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Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff choices for the major player awards  (MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

American League

MVP

  1. Mike Trout, Angels, 29, 287 (28)
  2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, 28, 195 (1)
  3. Robinson Cano, Yankees, 19, 96
  4. Adrian Beltre, Rangers, 7, 35
  5. Justin Verlander, Tigers, 2, 12
  6. Adam Jones, Orioles, 2, 10

Cy Young

  1. Justin Verlander, Tigers, 28, 136 (26)
  2. David Price, Rays, 21, 49 (2)
  3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners, 21, 44
  4. Chris Sale, White Sox, 6, 10
  5. Jered Weaver, Angels, 4, 10 (1)
  6. Max Scherzer, Tigers, 5, 9
  7. Yu Darvish, Rangers, 1, 1
  8. Fernando Rodney, Rays, 1, 1

Rookie of the Year

  1. Mike Trout, Angels, 29, 145 (29)
  2. Yu Darvish, Rangers, 24, 55
  3. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics, 27, 52
  4. Jarrod Parker, Atletics, 3, 5
  5. Chris Carter, Athletics, 1, 1
  6. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox, 1, 1
  7. Matt Moore, Rays, 1, 1

Manager of the Year

  1. Buck Showalter, Orioles, 22, 100 (17)
  2. Bob Melvin, Athletics, 24, 78 (6)
  3. Robin Ventura, White Sox, 15, 21
  4. Ron Washington, Rangers, 2, 6 (1)
  5. Joe Maddon, Rays, 5, 5
  6. Joe Girardi, Yankees, 1, 1
  7. Jim Leyland, Tigers, 1, 1
  8. Eric Wedge, Mariners, 1, 1

National League

MVP

  1. Buster Posey, Giants, 28, 258 (22)
  2. Ryan Braun, Brewers, 27, 189 (5)
  3. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates, 21, 130 (1)
  4. Yadier Molina, Cardinals, 10, 54
  5. Craig Kimbrel, Braves, 1, 5

Cy Young

  1. R.A. Dickey, Mets, 22, 94 (17)
  2. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 26, 87 (8)
  3. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals, 18, 46 (4)
  4. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals, 6, 12 (1)
  5. Cliff Lee, Phillies, 4, 8
  6. Craig Kimbrel, Braves, 3, 7
  7. Johnny Cueto, Reds, 6, 6
  8. Kris Medlen, Braves, 2, 2

Rookie of the Year

  1. Bryce Harper, Nationals, 28, 139 (23)
  2. Wade Miley, Diamondbacks, 23, 68 (3)
  3. Todd Frazier, Reds, 17, 27
  4. Norichika Aoki, Brewers, 11, 21
  5. Wilin Rosario, Rockies, 3, 9 (1)
  6. Mike Fiers, Brewers, 3, 5
  7. Zack Cozart, Reds, 1, 1

Manager of the Year

  1. Davey Johnson, Nationals, 23, 99 (18)
  2. Bruce Bochy, Giants, 10, 32 (3)
  3. Dusty Baker, Reds, 13, 31 (1)
  4. Fredi Gonzalez, Braves, 8, 24 (2)
  5. Mike Matheny, Cardinals, 7, 11
  6. Clint Hurdle, Pirates, 2, 6
  7. Bud Black, Padres, 3, 5
  8. Ron Roenicke, Brewers, 3, 5
  9. Ozzie Guillen, Marlins, 1, 1
  10. Don Mattingly, Dodgers, 1, 1

Individual Ballots:  

 


