Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
I'm a dinosaur in the Statcast era—still getting used to this whole newfangled thing. But allow me to throw some numbers at you.




Exit Velocity (mph)



FB+LD exit velocity



Barrels per ball in play



Correa improved his exit velocity both overall and on fl balls and line drives from 2015 to 2016, yet he barreled up fewer balls in 2016. Indeed, he arguably made better contact in general this year than in his explosive debut. Better overall contact should correlate with more barrels. Was his 2015 season lucky or his 2016 unlucky? It may not matter, given how many groundballs he hits. The formal Statcast Barrel depends on not only exit velocity but also vertical angle—something Correa fails to optimize. His coin-flip ground-ball rate truly is a waste of talent; his rate of HR:FB the last two years ranks among the likes of Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, and J.D. Martinez.

It's hard to peg Correa for much more than 25 home runs, a dozen stolen bases and a .280 batting average. Not that that's bad. It's really good. But everything is relative. In an era when middle infielders are more productive than ever, and when speed is exceptionally scarce relative to power, Correa's profile doesn't impress all that much. It's crazy to say it. But if Jonathan Villar and the likes of Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Xander Bogaerts weren't around, Correa would be really impressive. They water down his value. That he was barely a top-10 shortstop and not even a top-50 overall player last year per ESPN's Player Rater speaks volumes. No need to burn the top shortstop pick on him. –Alex Chamberlain

Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals
There are two common reactions to making a mistake. The first is to dig in, refuse to admit wrongdoing, and to “double down” on the error. The second common reaction is to overcompensate the other way. There is a lot of this going on with Diaz, a prospect who was viewed as a failure by many entering 2016 and someone who would be a utility infielder long term. Diaz defied those expectations and is likely to be a decent starter for the Cardinals, but he is being drafted like he should be owned in all fantasy formats. This is a mistake, and the type of gross overcompensation I mentioned above. After a ridiculous April where he hit .423, Diaz cooled off, finishing with a .277 AVG from May 1st onward. Even worse, his batted ball profile reveals a hitter who pitchers caught up with quickly. In April, Diaz had a .413 BABIP, a 22.4 percent line drive rate, a 9.5 percent infield fly ball rate, a 16.5 percent opposite field rate, and a 41.8 percent hard hit ball rate. From May 1st forward, he had a .289 BABIP, 13.9 percent line drive rate, 14 percent infield fly rate, 24.6 percent opposite field rate, and a 29.1 percent hard hit ball rate. Pitchers started challenging Diaz, and while he didn’t completely collapse, the results were rather underwhelming, and in line with hitters with much softer contact profiles. If Diaz is a 15-20 home run shortstop with a .270 AVG and no steals, that isn’t a top-10 shortstop. –Mike Gianella

Brad Miller, Tampa Bay Rays
Shortstop is an extremely top-heavy position, but if you wait you’ll end up with some tough decisions in the middle-to-late rounds. Currently, according to NFBC ADP data, Brad Miller is the 12th shortstop being taken off the board. Even with the big drop off in talent at his position, that seems far too early to me.

Selecting Miller in this spot (160 overall) is entirely banking on his power from last year being for real. In 2016, he mashed 30 home runs, which would clearly justify his current ADP. However, prior to that he had never hit more than 11 home runs. It’s true that he left Safeco, but it’s not as if he went to a home run haven in Tropicana field last year. In fact, it was a downgrade. Miller also didn’t add a ton of flyballs to his batted ball profile, instead relying on an entirely inflated HR:FB ratio. It’s hard to see Miller topping 20 home runs again in 2017, which would be a huge downgrade.

Beyond that, he offers little help in AVG with his high strikeout rate, a stolen base ceiling around 10 and a bad lineup that won’t help his contextual stats. If you are going to wait at shortstop, I’d skip right over Miller and keep waiting a round (or a few rounds) for Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien, or Brandon Crawford. –Matt Collins

Eduardo Nunez, San Francisco Giants
I have long loved Eduardo Nunez—he hit the ball to all fields, he ran around the bases like a wild man, and was not an old plodder (albeit productive, old plodders) like most of the rest of the Yankees' lineup at the time. Moreover, Nunez, at least the kind of player he was in 2016, is currently the type of player that is being underrated (high AVG with some steals). So why do I recommend avoiding him? Because there is just too much that could go wrong, and too much that needs to go right, for him to earn his NFBC ADP of 116. Given his history, he is a serious regression candidate for power and playing time (and thus runs, RBI, and steals); and that is before we even get into his move to AT&T Park. I'll be rooting for Nunez, but it is very unlikely that I will be paying up for him. –Jeff Quinton

Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
Why don’t you let me tell you a little story (I promise I won’t do it again) about last season? The Colorado Rockies had a shortstop who took the baseball world by storm. Trevor Story hit seven home runs in his first six games, and expectations ran wild regarding his potential end of season stat totals. Unfortunately, a torn UCL in his thumb ended Story’s season after 97 games. Despite the injury, he gave fantasy owners plenty to dream on for 2017.

