Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.
For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
One serious note before we get down to the fun, though. Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks are still running their contest for the Up and In podcast. There are loads of awesome prizes, and it's for a good cause (Doctors Without Borders). Please consider entering and join in the fun!
American League Standings
AL East
Team | Average | Total |
Boston Red Sox | 1.1 (29) | 32 |
New York Yankees | 2.3 (1) | 69 |
Tampa Bay Rays | 2.7 | 80 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 4.5 | 134 |
Baltimore Orioles | 4.5 | 136 |
AL Central
Team | Average | Total |
Chicago White Sox | 1.7 (13) | 51 |
Minnesota Twins | 1.8 (10) | 55 |
Detroit Tigers | 2.5 (7) | 74 |
Cleveland Indians | 4.2 | 125 |
Kansas City Royals | 4.8 | 145 |
AL West
Team | Average | Total |
Texas Rangers | 1.3 (20) | 40 |
Oakland Athletics | 1.7 (10) | 52 |
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 2.9 | 88 |
Seattle Mariners | 4.0 | 120 |
Individual Awards
AL MVP
- 1B Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox, 24, 212 (15)
- 3B Evan Longoria, Rays, 21, 154 (7)
- 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, 9, 62 (1)
- 2B Robinson Cano, Yankees, 8, 58 (2)
- C Joe Mauer, Twins, 9, 58 (2)
- 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 6, 36
- 3B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox, 2, 20 (2)
- LF Josh Hamilton, Rangers, 3, 17
- LF Carl Crawford, Red Sox, 1, 10 (1)
- RF Nelson Cruz, Rangers, 1, 7
- RF Shin-Soo Choo, Indians, 1, 5
- DH Adam Dunn, White Sox, 1, 5
- 2B Ian Kinsler, Rangers, 1, 5
- CF Alex Rios, White Sox, 1, 5
- 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees, 1, 5
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners, 23, 84 (11)
- Jon Lester, Red Sox, 21, 77 (12)
- CC Sabathia, Yankees, 16, 47 (3)
- Justin Verlander, Tigers, 9, 29 (3)
- David Price, Rays, 8, 22 (1)
- Dan Haren, Angels, 5, 7
- Gio Gonzalez, Athletics, 1, 3
- Jered Weaver, Angels, 3, 3
- Brett Anderson, Athletics, 2, 2
- C.J. Wilson, Rangers, 1, 1
AL RotY
- SP Jeremy Hellickson, Rays, 29, 119 (20)
- 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals, 9, 25 (3)
- SP Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays, 9, 23 (2)
- SP Michael Pineda, Mariners, 9, 20
- C J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays, 5, 13 (1)
- SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins, 5, 13 (1)
- C Jesus Montero, Yankees, 6, 12
- 2B Dustin Ackley, Mariners, 3, 9 (1)
- 1B Eric Hosmer, Royals, 1, 5 (1)
- SP Zach Britton, Orioles, 2, 4
- LF Desmond Jennings, Rays, 2, 4
- RP Jake McGee, Rays, 1, 3
- RP Chris Sale, White Sox, 1, 3
- 3B Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians, 2, 2
- CF Lorenzo Cain, Royals, 1, 1
- 3B Brent Morel, White Sox, 1, 1
National League Standings
NL East
Team | Average | Total |
Philadelphia Phillies | 1.3 (20) | 40 |
Atlanta Braves | 1.7 (10) | 52 |
Florida Marlins | 3.1 | 93 |
New York Mets | 4.1 | 124 |
Washington Nationals | 4.8 | 144 |
NL Central
Team | Average | Total |
Cincinnati Reds | 1.7 (14) | 52 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 1.8 (11) | 55 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 2.6 (5) | 79 |
Chicago Cubs | 3.8 | 114 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.4 | 161 |
Houston Astros | 5.6 | 169 |
NL West
Team | Average | Total |
San Francisco Giants | 1.4 (21) | 41 |
Colorado Rockies | 2.1 (7) | 64 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 2.8 (2) | 84 |
San Diego Padres | 3.8 | 113 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.8 | 143 |
Individual Awards
NL MVP
- 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals, 28, 252 (20)
- SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies, 19, 123 (4)
- LF Ryan Braun, Brewers, 9, 65 (2)
- 1B Joey Votto, Reds, 8, 50
- 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers, 6, 41 (1)
- SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, 7, 41
- CF Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies, 3, 27 (2)
- CF Jay Bruce, Reds, 3, 15
- C Buster Posey, Giants, 2, 14
- 1B Ryan Howard, Phillies, 2, 12
- RF Jason Heyward, Braves, 1, 10 (1)
- C Brian McCann, Braves, 2, 10
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay, Phillies, 27, 103 (12)
- Tim Lincecum, Giants, 17, 53 (6)
- Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 8, 28 (5)
- Josh Johnson, Marlins, 12, 26 (1)
- Cliff Lee, Phillies, 9, 21 (2)
- Zack Greinke, Brewers, 4, 12 (2)
- Cole Hamels, Phillies, 3, 11 (2)
- Tommy Hanson, Braves, 3, 5
- Matt Cain, Giants, 2, 4
- Chris Carpenter, Cardinals, 1, 3
- Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies, 2, 2
- R.A. Dickey, Mets, 1, 1
- Roy Oswalt, Phillies, 1, 1
NL RotY
- 1B Freddie Freeman, Braves, 25, 93 (12)
- 1B Brandon Belt, Giants, 23, 67 (10)
- RP Aroldis Chapman, Reds, 20, 66 (9)
- SP Brandon Beachy, Braves, 3, 9 (1)
- RF Domonic Brown, Phillies, 6, 8
- SP Mike Minor, Braves, 3, 7 (1)
- SS Danny Espinosa, Nationals, 2, 4
- RP Craig Kimbrel, Braves, 4, 4
- 3B Matt Dominguez, Marlins, 1, 1
- R.J. Anderson
- Bill Baer
- Stephani Bee
- Tommy Bennett
- Jason Collette
- Corey Dawkins
- Neil deMause
- Jeff Euston
- Ken Funck
