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Team Injury Projections

The Team Injury Projections are here, driven by our brand new injury forecasting system, the Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results—or, more succinctly, CHIPPER. Thanks to work by Colin Wyers and Dan Turkenkopf and a database loaded with injuries dating back to the 2002 season—that's nearly 4,600 players and well over 400,000 days lost to injury—we now have a system that produces injury-risk assessments to three different degrees. CHIPPER projects ratings for players based on their injury history—these ratings measure the probability of a player missing one or more games, 15 or more games, or 30 or more games. CHIPPER will have additional features added to it throughout the spring and early season that will enhance the accuracy of our injury coverage.

These ratings are also available in the Player Forecast Manager (pfm.baseballprospectus.com), where they'll be sortable by league or position—you won’t have to wait for us to finish writing this series in order to see the health ratings for all of the players.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Team Audit | Depth Chart
 

Dashboard


2010 Recap
 

2010
 

2009
 

2008
 

2007
Finish here
52 entries
21 DL trips
               

830
TDL

16
DMPI
 

830
TDL
12th
 

16
DMPI
7th
 

869
TDL
6th
 

16
DMPI
7th
 

1018
TDL
17th
 

41
DMPI
29th
 

1105
TDL
16th
 

28
DMPI
17th

Hitters in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
Jimmy Rollins

32

24

0

87

Red

Red

Red
Placido Polanco

35

12

3

34

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Chase Utley

32

0

3

51

Red

Red

Yellow
Ryan Howard

31

0

2

19

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Raul Ibanez

39

0

26

2

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Shane Victorino

30

17

7

15

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Domonic Brown

23

0

0

18

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Carlos Ruiz

32

2

34

29

Red

Red

Yellow
Ross Gload

35

0

0

20

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Brian Bocock

26

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Wilson Valdez

33

0

0

1

Yellow

Green

Green
Ben Francisco

29

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
John Mayberry

27

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Brian Schneider

34

15

47

20

Red

Red

Red

Pitchers in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
Roy Halladay

34

0

16

0

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Cliff Lee

32

4

0

35

Yellow

Green

Green
Roy Oswalt

33

29

51

0

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Cole Hamels

27

0

9

0

Green

Green

Green
Joe Blanton

30

0

0

38

Yellow

Green

Green
Kyle Kendrick

26

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Brad Lidge

34

21

27

63

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Jose Contreras

39

86

14

0

Red

Red

Red
Ryan Madson

30

5

4

70

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Danys Baez

33

191

0

19

Red

Yellow

Yellow
J.C. Romero

35

3

107

27

Red

Red

Red
Antonio Bastardo

25

0

69

28

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Vance Worley

23

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green

Summary: Despite injuries to key players, including Jamie Moyer, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies still managed to outlast the Braves, who had to deal with their own assortment of injuries. The Phillies made a dramatic turnaround over the last two years by drastically decreasing their amount of time missed per injury. The hitters were hurt more often in 2010 (roughly 70 percent of the Phils’ database entries went to position players), but the pitching staff made up 63 percent of the days lost to injury, thanks to J.A. Happ (forearm strain), Ryan Madson (foot surgery), and Jamie Moyer (elbow sprain), among others.

CHIPPER does not think highly of Philly's health up the middle. Second baseman Chase Utley, who has been dealing with right knee patellar tendinitis for much of this spring, shortstop Jimmy Rollins, and center fielder Shane Victorino are all at risk to miss a fair amount of time due to injuries. Victorino is the least risky of the bunch, but not by so much that we would put money on his staying healthy this year. Flanking Victorino is the talented Domonic Brown—who has already validated his moderate risk level by fracturing his hand this spring—and Raul Ibanez, who is 38 years old and aging rapidly, by the looks of his 2010. The remainder of the lineup doesn’t make up for these issues, with both Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard just risky enough to make Phillies fans nervous, and the pair behind the plate (Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider) showing a whole lot of red.

Philadelphia made a statement this offseason by signing Cliff Lee, in the process putting together a rotation that is, quite frankly, a little scary. Not only will their starters be good, but they will also likely remain healthy. Roy Oswalt carries the most at risk, and he’s on the lower end of the moderate level thanks to lower back and hand issues over the last couple of years. Roy Halladay’s moderate risk (on the very low end) is well deserved considering his track record over the last several years—Halladay has averaged 245 innings over the past three years. Lee is similarly rated, as he hasn't experienced any major issues in a while, but he has missed some time over the past several years from abdominal and trunk strains. Cole Hamels rounds things out, giving the Phillies a decent chance to have their top four not miss a start throughout the season (or, at least, as decent a chance as a team can get). One other key member of the staff, closer Brad Lidge, is just a shade under high-risk. CHIPPER is pleased that Lidge is giving credence to its rating for him via biceps tendinitis, though we’ve told CHIPPER not to revel in the pain of others.

The health of the core four in the rotation is integral to the Phillies' success, given the downgrades, risks, and ages elsewhere on the roster. The pitching staff that the organization has assembled is impressive, but it’s only a piece of the playoff puzzle.

The Big Risk: Utley is dealing with persistent right knee patellar tendinitis that has thus far proven resistant to traditional treatments. If the affected area is more chronic in nature, then some of the tendon tissue can actually die and can lead to an increased risk of tearing. Assuming this continues, the Phillies may consider PRP injections, in which some of Utley's own platelets would be injected into the dead area. He would then be out for several weeks, but if that approach were to fail, he'd be looking at surgery to clean out the area, consigning him to the shelf for an even longer period. Utley has a tendency to play through injuries or return from them early, but he may cause more problems by doing so—the Phillies need to get this right, or else their lineup will be in serious trouble from the start.

Comeback: Rollins has the most to prove and could do his part to save the lineup if Utley is down for an extended period of time. Rollins has been starting to break down, making three DL trips over the last three years thanks to an increasing number of injuries to his lower extremities. He underwent surgery on his left wrist to remove ganglion cysts in December, which shouldn’t affect his play but does add one more entry into the database. He’s been healthy so far this spring, a potentially good sign for the Phils.

Best Health: Cole Hamels is trending in the right direction after having several issues earlier in his career.

Worst Health: Based on CHIPPER’s output above, it’s Rollins, but given what we know about the condition Utley is dealing with, it has to be him in this spot.

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