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Also in this series: Part 1, covering free agents 1-20.

Good luck making it all the way to the end of this! This free agent class, much like the one Verve Pipe concert I went to on my birthday 18 years ago, is not great. Nevertheless, I’m here to try to make it entertaining. Part 1 broke down the top-20 free agents, so it's time for the not-so-cream of the crop, players 21-50 on the free agent market.

Two notes that bear mentioning: First, I’m not including free agents from foreign leagues like Lourdes Gurriel and Eric Thames. They’re out there, plus a few guys from the Korean Baseball Organization, but I’m not comfortable trying to assign teams or make observations with limited info. Second, our intern "Randy" has made his own predictions, and it's important to keep in mind that he's a literal random number generator. Nice kid and all, but it's the truth.

On with the show!

21. Carlos Beltran

Position (Bats): DH/OF (S)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 39

Observations: One of the game’s greatest switch-hitters keeps chugging along, just barely padding his Hall of Fame resume with year after year of solid offensive performance. His 2016 was a blessing for the Yankees as he thrived enough to return a substantial prospect at the deadline, but his power waned in the Arlington summer. This is probably his last ride, but he’s still savvy and strong enough to provide value, so long as you keep him out of the outfield.

Prediction: It’s almost got to be an American League team at this point, so let’s run down the teams in need of a DH. (/counts for a moment) Huh, it’s almost all of them, save maybe Detroit or Cleveland. The sentimentalist inside of me wants to see him land with the Royals, and they’ve got a need.

Randy’s Prediction: Astros

22. Jason Hammel

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 34

Observations: The Cubs did something kind of weird and out of the norm for modern baseball franchises: they let Hammel walk thanks to a gentleman’s agreement instead of keeping him around at the reasonable price of $12 million. A perfectly serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter, he’d likely benefit from a park that limits dingers, but wouldn’t we all? Even at 34, I could still see him getting a modest three-year deal and gently anchoring the back of a team’s rotation.

Prediction: Everyone has a need for reliable starting pitching, so it comes down to who can stomach the cost. With so very many question marks, and perhaps just enough money to spend, I could see him landing with the Angels and quietly contributing to a mediocre team.

Randy’s Prediction: Tigers

23. Luis Valbuena

Position (Bats): 3B/1B (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 31

Observations: Am I nervous that coming off hamstring surgery could hamper his power and/or versatility? You bet. But Valbuena has proven his merits as a play anywhere, hit a few homers, reach base on the regular type of player. You’re going to get tired of hearing this, but in this market, there’s some serious value to being able to acquire a decent left-handed bat and then figure out where he fits later. A two-win player you can plug in almost anywhere is like the four-in-a-row block in Tetris, the perfect final piece.

Prediction: One of two options are in play: either he’s picked up by a team that respects his versatility and uses him in a manner of different roles (perhaps the Dodgers) or a team that simply needs an upgrade at third base (such as the Braves). Let’s go with the Braves.

Randy’s Prediction: Diamondbacks

24. Bartolo Colon

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): Astonishing

Observations: Bart moves so high up this list for two reasons. The first is despite his advanced age–he’s become incredibly reliable as he’s gotten older, throwing 190+ innings over each of the past four seasons. No, he’s not good (DRA of 5.15 in 2016), but he isn’t likely to immediately fall apart one more season removed from his prime. That’s the benefit of living and dying by your command and wits. The second reason is actually because of his age–no team will feel obligated to throw a three-year deal on the guy, and he may even just go year-to-year at this point. Any time you can avoid a long-term deal to a pitcher, you probably want to.

Prediction: Bart returns to the Mets on another one-year deal, and we all continue to spout fun facts about his age while he mentors pitchers born well after his debut. (Just kidding! Bartolo signed a one-year deal with the Braves on Friday.)

Randy’s Prediction: Twins

25. Steve Pearce

Position (Bats): 1B/OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Boomerang Steve was a phenomenal part-time player with the Rays this year, pounding out hits to the tune of a .309/.388/.520 slash line before returning once again to the Orioles’ 25-man roster. Pearce is a bit volatile, as he seems injury prone and really should only be leveraged against left-handed pitching. Supposedly, he’s versatile, though it remains to be seen if that actually means he can handle positions like second and third base on the regular. Likely, he’s guy you shuffle through the corners or DH spot whenever you need to beat up on a southpaw.

Prediction: How has he not already played for the Athletics?

Randy’s Prediction: Nationals

26. Angel Pagan

Position (Bats): OF (S)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 35

Observations: How much volatility can you stomach? In 2016, he took on a mostly full-time role in left field, and racked up value by doing every little thing just a bit better than average. He was a plus baserunner yet again­–not bad for an age-34 season–posted solid advanced defensive numbers once ensconced in left, and hit almost exactly in line with his career .273 True Average. The problem is that Pagan is a bit of a constant injury risk, and he is entering the back half of his 30s while being just one season removed from a below-replacement (-0.7 WARP) full season. I project something more like ’16 than ’15, but an ill-timed injury or long cold streak transforms him from the solidly above-average outfielder he was last season into Coco Crisp.

Prediction: His best role is as the third outfielder on a team with some depth, so I could certainly see a team like the Twins bringing him on.

Randy’s Prediction: White Sox

27. Mike Napoli

Position (Bats): 1B/DH (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 35

Observations: How do you rank a guy with 34 bombs just 27th in this year’s weak free agent class? Simple: Napoli’s a fine power hitter and walker, but the rest of his skills are abominable. Though not a catcher anymore, he still runs like one (-3.4 BRR). At first base, he’s passable, but he’s aging out of that position as well. And in 2016, he hit .239 despite a fine .296 BABIP. Put him on a team with a big hole at DH, and he can perhaps end his career with grace and another 50-75 dingers. Just don’t forget to pinch-run for him or use a defensive replacement.

Prediction: Is it weird to imagine him on the Yankees as a caddy for Brian McCann or Greg Bird? You bet, but it kinda fits too.

Randy’s Prediction: Dodgers

28. Brad Ziegler

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 37

Observations: One of the lowest-ranked “proven” closers on the market–don’t worry, we’ll get to Uehara later–Ziegler used to be baseball’s most fun groundball reliever until the Zach Britton Experience began. Remarkably consistent over his career, Ziegler amped up his strikeout rate after his move to Boston to pair with his mid-60s groundball rate. He’s a guy who almost always outperforms his FIP and DRA, which is great since those numbers (2.99 DRA and 3.11 FIP in 2016) are already good to begin with.

Prediction: The Red Sox would really benefit from bringing him back to shore up their bullpen.

Randy’s Prediction: Braves

29. Chase Utley

Position (Bats): 2B (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 38

Observations: Would you like another data point in favor of Chase Utley’s Hall of Fame candidacy? His decline, which looked stark in 2015, looked more gentle and in line with his previous performance this past year. The Dodgers stuck with him as the (mostly) everyday second baseman and it paid off: he put up a .273 True Average and played great old-dude defense (or great defense for an old dude?) at second. He’s on his way out of the league, but if he continues to decline gracefully, some team will get an inexpensive keystone next year.

Prediction: Move him cross-town to the Angels, and that is probably a full two-win upgrade over Johnny Giavotella and Cliff Pennington, even if he continues to decline.

Randy’s Prediction: Rangers

30. Rajai Davis

Position (Bats): OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 36

Observations: Coming off his worst offensive season in several years, why on earth would I post the still-fleet Davis so high on my list? Because he’s a valuable role player in the right situation, and there is always a place for speed on a contending team. After leading the AL in stolen bases last year, Davis needs to keep driving toward a way to reach first base a bit more often–a .299 BABIP and .306 OBP just isn’t good enough to make him a leadoff hitter. Still, he’s one of the game’s most valuable baserunners, and can handle his business in center field.

Prediction: I can envision a scenario in which he’s the third or fourth outfielder and veteran presence on the free-running Brewers.

Randy’s Prediction: Dodgers

31. Brett Anderson

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 29

Observations: If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good.

Prediction: He’s not healthy. Dodgers.

Randy’s Prediction: Reds

32. Charlie Morton

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Oh, what might have been. Before losing his left leg in ‘Nam–wait, he just tore his hamstring in Milwaukee, but that’s close enough–Morton was off to a hot, hot start in his first four games with the Phillies. He was keeping his excellent groundball rate (58 percent for his career), but had massively increased his strikeout rate to nearly 10 punchouts per nine in that small sample. Somehow, he had raised his velocity on all of his pitches, including a 2.5 mph bump on his bread-and-butter sinker. If he maintains that velocity after his lost 2016, he could actually be a really nice mid-rotation starter for someone.

Prediction: It might behoove both player and team for Morton to stick with the Phillies. Injury aside, something certainly went right there, if only for a little while.

Randy’s Prediction: Cubs

33. Edinson Volquez

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: I think we used to live in a world where we considered Volquez unreliable, and that’s at least partially due to the fact that I have no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. It turns out that he’s been pretty steady over the past few years, with below-average performance mellowed out by reliably taking his turn through the rotation. Do I think he’s going to put up numbers in line with his career 4.44 ERA and 4.45 DRA over the next year or two? Yes. Have I resigned myself to the fact that this kind of stability has real value to a major-league team, no matter how ugly it can get? You betcha.

Prediction: I mean, I’ll laugh if it is the Twins (low strikeouts!), but I think the new Derek Falvey regime knows better. He could be a rotation stabilizer for the Angels.

Randy’s Prediction: Orioles

34. Jon Jay

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 32

Observations: Still underrated, Jay is never the guy you dream about watching in center field, but (almost) always an average performer. He hits for average, but precious little power. His defense is competent, but not exceptional, and he has maintained an ability to pick up a few extra runs on the basepaths. The term “ham-and-egger” probably applies.

Prediction: He seems like a Rangers sort of guy. I don’t know what that really means, but I do know that they probably won’t have much of an issue pushing him to a reserve role if they make another move.

Randy’s Prediction: Astros

35. Daniel Hudson

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: We’re probably just now coming to the point where we can consider Hudson not just an injury case, but actually a pretty decent relief pitcher with potential to grow. Make no mistake, Arizona’s a tough place to pitch, not only because of the ballpark but also because of the team’s unwillingness to hire solid framing catchers. Nevertheless, Hudson has acquitted himself well over the past couple of seasons, striking out about a batter per inning and combining skill and innings to be one of the most productive members of the Arizona bullpen. There’s a chance he could still grow in his late-inning relief role, and a change of scenery might help with that growth process.

Prediction: Literally every team needs another good right-handed reliever, except perhaps for the team below that Randy chose. (Stupid Randy!) Dartboard pick here is the Blue Jays.

Randy’s Prediction: Indians

36. Brett Cecil

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: Often overlooked despite being one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball from 2013-2015, Cecil was injured last season and saw his production dip as a result. Sure, his home run rate was brutal (1.5 per nine innings), but he also appeared to see use in shorter bursts than he had in previous seasons, picking up less than 37 innings despite seeing action in 54 games. When you’re striking out 11 batters per nine, you’ll certainly find a cushy landing spot somewhere, but we may be at a point where Cecil is simply a pretty good specialist.

Prediction: One of the few areas where the defending champions could use a real upgrade might be on the left-handed side of their bullpen. I could certainly see him helping the Cubs.

Randy’s Prediction: Giants

37. Doug Fister

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Just show up. That’s literally all it takes. Last year, Fister threw 180+ innings for the Astros, and they were almost perfectly replacement level. If it were 2009, we’d all be thinking of course he did, but in 2016, a couple years removed from All-Star-caliber production, it’s an unmitigated disappointment. And yet, pitching staffs are thirsty for guys who show up. When you’re relying on that fire-balling 23-year-old righty or that slider-heavy lefty, you better also have a Fister in your back pocket to soak up the innings, as mundane as they might be.

Prediction: I’m going to cheat a little, as I’m writing this after Colon left New York for the rival Braves. I could see him going to the Mets as a fallback option behind the team’s parade of talented-but-injured starters. They probably need one.