- Steve Goldman
- Kevin Goldstein
- Larry Granillo
- Jeremy Greenhouse
- Joe Hamrahi
- Jay Jaffe
- Michael Jong
- Christina Kahrl
- David Laurila
- Ben Lindbergh
- Joey Matschulat
- Marc Normandin
- Jason Parks
- John Perrotto
- Mike Petriello
- Emma Span
- Michael Street
- Matt Swartz
- Brandon Warne
- Colin Wyers
- Geoff Young
R.J. Anderson
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays* | Twins | Athletics |
Yankees | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Josh Hamilton
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
- Felix Hernandez
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- J.P. Arencibia
- Brent Morel
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Cardinals | Rockies |
Phillies* | Brewers | Giants |
Marlins | Reds | Dodgers |
Nationals | Cubs | Padres |
Mets | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Buster Posey
- Joey Votto
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Chris Carpenter
- Cliff Lee
NL RotY
- Brandon Belt
- Freddie Freeman
- Matt Dominguez
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Twins* | Rangers |
Yankees | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Royals | Mariners |
Orioles | Indians |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Miguel Cabrera
- Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- Felix Hernandez
- Jered Weaver
AL RotY
- Kyle Drabek
- Jeremy Hellickson
- J.P. Arencibia
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Rockies |
Braves* | Brewers | Padres |
Marlins | Cubs | Giants |
Nationals | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young
- Cole Hamels
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
- Mike Minor
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Athletics |
Yankees* | Twins | Rangers |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Robinson Cano
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Justin Verlander
- Jon Lester
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Mike Moustakas
- Jesus Montero
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Giants |
Braves* | Reds | Rockies |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Nationals | Cubs | Padres |
Mets | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Ryan Braun
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
- Josh Johnson
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Aroldis Chapman
- Brandon Belt
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Athletics |
Rays* | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees | White Sox | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Miguel Cabrera
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Joe Mauer
AL Cy Young
- Justin Verlander
- Felix Hernandez
- Dan Haren
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Desmond Jennings
- Mike Moustakas
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Brewers | Giants |
Phillies* | Reds | Dodgers |
Marlins | Cardinals | Rockies |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Ryan Braun
- Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tommy Hanson
- Clayton Kershaw
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
- Aroldis Chapman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays* | Twins | Athletics |
Yankees | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Carl Crawford
- Nelson Cruz
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- Felix Hernandez
- Justin Verlander
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Kyle Drabek
- Michael Pineda
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Rockies |
Braves* | Brewers | Giants |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Albert Pujols
- Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
- Clayton Kershaw
- Tim Lincecum
- Cole Hamels
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
- Danny Espinosa
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Yankees* | Twins | Angels |
Rays | Tigers | Athletics |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Joe Mauer
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
AL RotY
- Dustin Ackley
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka
- Jeremy Hellickson
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Rockies |
Braves* | Reds | Giants |
Marlins | Cubs | Dodgers |
Nationals | Cardinals | Padres |
Mets | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Prince Fielder
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
- Cliff Lee
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Freddie Freeman
- Craig Kimbrel
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Twins | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Miguel Cabrera
- Joe Mauer
AL Cy Young
- Justin Verlander
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Michael Pineda
- Lonnie Chisenhall
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Reds | Giants |
Phillies* | Brewers | Padres |
Mets | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Marlins | Cubs | Rockies |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
- Clayton Kershaw
NL RotY
- Brandon Belt
- Aroldis Chapman
- Freddie Freeman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Athletics |
Yankees* | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Evan Longoria
- Josh Hamilton
