We've just rolled out some updates to the player cards:
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we've updated contemporary player photos and team logos, and we've now got historical player photos courtesy of Dave Davis (for example, have a look at our Babe Ruth and Walter Johnson cards). Thanks, Dave!
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you'll see a couple of new graphs replacing the old ones on the PECOTA cards. The graph entitled "Beta Value" is actually WARP by year. Please let us know if you have any trouble seeing it in your browser, as it is about as different as possible behind the scenes from the old ones.
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you'll find "book" WARP and the other statistics used in Baseball Prospectus 2011 on the cards. We're continuing to add more of these to the cards and the rest of the site. We will be using these statistics in the cards and reports going forward.
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you'll see "Standard" and "Recent Performance" tables first on the card. These have a lot of overlap, but "Standard" doesn't have minor-league lines yet and "Recent Performance" only goes back to 2007. A few columns are also different. We're just including both for now so you'll have the most information we can give you, but we'll be combining these into a single table soon.
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Baseball Prospectus' Team Injury Projection expanded line, if available. You'll see the player's outlook across three different time periods, and days lost to injury per year since 2004. This feature is available to Premium subscribers only (except for San Francisco Giants player cards–see Freddy Sanchez and Tim Lincecum for examples)
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Baseball Prospectus' Injury History records, if available. Corey Dawkins' exclusive injury database powers our Team Injury Projection series, and now you'll see everything we know about every player.
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Jeff Euston's Compensation details, if available. All the information that Cots Baseball Contracts is famous for, expanded, re-formatted, and updated for 2011.
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a new Fantasy section, with Marc Normandin's Fantasy Tier Rating and the latest dollar values for common-format leagues from the Player Forecast Manager. This feature is available to Premium and Fantasy subscribers only (except for San Francisco Giants player cards–see Mark DeRosa and Jonathan Sanchez for examples)
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a register of updated PFM values as they become available, and the best Scoresheet information available anywhere, including the re-formulated SS/SIM. This feature is available to Premium and Fantasy subscribers only (except for San Francisco Giants player cards–see Pat Burrell and Barry Zito for examples)
- PECOTA percentiles for hitters and pitchers. All PECOTA information is available to Premium and Fantasy subscribers only (except for San Francisco Giants player cards–see Aubrey Huff and Cody Ross for examples)
We are working on the following features:
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10-year projections will be available this week.
- comparables, Upside, and updated MORP are in process but we do not have an ETA yet.
We're looking forward to releasing additional updates soon, and thank you for your patience.
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The percentiles are not there for me either.
I see nothing beneath breakout/att/coll data
That being out of the way, there's no way that Travis Snider has a 0% breakout rate.
Your presentation of historical and past stats is much improved.
Thanks.
Also, I'm not seeing percentiles. I take it this is being worked on?
We may adjust the placement of different data sets on the card--we know the projections where they are now is a bit of a departure from previous placement.
Thanks.
When is the PECOTA spreadsheet going to be updated????
The spreadsheet does not include playing time adjustments from the depth charts--for those, subscribers can generate a CSV from the PFM with any statistics you like. Does that meet your needs?
The timing is really amazingly poor, especially given that the delays over the last two years were excused by promises of a speedier process . . . this year. Or was that supposed to be last year?
And still no upside score for long-term keeper leagues. Unless I'm missing something, there's really very little left that makes PECOTA stand out from an increasingly free crowd.
/rant
Some honest advice, just give up on PECOTA - which the stats have shown has been at best in-line with the other systems out there since Nate Silver left. I don't think anyone takes its output seriously anymore anyways. And, if the player card are going to be a week before the season every year, just focus on the articles, cause every other website gets their projections and data out there weeks and months earlier and these cards have almost no value this late in the game.
I think BP has failed to recognize the increase in quality content out there on the internet these days.
There is a HUUGE discrepancy between the weighted mean projections and whats listed on the depth chart. What gives?
You can download the latest playing time projected PECOTAs by clicking the "Raw CSV Data" or "Raw TAB Data" buttons in the Player Forecast Manager, and we just added those buttons to the Depth Charts homepage.
Take Chad Billingsley: Same IP, H, BB, K, HR, but the depth chart (and player card "beta value" graph) lists 2.9 WARP. The weighted mean lists 4.3.
It appears the joke is on me; "granddad," old, slow, and past its prime.
With my current subscription expiring in nine days and still no 10-year projections it is a very sad day for me.
Once is an aberration, but the issues with PECOTA the last few years were to be resolved over a year ago.
I feel naive, but I guess I didn't realized at the time how vital Nate was to the entire operation.
I've been here a long-time though, and my natural inclination is to support BP. Had they actually delivered on some of the things that were mentioned 6 weeks ago when PECOTA first came out I'd be more patient now. But to my knowledge no one ever did post anything about Evan Longoria's bizarre projection after a staffer said they would look into it. There was a note that Colin was going to write something about the bizarre comps that people were noting on the PECOTA spreadsheet, again nothing. Oh well, just 5 more days.....
I was working on a longer explanation for the delays, but that's a good way to not get it completed quickly, so I'll try to sum up very briefly here.
We weren't as prepared for the complexity of what we tried to do this off-season as we thought we were. All of our translations and projections (and many of our statistics themselves, as you know if you've read the statistical introduction from Baseball Prospectus 2011) were re-built from the ground up with contemporary components on BP hardware. Where before we had individual BPers running all sorts of different processes on different machines, we've now got 98% of our stuff in SQL and Perl running on a dedicated server that many BPers can get to.
We put too much on Colin Wyers' shoulders this offseason, which is why you haven't heard from him in quite a while. We expected to make up some time with the transition of the database and processes to the central server, but that took a lot longer than we'd budgeted schedule-wise and because of that, we weren't able to leverage the efforts of the rest of our technical staff like we had planned.
When you look at where we are now structurally versus where we were in late March of 2009 and 2010 I like to think there are reasons for optimism, but I regret some forward-looking statements I've made in the past so I don't want to make any here, and I certainly understand it's cold comfort for those of you who were counting on the features we've been unable to release so far. I wish we'd been able to produce all of the components of the projections when they were reasonably expected.
I hope to contribute a worthy response if I get the opportunity; no time right now. It's March 29th. This is the third year I did not receive anything remotely close to what was promised.
I understand it is no small endeavor, bit it sounds like six months (off-season) would never be enough time to deliver.
That simply was never the case when Nate was involved,
2012 will be the first time in years that we are using the same code and processes that we did the previous year, and I'm really hopeful that'll solve the delays we've had. I wish I could offer something more concrete.
Please feel free to reply in the comment thread(s) or send me an email if you want to discuss this further, your choice. Our responsiveness has not been very good, mainly because we're trying to concentrate on the releases as much as humanly possible, but now that we're getting close we will do a better job.
Thanks for the offer; I may e-mail you, but I think BP will have to make me some guarantees or an awfully sweet offer to me. I've loyally ponied up the last three years' subscription fee & BP did not deliver a product remotely close to what was reasonably expected, for a few years now.
I certainly can't be confident in 2012 promises. That would make me a masochist, a fool, or both.
I wish I could because all of this both saddens & angers me.