Randy’s Prediction: Orioles

38. Matt Joyce

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17):

Observations: A prototypical platoon outfielder, the thought was that his iffy defense might be exposed in his first taste of the National League. It turns out that, well, who cares? Joyce appeared in 140 games but only logged about 400 innings in the field despite. In that span, which included 293 plate appearances, he posted a .403 OBP and delivered 18 hits as a mid-game substitute. In fact, no player had more plate appearances as a sub than Joyce. He’s unlikely to replicate that run from a pure offensive standpoint again, but he stands at the ready as a prototypical offense-only platoon bat off the bench.

Prediction: You have to either put him on a team that’s willing to leverage him in the proper situation, or is very desperate for legitimate offense. I pick the Braves, and I bet you can guess which of those two categories I put Atlanta in.

Randy’s Prediction: Dodgers

39. Brandon Moss

Position (Bats): 1B/OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Did you enjoy my brief write-up on Matt Joyce above? Lovely! Add a bit more power to the profile, but considerably less OBP, and a history of a bit more regular playing time.

Prediction: Since he’s not the complete cipher in the field that some players with his profile are, I’m guessing he stays in the National League for a bit longer and ends up with the Rockies. (They could sign both him and Mark Trumbo, right?)

Randy’s Prediction: Marlins

40. Sergio Romo

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 34

Observations: Part of me really hates putting yet another reliever this high up the list–particularly one who appears to be a one- or two-out guy who throws right-handed–but here we are. Romo has the closer pedigree to demand more than your average reliever, but his recent performance has been more “good” (0.5 WARP in 40 games last year) than “great” (1.7 WARP in 65 games back in 2011). He’s probably got another good couple of years left in him, it’s just that those years include fewer innings and more homers than they used to–you’re paying a premium for the beard.

Prediction: Right-handed reliever roulette says … the Dodgers! They love beardy former Giants closers, don’t they?

Randy’s Prediction: Mets

41. Colby Rasmus

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: After plenty of seasons and more false starts than a Seinfeld footrace, I still believe. I mean, I don’t believe that Rasmus is a guy with All-Star potential like I once did, but I do think he can bounce back from a pretty ugly 2016 season to be a solid everyday regular. That’s all I got, it’s tough to find anything statistical in his profile that’s particularly predictive, so feel free to insert a shruggie man emoji here.

Prediction: If he comes cheaply, he could be another buy-low, sell-high, trade-at-the-deadline piece. Of the teams in position to do that, maybe the Diamondbacks could be a fit?

Randy’s Prediction: Indians

42. Koji Uehara

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 41

Observations: With all the miles on his arm, you can’t blame Uehara for throwing just 47 innings last season. But Uehara also posted the second-best strikeout rate of his career (12.1 per nine innings) and posted a 2.80 DRA in his age-40 season. It appears that, despite his age, he’s still an incredibly effective relief pitcher. Provided he wants to keep shoving, he probably will have success, and some team will get to reap the returns on a short contract.

Prediction: Koji returns–once again–to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. Why not?

Randy’s Prediction: Red Sox (WAY TO GO, RANDY!)

43. Pedro Alvarez

Position (Bats): DH (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: It was supposed to be a breakout year for the defensively challenged Alvarez, as he was finally free from the terrors of having to play the field in the National League. Sure enough, he was spared his glove, aside from 53 ill-fated innings at third base alongside Manny Machado at short. The Orioles wisely used him primarily against right-handed pitchers, and any acquiring team might want to do the same–he was only .237/.286/.368 against lefties.

Prediction: There are a lot of DH-types available this offseason, which makes his market challenging to predict. The White Sox are really low on left-handed hitters, and their DH situation is murky, so perhaps they’re the best fit for him.

Randy’s Prediction: Twins

44. Sean Rodriguez

Position (Bats): UT (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 31

Observations: Ever ready to play any position and always spoiling for a fight, Rodriguez also happened to be a pretty good ballplayer last year. His slash line stats went up across the board to a very respectable .270/.349/.510, but you may want to chalk some of that up to a career-high batting average on balls in play (.344). It was wise of him to time his career-best season with his impending free agency, and he’ll parlay that into a contract as a super-sub for some squad.

Prediction: I could certainly see a reunion with Andrew Freidman and a role as a do-it-all everyman for the Dodgers. But given his versatility, there are plenty of places he could end up.