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- Justin Verlander
- David Price
AL RotY
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka
- Jake McGee
- Jeremy Hellickson
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Rockies |
Braves | Brewers | Giants* |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Nationals | Cubs | Padres |
Mets | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Ryan Braun
- Albert Pujols
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Josh Johnson
- Roy Halladay
- Matt Cain
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Beachy
- Brandon Belt
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Rangers |
Yankees* | Twins | Athletics |
Rays | White Sox | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Miguel Cabrera
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
- Felix Hernandez
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Jesus Montero
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Rockies |
Marlins | Reds | Giants* |
Braves | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Albert Pujols
- Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Brandon Belt
- Freddie Freeman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Yankees* | Tigers | Athletics |
Rays | Twins | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Evan Longoria
- Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- David Price
- CC Sabathia
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Dustin Ackley
- Zach Britton
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Reds | Giants |
Phillies* | Brewers | Dodgers |
Marlins | Cardinals | Rockies |
Nationals | Cubs | Padres |
Mets | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Ryan Braun
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
- Roy Oswalt
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Aroldis Chapman
- Brandon Belt
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Athletics |
Yankees* | Twins | Rangers |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Alex Rodriguez
- Adam Dunn
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
- Brett Anderson
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Kyle Drabek
- Dustin Ackley
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Dodgers |
Braves* | Brewers | Giants |
Mets | Cardinals | Rockies |
Marlins | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
Nationals | Pirates | Padres |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Ryan Braun
- Jay Bruce
NL Cy Young
- Clayton Kershaw
- Roy Halladay
- Tommy Hanson
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
- Domonic Brown
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Royals | Mariners |
Orioles | Indians |
AL MVP
- Robinson Cano
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
- Felix Hernandez
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Jesus Montero
- Mike Moustakas
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Giants |
Braves* | Reds | Rockies |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Zack Greinke
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Freddie Freeman
- Domonic Brown
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Twins | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Justin Verlander
- CC Sabathia
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Michael Pineda
- Jesus Montero
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Giants |
Braves* | Cardinals | Rockies |
Marlins | Reds | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Hanley Ramirez
- Joey Votto
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Cliff Lee
- Zack Greinke
NL RotY
- Brandon Belt
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Beachy
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Royals | Mariners |
Orioles | Indians |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Robinson Cano
- Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- CC Sabathia
- David Price
AL RotY
- Kyle Drabek
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Mike Moustakas
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Giants |
Braves | Brewers | Rockies* |
Mets | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Marlins | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
NL Cy Young
- Cliff Lee
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Domonic Brown
- Brandon Belt
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Athletics |
Yankees* | Twins | Rangers |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
- Jered Weaver
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Zach Britton
- Mike Moustakas
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Brewers | Dodgers |
Phillies* | Cardinals | Giants |
Marlins | Reds | Rockies |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Brian McCann
NL Cy Young
- Clayton Kershaw
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Miguel Cabrera
- Robinson Cano
AL Cy Young
- CC Sabathia
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
AL RotY
- Abstained from voting
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Giants |
Braves | Reds | Rockies* |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Hanley Ramirez
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
NL RotY
- Abstained from voting.
