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Last Year’s Dodgers List

The State of the System: The Dodgers graduated two of the top prospects in baseball, traded three pretty good ones, and still have a very good system. Meanwhile, somewhere in the South of France, Frank McCourt is spending too much for a 30-year-old midfielder. Living well is the best revenge.

The Top Ten

  1. RHP Yadier Alvarez
  2. 1B/OF Cody Bellinger
  3. RHP Jose De Leon
  4. OF Alex Verdugo
  5. ​OF Yusniel Diaz
  6. RHP Walker Buehler
  7. OF Andrew Toles
  8. 2B Willie Calhoun
  9. SS Gavin Lux
  10. RHP Jordan Sheffield

The Big Question: So what do the Dodgers do for an encore?

If you’ll pardon the intrusion, I’d like to begin by talking about football for a second, if I may. And not the kind that Paternostro speaks in tongues about on Twitter all the time. I mean the American kind. The New England Patriots clinched their sixth consecutive AFC championship appearance the other day, and it got me to thinking about sustained excellence and strategic execution. Bill Belichick is a defensive coach, first and foremost, and one of his fundamental strategic priorities over the years has been to design week-to-week defensive schemes built around limiting the contributions of his opponent’s best offensive skill player. His aim is to remove the opposition’s primary advantage, and in so doing force answers from his opposite number to an unpleasant question: how am I going to go about beating you without access to my biggest advantage?

Well, the Dodgers currently find themselves staring down the sleeveless barrel of that conundrum, at least insofar as it relates to talent pipelines and international spending. The new CBA drastically limits the overall pool of money designated to signing international talent, and places hard caps on per-team expenditures. This is, of course, bad news for teams with money to throw at international talent. And that makes it catastrophic news for the Dodgers.

I detailed the club’s recent pattern of international largesse last winter, and I noted the front office ramifications of their strategy in another piece around that time. The punchline to both is that the franchise was among the deadliest deadbeats in open revolt against the previous international spending system, advance-staffing in bulk and utilizing its financial girth to cyclically binge on massive amounts of raw talent—talent which played a significant role in building the club’s top-ranked system heading into this past season.

Fast forward to the present, and the carbon footprint from the team’s most recent pipeline adjustment is starting to set in the skies above, albeit with significant shape-shifting still to be done. Big-dollar investment has placed two players in the current top five, and the complex levels are overflowing with six-or-better-figure talent that already flashes top-of-the-system potential to sustain the run. After signing for more than $5.5 million combined on the first day of the 2015-2016 signing period, Starling Heredia, Ronny Brito, and Oneil Cruz, all turned heads at the team’s Dominican complex last summer, while switch-hitting outfielder Carlos Rincon flashed massive power in Arizona after migrating north mid-season. Meanwhile, $6 million Cuban man Omar Estevez flashed across-the-board skills in his own stateside debut. Hell, even Yaisel Sierra, whose $30 million price tag looks like a significant overpay, found velocity and effectiveness after a transition to the bullpen and now looks the part of at least a potentially useful big-league bullpen arm. The last hurrah may be a rager for the record books.

Then again…these Dodgers of today, they’re a smart bunch. And a rich bunch. And that combination can make for some difficulties in pinpointing primary advantage. The suggestion of international might as primary separator may not actually end up holding much in the way of water when we jump back up to 30,000 feet.

The early returns on the club’s 2016 Rule IV Draft, for example, look just delightful. Five of our 15 player write-ups below involve picks from last summer’s class. Even while acknowledging graduation and turnover, it is still somewhat of a remarkable testament to the depth of the Dodgers’ board that such digit ink should be spilled on newcomers to the reigning top system in baseball. The preceding draft, for its part, has produced two top-tenners of its own, along with the organization’s newly-minted minor league player of the year.

We are too far in the thick of it all to render proper judgment on any of these players, but the early returns on the club’s most recent drafting efforts are the good kind. And it’s enough to glean hope that the franchise’s player development process will remain well-positioned to succeed even with one of its greatest advantages neutralized over the run of the next CBA. — Wilson Karaman

***

1. Yadier Alvarez, RHP
DOB: 03/07/1996
Height/Weight: 6’3” 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 2015 out of Cuba for $16 million
Previous Ranking(s): #6 (Org.)
2016 Stats: 1.80 ERA, 2.50 DRA, 20 IP, 9 H, 10 BB, 26 K in 5 games at Complex AZL, 2.29 ERA, 1.32 DRA, 39.1 IP, 31 H, 11 BB, 55 K in 9 games at Low-A Great Lakes

The Good: Big arm, good athlete. Fastball has been up to 100, although the velocity can vary depending on when you catch him. Projects as an easy plus-plus pitch regardless and gets some plane and arm-side run when he gets on top of it from his high three-quarters slot. His mid-80s slider projects as plus—flashes there now—with good late bite. His feel for the pitch improved throughout the season. There’s still some projection left in his lean, athletic frame. Unlikely he adds much more velocity but some added weight/strength might help tone down some of the effort in his delivery and make everything more repeatable generally.