Mark Anderson

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Felix Hernandez

Matt Moore

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Buster Posey

Craig Kimbrel

Jeff Frazier

Fredi Gonzalez

Andrew McCutchen

Johnny Cueto

Wilin Rosario

Dusty Baker


R.J. Anderson

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Bob Melvin

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Buck Showalter

Robinson Cano

David Price

Yu Darvish

Joe Girardi

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Norichika Aoki

Ron Roenicke

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Wade Miley

Bud Black


Bradley Ankrom

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yu Darvish

Robin Ventura

Adrian Beltre

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Norichika Aoki

Bud Black

Andrew McCutchen

Stephen Strasburg

Wade Miley

Mike Matheny


Stephani Bee

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Fredi Gonzalez

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Norichika Aoki

Bud Black


Russell A. Carleton

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Robinson Cano

David Price

Yoenis Cespedes

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Wade Miley

Andrew McCutchen

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Yadier Molina

Cliff Lee

Todd Frazier


Derek Carty

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Robinson Cano

David Price

Yoenis Cespedes

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Mike Fiers

Andrew McCutchen

Clayton Kershaw

Todd Frazier


Jason Churchill

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Ron Washington

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Jarrod Parker

Buck Showalter

Adrian Beltre

David Price

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Gio Gonzalez

Bryce Harper

Fredi Gonzalez

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Wade Miley

Mike Matheny

Yadier Molina

Clayton Kershaw

Davey Johnson


Corey Dawkins

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Max Scherzer

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Jered Weaver

Yu Darvish

Jim Leyland

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Wilin Rosario

Davey Johnson

Buster Posey

Stephen Strasburg

Bryce Harper

Clint Hurdle

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Todd Frazier

Dusty Baker


Jeff Euston

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Bob Melvin

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Buck Showalter

Robinson Cano

Max Scherzer

Yoenis Cespedes

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Wade Miley

Bruce Bochy

Yadier Molina

Stephen Strasburg

Todd Frazier

Fredi Gonzalez


Nick Faleris

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yu Darvish

Bob Melvin

Adrian Beltre

Jered Weaver

Yoenis Cespedes

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Ryan Braun

Gio Gonzalez

Wade Miley

Bruce Bochy

Andrew McCutchen

Craig Kimbrel

Todd Frazier

Mike Matheny


Dan Evans

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

David Price

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Jered Weaver

Yu Darvish

Bob Melvin

Adam Jones

Fernando Rodney

Yoenis Cespedes

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Wade Miley

Bruce Bochy

Yadier Molina

Craig Kimbrel

Todd Frazier

Fredi Gonzalez

Craig Kimbrel

Gio Gonzalez

Norichika Aoki

Davey Johnson


Mike Ferrin

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

David Price

Mike Trout

Bob Melvin

Miguel Cabrera

Justin Verlander

Yu Darvish

Buck Showalter

Adrian Beltre

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Wade Miley

Fredi Gonzalez

Ryan Braun

Gio Gonzalez

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Yadier Molina

Johnny Cueto

Todd Frazier

Dusty Baker


Joe Hamrahi

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Miguel Cabrera

Jered Weaver

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Adrian Beltre

David Price

Yu Darvish

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Bruce Bochy

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Fredi Gonzalez

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Norichika Aoki

Davey Johnson


Jay Jaffe

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Chris Sale

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

David Price

Yu Darvish

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Yadier Molina

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Mike Matheny

Ryan Braun

Johnny Cueto

Todd Frazier

Dusty Baker


Andrew Koo

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Dusty Baker

Buster Posey

Johnny Cueto

Todd Frazier

Fredi Gonzalez