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays* | Tigers | Rangers |
Yankees | Twins | Angels |
Orioles | Royals | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Indians |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Evan Longoria
- Alex Rios
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- Justin Verlander
- Dan Haren
AL RotY
- Mike Moustakas
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Michael Pineda
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Giants |
Marlins* | Cubs | Rockies |
Braves | Brewers | Dodgers |
Mets | Cardinals | Padres |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Buster Posey
- Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
- Tim Lincecum
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Brandon Belt
- Domonic Brown
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Athletics |
Rays* | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees | White Sox | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Kevin Youkilis
- Evan Longoria
- Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young
- Justin Verlander
- David Price
- Brett Anderson
AL RotY
- J.P. Arencibia
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Reds | Rockies |
Phillies* | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Marlins | Brewers | Giants |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Ryan Braun
- Jay Bruce
NL Cy Young
- Clayton Kershaw
- Roy Halladay
- Tommy Hanson
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Evan Longoria
- Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
- Jon Lester
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Chris Sale
- Michael Pineda
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Giants |
Braves* | Brewers | Dodgers |
Marlins | Cardinals | Rockies |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Joey Votto
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
- Cliff Lee
NL RotY
- Brandon Belt
- Freddie Freeman
- Aroldis Chapman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Royals | Mariners |
Orioles | Indians |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Miguel Cabrera
- Josh Hamilton
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
- David Price
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- J.P. Arencibia
- Kyle Drabek
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Reds | Giants |
Phillies* | Cardinals | Rockies |
Marlins | Brewers | Dodgers |
Nationals | Cubs | Padres |
Mets | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Joey Votto
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
- Cliff Lee
NL RotY
- Brandon Belt
- Freddie Freeman
- Aroldis Chapman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays* | Twins | Athletics |
Yankees | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Miguel Cabrera
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Michael Pineda
- J.P. Arencibia
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Reds | Giants |
Phillies | Brewers* | Padres |
Mets | Cardinals | Rockies |
Marlins | Cubs | Dodgers |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Joey Votto
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
- Zack Greinke
NL RotY
- Mike Minor
- Brandon Belt
- Domonic Brown
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Rangers |
Yankees* | Twins | Athletics |
Blue Jays | White Sox | Angels |
Rays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Robinson Cano
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Ian Kinsler
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- David Price
- C.J. Wilson
AL RotY
- Eric Hosmer
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Kyle Drabek
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Giants |
Braves* | Cardinals | Rockies |
Marlins | Cubs | Dodgers |
Mets | Brewers | Padres |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Hanley Ramirez
- Jay Bruce
NL Cy Young
- Cole Hamels
- Josh Johnson
- R.A. Dickey
NL RotY
- Brandon Belt
- Aroldis Chapman
- Mike Minor
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Yankees | Twins | Rangers |
Rays* | White Sox | Athletics |
Red Sox | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Joe Mauer
- Alex Rodriguez
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- CC Sabathia
- Dan Haren
- Felix Hernandez
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Michael Pineda
- Kyle Drabek
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Cardinals | Giants |
Phillies* | Reds | Padres |
Mets | Brewers | Rockies |
Marlins | Cubs | Dodgers |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Ryan Howard
- Brian McCann
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Matt Cain
- Ubaldo Jimenez
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Danny Espinosa
- Craig Kimbrel
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays* | Twins | Athletics |
Yankees | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Robinson Cano
- Joe Mauer
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
- Justin Verlander
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Kyle Drabek
- Lonnie Chisenhall
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Reds | Giants |
Braves* | Brewers | Rockies |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Joey Votto
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Clayton Kershaw
- Roy Halladay
- Tim Lincecum
NL RotY
- Brandon Belt
- Freddie Freeman
- Aroldis Chapman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Athletics |
Rays* | White Sox | Rangers |
Yankees | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Robinson Cano
- Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy Young
- CC Sabathia
- Gio Gonzalez
- Dan Haren
AL RotY
- Mike Moustakas
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Jesus Montero
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Giants |
