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Team Injury Projections

The Team Injury Projections are here, driven by our brand new injury forecasting system, the Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results—or, more succinctly, CHIPPER. Thanks to work by Colin Wyers and Dan Turkenkopf and a database loaded with injuries dating back to the 2002 season—that's nearly 4,600 players and well over 400,000 days lost to injury—we now have a system that produces injury-risk assessments to three different degrees. CHIPPER projects ratings for players based on their injury history—these ratings measure the probability of a player missing one or more games, 15 or more games, or 30 or more games. CHIPPER will have additional features added to it throughout the spring and early season that will enhance the accuracy of our injury coverage.

These ratings are also available in the Player Forecast Manager (pfm.baseballprospectus.com), where they'll be sortable by league or position—you won’t have to wait for us to finish writing this series in order to see the health ratings for all of the players.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Team Audit | Depth Chart
 

Dashboard


2010 Recap
 

2010
 

2009
 

2008
 

2007
4th in NL West
35 entries
19 DL trips
               

685
TDL

20
DMPI
 

685
TDL
5th
 

20
DMPI
15th
 

1354
TDL
26th
 

25
DMPI
21st
 

1573
TDL
24th
 

36
DMPI
27th
 

922
TDL
11th
 

26
DMPI
13th

Hitters in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
Rafael Furcal

33

141

3

58

Red

Red

Red
Matt Kemp

26

1

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Andre Ethier

29

0

1

18

Red

Yellow

Green
James Loney

27

0

3

1

Yellow

Green

Green
Casey Blake

37

1

29

5

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Juan Uribe

32

15

16

14

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Jay Gibbons

34

0

0

4

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Rod Barajas

35

17

3

31

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Marcus Thames

34

5

44

26

Red

Red

Red
Tony Gwynn

28

19

0

29

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Aaron Miles

34

0

120

0

Yellow

Yellow

Yellow
Jamey Carroll

37

4

37

3

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Dioner Navarro

27

21

3

13

Yellow

Green

Green

Pitchers in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
Clayton Kershaw

23

0

16

0

Green

Green

Green
Chad Billingsley

26

0

10

22

Green

Green

Green
Ted Lilly

35

0

41

29

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Hiroki Kuroda

36

19

95

0

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Jon Garland

31

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Vicente Padilla

33

39

50

102

Red

Red

Red
Jonathan Broxton

27

0

10

2

Green

Green

Green
Matt Guerrier

32

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Hong-Chih Kuo

29

29

85

27

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Lance Cormier

30

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Scott Elbert

26

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Kenley Jansen

23

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Ramon Troncoso

28

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Blake Hawksworth

28

0

0

15

Yellow

Green

Green

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BillJohnson
4/01
The news today that Matt Holliday is undergoing an appendectomy (no, this is not an April Fools joke) gets me thinking about a possible addition to these summaries: is there any way to show which guys have injuries that are not baseball-related, or otherwise, not anything that a training staff could have prevented or mitigated? The difference between a strained hammy from inadequate stretching, and an appendectomy or mononucleosis (sympathies, Bronson Arroyo, been there...), is the difference between something a team might try to address, and something that's plain old bad luck.