The first-overall pick of the Rule 4 draft has delivered an average of 19.12 career WARP (using 1965-2007). Here is a team of players whose careers were roughly as productive as the average number-one pick:

P – Tim Belcher (18.66 WARP)
C – Todd Hundley (19.38)
1BBill Buckner (19.25)
2BJim Lefebvre (18.74)
3BGregg Jefferies (19.44)
SS – Jose Offerman (19.33)
LF – Kal Daniels (19.06)
CF – Richard Hidalgo (18.91)
RF – Jeromy Burnitz (19.61)

Thank you for reading

This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.

Subscribe now
You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
This interesting. I suspect if he does become Jose Offerman that he will be considered a bust. But would that be fair?
I don't think it woud be, no. As hyprvypr points out below, Offerman had a few very good seasons and wasn't a terrible player for his career.
While Offerman might not be sexy, nor a superstar, if you take a closer look, he posted several really good seasons, scraping .400 OBP and speed/doubles/double digit power. Certainly not a bad player.
Everyone on that list was a pretty good player, but many of them ended up being viewed as disappointments in some ways (Jefferies, Offerman, Daniels all got superstar hype early in their careers).
Yeah, I may have been a little facetious with the selections... tried to stick with guys who had played semi-recently, with preference given to players considered "disappointments."
Bradley - certainly an interesting slant to put on the pick, but what would be the 60th, 70th, 40th and 30th percentiles of value (and their comps) from the 1-1 slot?
Offerman was done as a regular shortstop after his age 26 season and wasn't that good of a shortstop (or 2B). Even if Correa doesn't exactly match Offerman's offensive production, if he can stick at shortstop till he's 30 or the middle infield until his mid 30s then he could "beat" Offerman.