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Remember the process/outcome matrix from Winning Decisions that Paul DePodesta once posted on his blog?

Here’s Jose Fernandez’s process, according to the PITCHf/x data from his first career start. The right-most column indicates where each value would have ranked among starting pitchers who threw at least 200 pitches of each given type in 2012. (Note: Fernandez may throw even harder when the weather is warm.)

Category

2013 Value

2012 MLB Rank

Four-seamer velocity

95.65 mph

7th

Sinker velocity

94.78 mph

7th

Curveball horizontal movement

9.73 in

2nd

Changeup horizontal movement

11.49 in

4th

And here’s the outcome:

Category

2013 Value

2012 MLB Rank

Four-seamer whiff/swing

26.92%

3rd

Speaking of winning decisions, Fernandez didn’t get one, both because pitcher wins are a silly stat and because Steve Cishek blew a lead and lost the game. So if we were to put his first start in the process/outcome box, we would have to put it here:

But gosh, did the process look good.

It was one start, and it was against the Mets. Fernandez is 20 years old, and he’s going to struggle sometimes. But if  he keeps pitching like that, we’re going to have to prepare for a lot of this: