as a centerfielder, where he really shouldn’t play even though he sometimes does, but it doesn’t matter for the purposes of this exercise, move along.)

Right Field – Kole Calhoun (32)

I know, I know, you’re calling “Bullshirt!” on Calhoun’s 33 bombs from the homer-drunk bender of 2019. And, yes, that .232 average isn’t pretty. Still, Calhoun is more palatable in on-base leagues (thanks to a career-high 11.1 percent walk rate), and—again, pending a destination—he stands to rack up the counting stats if he finds himself near the top of a credible batting order. Calhoun’s career platoon splits aren’t as dramatic as last year’s, and his above-average fielding could motivate some team to roll him out as an everyday player. He’s likely ticketed for the waiver wire in 15-team leagues, but chances are that someone will own him by the end of April and benefit from a steady, if unspectacular, fantasy producer.

Sure, there are plenty of other players who wouldn’t have made it past the Carousel (that’s the place where 30-year-olds are ritually vaporized in a public, gladiatorial spectacle), yet who will still offer their own forms of production in their mildly geriatric age. Those above are just a few who may be able to outrun the Sandmen (the age cops) and break through to a longer fantasy lifespan.

Thank you for reading

This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.

Subscribe now
You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe