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Prospectus Hit List for September 6



by Matt Sussman

Hit List for September 2 Hit List for September 9
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

No boats, no snowmobiles, and no skis.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

48

92.8

98.1

97.0

.688

.683

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs' BP playoff odds were less than 100 percent between the dates of July 2 and July 31, but that's because Joe Maddon wanted to have everyone mess up the computers for a little while to boost team morale.
2

80

57

83.5

87.2

86.1

.615

.610

99.6%

0.4%

100.0%

-0.0%

0.1%

Your season is going aces when you bat Clint Robinson-Chris Hersey-Brian Goodwin 4-5-6 and can still win games. But if something is going aces then it's 1946.
3

76

61

82.2

86.1

86.6

.604

.609

44.0%

39.6%

83.6%

-5.9%

-3.6%

Now that he's back up for September, will we see Joe Kelly start a game for the Red Sox this month? Besides the Wild Card game, of course.
4

79

57

78.3

79.1

77.9

.578

.583

89.5%

9.2%

98.7%

-0.6%

3.2%

Getting Coco Crisp back for Colt Hynes is a way better price than fourteen years ago, when it took Chuck Finley to get him.
5

77

60

78.7

80.2

80.5

.577

.582

47.0%

39.1%

86.1%

-6.4%

-8.8%

The only Blue Jays pitchers who are not in danger of throwing too many innings this season: R.A. Dickey, Darwin Barney (contingency), Dave Stieb (on permanent retainer).
6

77

60

76.1

82.5

82.6

.581

.576

89.7%

9.3%

99.0%

0.2%

2.2%

The Dodgers hit five home runs off Zack Greinke, which was the first time the Dodgers did that to a starting pitcher since Livan Hernandez in 2001, and before that you have to go back to Brooklyn. Which they probably won't. Sorry, Brooklyn.
7

72

64

76.0

80.2

78.6

.564

.559

0.0%

64.3%

64.3%

6.1%

-0.7%

The Cardinals already have two 25-homer hitters for the first time in four years and those players are ... Brandon Moss and Jedd Gyorko! Stop trying to analyze this sport, is the moral of the stat.
8

73

64

74.5

75.9

76.4

.547

.542

10.3%

62.6%

72.9%

-8.1%

-6.9%

The Giants getting just 16 hits in their last five games is clearly a false flag operation. We're not fooled. Nobody's fooled. Except for Giants hitting.
9

75

62

71.1

74.5

73.7

.537

.542

10.2%

52.3%

62.5%

2.5%

22.2%

Justin Upton has hit three home runs in four games, which is great news considering he spent the first five months of the season spelunking in the Andes mountains.
10

82

56

71.3

68.4

68.4

.525

.530

99.4%

0.4%

99.8%

-0.1%

0.9%

The pitching line on Yohander Mendez's major league debut: [TREASURED MEMORY MISSING]
11

73

64

73.3

71.3

69.9

.525

.530

0.5%

21.3%

21.8%

4.5%

0.7%

Since 2012, the Astros are third in the American League West in team strikeouts. Note: the Astros joined the AL West in 2013.
12

75

62

70.3

69.3

70.4

.520

.525

7.9%

28.1%

35.9%

3.4%

6.4%

We're going to go ahead and say the team's 43-to-1 homer-to-triple ratio is going to be the best in history, especially if you hate triples like you hate centipedes.
13

72

66

70.7

72.0

72.5

.520

.515

0.4%

55.8%

56.2%

6.0%

29.8%

Wilmer Flores walking up to the Friends theme means that he is secretly demanding a trade to the Royals. You know, because of the fountain.
14

70

67

70.7

68.6

68.5

.507

.512

0.1%

3.4%

3.5%

1.1%

-10.4%

Robinson Cano hitting his 32nd home run, keeping his batting average above .300 and likely not to eclipse 100 strikeouts means that a bad contract can turn into a good contract in a matter of a season.
15

71

65

66.4

67.9

69.4

.505

.510

1.1%

3.3%

4.4%

0.6%

-0.6%

Congratulations, middle reliever Jonathan Holder. You have won the Early Wynn Award for Most Apt Pitching Name.
16

66

71

71.2

71.8

71.6

.512

.507

0.0%

0.9%

0.9%

0.1%

-0.1%

Trevor Story is tied for eighth in National League home runs but he doesn't yet qualify for the batting title.
17

68

70

68.1

69.0

68.4

.496

.491

0.0%

2.8%

2.8%

-2.3%

-9.9%

Dustin McGowan has been in the Marlins bullpen all year. The things you learn while researching interesting facts about the Marlins in September and coming away with very little.
18

71

66

67.4

62.5

63.2

.482

.487

0.3%

3.4%

3.7%

0.9%

-9.7%

The Rally Mantis retired, or rather we should say forced into retirement, or more accurately we should say ceased to be paraded against his will on the internet as a symbol of streaky baseball.
19

58

78

65.7

68.2

70.2

.482

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rays catcher Luke Maile is probably tired of the "You've Got Maile!" jokes, since it's pronounced "may-lee." But it's possible he is still fine with a few Super Smash Brothers Maile references.
20

67

68

66.2

61.9

62.6

.477

.472

0.0%

3.8%

3.8%

-2.0%

-14.6%

It's starting to look like the Pirates will finally enjoy the Wild Card game by staying home and watching it. Hopefully they'll agree as a third-party observer; it's a pretty fun event.
21

65

72

64.1

62.8

63.4

.466

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Alex Avila caught over 3,000 plate appearances of Justin Verlander's throughout his career. So naturally it only took eight plate appearances against him to hit two home runs off him.
22

62

75

67.1

60.2

61.1

.457

.462

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now that Andrew Bailey appears to be the Angels' primary closer (and picked up his first saves in three seasons), fantasy owners take note: this should give him at least one, maybe two more chances to pick up a save.
23

60

77

60.5

58.4

57.5

.432

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ben Rowen gave up four runs in an eight-pitch outing, and is also the only pitcher whose name is an accurate answer for what a crew member did to get ready for a regatta.
24

58

79

55.6

55.2

56.1

.410

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The A's just need one of those 20-game Moneyball winning streaks and then just three more wins after that, and bam -- winning record.
25

51

87

56.5

58.3

58.6

.406

.411

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It takes a special team to have someone hit three home runs in a game and still lose by six, and the Twins are a special team.
26

58

79

55.0

55.7

56.6

.411

.406

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Zack Greinke has finally looked good lately. That's because he brought his own baseball uniform from home.
27

57

80

59.9

53.3

53.1

.408

.403

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Well of course Edwin Jackson struck out 11 batters and gave up zero runs against an American League playoff contender in The Year Of Our Padre 2016.
28

54

84

53.8

58.7

58.1

.407

.402

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Remember to keep in mind that numbers aren't everything when it comes to Braves baseball. It is played by skilled human beings, most of whom aren't employed by the Atlanta Braves.
29

57

79

56.1

50.1

50.8

.393

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Billy Hamilton injured his oblique, but don't bother sending him your wishes about what type of recovery you want him to have. He'll pick one.
30

61

76

52.6

50.2

50.3

.391

.386

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Phillies have two 10-game winners, so you're probably out 500 bucks.