Randy’s Prediction: White Sox

45. Andrew Cashner

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 29

Observations: I feel like I have to go back to that Verve Pipe comment from my introduction. I really liked the Verve Pipe when I was a teen, and though I don’t think the Villains album holds up very well two decades later, I was super pumped to see them play. So when me and my buddy showed up to their concert, we were kind of devastated to see them play in front of literally five people, at least one of which was a venue employee. I think the band fed off the energy of the crowd, which is to say they made an effort, but it wasn’t exactly a raucous show. It just kind of sat there. Anyhow, Cashner is just kind of a meh back-of-the-rotation starter at this point, and that's equally disappointing.

Prediction: Nostalgia is great, but nothing is as good as we remember during our time as children. That includes the Marlins.

Randy’s Prediction: Tigers

46. Matt Holliday

Position (Bats): OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 37

Observations: Well, he finally did it. People said that the Matt Holliday seven-year deal with the Cardinals was going to look ugly at the end, and this was the season where it finally did. Of course, the entirety of the contract was a rousing success, as Holliday was consistent and valuable all the way up through the 2015 season. Now? You can still count on Holliday to hit a bit–he posted a .279 True Average last year–but the twin haymakers of injury and age have landed on him. He’s strong enough to stagger around for a while, but sometime soon he’ll be down for the count.

Prediction: He’d fit pretty nicely as a part-time first baseman or designated hitter for some team. Think that the Indians might be interested?

Randy’s Prediction: Marlins

47. Jhoulys Chacin

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 29

Observations: I’m certainly not too noble to say “I told you so.”

Prediction: He won’t come at quite as steep a discount as he did to the Braves last year, but he could still be one of the best bargains of the offseason. Let’s pick a low-to-mid-payroll team with a legitimate need for a starter: the Marlins.

Randy’s Prediction: Astros

48. Joe Blanton

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 36

Observations: I just don’t trust him. Of course, I don’t mean that personally, it’s just really super hard to imagine that we live in a world where we should expect Joe’s performance to be that of this sort of mid-twos-ERA middle reliever. I guess DRA is with me–in spite of his strikeout-per-inning tendencies, he induced a ton of fly balls, and that metric put even his solid 2016 performance as below-average (DRA- of 103.4). I’d expect the ERA to hew a bit closer to his DRA in upcoming seasons, while also eventually losing some velo. That’s not exactly worthy of a three-year reliever deal, but he could be just fine next season.

Prediction: He seems like a Cardinals sort of player this late in his career, and with Trevor Rosenthal moving to the rotation, they could probably use additional bullpen depth.

Randy’s Prediction: Mets

49. Santiago Casilla

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 36

Observations: If you buy DRA as the best metric of overall pitching performance–and I think perhaps you should–then Casilla is actually coming off the most valuable season of his career. (Warning, do not try telling this to a Giants fan.) Despite my sputtering insistence that there’s no possible way Casilla is actually as old as he is, he’s heading into the back end of a career as a good-but-unexceptional reliever, and he’ll probably be rightfully paid as such this offseason.

Prediction: Casilla finally finds a home team outside the Bay Area, picking up a contract with the Tigers as their token offseason free agent signing.

Randy’s Prediction: Giants

50. R.A. Dickey

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 42

Observations: Old knuckleballers don’t die, they just keep going on and on and on. Despite not making the Blue Jays’ postseason roster, Dickey provides reliable innings to any team willing to stomach his diminished performance. (His below-replacement performance by DRA probably could be taken with a grain of salt given his career habit of out-performing advanced metrics with his ERA.) Think of him as a poor man’s Colon, which is absolutely bonkers to say even five years removed from his Cy Young award.

Prediction: I’m really, really going to go out on a limb here and say that he signs with the Braves. I know, I’m unpredictable.

Randy’s Prediction: Pirates

***

(Note: Thanks to R.J. Anderson for his work with the FA 50 over the previous years, and also to Dan Turkenkopf for incepting Randy the inept, painfully stupid intern who is likely to make more correct predictions than I am.)

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roarke
11/14
Rasmus to the D-Backs would be hilarious given the history between him and LaRussa. It would be like one final message to Tony that his opinion no longer matters much.