Matthew Kory

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Bob Melvin

Justin Verlander

Yu Darvish

Yoenis Cespedes

Joe Maddon

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Todd Frazier

Dusty Baker

Yadier Molina

Clayton Kershaw

Norichika Aoki

Ozzie Guillen


Ben Lindbergh

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Abstain

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Abstain

Robinson Cano

David Price

Yu Darvish

Abstain

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Abstain

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Abstain

Andrew McCutchen

Johnny Cueto

Norichika Aoki

Abstain


Rob McQuown

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Chris Sale

Yoenis Cespedes

Eric Wedge

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Gio Gonzalez

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

R.A. Dickey

Todd Frazier

Dusty Baker

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Don Mattingly


Ian Miller

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Max Scherzer

Chris Carter

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Stephen Strasburg

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

Clayton Kershaw

Norichika Aoki

Bruce Bochy

Ryan Braun

Gio Gonzalez

Todd Frazier


Sam Miller

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yu Darvish

Robinson Cano

Chris Sale

Jarrod Parker

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Yadier Molina

Kris Medlen

Todd Frazier


Ben Murphy

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Adrian Beltre

David Price

Will Middlebrooks

Joe Maddon

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Wilin Rosario

Clint Hurdle

Ryan Braun

Stephen Strasburg

Zack Cozart

Mike Matheny


Bill Parker

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yu Darvish

Bob Melvin

 Adam Jones

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Gio Gonzalez

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Dusty Baker

Ryan Braun

Stephen Strasburg

Todd Frazier

Mike Matheny


John Perrotto

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yu Darvish

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Max Scherzer

Yoenis Cespedes

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

Cliff Lee

Wade Miley

Dusty Baker

Buster Posey

Gio Gonzalez

Mike Fiers

Bruce Bochy


Daniel Rathman

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

David Price

Yoenis Cespedes

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Chris Sale

Yu Darvish

Joe Maddon

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Bruce Bochy

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Davey Johnson

Yadier Molina

Kris Medlen

Mike Fiers

Ron Roenicke


Josh Shepardson

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Bob Melvin

Adrian Beltre

David Price

Jarrod Parker

Robin Ventura

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Ryan Braun

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Bruce Bochy

Andrew McCutchen

Johnny Cueto

Norichika Aoki

Dusty Baker


Doug Thorburn

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Bob Melvin

Miguel Cabrera

David Price

Yu Darvish

Robin Ventura

Robinson Cano

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Joe Maddon

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Andrew McCutchen

R.A. Dickey

Wade Miley

Dusty Baker

Ryan Braun

Gio Gonzalez

Todd Frazier

Bruce Bochy


Dan Turkenkopf

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Buck Showalter

Robinson Cano

Chris Sale

Yoenis Cespedes

Bob Melvin

Miguel Cabrera

Felix Hernandez

Yu Darvish

Joe Maddon

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Bryce Harper

Davey Johnson

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Wade Miley

Dusty Baker

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Todd Frazier

Ron Roenicke


Jason Wojciechowski

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Bob Melvin

Robinson Cano

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

Robin Ventura

Miguel Cabrera

Chris Sale

Yu Darvish

Ron Washington

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Dusty Baker

Yadier Molina

Gio Gonzalez

Norichika Aoki

Bruce Bochy

Ryan Braun

Cliff Lee

Wade Miley

Mike Matheny


Colin Wyers

American League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Mike Trout

Justin Verlander

Mike Trout

Miguel Cabrera

Max Scherzer

Yu Darvish

Robinson Cano

Felix Hernandez

Yoenis Cespedes

 

National League

MVP

Cy Young

Rookie of the Year

Manager of the Year

Buster Posey

Clayton Kershaw

Bryce Harper

Andrew McCutchen

Gio Gonzalez

Wade Miley

Ryan Braun

R.A. Dickey

Norichika Aoki

 

