Transaction Analysis: Santana and Morales, One Year Later

KANSAS CITY ROYALS Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Return to Top

Signed DH-S Kendrys Morales to a two-year deal worth $17 million. [12/11]

A couple weeks ago, Sahadev Sharma noted that Jon Lester was about to become one of the worst $100 million free agent pitchers ever—when measured over a three-year time frame—but was one of the very best free agent pitchers ever when measured over a one-year time frame. In other words, Sharma wrote, teams had to answer a question: How much can an established player improve his perceived value over the course of one year?

(The answer: A good lot.)

On Thursday, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana each signed multi-year contracts. One year ago, both were barely signable, considered less valuable than the draft picks compensation attached to them. Eventually, each signed a one-year deal: Santana because the Braves were desperate, their pitchers having undergone so many Tommy John surgeries that their Tommy John surgeon was scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery; Morales in June, at a pro-rated salary, once the draft pick compensation expired. Each went his own way after that, producing two new questions for us to answer: How much can an established player hurt his perceived value over the course of one year? And how much can the value of an established player change over the course of one year due to no known variable at all?

The first one first. Morales entered free agency a year ago with not just a draft pick attached to him, but a pretty good record as a hitter. You might recall a piece we ran about Nelson Cruz a couple weeks ago, in which we established the Bomb-Ass Line for designated hitters, the line whereby a DH goes from ehhhh maybe more trouble than tying up one roster spot is worth to yeeaaahhh that guy can really hit. The Bomb-Ass Line, I declared, because I can just declare things now that Ben Lindbergh isn’t around, was “around a 128 OPS+.” From 2009 through 2013, in a bunch of pitcher’s parks, Morales hit .286/.339/.494, for an OPS+ of… 128. He was 30 years old.

Cruz, incidentally, just signed a $57 million deal as a 34-year-old free agent. His five-year OPS+ is 124. There are other details—playing time, the contours of those five years, park factors, projections, so on—but broad point made.

A year later, his five-year OPS+ is down to 112, and I doubt many would take the over. Only three designated hitters were worse than he was last year, and two of those guys retired. The third was so bad his team replaced him in midseason with the puffed up shell of Kendrys Morales.

So, what happened? He hardly hit anything hard all year. You’ll note, probably, that his BABIP was a career-low, and hope for some positive regression. But it’s not just that his BABIP was low; his BABIP on line drives was a career low; his BABIP on fly balls was a career low; and his BABIP on grounders was only nine points better than his career low.

We’re basically talking about a bunch of singles up the middle from the right side

and a bunch of power (especially to left and left-center) from the left side

which doesn’t sound all that damning except it’s most of his offense.

Indeed, we might consider this very nearly the lowest end of what an established DH could do without his career ending. So what did such a season cost him? Last year, FanGraphs’ crowdsourcing estimate was 2.5 years and $27 million. The Mariners extended him a qualifying offer, which surprised me; I would have guessed he was in line for two years and maybe $22 million. As he failed to find a taker, the Mariners “discussed a two-year concept and also offered a one-year deal for about $5MM.” And “Texas made just a $3MM offer to agent Scott Boras.” But, ultimately, he did get a deal that was a prorated version of the $14 million qualifying offer, which means two teams offered him that much (Seattle originally, and Minnesota later—though, technically, Seattle was also weighing the value of a draft pick, and Minnesota was paying for only the second half, which is—to a contender, or to a team that might flip him to a contender—more valuable than the first half) so it’s safe to assume his market was around, that.

And here he is today, with two years and $17 million coming to him. The FanGraphs crowd this year projected 1.2 years and $7 million. Jim Bowden suggested one year and $4 million. Very reasonable estimates, and not even close. Kendrys Morales had just about the worst year possible for a 30-year-old DH. And it cost him… a little.

MINNESOTA TWINS Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Return to Top

Signed RHP Ervin Santana to a four-year deal worth $55 million. [12/11]

Ervin Santana signed last year for one year and $14.3 million. This year he signed with the Twins for four years and $55 million. “The risk of an elbow injury will still prevent him from getting a fourth year on any deal,” Bowden said, but he got a fourth year on his deal. What changed?

Not that much! Santana did get his home runs under control, and he did strike out more batters. He also allowed as many fly balls as ever, and he faced tons more pitchers. In 2013, non-pitchers hit .237/.287/.379 against him; in 2014, they hit .269/.327/.411 against him. His strikeout to walk ratio against non-pitchers got worse. And, yes, he did allow 10 fewer home runs to non-pitchers, but he allowed 11 more doubles and triples. (In fairness: The slash line is inflated by a much higher BABIP.)

He wasn’t exactly the same pitcher he’s always been. He threw fewer pitches in the strike zone; he got more swinging strikes; his FIP was better than it has been in some time; his ERA was worse; his FRA was better; his WAR was not; so on. Mostly he was, though. Mostly that’s why you get Ervin Santana: He’s about as reliable as 200 so-so innings come, and he threw 200 so-so innings.

So why four years? Probably nothing to do with anything Santana did—and, incidentally, he still has a draft pick attached to him, though a draft pick in a less deep draft. He should have been given a contract like this last year; Ricky Nolasco did, and Nolasco was worse than Santana; Matt Garza did, and the year before that Edwin Jackson did. The FanGraphs crowd predicted 3.5 years and $45 million last year, and 3.2 years and $43 million this year. Bowden predicted three years and $42 million. So, basically, Santana didn’t do anything to change the general impression. He just found the right club this year. Nothing more.

Notably, one of Santana’s Baseball-Reference comps is Scott Erickson. Another is Kyle Lohse. Another is Scott Erickson. All have, among their Baseball-Reference comps, Brad Radke. This is extremely important.