The Bad: He can fly open at times and struggle with his command. The slider is still inconsistent at present, and the velocity and shape will vary a bit in his outings. He struggles to maintain his arm speed on the change or get it to turn over, although the best will show some good tumble. Below-average projection on the pitch at present could limit his ability to go through a lineup multiple times. He played around with a curve for a different look but there isn’t much there yet.

The Irrelevant: Midland, MI is home to the Great Lakes Loons and one of the 90 remaining Big Boy restaurants in America. And 16 million bucks will buy a whole lot of Famous Slim Jims.

The Role:

OFP 60—No. 3 starter or closer
Likely 55—Mid-rotation starter or late-inning arm

The Risks: Alvarez’s fastball/slider combo gives him a potential high-leverage reliever fallback role, but there’s still some risk here. The changeup needs a grade jump to even have a chance to stick in the rotation, and it’s still a little unclear where the fastball will sit over a 180-inning workload. Also, he’s a pitcher (who throws really, really hard).

Major league ETA: 2019

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Alvarez is one of the more attractive young arms in the low minors. His floor is fairly low, as you can probably tell from the writeup above, but his fantasy ceiling is a little loftier than the SP3 we see in his prospect writeup thanks to his strikeout potential. He’s most certainly a top-75 prospect, and he’s got a chance to flirt with the top-50. Big fastballs are a wonderful thing.

2. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF
DOB: 07/13/1995
Height/Weight: 6’4” 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the fourth round by Los Angeles in the 2013 MLB Draft, Hamilton HS (Chandler, AZ); signed for $700,000
Previous Ranking(s): #9 (Org.)
2016 Stats: .263/.359/.484, 23 HR, 8 SB in 114 games at Double-A Tulsa, .545/.583/1.364, 3 HR, 0 SB in 3 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City

The Good: Big kid, big raw, big leverage, big bat speed, big noise. 2016 proved he wasn’t just a Cal League mirage. Bellinger’s not a traditional corner masher either. He’s lean and athletic and has even been spotting Tulsa and OKC in center field from time to time. The power potential is plus-plus, He could win some gold gloves at first base if that’s his ultimate home.

The Bad: Bellinger can sell out to get to that big raw power, and there are potentially big strikeout numbers to go with the big dongs. Minor league arms will pitch around his big bat, but his actual approach lags behind the raw walk totals. He will expand the zone with two strikes. He’s not a center fielder, although he should be able to play some corner outfield as well.

The Irrelevant: Five players have played at least 20 games at both first base and center field in the same season this decade: Austin Romine, Wil Myers, Scott Van Slyke, and John Mayberry.

The Role:

OFP 60—First-division first baseman
Likely 55—Above-average first baseman

The Risks: Normally this is the spot where I gravely intone about the profile issues with a first base prospect. How the power really has to play in order to achieve that OFP. And all that applies here as well. But man, it sure looks right.

Major League ETA: Late 2017

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: I personally prefer Josh Bell because of his floor, but if you want to argue that Bellinger is the best first base prospect, I’ll listen. Bellinger has big-time power and big-time production, and while the strikeout issues are real so is the upside. He might only hit .240 or .250, but Bellinger could smash 30 bombs a year. That might come in the OF instead of at 1B, but if that’s the case you won’t be complaining.

3. Jose De Leon, RHP
DOB: 08/07/1992
Height/Weight: 6’2” 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 24th round by Los Angeles in the 2013 MLB Draft, Southern University; signed for $35,000
Previous Ranking(s): #3 (Org.)
2016 Stats: 6.35 ERA, 5.25 DRA, 17 IP, 19 H, 7 BB, 15 K, in 4 games at major league level, 2.61 ERA, 1.36 DRA, 86.1 IP, 61 H, 20 BB, 111 K in 16 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City

The Good: Armed with an above-average fastball, plus change, and adequate slider, De Leon’s top virtue is his ability to pound the zone with any offering. His fastball rests in the 90-93 band with occasional tail. He can run it up as 96, though that’s rare. Hitters tend to react late to it, though there’s not a ton of deception in the delivery, his mechanics are free and easy which might fool them. The cambio is the best offering in his arsenal, featuring plenty of depth and tumble.

The Bad: The fastball tends to lose its wiggle at higher velocities, so when he reaches back for a little extra, it tends to be too true. He likes to pitch up in the zone with the fastball and while this nets him swings and misses, it makes him homer prone as well. De Leon’s slider plays more fringy than average, due to its inconsistency, and if he’s not missing bats with it, hitters can sit on the change. His propensity to be around the zone without premium stuff contributes to his struggles with the longball as well. He’ll show a curveball in the mid 70s here and there, but it’s more of an option for sequencing than an integral part of his arsenal.

The Irrelevant: When he was in Little League he had the nickname “Nomar” after Garciaparra. We can thank Vin Scully for that one.

The Role:

OFP 55—Mid-rotation starter who misses a bunch of bats
Likely 50—Homer-prone no. 4 starter

The Risks: De Leon had a relatively extended major-league trial for a prospect, so there are few timeline issues. The risks are whether MLB hitters will pick up on his fastball better than minor leaguers did, and if he’s one of those guys who might be around the zone a little too much. The MiLB numbers are daunting, but the stuff belies more of a mid-rotation profile. He is, though, a pitcher.

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2016 —Craig Goldstein

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: You know what? I like De Leon. Sure, he might just be a mid-rotation starter, but I think he’ll be a damn good one, and I think his floor is just fine, too. At the end of the day you need pitchers in fantasy (unfortunately), and while De Leon’s ceiling won’t leave you with vertigo, his floor will make you feel cozy and safe. It’s ok to like him. He won’t hurt you.*

*He’s a pitcher, so …

Major League ETA: 2017

4. Alex Verdugo, OF
DOB: 05/15/1996
Height/Weight: 6’0” 205 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 62nd overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, Sahauro HS (Tucson, AZ); signed for $914,600
Previous Ranking(s): #7 (Org.)
2016 Stats: .273/.336/.407, 13 HR, 2 SB in 126 games at Double-A Tulsa

The Good: Verdugo has thrived despite being young at each level. He has an advanced hit tool that has a good chance to eventually grade out as plus, rarely striking out throughout his minor league career. He combines those bat-to-ball skills with a selective approach, resulting in limited strikeout totals. His gap power should play at major-league average for a corner outfielder, though given his youth, there’s time for him to develop more over-the-fence potential. Defensively, he has an absolute cannon for an arm—as well he should given his two-way status at draft time.

The Bad: He’s an average runner at present, and isn’t expected to contribute much on the base paths, and it push his ultimate home is in right field where the athleticism will play fine. There’s a chance the power doesn’t develop, making him more of a gap-to-gap doubles hitter with fringe power. His bat speed can leave evaluators wanting more at times, and he can rely too heavily on his bat-to-ball, leaving him as a slap hitter when he isn’t feeling it at the plate.

The Irrelevant: Per Google translate, Verdugo means "executioner" or "hangman."

The Role:

OFP 60—Hit-first center fielder
Likely 50—Second-division right fielder

The Risks: There are a lot of moving parts to his setup in the box, and while it hasn’t caused issues so far, it can’t yet be ruled out moving forward. His athleticism leaves him on the fringe of being able to stick in center, and the ceiling takes a hit if he shifts to right. If the power doesn’t develop and the hit tool takes a step back, he could profile more as a fourth outfielder. There’s some positive risk in the hit tool as well, as the arrival of some power paired with his contact rate could make him a dangerous hitter.

Major league ETA: 2018 —Matt Pullman

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: I won’t lie to you; I’d underrated Verdugo’s hit tool to this point. There’s a chance he gets stuck in a tweener profile, and that would stink, but Verdugo has a solid enough bat and a good enough chance for nice power that we need to pay attention. If it all comes together, we’re looking at a high-quality OF3. If the pop never comes or the hit tool doesn’t play at the MLB level, you’ll be underwhelmed, but that’s pretty much true of every prospect. This isn’t the most illuminating fantasy writeup of all time, but honestly, there are so many potential versions of Verdugo that I don’t quite know what to make of him yet.

5. Yusniel Diaz, OF
DOB: 10/07/1996
Height/Weight: 6’1” 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed November 2015 out of Cuba for $15.5 million
Previous Ranking(s): #8 (Org.)
2016 Stats: .143/.143/.357, 1 HR, 0 SB in 3 games at complex-level AZL, .272/.333/.418, 8 HR, 7 SB in 82 games at High-A Rancho Cucamonga

The Good: Diaz shows across-the-board tools, highlighted by the ingredients for an above-average hit tool. He has outstanding wrist and hand strength, allowing him to thrash the barrel into the zone with above-average bat speed. Coupled with strong pitch recognition skills, the swing-and-miss is limited and he demonstrates advanced survival skills with two strikes. He showed an increased willingness and ability to add situational leverage to his stroke, syncing his lower half better and driving the ball pull-side as the season wore on. He’s currently an above-average runner, though he may ultimately settle in at average, and he possesses the physical tools to handle center field capably down the line. He gets high marks for his makeup and quick adjustment during his stateside debut.

The Bad: There aren’t a ton of holes to point to in Diaz’s game, though the present skillset is of the raw variety. His swing plane tends to stay on the flatter side, and while he showed improvement, he can still be vulnerable on the inner-third thanks to some bat wrap and length into the zone. His feel for timing and exploiting pitchers on the base paths isn’t there yet, and he struggles to get clean releases on stolen base attempts. He can lose his game clock and rush plays in the field, and his reads on trajectory in center are inconsistent.

