keyboard_arrow_uptop


Team Injury Projections

The Team Injury Projections are here, driven by our brand new injury forecasting system, the Comprehensive Health Index [of] Pitchers [and] Players [with] Evaluative Results—or, more succinctly, CHIPPER. Thanks to work by Colin Wyers and Dan Turkenkopf and a database loaded with injuries dating back to the 2002 season—that's nearly 4,600 players and well over 400,000 days lost to injury—we now have a system that produces injury-risk assessments to three different degrees. CHIPPER projects ratings for players based on their injury history–these ratings measure the probability of a player missing one or more games, 15 or more games, or 30 or more games. CHIPPER will have additional features added to it throughout the spring and early season that will enhance the accuracy of our injury coverage.

These ratings are also available in the Player Forecast Manager (pfm.baseballprospectus.com), where they'll be sortable by league or position—you won’t have to wait for us to finish writing this series in order to see the health ratings for all of the players.

NYA
Team Audit | Depth Chart
 

Dashboard


2010 Recap
 

2010
 

2009
 

2008
 

2007
2nd in AL East
58 entries
8 DL trips
               

654
TDL

11
DMPI
 

654
TDL
2nd
 

11
DMPI
2nd
 

913
TDL
11th
 

14
DMPI
5th
 

1529
TDL
23rd
 

27
DMPI
20th
 

1260
TDL
20th
 

24
DMPI
10th

Hitters in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
Derek Jeter

37

12

6

3

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Curtis Granderson

30

31

0

26

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Mark Teixeira

31

4

4

3

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Alex Rodriguez

35

27

44

28

Red

Red

Yellow
Robinson Cano

28

0

1

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Jorge Posada

39

112

37

26

Red

Red

Red
Nick Swisher

30

2

4

14

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Russell Martin

28

0

0

63

Red

Yellow

Yellow
Brett Gardner

27

0

47

6

Red

Red

Yellow
Eduardo Nunez

24

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Ramiro Pena

25

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Justin Maxwell

27

27

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Francisco Cervelli

25

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Andruw Jones

34

111

15

8

Red

Red

Yellow

Pitchers in approximate Depth Charts order at time of publication

 

Days Lost to Injury

2011 Injury Risk

Player

Age

2008

2009

2010

1-day

15-days

30-days
CC Sabathia

30

0

0

0

Yellow

Green

Green
Phil Hughes

25

136

0

0

Green

Green

Green
A.J. Burnett

34

0

0

5

Yellow

Green

Green
Freddy Garcia

35

0

0

0

Yellow

Yellow

Green
Ivan Nova

24

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Sergio Mitre

30

189

42

49

Red

Red

Red
Mariano Rivera

41

8

7

11

Red

Red

Red
Rafael Soriano

31

153

7

0

Yellow

Yellow

Green
David Robertson

26

0

15

11

Green

Green

Green
Pedro Feliciano

34

0

0

1

Yellow

Green

Green
Boone Logan

26

0

0

0

Green

Green

Green
Joba Chamberlain

25

30

1

0

Green

Green

Green

Summary: The 2010 season saw numerous lengthy injuries to some of New York's key names. Jorge Posada (fractured foot), Nick Johnson (wrist surgery), Andy Pettitte (groin strain) and lesser (but still important) pieces such as Damaso Marte (shoulder inflammation) and Alfredo Aceves (lumbar disc) all missed significant time. With the Rays still a factor in the American League East thanks to a strong core and the Red Sox reloading with stars like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Yankees will need to avoid a similar injury situation in 2011 in order to hold out hope for October baseball.

Avoiding injuries is easier said than done, especially after the years have piled up. Birthdays are good fun until you're the same age as some of the Yankees regulars—that's when the aches and pains start multiplying. The Yankees infield includes only one regular under 30; the remaining players are 30, 35, 36, and 39 (though Derek Jeter ranges to his left like a senior citizen). Yankee regulars don't do much frolicking in the green fields of low risk anymore, and they're starting to have trouble remembering what those days were even like.  

The shift to DH will help decrease some risk for Jorge Posada, but there is only so much you can do for a 39-year-old former backstop with his history of wear and tear. Alex Rodriguez is a high risk thanks to recent troubles after a relatively injury-free early career. Since 2008 Rodriguez has been on the disabled list twice and last year suffered many injuries that caused him to miss games; even when ostensibly healthy, his recovery from hip labrum surgery kept him from producing at the level he was capable of at a consistent rate throughout the season.

Only Francisco Cervelli ranks as a low risk among the projected regulars, which is a poor joke given that he was the first one to go down this spring. Jeter, Russell Martin, and Andruw Jones all should be considered very risky from a health standpoint, and both Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher dealt with injuries last season.

The only thing that can be said with any near certainty in the rotation is that CC Sabathia will take the mound every fifth day. Sabathia is the key to the rotation, as he is the lone starter with a history of both fine health and production—Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett need not only to stay healthy but also to pitch well. Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre all have extensive injury histories and are moderate health risks in 2011.

The bullpen is likely to be healthier than the lineup and possibly the starting rotation. Mariano Rivera's innings totals have been dropping ever so slightly, showing that he is not superhuman and is starting to break down from a physiological standpoint. CHIPPER thinks he's a risk to hit the disabled list in 2011 and rates only Damaso Marte as a greater liability. Rafael Soriano could fill the closer role temporarily, but he has his own hazardous injury history.

