OBP is Life. Life is OBP.
That’s not mine. It’s Gary Huckabay’s, one of the many pithy-but-salient
observations he’s made over the years. It’s one I’ve been repeating a lot this
morning as I talk about the Yankees’ success. Despite losing $24 million worth
of corner outfielders, getting nothing from a $10 million starter
(Carl Pavano) and below-average pitching from another $20 million combo (Jaret Wright and Randy Johnson), the Yankees are 35-22, atop the AL East by a game-and-a-half and tied for the second-best record in baseball.
The Yankees have achieved their success by leading the majors in runs scored
with 344, and they’ve done that by leading the planet in OBP with a whopping
.375 mark. You can’t understate how impressive that figure is. The post-1900
record for OBP is .385, set by the 1950 Red Sox. (Six teams, including three
John McGraw/Hughie Jennings Orioles squads,
topped that figure between 1894 and 1897.) Just 19 teams have ever had a .375
OBP, and none have done so since those ’50 Sox. Since then, a mere two teams
have cracked .370: the 1994 Yankees and the 1999 Indians. The latter is the
only team in the last 56 years to score 1000 runs, while the former went into
the season-ending strike second in the AL in runs scored.
Even during the recent high-offense era–called another name by some, but not
by me, not without more perspective–team OBPs tended to peak in the .360s. From
1993 through 2005, 21 teams had OBPs between .360 and .369, but only the
aforementioned two cracked .370.
The Yankees’ OBP is a reflection of both good hitting and a high walk rate.
They’re second in the AL with a .291 BA, and tied with the Red Sox for the
league lead in walks drawn (252). Individually, they’re being led by
Jason Giambi–hey, did I ever point out how stupid I was for getting on the “Giambi needs two weeks in Columbus” bandwagon last year?–at .458. Derek Jeter is combining a career-high walk rate (32 in
248 PA) with a near-career-high BA (.344) to post a .435 OBP. Jorge
Posada is resurgent at .420 while Alex Rodriguez and
Johnny Damon are right around expectations.
When you have a core of players who combine for better than a .400 OBP, you
can get away with a lot of lineup problems. You can get away with a DH/OF
hitting .265/.312/.365, the way Bernie Williams is. You can
survive a spate of injuries that forces Bubba Crosby and then
Terrence Long into the lineup. You can survive the decline of
Randy Johnson and the pumpkinization of Shawn Chacon and
Aaron Small, not to mention a bullpen so shaky that
Scott Proctor might throw 110 innings.
That’s why the Yankees are in first place right now, and why they may very
well stay there all season long in spite of a series of injuries and
disappointing performances. The power of a high team OBP is that strong.
Take a look at the list of high-OBP teams. Since the strike zone and mound
were returned to their upright and locked positions in 1969, 22 teams have
posted a .360 OBP or better.
OBP Record Place 1994 Yankees .374 70-43 1 1999 Indians .373 97-65 1 1996 Indians .369 99-62 1 2000 Indians .367 90-72 2 1994 White Sox .366 67-46 1 1996 Mariners .366 85-76 2 1999 Yankees .366 98-64 1 1998 Yankees .364 114-48 1 1999 Mets .363 97-66 2 1993 Tigers .362 85-77 4 1997 Yankees .362 96-66 2 2000 Rockies .362 82-80 4 2000 Giants .362 97-65 1 2000 Mariners .361 91-71 2 1999 Rangers .361 95-67 1 2000 Astros .361 72-90 4 1995 Indians .361 100-44 1 1996 White Sox .360 85-77 2 1996 Yankees .360 92-70 1 2001 Mariners .360 116-46 1 2003 Red Sox .360 95-67 2 2000 A's .360 91-70 1
All data thanks to Lee Sinins’ Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and
I haven’t gotten into park or era factors here, and those are obviously
important given that every one of the above teams played in the past 13 years.
Nevertheless, the relationship between a very high OBP and team success is
pretty clear. Not only were most of these teams good, the list includes two
record-breaking teams–the 1998 Yankees and 2001 Mariners–plus a team that
might have been just as good as those two but played a shortened season, the
1995 Indians. Twenty-one of 22 teams finished above .500, 19 finished no worse
than in second place and 16 of them made the postseason.
In the divisional era, having a .360 team OBP gives you a better than 70%
chance of being a playoff team. The Yankees have more going for them than just
a high OBP, but it’s that high OBP–in fact, a historic one–that drives their
offense and their chance of winning a ninth consecutive AL East crown.