Everything You Could Have Learned This Week: June 29-July 3, 2015

Weekend/Monday

The problem is that it often takes a lot of pitches to get a strikeout. On average, in 2014, strikeouts required 4.5 pitches per plate appearance while outs on balls put in play took only 3 pitches. Every strikeout a pitcher gets drives them closer to their pitch-count limit even as it increases their Game Score. Any pitcher working on a record-challenging game must therefore contend with his manager, whose goal is to preserve the pitcher’s arm for another day. Kluber’s potentially historic performance was disrupted by just such reasoning, and it prevented him from getting a chance, however small, to break Kerry Wood’s record.

The recent drop in pitch counts is also partly attributable to sabermetric research. With the revelation that pitchers gradually decline every time they go through the order, there has been a shift toward pulling starters before their performance begins to tumble. Starting pitcher performance falls even when they have been cruising through the lineup, mowing down hitters. In potentially record-breaking games, a manager must often choose between a starter whose expected performance is league average (or worse) in their third time through the order versus a fresh reliever whose strikeout potential exceeds even the best starter. It’s no surprise that most managers opt to lock down the win.

Part of the reason Roe's slider seems so ridiculous is because of how Caleb Joseph reacts to the pitch. His glove appears to be squarely in the middle of the zone, but has to jerk his left arm over to the first base side to catch the pitch. The movement of the glove and subsequent pull of his entire upper body make the viewer think that even Joseph didn't expect the pitch to move quite that much. In reality, Roe likely just missed his spot—which is understandable when a pitch moves more than two feet—and Joseph was surprised at the location regardless of the movement.

Knowing that Joseph continues to be one of the best framing catchers in baseball should only serve to amplify the impact of having our perception anchored by the target he initially made for Roe. Ultimately, when the catcher sits off the plate where the pitch ends up, our perception is going to be that the offering was less impressive because the pitch did what the catcher expected it to. That doesn't mean it didn't have absurd movement; it just seems a lot less impressive than it perhaps ought to.

But do you still need to sacrifice offense for good defense up the middle? Aren’t we over the days of the scrappy second baseman and lanky shortstop? Shouldn’t this be one of the modernizations made possible by 21st-century athletes? Look at Troy Tulowitzki. Look at Chase Utley. Look at what Barry Larkin and Cal Ripkenand Roberto Alomar did on the field and at the plate. When Tory Hernandez looks at those players, he sees once-in-a-generation talent. If there were more Tulowitzkis out there playing professional baseball — or thinking of playing professional baseball — there’d be plenty of teams willing to play those guys at shortstop, instead of pushing them to first base or the outfield.

Brad Kullman agrees. Kullman worked in scouting and player development for the Cincinnati Reds from 1996 to 2006, including a stint as assistant general manager from 2002 to 2006. More recently, he’s worked as a pro scout for the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs. “Scouts are always looking for the five-tool player,” Kullman told me. “That’s been consistent over time.” But not all guys have five strong tools and when they don’t, you have to make choices. “There are two things you can’t teach to a ballplayer — running speed and arm strength,” Kullman added. Even with the influx of talent from around the world, there are only so many guys who can play shortstop at the major-league level. If they can post a 125 wRC+, that’s great, but it isn’t a job requirement.