The Irrelevant: There have been 25 men with the surname of Diaz to step between the lines in a big-league game, including three (Aledmys, Edwin, and Dayan) who made their debuts last season.

The Role:

OFP 55—Above-average CF
Likely 50—Average regular with some versatility

The Risks: He retains some elements of risk on account of the remaining gap between present and future skill, but his broad base of tools and demonstrated growth and development as one of the youngest regulars in the Cal League lends significant cause for optimism regarding his probability as a future big-league asset.

Major league ETA: 2019 —Wilson Karaman

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: At the risk of being too aggressive on lots of Dodgers prospects, I like Diaz. The tools are well-rounded, he’s got just enough impact potential to catch my eye and he performed well in his first professional season stateside. If we’re talking best-case scenario, Diaz is a five-tool contributor who hits for a good average and contributes meaningfully everywhere else. Worst case, Diaz is … well … a really boring modest five-category contributor, like, Dexter Fowler? You could do worse.

6. Walker Buehler, RHP
DOB: 7/28/1994
Height/Weight: 6’2” 175 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 24th overall in 2015 MLB Draft, Vanderbilt University (Nashville, TN); signed for $1.78 million
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: 0.00 ERA, 2.79 DRA, 2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 1 game at Complex AZL, 0.00 ERA, 4.76 DRA, 3 IP, 0 H, 3 BB, 3 K in Low-A Great Lakes

The Good: Buehler had a potential front-of-the-rotation arsenal as an amateur, and his first few pro appearances coming off Tommy John surgery showed it was still in there. He was up to 97 in short bursts and sat in the mid-90 with arm-side run. His curveball and changeup both project as above-average pitches, and his 11-5 breaker has a chance to get better then even that.

The Bad: We can quibble about his command of the stuff in 2016, but he’s a year off Tommy John surgery, so whatever. The bigger issue is he has a small, lean frame that may not hold up to the rigors of a major-league starter’s workload, and there’s already effort in the delivery now. As mentioned, he’s already got a major arm surgery under his belt at 22.

The Irrelevant: Walker is the fourth Buehler…Buehler…Buehler….Buehler…in pro baseball. None have made the majors so far.

The Role:

OFP 60—No. 3 starter
Likely 45—Backend starter with durability issues or good bullpen arm

The Risks: Buehler is only a year removed from surgery, we really don’t know if the stuff will come all the way back yet, although (very) early returns are quite good. The professional track record is limited. And he’s a recently-injured pitcher.

Major league ETA: 2019

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: There’s some upside here, but Buehler’s recent injury history and potential future as a reliever conspire to limit his fantasy upside. I do love ceilings, so Buehler might be a top-100 guy, but it’ll be close, and I’d bet the under.

7. Andrew Toles, OF
DOB: 5/14/1992
Height/Weight: 5’10” 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the third round in 2012 MLB Draft, Chipola Junior College (Chipola, FL); signed for $394,200
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: .314/.365/.505, 3 HR, 1 SB in 48 games at major league level, .370/.414/.500, 0 HR, 9 SB in 22 games for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, .314/.363/.514, 5 HR, 13 SB in 43 games at Double-A Tulsa, .321/.339/.518, 2 HR, 1 SB in 17 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City

The Good: Toles generates excellent early momentum into his swing, getting the barrel on-plane early, and driving into the zone quickly. His short stroke and quality barrel control produces hard contact against velocity, and he demonstrates an intelligent situational approach at the plate. While he lacks for a ton of loft in the stroke, he has sneaky strength to drive pitches with some carry. His foot speed pushes plus-plus, and he’s an instinctual base runner who draws full utility out of the tool when he’s on base. The arm is another asset, playing at least to plus (and with more consistent accuracy possibly above it) from left or center fields.

The Bad: Off-field issues have caused a ton of lost developmental time along the way, and his route-running and execution in the outfield wore some of those lost reps last year. He struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, becoming more of a slap-and-dash hitter and struggling to defend as well with two strikes. He likes to extend on the ball, and while he covers the outside corner well as a result there is some ensuing inner-third vulnerability.

The Irrelevant: Chipola College, where Toles wound up after getting kicked off his team at Tennessee, has produced an impressive amount of big-league talent over the years, with alumni tallying north of 18,000 big-league at-bats and hurling more than 1,400 innings. Toles has a long way to go to catch up with current all-time WARP leader Russell Martin, who is sitting on 55.4 as of this writing.

The Role:

OFP 55—Above-average regular on the strength of his speed and defense
Likely 45—Second-division regular/strong-side platoon fourth outfielder

The Risks: Toles’ baseball skills were remarkably intact after his return from a year-and-a-half layoff from competition, and he kept right on producing at every stop up to and including Chavez Ravine. The long history of disciplinary issues remain branded to his Permanent Record, though last year’s successful reintegration to the game marked a very encouraging development. There are a couple holes in the offensive approach and enough questions about his defensive development that it is wise to continue keeping expectations in check, but he has already proven his worth as a “now” asset who should be able to fill a demonstrable role on the Dodgers’ 25-man roster all year, and if he can learn to hit lefties, there is some growth potential there as well.

