You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
I'm not sure if this is right, but I calculate that a .625 team would win four games before its .375 opponent wins three games 59.6% of the time. Also, I don't know if it follows, but intuitively, I would say that a team would need to be better than .571 (4/7) in order to still be the favorite when staking a team to a one-game lead in a best-of-seven series.

Baseball Prospectus uses cookies on this website. They help us to understand how you use our website, which allows us to provide an improved browsing experience. Cookies are stored locally on your computer or mobile device and not by BP. To accept cookies continue browsing as normal. You will see this message only once. Privacy Policy

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. See the BP Cookie Policy for more information. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.