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dethwurm
10/03
Such language, Mr. Jaffe! For the record, Ben Lindbergh's ballot is correct. Let the flame war commence!
bornyank1
10/03
Who could flame a comment that reasonable?
AWBenkert
10/03
Cespedes should get some 3rd place MVP votes. His slugging has fueled the As second-half surge. Certainly he has had far less help than Cano.
Kreylix
10/03
I disagree. If you're choosing an MVP from the A's, to me it's clearly Josh Reddick.
jtanker33
10/03
Russell left Miggy off his ballot completely? Wowsers!
pizzacutter
10/03
To his credit, I would have put Miggy 4th. In general, I'd personally rather see the MVP be a position player only award, but since pitchers are eligible, you gotta give props to Verlander who's having a fantastic year and is more valuable to the Tigers than is Cabrera. Cano's raw numbers aren't as pretty as Cabrera's, but he plays an above average second base compared to Cabrera's below average 3B. Plus, positional adjustments matter. And if you want narrative, Cano's been the only Yankee who hasn't been hurt this year... and the Yankees are going to the playoffs.
bgrosnick
10/03
Thanks for sharing all of these. I'd love to see the reasoning behind some of the more off-the-beaten path choices (Rodney for Cy, Rosario #1 for RoY, the no-Cabrera ballot, the no-Harper ballot, Adam Jones for MVP, etc.), because I'd love to hear the different viewpoints.
indianacardinal
10/03
I am curious as to why some of the voting slots were blank. Was that an oversight or intentional? If intentional is there an explanation? Thanks.
cwyers
10/03
It's intentional, and what you see is how my ballot was submitted -- not blank, but with dashes in place of names. It's all Manager of the Year voting, I think several of us think that ranking managers is hard to do well with the information we have currently.
montanabowers
10/03
I want to hear the story behind Mr. Jaffe labeling the AL MVP and ROY as "MFT"! :-)
beeker99
10/03
And thus, a new nickname was born. I, too, would love to hear this backstory.
pizzacutter
10/03
Jay just likes to swear.
jjaffe
10/03
son of a [redacted], who cleaned that up?
jjaffe
10/03
And for the record, I wouldn't say that I "just like" to swear. Here's the more complicated explanation, written upon the occasion of George Carlin's passing: http://bit.ly/T1dzrX
tradeatape
10/03
If Miguel Cabrera gets the Triple Crown, but doesn't get MVP, I don't know what I'm going to do. The hypocracy in the stat/baseball pundit world is driving me nuts. When the MVP was Cabrera vs. Hamilton a couple of years ago, everyone (incl. this site) was saying that Hamilton should get it because the Rangers were going to the playoffs and the Tigers weren't, even though Cabrera's secondary numbers were better than Hamilton's. Now, going to the playoffs doesn't matter, but 'individual achievement' and secondary numbers. Pundits will then say, 'But if Trout had broke with the club in spring training, the Angels would be going to the playoffs'. Well, pundits, these hypotheticals can work both ways --maybe if Trout broke with the club in April he would have sprained his wrist and been out six weeks and then tanked from there, or maybe he would've choked and had a miserable month or season due to the irregular playing time in the overloaded Angels outfield, or got a concussion trying to steal a base and lost time there. By the way, if Trout were in line to get the Triple Crown, the press would be all over him and the MVP voting would be unanimous in his favor. So please, no hypotheticals, and please, consistency and intellectual honesty.
cwyers
10/03
"When the MVP was Cabrera vs. Hamilton a couple of years ago, everyone (incl. this site) was saying that Hamilton should get it because the Rangers were going to the playoffs and the Tigers weren't, even though Cabrera's secondary numbers were better than Hamilton's." You'll excuse me if I ask you for a citation for this.
danteswitness
10/03
Citation? What? He grumbled vaguely and then mentioned intellectual honesty and you have the audacity to challenge him, you dirty pundit?!?!?!
tradeatape
10/03
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12495 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11808 Specifically, from the second article, "The Tigers' Miguel Cabrera should be an easy favorite in a number of regards. If you're old-school and hung up on batting average, he's second, while leading the league in RBI. If you're new-school, the fact that he's leading in OBP, SLG, True Average, and almost there in VORP positions him somewhat nicely as far as the pure value proposition. Position-relative, he suffers a little bit because the standards are higher at first base, and he's also not a particularly nimble defender, but Cabrera's case for MVP is about as sound as it gets... except for a few incidentals. The Tigers are already dead, which won't really help him with the drama addicts, and last year's incident with drunkenness didn't help him any then, and probably doesn't help him any now." I hope this satifies you, danteswitness. I apologize for blanket covering of this site. My exasperation got the better of me. I had the MLB network, and the Sports Illustrated types, in mind when I used the word "pundit".