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2016 —Wilson Karaman

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Toles is probably just a platoon outfielder, and it’s hard to make that terribly sexy in fantasy. You might want to own him over the next few years if he’s playing and your league is deep, but he’s not a franchise maker or breaker.

8. Willie Calhoun, 2B
DOB: 11/4/1994
Height/Weight: 5’8” 187 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the fourth round in 2015 MLB Draft, Yavapai College (Prescott, AZ); signed for $347,500
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: .254/.318/.469, 27 HR, 0 SB in 132 games at Double-A Tulsa

The Good: Calhoun has outstanding pop for a guy his size. He utilizes a low center of gravity and a compact frame to generate double-plus bat speed, giving the ball a distinct sound off his barrel. He’s a selective hitter and uses his small strike zone and quick hands to his advantage, keeping his strikeout totals low.

The Bad: The combination of poor athleticism and an unpolished glove makes it a near certainty that Calhoun will provide limited defensive value. He doesn’t have a particularly strong arm, and can look awkward when forced to use it outside of routine plays. The lack of speed and poor physique will likely prevent him from contributing much on the basepaths, and his aging curve could be expedited as a result.

The Irrelevant: Kole Calhoun also went to Yavapai College, but they are not related.

The Role:

OFP 55—High-end bat whose overall value is limited by defensive issues
Likely 45—A 5-foot-8 DH

The Risks: If Calhoun doesn’t hit, he’s not a major leaguer. There are additional concerns as to how well his body will age, so while the likely might feel conservative, it is taking into account significant downside-risk.

Major league ETA: Late 2017 —Matt Pullman

BenCarsley’s Fantasy Take: I really don’t know what to make of Calhoun. I hope he hits because he’s a ton of fun, but I’m worried that the defensive profile will prevent him from accumulating bats. Keep following him because he’s a fun story, and feel free to pull the trigger if you roster 150-plus prospects, but I can’t get more aggressive on him yet.

9. Gavin Lux, SS
DOB: 11/23/1997
Height/Weight: 6’2” 190 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 20th overall in the 2016 MLB Draft from Indian Trail HS (Kenosha, WI); signed for $2,314,500
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: .281/.365/.385, 0 HR, 1 SB in 48 games at Complex AZL, .387/.441/.484, 0 HR, 1 SB in 8 games at short-season Ogden

The Good: Lux grew into his body from his junior year, adding speed and power to his frame, ultimately becoming the fourth-highest player drafted from Wisconsin. Lux excels defensively with a plus arm, plus actions, and soft quick hands. He could be a plus defender at the six, or any of the infield positions. He features plus bat speed and the loft to potentially slug double-digit home runs at the big-league level.

The Bad: He does have a hitch in his load, which was still present through his first year in pro ball. He is more an average runner, which means he isn’t likely to produce much in the way of stolen bases. The power, which showed up in spades this spring, is mostly projection to play to average in-game.

The Irrelevant: His uncle is Augie Schmidt, who was the second-overall pick in the 1982 draft and the Golden Spikes Award Winner at University of New Orleans.

The Role:

OFP 55—Above-average regular
Likely 45—Defense-first SS who can still contribute with the bat

The Risks: Younger player, the power, which showed up in the spring wasn’t present in his first full-season. A cold-weather kid, he could have a longer developmental path than others. His body is somewhat filled out, leaving little room for overall projection.

Major league ETA: 2020 —Steve Givarz

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: Lux is too far away to start pining over now, but he’s got the offensive tools we crave in an infielder. If you separate your watch list into tiers, put him in the first one.

10. Jordan Sheffield, RHP
DOB: 6/1/1995
Height/Weight: 6’0” 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws:
R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 36th overall in 2016 MLB Draft, Vanderbilt University (Nashville, TN); signed for $1.85 million
Previous Ranking(s): N/A
2016 Stats: 0.00 ERA, 4.12 DRA, 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 1 game at Complex AZL, 4.09 ERA, 4.42 DRA, 11 IP, 11 H, 6 BB, 13 K in 7 games at Low-A Great Lakes

The Good: Sheffield has a power pitcher’s arsenal. The fastball regularly bumped 96-97 in short bursts as a pro even after a long NCAA season at Vandy. It sat in the mid-90s as a starter in college and it’s a plus offering due to the velocity and some deception in his delivery. He pairs it with a low-80s curve. At its best the breaker will show late, two-plane break although it can show as a flatter, power slurve at times. Both versions are effective at inducing swing-and-miss, and it also projects as a plus offering.