There are obvious reasons for optimism with Story. He gets to play his home games in Colorado which is always a plus. He did hit 27 home runs in those 97 games, and the power looks legitimate. It’s not difficult to envision him hitting 30+ home runs a season over the next handful of years.

So why am I avoiding Story in 2017? His 31.3 percent strikeout rate was the worst at the position. His batting average could easily drop if that rate holds, or if his .343 BABIP comes down. Also, MLB pitchers have now had a full offseason to prepare for Story. Owners should always be cautious about a player following his breakout season. It can be incredibly difficult to replicate those results.

Those aren’t the only concerns you might have with Story. His 23.7 HR/FB rate could easily regress this season. That rate puts him among some of baseball’s elite home run hitters. It would be nice to see a repeat of that performance before expecting it. There’s also the issue of how he’ll bounce back from a surgically repaired thumb.

It is possible Story could have an incredibly productive 2017. However, Matt Collins noted from early ADP data that Story is getting drafted in the third round. Acquiring him isn’t going to be cheap, and he simply comes with too many question marks to be worth that kind of investment. —Eric Roseberry

Jean Segura, Seattle Mariners
Of all the players in Major League Baseball, I think Jean Segura is the most qualified one to appear both on the “Players to Target” and “Players to Avoid” lists. He’s a Rorschach test for your biases; Do you believe that, following a career year in Arizona, he is likely to put up even 75 percent of that season in Seattle? If so, you should target him, because there are going to be plenty of people like me who believe the answer is “no.” Yes, he will have good speed, as always, and yes, I was personally, mercilessly burned by him couple years ago, so my own biases are playing on me… but come on. Regression, thy name is Segura. Stay away.

Last year, he hit .319/.368/.499 over 637 at-bats, the most in the league. That is comically impressive. He hit 20 homers and stole 33 bases. That is also good. He did it all in Phoenix, which is a good place to hit, but where he no longer plays. He now plays in one of the game’s premier pitcher’s parks, albeit for a team that scores a ton of runs. Somehow I don’t think it’s going to help his .353 BABIP improve, but his RBI chances seem to be better, right? I guess, but he so, so outperformed his career stats last season that I have to think that the forthcoming regression is of the malignant variety.

Somebody’s probably going to buy him like he’s an automatic, no-doubt starter. He may end up that way, but I wouldn’t bet on it. In fact, I’d bet against it. You don’t have to be as pessimistic as I am to stay away; you merely don’t need to be as optimistic as his biggest fan. After an overhyped start to his career, there’s bound to be someone who thinks 2016 Segura is going to suit back up for the Mariners this year. Let them think it, and let them overspend for him. You can be… secure in your decision.

Thank you for reading

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I completely understand the Story doubt considering he wasn't over hyped and was a prospect in a small market, but on paper that HR/FB rate is completely backed up with an avg HR+FB dist that is 10ft longer than every other player except Moss, plus he's in Coors. The BB% went up and the K% went down every month last season. His pitches per PA were among the best and his exit velo was plus. The LD% is plus. The SwStr% and K% are high, but like I said he made more contact every month up to I believe 75% prior to his injury. Add in that lineup and he seems like a SSS to buy into unlike Sanchez who's HR/FB rate was 40% with a 50% GB% and all kinds of, "how did he do that" stats.
I guess I get the ADP is high bc of the SSS and injury, but this is an Ox of a kid with plus athleticism all the way around. His minor league OBP was .360, so it's not like his TTO approach is new at the MLB level.
Not trying to say your wrong it just seems like unless the prospect was tabbed as a potential star prior to his debut, becoming a star after is subjected to much more criticism. He was a 5-tool "unconventional" huge upside rule 4 pick. I think the athleticism migrated into baseball skills much more than anticipated.
Don't worry, he will be terrible and you can reply to this in Sept. ha
Oh I could absolutely be wrong about this. i could be very, very, very wrong.

I completely agree with you on the power. I don't think there's any reason to doubt it, and he's in a great park. I think my biggest concern would be how pitchers are going to adjust to Story this season. It might not matter much at all. But with Story requiring that high of a draft pick I'd just feel more comfortable with someone who's shown this level of production over more than one season.

Of course he's going to hit 45 home runs and I'm frantically going to try and erase this.

I'm only stating there's real talent in Story. Any player with his SSS and K issue has a low floor bc it's essentially a 40% K% and demoted to the minors. See: Joey Gallo.
I'm just trying to turn the guys who think he's a total flash because he wasn't gushed over by every prospect outlet.
Thanks. BP is killing the fantasy stuff right now. "To many articles" detailing value does not exist. :)