bgrosnick
10/03
Dude, neither of those articles *supported* that argument, they merely mentioned that those arguments EXIST. In that second piece, the term "incidental" is even used.
beeker99
10/03
I don't really recall the Hamilton vs. Cabrera MVP debate. I do note that the argument "Hamilton should get it because the Rangers were going to the playoffs and the Tigers weren't" strikes me as one that most BP writers would avoid like the plague. I might be wrong, but that just seemed a strange point to make in regards to BP. If so, it seems to me that there's no hypocrisy or lack of consistency and intellectual honesty here, as that's the only time you specifically refer to BP in your post. It makes a lot of sense in regards to many "pundits" (sportswriters, I'm guessing you mean?) who use "did his team make the playoffs" as a gateway to frame their arguments for MVP. I agree that there's possibly hypocrisy and a lack of consistency there, though of course, people are entitled to change their minds over time. I'm not sure anyone is being hypocritical or intellectually dishonest or inconsistent solely because they want to deny Miguel Cabrera the MVP award, however.
dethwurm
10/03
Here's what I don't get: why is winning the Triple Crown automatically equated to "must be the MVP!" this year? By my count, four Triple Crown winners did not get the hardware: Ted Williams twice, Lou Gehrig, and Chuck Klein. Each of them won MVP awards in years that they DIDN'T get the Triple Crown, so clearly the voters back them were using additional criteria. Why are we beholden to this Triple Crown = MVP idea all of a sudden? Why does Interesting Non-MVP-Guaranteeing Statistical Coincidence + A Long Time Since It Last Happened = Automatic MVP And You Are Hypocritical And Intellectually Dishonest If You Disagree? I don't mean to pick on you, specifically, because many, many, many people seem to think along the same lines, but the logic here is utterly baffling to me.
andrews
10/03
Who cares about winning the MVP award, 'winning' a triple crown is 100 times more important and 100 times more memorable than a common and garden MVP award that 2 guys win every year!
andrews
10/04
It's because it hasn't happened for so long, unlike the names you cited. It's not right or logical but thank god baseball still has a bit of the old tradition intact, it's one if the reasons it's so great. And thank god we can still have these discussions, otherwise there would be no need for awards - you'd just need to look at the WAR listings at the end of the season.
JoshShep50
10/03
There is nothing hypothetical about the playoff bound Detroit Tigers having the 7th best record in the American League, for those that like the "player A," carried his team narrative.
andrews
10/03
Josh the most important thing in the regular season is to win your division
JoshShep50
10/04
And the Angels had the misfortune of playing in a much better division. The Tigers had an embarrassing record of 13-20 against the American League West. The Angels had a winning record in each of the divisions in the American League. The Angels also were in the mix for a Wild Card spot, so it's not as if they were playing "meaningless games." Furthermore, the Angels have a better record in crunch time (i.e September/October), so it's not as if the team wilted in the playoff chase. Miguel Cabrera has had an outstanding season, but I don't think he should get bonus points in the MVP race based on where his team's home city is located.
andrews
10/04
Good points but lets cut to the chase, who cares about the MVP? People will have forgotten in a year ir two - now the Triple Crown! That's a completely different thing.
Behemoth
10/04
Are you really claiming that you haven't seen a single article from a pundit saying Cabrera should win the MVP, or are you just annoyed because the evidence doesn't support your view that he should win?
osodani
10/03
Dan Evans' ballot doesn't make sense to me. He's got Kimbrel 3rd in MVP, but 2nd behind Dickey in Cy Young. Yet he didn't vote for Dickey for MVP. Weird.
andrews
10/03
No surprise Trout has 27 first place votes. On the elements that can be measured he has performed the best. However just because something can't be measured it doesn't mean it is irrelevant. The baseball writers in some cases will have access to the clubhouses of the teams and will know which players have been a driving force in helping their team win and helping their teammates perform. These factors can't be measured by a metric. Lets see how the baseball writers vote.
gweedoh565
10/03
This may be true, but you're talking about a handful of writers for each player at most, out of ~700 total ballots. Any inside knowledge of "intangibles" that these few writers have is almost assuredly not going to impact who wins the award.
andrews
10/03
It will be interesting to see who does win the award. Measuring an individuals performance is of course very important but it shouldn't be the sole criteria to who wins an award in a given year.
pizzacutter
10/03