The Bad: Sheffield has a TJ in his medical file already and ticks just about every other box for the “future reliever” tag. It’s a high-effort delivery that leaves him prone to command issues. His changeup has some projection due to its dive and velocity (high-80s), but it’s his clear third pitch at the moment. Sheffield’s fastball doesn’t have much in the way of plane or wiggle, and he may not be able to overpower pro hitters with it as easily as he did SEC ones.

The Irrelevant: Sheffield’s younger brother, Justus, is in the Yankees system. You may have heard of him.

The Role:

OFP 55—Mid-rotation starter or late inning reliever
Likely 45—Set-up guy with durability issues

The Risks: He’s an undersized righty (I double-checked this time) with a checkered injury history and a high-effort delivery. Can’t quibble with the fastball/curve combo though, and he could move quickly through the minors if he stays healthy. Which he may not, because he’s a pitcher.

Major league ETA: Early 2018 as a reliever, late 2018 as a starter

Ben Carsley’s Fantasy Take: The Dodgers don’t have a great track record with these guys and the upside is very modest. Move along.

Others of note:

#11

Dustin May, RHP
I will confess readers, I argued for May over Sheffield despite the gap in draft pedigree. I would have even drafted them in the same order if I was running the war room (Let’s talk game theory…). But May is just aesthetically what I want in a pitching prospect, even down to the plus-plus ginger locks. He’s a tall, lean Texan that oozes projection and already sits in the low 90s with late life on the heater. The slider is advanced for his age, a fast-spinning, big-tilt offering appropriately right out of tornado alley. I’ll even offer you the requisite pablum here about his increasing feel for the change. May’s almost a half decade away, but man does he look the part—equal parts Syndergaard, deGrom, and Bobby Kielty. It’s a heady brew, and honestly I’d have to be a little high to put him over an arm with Sheffield’s polish and stuff, so he’s down here instead. But I did strenuously argue my case. Because sometimes these dudes do turn into Noah Syndergaard after all.

All of The 5:00 Power

Johan Mieses, OF
If nothing else, Mieses is certainly a living embodiment of the ol’ “swing hard in case you hit it” adage. The Dodgers spent a bunch of time last summer tweaking Mieses’ setup and launch in order to quiet down copious amounts of early-progression noise and get him quicker into the zone. But in spite of some gains in power utility, the swing-and-miss issues largely persisted as he continued to demonstrate oftentimes wild aggressiveness against anything that was soft or spinning. Mieses is adept at hunting fastballs and punishing mistakes, particularly from lefthanders, but the approach issues remain a significant detriment to his hit tool and, with it, his ultimate projection. He’s an all-out ball hawk in the outfield with plenty of arm for right and at least some occasional utility in center still possible. But the reads and feel of a true center fielder aren’t there, and the offensive profile points more in the direction of lefty-mashing fourth outfielder than future regular. —Wilson Karaman

The Austin Barnes All Star

Will Smith, C
The Dodgers’ first pick in the supplemental round last summer, Smith was an advanced college catcher who ended the year with a 25-game run catching and handling multiple infield positions at High-A. As the positional assignments indicate, Smith offers a rare brand of athleticism behind the dish, and it fuels one of the fastest transfers in the minor leagues. His pop technique and arm strength are both assets behind the plate, helping drive a 42 percent caught-stealing rate across three levels after signing. His blocking is still a work in progress, but he shows strong hands and framing potential around the margins of the zone, and the whole package of an above-average defensive catcher is there. The bat’s future is somewhat less clear; he grinds out at-bats and gets the barrel into the zone quickly enough to limit swing-and-miss, but he showed some vulnerability to velocity after signing and lacks for much of an “attack mode” at present. His on-base skills should help the hit tool play up, and if they max out the defensive profile is there to usher him into a majority-start role at the highest level. —Wilson Karaman

The Helium Potential

Mitchell White, RHP
White snuck up on draft board creators after undergoing Tommy John surgery and a stint in the bullpen at Santa Clara, but the Dodgers saw enough promise in his arsenal and athleticism to pop him in the second round last June. The early returns certainly appeared to validate that decision, albeit across the smallest of samples. His fastball sat 92-94 at season’s end with late life and a shared tunnel with a filthy high-80s cutter. The cut features outsized horizontal movement for the velocity and projects as a true plus weapon that can tie up quality left-handed bats. There’s above-average depth to his complementary curveball, though the pitch can show with some hump out of his hand. A nascent changeup lags as an under-utilized and undeveloped final piece of the puzzle. White’s up-tempo delivery will run into some pace and timing issues at present, but his fluidity and body control is apparent, and it is not at all difficult to envision greater consistency and repeatability coming with more post-surgery reps. Between college and his professional debut he managed to log triple-digit innings, and if the breaking ball and change can continue progressing while the stamina builds, he’s a guy with the potential to rise up the ranks quickly over the next 12 months. —Wilson Karaman

