Transaction Analysis: Maddon Leaves the Rays Where the Sun Don’t Shine

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Tampa Bay Rays

Announced manager Joe Maddon had exercised his opt-out clause and would leave the organization immediately. [10/24]

You always knew money would kill the Rays. So is Maddon's departure the coup de grace, or merely another flesh wound? Paired with Andrew Friedman's exit, it would appear to be the former. But let's keep perspective: if this postseason has taught us anything, it's that the managerial impact is often overstated—i.e. the same reason Bud Black can be considered a top manager despite a losing record.

That's no dis to Maddon, undoubtedly one of the top managers in baseball. His people skills are top notch, whether it's dealing with the press, communicating with his charges, or maintaining a breezy clubhouse. Players trust him enough to go along with his themed road-trips and fluid lineups without complaining about distractions, playing time, or comfort levels.

It helps that Maddon has earned trailblazer status. Credit that to the Rays' standing as an early adapter to the motion defense—or whatever you want to call the obsessive shifting craze sweeping the league. In all likelihood, Maddon's fondness for the shift probably comes from Gene Mauch, one of his biggest influences. Ditto for Maddon's deftness with platoons and squeeze plays, as well as his penchant for having infielders drop their knees in front of the bag to hamper base-stealers.

At this point you might ask: if Maddon is the total package, then why are the Rays letting him walk? This separation is the rare kind fueled by money. The short version is that Maddon wanted a higher salary than the Rays were offering, and felt the gap was too wide for a speedy resolution. It just so happened that when Friedman left, he triggered an early opt-out clause in Maddon's contract, which allowed him to forgo the final season of his deal in favor of immediate free agency. And so Maddon, like many of his past Rays players, will leave the Trop behind for the highest bidder. Whichever team wins is getting a good one—a strategist, leader, and communicator, all in a zany package.

As for the Rays, who knows what's next.

Dave Martinez, the incumbent bench coach, is the default favorite to take over the reins. He shares some similarities with pre-St. Pete Maddon in that both were no. 2s to well-regarded skippers and had been passed over for multiple other jobs. Of course that describes Ron Wotus, and described Chip Hale and Rick Renteria—who, unfortunately for him, might lose his gig in the Maddon frenzy. It should help Martinez that he's known for his communication skills and is familiar with the culture in place. Though, again, that could easily describe pitching coach Jim Hickey. Point is it's too early to know anything for sure, except this: Heaven aid whoever gets the job.

The Maddon comparisons aren't going away and, unlike the specter of Friedman, which will haunt Matt Silverman in private most days, the new manager's every move will be televised and compared to the former boss. Still, there's reason to want the position, unwanted weighing against the past and all. That's because the Rays could be a competitive team in '15. Much of it will depend on how the offseason plays out—will Silverman stop at trading excess pieces, like Matt Joyce and Jeremy Hellickson, or ship Yunel Escobar, Ben Zobrist, and others out in favor of a full rebuild?—but it's possible that the next Rays manager beats Maddon to the postseason, if not to the bank.

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Philadelphia Phillies
Extended the contracts of RHP Jerome Williams (one year, $2.5 million) and OF-L Grady Sizemore (one year, $2 million). [10/21, 10/23]

Two peculiar deals. The length and money are okay—the Phillies have bigger issues than we know if their offseason plans are derailed by $4.5 million—but the timing is strange. Placed in January, these signings wouldn't have caused a stir; stage them in October, before the offseason even begins, and it's as though the Phillies camped out for a show nobody else planned to attend. Too bad, because Williams and Sizemore both have their uses.

Williams recorded a better ERA in nine starts with the Phillies than you'd expect from any pitcher dropped by the Astros and Rangers. There's no reason to believe he'll continue to perform so well—there was no real change in pitch selection or peripherals—but that's okay. For a slight raise over his past two years' salaries, the Phillies can plug Williams in to the back of their rotation and let him start every fifth day until they can upgrade. It's not a glamor signing, it won't move luxury suites, but there's value in a below-average innings eater for a noncompetitive team—especially when the alternatives are minor-league talents like Sean O'Sullivan or a rushed prospect.

Relatively, Sizemore is the harder deal to accept. Teams continue to pay him for his perceived upside and past, even though there's little indication he can or will return to those levels. In fact this deal looks a lot like the one Sizemore signed with Boston last offseason, complete with incentives that could push the deal closer to $5 million. The difference? The Red Sox didn't guarantee him $2 million upfront. Quibbling these days over what amounts to less than $1.5 million is a waste of time, so let's skip that and point out a depressing factoid: last season's 60-game stretch with the Phillies marked the first time he'd posted an above-average True Average in a season of any sample size since 2009.

Even if the Phillies believe Sizemore can stay healthy and replicate those numbers, what is he? An average-ish left fielder? A platoon guy? There's value in that outcome—either of 'em, really—just as there is with Williams. The issue here is timing. These are roles that, while not as easy to fill as we used to think, tend to be dealt with during the second half of winter. Evidently, the Phillies liked what they saw last year from both, enough to lock them in before the market could tempt them away. Given the small opportunity costs involved, there's nothing wrong with that; it's just unusual.