If you're going to apply the logic that clubhouse presence counts, you have to apply it fairly. You can't simply assume that Cabrera (or Trout) "made their team better" while ignoring the fact that the other might have done so as well.
andrews
10/03
Exactly, you have to rely on anecdotel evidence - which i'm sure the baseball writers will.
Behemoth
10/04
I'm sure they will all carefully weigh up the data, the anecdotal evidence, and so on, and make a sensible decision based on that. Either that, or they'll do it the same way they always do.
Churchill
10/03
Detroit may be headed for the postseason and the Angels headed home for the playoffs, but LAA ends the season with a better overall record than the Tigers and have done so in a significantly tougher division. So the team issue doesn't truly help Cabrera, either.
andrews
10/03
A team only has to beat what is put in front of it. The Tigers were in a penant race and won. I know the cult of personality has long been overstated but that doesn't mean it should be ignored completely - just because it's impossible to measure a a metric.
Behemoth
10/04
Do you really think that renowned drunk driver Miguel Cabrera is that much nicer than notorious hard worker and team player Mike Trout to make up for the extra three wins or so in value that Trout generated, or is it just that you think Cabrera should win regardless and you are spouting assorted rubbish to try and muddy the waters a bit?
andrews
10/04
Does this dignigify a response..... no, i don't think it does
andrews
10/04
On reflection, none of us know who should win the MVP because we haven't spent the whole season in locker rooms and talking to the players. I've never said he should win the MVP - please point out where i have? My only point is that highest WARP does not necessarily equal MVP.
lgranillo
10/03
Apologies for not getting my ballot in. It wasn't intentional. Not that I would have changed anything. My MVP and ROY (and prob. MOY) votes would have almost certainly been the same thing. I might have toyed with putting Braun first before eventually giving it to Posey and I would certainly have had Aoki in the top 3 for ROY. For the Cy, I'm still not sure who I'd've voted #1, but it almost certainly would have been between Verlander/Price and Dickey/Kershaw (so, again, no harm, no foul).
tannerg
10/03
Churchill's Manager of the Year vote makes me think that he has also been partaking in some nose candy.
bradleyankrom
10/03
Welcome to BP, Jason.
woodson
10/03
Is Yonder Alonso not eligible for RoY?
bradleyankrom
10/03
Eligible, yes.
andrews
10/03
As an aside - who do people think will win the MVP?. I really have no idea.
bradleyankrom
10/03
I think Cabrera is going to win it in the AL, Posey in the NL.
andrews
10/03
I presume the BP staffers are eligible to vote?
yankeehater32
10/03
Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff choices for the major player awards
Yes.
andrews
10/03
Trout has a 27 to 1 lead then ;-)
JoshShep50
10/03
If by eligible to vote you mean the actual vote that determines who will win these awards, I am not. That said, I can't speak to whether the other writers are or are not eligible to vote.
myshkin
10/04
No one who has a ballot for the actual award is supposed to publish anything about how they will vote ahead of the results announcement. So, I wouldn't expect any of the BP staffers listed above to have votes for any of these awards. See bbwaa.com/voting-faq/ for more details on the voting pools.
andrews
10/04
Thanks, great post
cwyers
10/04
Voting is restricted to BBWAA members, of which there are a few around here (Jay and Ben, I believe).
bornyank1
10/04
And the votes rotate within BBWAA chapters, so the more members there are in your chapter, the less often you get a vote. Don't know about Jay, but I'm not voting on anything this year, which means I'm free to make my meaningless picks here.
jnossal
10/04
I think Cabrera wins the MVP for three reasons: 1. Tigers made the playoffs, Angels did not. 2. Triple Crown props. 3. Trout suffers from "splitting" the awards, as in many writers will split their ballot into Trout for RoY and Cabrera for MVP vote. Also not too unlike those who vote for old favorites in the All-Star and Gold Glove balloting while hot-shot rookies have to wait a year or two before they "earned" their vote. Mind, I'm not arguing that Cabrera deserves to win, just predicting that he will and why.
rawagman
10/04
I don't think your 3rd point holds water. Voters don't vote on all of the awards. From my understanding, some writers get one award to vote on, others get none. I don't think that anyone will be partaking in the actual MVP and ROY awards in the same year.
jnossal
10/05
You are correct, but I don't think that changes the philosophy any. Trout is a shoo-in for the ROY, so enough MVP voters will go for Cabrera, figuring the handing of two pieces of hardware to Trout would be overkill. Not any different really from voters who don't consider pitchers for the MVP and just count on the CY voters to sort out the hurlers.
salvomania
10/04
If Josh Hamilton had hit two more home runs, how would that affect Cabrera's MVP case? If it would affect it at all, then I find it hard to support the argument that Cabrera should be the MVP...