Braves* | Reds | Dodgers |
Marlins | Cubs | Rockies |
Mets | Cardinals | Padres |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Ryan Braun
- Albert Pujols
- Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
- Cliff Lee
- Tim Lincecum
- Clayton Kershaw
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Rangers |
Rays* | Twins | Athletics |
Yankees | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Royals | Mariners |
Orioles | Indians |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Joe Mauer
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- David Price
- Jon Lester
- Felix Hernandez
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Mike Moustakas
- Michael Pineda
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Braves | Cardinals | Giants |
Phillies* | Brewers | Rockies |
Marlins | Reds | Dodgers |
Nationals | Cubs | Diamondbacks |
Mets | Pirates | Padres |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Joey Votto
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Aroldis Chapman
- Craig Kimbrel
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Alex Rodriguez
- Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- Jon Lester
- Jered Weaver
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Jesus Montero
- Desmond Jennings
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Giants |
Braves* | Reds | Rockies |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
- Ryan Howard
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Cliff Lee
- Tim Lincecum
NL RotY
- Aroldis Chapman
- Freddie Freeman
- Domonic Brown
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | White Sox | Athletics |
Yankees* | Twins | Rangers |
Rays | Tigers | Angels |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Robinson Cano
- Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young
- Jon Lester
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Michael Pineda
- Lorenzo Cain
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Brewers | Giants |
Braves* | Reds | Rockies |
Marlins | Cardinals | Dodgers |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Jason Heyward
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
NL Cy Young
- Zack Greinke
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Brandon Belt
- Aroldis Chapman
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Tigers | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Athletics |
Rays | Twins | Angels |
Orioles | Indians | Mariners |
Blue Jays | Royals |
AL MVP
- Kevin Youkilis
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
AL Cy Young
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
- Dan Haren
AL RotY
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Tsuyoshi Nishioka
- Michael Pineda
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Giants |
Braves | Brewers | Dodgers |
Marlins | Reds | Rockies |
Mets | Cubs | Padres |
Nationals | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
Astros |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Ryan Braun
NL Cy Young
- Tim Lincecum
- Roy Halladay
- Cliff Lee
NL RotY
- Brandon Beachy
- Aroldis Chapman
- Craig Kimbrel
AL Standings
AL East | AL Central | AL West |
Red Sox | Twins | Rangers |
Yankees* | White Sox | Angels |
Rays | Tigers | Athletics |
Blue Jays | Indians | Mariners |
Orioles | Royals |
AL MVP
- Evan Longoria
- Joe Mauer
- Shin-Soo Choo
AL Cy Young
- David Price
- Felix Hernandez
- CC Sabathia
AL RotY
- Mike Moustakas
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Kyle Drabek
NL Standings
NL East | NL Central | NL West |
Phillies | Cardinals | Giants |
Braves | Brewers | Rockies* |
Marlins | Reds | Padres |
Mets | Cubs | Dodgers |
Nationals | Astros | Diamondbacks |
Pirates |
NL MVP
- Albert Pujols
- Joey Votto
- Troy Tulowitzki
NL Cy Young
- Roy Halladay
- Josh Johnson
- Ubaldo Jimenez
NL RotY
- Freddie Freeman
- Aroldis Chapman
- Brandon Belt
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Seriously, though, I suppose it's possible. The Rays and Yankees could have an overall tie record-wise, but the Rays could finish above them in the division if they had a better head-to-head record against the Yanks. The Wild Card tiebreaker game could then be won by the Yankees (although I'm not 100% sure if that game counts on the regular season standings).
Looks like it's been fixed.
1) I can only speak for myself, but I think most of us use PECOTA the same way: we look at it, give it some weight, then apply our own beliefs, analyses and prejudices. The less I know or have actually watched a player, the more weight I give to the projection. Sometimes this turns out well (see: drafting Colby Lewis and Dustin Pedroia); sometimes it doesn't (see: drafting Chad Orvella and Justin Huber). I'm more optimistic about Longoria than PECOTA is.
2) I'll leave it to someone that tinkers with the machine to give explanations for why Longoria's projection is lower than many indidivual expectations, but it's certainly possible that PECOTA is dead on and the collective "we" have been thrown off by our own opinions, desires, expectations and eyes.
As for our picks relative to PECOTA, players can (and do) beat PECOTA projections--and players who exceed expectations are often chosen as MVPs.
"Tell me, O muse, of those ingenious heroes Kinsler and Wilson who travelled far and wide after they had sacked the famous town of Arlington ... "
How many times has BP picked the Red Sox the past decade? I think about 7. How many times have they been right? Exactly once. (One other year the Red Sox did win the division, BP picked the Yankees).
The Yankees have a lot more flexibilty for mid season additions to correct their starter problems.
The Red Sox have exactly none. Locked in with all those contracts. If Beckett and Matzo have the same season as last, the Yankees will have the better 4th and 5th starters by the end of the year.