The Big Risk: Thanks to the lack of rotation depth, the biggest risk to the team is losing Sabathia to an injury. He does rate in the low-risk category, but that doesn’t mean that he's invincible; he did undergo his second surgery on his right knee (addressing either the meniscus or the cartilage) at the end of last year. Sabathia is clearly the ace of the staff, and while Bartolo Colon could fill the role of resident, uh, big-boned pitcher, he wouldn't be anywhere near as useful. Losing Sabathia could also put stress on the bullpen—the one area where health isn't a problem from the outset.

Comeback: Russell Martin wasn't on the Yankees last year, but he still qualifies as their most significant candidate for a comeback from injury. Martin fractured his hip in August and then underwent surgery to address a meniscal tear in his right knee in December. A catcher's knees and hips are crucial to his health over the course of a season—these guys average over 10,000 squats behind the plate per campaign. There aren't any useful comps for the hip, but the work on his knee was a relatively simple procedure without complications.

Best Health: Hughes has the least amount of risk among anyone on the Yankees, a good sign given the injury trouble he experienced earlier in his career.

Worst Health: As you probably gathered from above, it's Posada by a landslide: he has averaged only 94 games per year over the past three seasons. If he goes down this year, at least the Yankees can give top prospect Jesus Montero more time at the plate.

You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
ScottBehson
3/10
Cool feature. What does DMPI mean?
dturkenk
3/10
DMPI is "Days Missed Per Injury." It's a rough way to correct for some teams having more injuries than others. It combines severity of the injury with recovery time, so it could be broken down further, but as a starting point it's a good way to compare teams.
yankeehater32
3/10
We're adding these terms to the glossary as we go, so if you mouse over items like DMPI, you'll get the definition and explanation.
joelefkowitz
3/10
Sabathia isn't 28. Seems a little counter intuitive that the pitcher's forecast are so optimistic, but I suppose it could be the yanks' players in particular and not a faulty model. Sorry if the system was already explained, I must have missed it, but are the rating thresholds for each injury level different (i.e. a player with a X% chance of missing one or more days might get a yellow, but the same X% chance of missing 15 or more days would get him a red). I would hope it's relative to league average risk level at each injury degree because otherwise it would seem tough to imagine what a position player would look like who could rate as green for missing 1 or more day.
joelefkowitz
3/10
See you've changed Sabathia's age to 29. Not trying to be a pain but... he's not 29 either, he's 30. Bunch of others are wrong too. Burnett is 34, Mitre 30, etc.
crperry13
3/10
Love the graphics. Adds a lot to an already useful premise.
dcj207
3/10
Does CHIPPER differentiate by prior injury type? Broken bones would seem (to this layman) poor predictors, whereas muscle, ligament and tendon strains and tears would seem to have better predictive value.
dturkenk
3/10
Right now CHIPPER doesn't take injury type into account. The sample size for the various injury types is small enough that there needs to be more study before we can incorporate it into the model. Your idea of categorization is a good one though.
ferret
3/10
A simple paragraph detailing current and past problems for each key player would suffice for me.
ScottBehson
3/10
To piggy-back on Lefkowitz's comment- what distinguishes between a skull & bones, bones, and bone? Is it something like 50% likelihood, 25%, 10% or less? this is not defined, and needs to be defined up front. I do rather like the format.
cmeek70
3/10
I don't see how Mariano's decline in IP is a sign of him starting to break down. Could be the Yankees have made a conscious decision to keep his innings down. Also, if you include the postseason he actually pitched more innings in 09 than 08.
yankeehater32
3/11
They have made a conscious decision to keep his innings down to keep him from breaking down.
cidawkins
3/11
Also the last several years he has suffered from different injuries that didn't end up on the DL like groin, shoulder, and trunk strains/soreness.
acmcdowell
3/10
Quick question about Cano- why does he have the "yellow crossbones" for the 1 day and 15 day injury list given his past health? Is it just the nature of 2B to have high risk due to possible collisions during double plays and the like?
escapeNihlism
3/11
I think the cpu spit out Rivera as a high injury risk last year too and the disclaimer offered went something like, the cpu will always think a 40+ yr old power relief pitcher to be one hell of an injury risk.
dandaman
3/11
Okay, so you couldn't get a picture of guys like Soriano or Jones in a Yankee hat yet, but CC? AJ Burnett? Granderson, Teixeira, Swisher, etc. C'mon.
yankeehater32
3/11
Ask and you shall receive.
tcgoldman
3/11
re: Hughes - knock on wood. re: Nova - what is this "extensive injury history" you speak of? In the minors, he threw 100 ip in '07, 150 in '08, 140 in '09 and 185 (betw. MiL and MLB) in '10.
jthom17
3/12
It is a mistake to say Hughes is low risk when he is in the cross hairs fo the Verducci Effort (25 or younger and 46 IP increase over 2009). I thinK I think you need to add V/E to CHIPPER. It has proven to to be true too often. Other V/E SPs for 2011 are David Price, Mat Latos, Madison Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Travis Wood, alex Sanabia & Brett Cecil