The three days of the All-Star break present a rare opportunity for
baseball fans to catch their breath. Here at Baseball Prospectus,
we’re just like the rest of you, looking both back at the three months
past, and ahead to see what we can expect over the stretch run.
Over the next week, we’ll be running second-half outlooks for each
division, beginning with the
National League Central,
so you can see what we think will happen–and what should happen–in August and
And with a chance to look back, eight members of our staff took the time to
vote for their top 10 everyday players, top eight pitchers top six rookies
and top eight teams of the first half. Following are the results, and the
number of ballots the player was mentioned on in parentheses. You can
also see the
voting and commentary of the individual voters.
Players of the Year
Derek Jeter 80 (8) Jeff Bagwell 67 (8) Nomar Garciaparra 46 (7) Ken Griffey Jr. 40 (8) Chipper Jones 34 (6) Sean Casey 32 (7) Shawn Green 32 (7) Manny Ramirez 26.5 (5) Larry Walker 15 (3) Roberto Alomar 13.5 (4) Jason Kendall 12 (4) Alex Rodriguez 12 (2) Tony Fernandez 7 (1) Bernie Williams 5 (3) Luis Gonzalez 4 (2) Mike Lieberthal 4 (1) Andruw Jones 3 (1) Mike Piazza 3 (1) David Nilsson 2 (1) Bob Abreu 1 (1) Mark McGwire 1 (1)
The Prospectus staff unanimously recognized Derek Jeter as
the best everyday player in the game so far. Jeff Bagwell,
meanwhile, was rated as the best National League player on all but one
ballot. The two stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
There was also little disagreement that Nomar Garciaparra,
Chipper Jones, Shawn Green, Sean Casey and Ken
Griffey, Jr. belonged on this list. On the other hand, voters split on
which Indian, Roberto Alomar or Manny Ramirez, is that team’s
MVP. Larry Walker appeared on only three of the eight ballots,
highlighting disagreements among the staff as to how much Coors Field’s
effects should be taken into account.
National League catchers, especially the injured Jason Kendall,
received a surprising amount of support as a result of their unusually high
level of play during the first half. Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez
appeared on only two ballots, but clearly would have ranked higher had he
not missed significant time to injury.
Pitchers of the Year
Pedro Martinez 64 (8) Randy Johnson 52 (8) Curt Schilling 43 (7) Jeff Zimmerman 34 (7) David Cone 29 (7) Jose Rosado 15 (6) Kevin Millwood 8 (3) Omar Olivares 7.5 (4) Mike Hampton 7 (3) Mike Sirotka 7 (2) Jose Lima 6 (2) Omar Daal 4 (1) Scott Williamson 4 (1) Billy Wagner 3 (2) Brad Radke 2.5 (2) Jeff Suppan 1 (1) Mike Mussina 1 (1)
Pedro Martinez was an easy unanimous pick for the BP staff. Randy
Johnson, meanwhile, edged out Curt Schilling as the best
National League pitcher in the first half. Texas’ great rookie reliever
Jeff Zimmerman finished an impressive fourth despite the voters’
general skepticism of relievers’ value. Zimmerman’s off-the-charts
statistics and his usage patterns made a very strong impression on the staff.
While David Cone‘s excellent season has gone mostly unnoticed by the
press, his effectiveness earned him strong support from the voters, as did
Jose Rosado‘s strong pitching for the Royals in the face of
lackluster run support. Omar Olivares also appeared on half the
ballots despite wariness that his effectiveness will continue.
Rookies of the Year
Jeff Zimmerman 46 (8) Jeff Weaver 32 (8) Carlos Febles 24 (8) Ronnie Belliard 21 (7) John Halama 16 (7) Scott Williamson 11 (4) Warren Morris 10 (3) Alex Gonzalez 4 (2) Chris Singleton 3 (2) Vladimir Nunez 1 (1)
Despite a deep crop of rookies, the vote for the top rookies in the first
half featured surprising unanimity. Jeff Zimmerman‘s magical first
half made him the obvious top choice; he is, after all, the only player on
this list who was also voted a top everyday player or pitcher. Jeff
Weaver, the Tiger rookie starter who jumped to the majors less than a
year after being drafted, impressed the voters with his immediate impact
and was the only player besides Zimmerman to receive a first-place vote.
Carlos Febles, the Royals’ second baseman, earned raves for his
outstanding performance in all aspects of the game and received the largest
support of any everyday player. Close behind was Ronnie Belliard,
another second baseman who, in only a short time with the Brewers, has
established himself as a star.
John Halama, one of the players the Mariners received in the Randy
Johnson trade last season, finished a strong fifth, appearing on seven
ballots. Scott Williamson, who finished sixth and appeared on half
the ballots, received support for being a slightly inferior National League
version of Jeff Zimmerman.
Top Eight Teams of the Half
Atlanta Braves 60 (8) Cleveland Indians 56 (8) New York Yankees 48 (8) Houston Astros 41 (8) Boston Red Sox 23 (7) Cincinnati Reds 23 (7) New York Mets 11 (4) San Francisco Giants 9 (5) Arizona Diamondbacks 9 (4) Texas Rangers 4 (3) Toronto Blue Jays 4 (2)
No one should find this list particularly surprising. The four best teams
combined for 205 of a possible 208 "top four" points.
The voters clearly do not have much regard for West division teams in
either league. Despite Arizona’s first half success, the BP staff remains
skeptical of the Diamondbacks, but that skepticism doesn’t translate into
support for the Giants, the D’backs closest division rival. Some voters
even think the so-far hapless Dodgers have a chance to right themselves and
make a strong showing in that division.
Meanwhile, spotty first halves for the Braves and Astros haven’t diminished
the group’s belief that those two are the teams to beat in the NL. The
divisional rivals of the top two NL squads, the Mets and the Reds, look
like they’ll fight it out for the wild card.
In the American League, the voters seem to think that the Indians and
Yankees are still clearly the class teams of their divisions, and that the
Red Sox have enough pitching to hold on to the wild card, with the Blue
Jays remaining their most likely competition. As for the AL West, Johnny
Oates gets credit for keeping a team with little starting pitching at the
top, but their 11th-place finish in the poll is a better indication of what
kind of team they are.