Remember the process/outcome matrix from Winning Decisions that Paul DePodesta once posted on his blog?

Here’s Jose Fernandez’s process, according to the PITCHf/x data from his first career start. The right-most column indicates where each value would have ranked among starting pitchers who threw at least 200 pitches of each given type in 2012. (Note: Fernandez may throw even harder when the weather is warm.)


2013 Value

2012 MLB Rank

Four-seamer velocity

95.65 mph


Sinker velocity

94.78 mph


Curveball horizontal movement

9.73 in


Changeup horizontal movement

11.49 in


And here’s the outcome:


2013 Value

2012 MLB Rank

Four-seamer whiff/swing



Speaking of winning decisions, Fernandez didn’t get one, both because pitcher wins are a silly stat and because Steve Cishek blew a lead and lost the game. So if we were to put his first start in the process/outcome box, we would have to put it here:

But gosh, did the process look good.

It was one start, and it was against the Mets. Fernandez is 20 years old, and he’s going to struggle sometimes. But if  he keeps pitching like that, we’re going to have to prepare for a lot of this: