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I'm not sure if this is right, but I calculate that a .625 team would win four games before its .375 opponent wins three games 59.6% of the time. Also, I don't know if it follows, but intuitively, I would say that a team would need to be better than .571 (4/7) in order to still be the favorite when staking a team to a one-game lead in a best-of-seven series.