Wilson’s Guy

Brock Stewart, RHP
A former sixth-rounder, Stewart has all the size and stuff you look for to round out a rotation. His four-seamer has ticked up into 93-94 sitting range over the past couple years, and he commands it very well to both sides of the plate with life and above-average movement. He pairs it with a change that can play up into plus range thanks to quality arm speed replication, good drop, and outstanding velocity separation. He struggled to consistently spin the ball in previous minor-league seasons, but his hard slider took a nice step forward this year and showed newfound and intriguing depth across several big-league outings. He’s the son of a former coach and current Rays’ scout, and his baseball intelligence shows in both repeatable mechanics and his ability to make in-game adjustments. He’ll enter 2017 offering quality rotation insurance and/or solid trade value as a ready-now arm. —Wilson Karaman

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/90 or later)

  1. Corey Seager
  2. Julio Urias
  3. ​Joc Pederson
  4. Yadier Alvarez
  5. Cody Bellinger
  6. ​Jose De Leon
  7. Alex Verdugo
  8. ​Yusniel Diaz
  9. Walker Buehler
  10. Andrew Toles

There are only three Dodgers who qualify for the 25-and-under list who aren’t discussed in detail above, but they are a doozy of a trio. Seager followed up a dynamic September cameo with a full-season .320 TAv that led to 6.7 WARP in his first full season (despite a negative FRAA). The top-overall prospect entering the season, Seager claimed an All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger Award, a Rookie of the Year Award, and finished third in MVP voting. He is, thanks to the free agent/service time relationship, one of the five most valuable assets in baseball at present. The only nagging question is that of how long he’ll last at his current position given his size (6-foot-5, 215 pounds), but better defensive positioning should help shore up any loss of range over the next few years, and the bat should be more than enough to carry the profile should he need to slide to third base.

Urias has progressed as linearly as we often tell you that prospects don’t, but still continues to confound. He set a career-high in innings pitched, he made his major-league and playoffs debuts, tied for the league lead in pickoffs (in only 77 innings), and generally was a grand success especially when taking age into account. That last part is relevant though. He’s now in the major leagues, and while his age relative to level matters when projecting him forward (to a degree), the results he gets in the here and now matter more than ever before, so his DRA of 3.97 should well be noted. It’s still an open question as to whether Urias can or will pitch a full slate of innings next year, and how his stuff will hold up to the effects of turning a lineup over a third time (something he largely avoided), how the league will react, and what the effect of a full(er) season will be on the quality of his offerings. He’s shown the ability to adapt and handle adversity though, and it’s fair to maintain high expectations for him. Even without the ace-level stuff of a Noah Syndergaard, Urias’ three-pitch mix and control should allow him to navigate the rigors of the majors well, as he continues to sharpen his fine command and sequencing.

By TAv, Pederson had the second-best offensive performance on the team. People will recall his post-derby swoon in his Jekyll-Hyde rookie campaign, but it’s worth noting the adjustments made over the course of the 2016 season. He slashed .260/.380/.520 in the second half of the season, and his FRAA jumped from -21 to -1, culminating in a 3.5-WARP season. Dave Roberts hid him against southpaws (only 77 plate appearances against LHP), which might have contributed to jump in his rate output but also provides a window into where his next area to improve lies. His .469 OPS against same-side pitching leaves a lot of room for growth, and even a jump to merely “bad” against lefties could make him an everyday bat. —Craig Goldstein

