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BillJohnson
2/19
Wow. So they really do expect ultra-regression. I'm shocked. I would have expected a post-regression Pittsburgh to be a middle-of-the-pack team, not a bottom-ten bunch. There are just too many other teams in baseball that really aren't very good.
neastws
2/20
I think the biggest issue is that they have so many guys expected to regress negatively but nobody who really had a down year and has room to bounce back. Going by 2013 WARP-Projected 2014 WARP: McCutchen: -2 Wins Alvarez: -2.1 Wins Marte: -0.9 Wins Martin: -1.1 Wins Walker: -0.6 Wins Mercer: +0.4 Wins Liriano: -0.7 Wins Melancon: -0.7 Wins So -7.7 Wins from those guys regressing, then another -1.6 for losing Burnett, and you're at -9.3. They won 94 games last year, but only 88 games by Pythagorean record, so if you subtract the 9 wins from that they are at 79 wins, close to PECOTA's 78.