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heterodude
1/18
Where would you rank Keibert Ruiz in this organization? I know he's slowly starting to draw attention.
jpaternostro
1/18
He was in consideration for a spot in the others and would definitely be in the next ten, maybe even the the next five. There's a long development path ahead for him though.
johnnycuff
1/18
What about Jose Miguel Fernandez? Was he intentionally left off because he's uninteresting or was it due to other factors like his age and/or signing status?
TheArtfulDodger
1/18
He's 28 and hasn't played since...what? 2014? Anything we could tell you has a solid chance of being out of date and inaccurate, and it wasn't that exciting a profile at the time. He can hit and walk, but defense wasn't a strength even then and it's not clear how much power would translate over (which could make pitchers more comfortable attacking him, negatively impacting his ability to hit).
Eddy5791
1/18
Little surprised Alvarez didn't notch a higher OFP. I assume this is because until he develops the change, his floor is still a RP? If he does make strides and gets it to average, does it climb to 65-70? Also on the "...added weight/strength might help tone down some of the effort in his delivery" line -- he looks like he has the most effortless delivery, sometimes looking disinterested on the mound. Just a facade then? And finally, does Lux stay at SS?
jpaternostro
1/18
Yeah I hemmed and hawed over 60 versus 70 OFP for him. I think I even through a 70 on him in a char recently. If I gave 65s, he'd probably fit best there balancing the present stuff with the risk, but I think I need to see a bit more with the change and more than 60 innings of the stuff in a season before I go 7. If someone else went 7 it would be totally defensible though.
jpaternostro
1/18
Blah, forgot about the rest of it. Alvarez's delievery isn't like Jordan Sheffield level or anything but there is a little hitch before acceleration and he can get off line at times. A little more man strength might smooth it out. We think Lux is potentially above-average at short, so he probably isn't moving, and isn't that likely to grow off it. But he is 18, and the gap between that and playing a major league shortstop is a really large thing.
boatman44
1/20
Tough loss for the Owls tonight mate, could have far reaching reprecussions if they lose Forestieri in the window, due to the defeat.
DeathSpeculum
1/18
thoughts on Edwin rios?
BuckarooBanzai
1/18
Rios has one of the longest, most majestic left-handed swings you'll see, chalk full of extension. 7 raw, it's a *lot* of fun to see him get a hold of one. It's a flowing, slow-rhythm swing, and he showed as adept at dragging the barrel through the zone when he got out front against soft stuff and dumping balls in front of outvielders. He was also surprisingly adept at fighting off pitches on the hands and muscling them in for hits, and those two traits are the only reason I pegged a decent OFP on him. It's a very low-probability profile, however - most aggressive dudes with his kind of swing mechanics just aren't going to be a match for more advanced stuff. He's very probably and up-and-down bat, but there's at least a chance for more given the power and at least some semblance of barrel awareness. I wrote him up here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=383
mattstupp
1/18
A little confused as to why Yadier Alvarez is higher than Jose De Leon. Both have mid-rotation projections, but De Leon has already made it to the majors, whereas Alvarez hasn't yet made it past Low-A and is at least two years away from the majors. Does whatever edge Alvarez has in ceiling really outweigh De Leon's floor?
jpaternostro
1/18
de Leon's floor is something like "it goes Aaron Blair Bad." Stuff has less margin for error, so I think saying he already made the majors, while true, underplays the risk in the profile.
TheArtfulDodger
1/18
Not to be snarky, but I think the answer to the last question is obviously yes, in our estimation, which is why we ranked him higher. A half-grade jump in that part of the bell curve isn't insignificant in terms of value change. I'd also argue there's some positive risk in Alvarez's profile and that he could push into a top-of-the-rotation quality arm if everything clicks. De Leon's floor has its value, but he's more of a fourth starter than an impact type guy in my eyes.
mmelissa825
1/18
In your estimation, how does Trevor Oaks fit into the Dodgers plans? A solid, but unspectacular RHP with a heavy sinker should be useful at the MLB level.
BuckarooBanzai
1/18
I agree with this, I raised Oaks in our discussions for exactly those reasons. Just pounds the zone with that sinker, it's a pitch that can play to plus, and he pairs it with a very good cutter, too. I put a 45/40 on him, but those are really sturdy/high-probability grades: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=345
philly604
1/18
It's not right that Austin Barnes gets a header, but not a report. Give the man some love!
BuckarooBanzai
1/18
There's just not much to say about him that hasn't been said already at this point. He didn't make our top 10, and there were 5 (and probably more like a dozen) more interesting guys in this system to write about. And I say this as someone who's higher than many on Barnes. His defensive numbers have been consistently among the best we've measured in the minors for several years running now, and they back up the eye test that he's a very good defensive catcher. He offers some bench-lengthening versatility around the dirt, and - at least in the minors - has shown an ability to get on base. He's ready to go, and we should get a decent read on how mUch hit tool will translate to the majors across a larger sample this season.
jpaternostro
1/18
He also isn't eligible for the list based on service time. Rough guess is he would have slotted somewhere in the next five. It's a really deep top ten.
BuckarooBanzai
1/18
Right! That too!
philly604
1/19
Ah, other outlets don't worry about service time and list him. I didn't realize that BP did exclude players based on it.
travolta19
1/19
I liked Alvarez above De Leon FWIW. Do you happen to have any reports on Carlos Rincon or Mitch Hansen?
ddietz2004
1/19
What do you guys think of Mitch Hansen?
TheArtfulDodger
1/19
He's a toolsy guy, who has shown the potential for average (or better) tools at times. He had a nice rebound in a good environment for hitting, closing the year out especially strong. More likely to end up in a corner than center (he's already playing there more), he is going to need to get the most out of his hit tool so that his power can play well enough to fit the profile. He's more of a wait and see type of guy at this point, with a bunch of risk to along with his upside.
ColeWhittier
1/19
What OFP and Likely would you smack Brock Stewart with? I gotsta know.
BuckarooBanzai
1/19
I have a 50/45 on him personally, I think the additional velo and slider improvement pushes him comfortably into big-league-rotation-arm territory. He's the type of player that maxes out his raw tools through intelligence and technical proficiency, and he's developed to the point where the raw tools are pretty damn good, too. Durable frame. A potential 55/6/5 guy with above-average command is a very nice package, and I don't think those are unreasonable grades for him.
nzach54
1/19
Did Starling Heredia underachieve based on reports? Does he have the tools to be top 5 in this system a year from today?
OmarUnited
1/25
Has nobody noticed that they got the wrong Romine?? Austin is a catcher, Andrew has played 1B and CF...