It’s time to present the inaugural Golden Gun award, given to the league’s
best catcher at shooting down would-be baserunners. The winner is the
major-league leader in Stolen Base Runs Prevented (SBRP), which is
calculated from the number of opponent steals (SB), the number of runners
the catcher throws out (CS), and the number of runners the catcher picks off
(CPO), using this simple formula:
SBRP = 0.49*(CS+CPO) - 0.16*SB
If you want to know where this formula came from, see my Pudge vs. Piazza
article from this past spring on ESPN.com.
Without further ado, here is the 2001 Golden Gun winner, along with
his nine runners-up:
Catcher Team SB CS CPO SBRP Jason LaRue CIN 27 41 2 16.8 Mike Matheny STL 31 25 5 9.7 Einar Diaz CLE 84 45 2 9.4 Brad Ausmus HOU 45 30 4 9.4 Ivan Rodriguez TEX 23 23 3 9.0 Charles Johnson FLA 53 33 0 7.6 Paul LoDuca LAD 48 30 0 6.9 Henry Blanco MIL 43 27 1 6.7 Brandon Inge DET 30 23 0 6.4 Doug Mirabelli T/B 58 31 1 6.3
For nearly lapping the catcher field in the areas of arm strength and
accuracy, Jason LaRue will receive a fabulous prize, to be chosen by
the Baseball Prospectus staff from among the following: an
all-expenses-paid trip to the Bahamas (value: $8,000), a new Mazda Miata
(value: $25,000), our sincere congratulations and best wishes for a
successful 2002 season (priceless).
If you didn’t know about LaRue’s throwing prowess before now, that’s
understandable. This was his first year as eve a semi-regular starter, and
while he had a reputation as having an above-average arm, I don’t think
anyone expected him to put up numbers like this. In the past four years–the
only ones for which I have data–only Ivan Rodriguez and Mike
Matheny have put up better single-season totals than LaRue’s 2001.
Rodriguez and Matheny both make an appearance on this year’s top ten list,
and they’re not the only return performers. Of the ten catchers listed
above, six–Matheny, Rodriguez, Brad Ausmus, Charles Johnson,
Henry Blanco, and Doug Mirabelli–were among the top ten in
SBRP last year.
On the other side of the coin (and the spreadsheet) are the catchers whose
arms did the most damage to their teams:
Catcher Team SB CS CPO SBRP Scott Hatteberg BOS 115 10 0 -14.0 Mike Piazza NYM 113 22 0 -7.7 Michael Barrett MON 94 17 1 -6.6 Robert Fick DET 60 7 0 -6.4 Brook Fordyce BAL 97 21 0 -5.6 Todd Greene NYY 39 3 0 -4.9 Jason Kendall PIT 72 15 0 -4.4 Eddie Taubensee CLE 29 1 0 -4.3 Randy Knorr MON 27 1 0 -4.0 Todd Hundley CHC 50 9 0 -3.8
If LaRue’s 2001 totals are impressive, Scott Hatteberg‘s are
positively eye-popping. His Runs Prevented total of -14 is easily the worst
of the past four years (Mike Piazza‘s 2000 is next at -10.7). I doubt
it represents the worst catcher throwing year in history–for one thing, I
can still remember Craig Biggio launching eephus balls from behind
the plate–but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was among the worst.
These numbers make it clear just how much difference a throwing arm can make
to a catcher’s value. Take LaRue, for instance.
Davenport’s hitting metrics rate LaRue as well below average at his
position, just 29th among catchers in Runs Above Replacement Position. But
when you add in the value of LaRue’s arm, he moves up to rate among the very
best catchers in baseball overall.
For example, Robert Fick‘s bat was 17 runs better than LaRue’s. But
LaRue’s throwing was worth 23 runs more than Fick’s, enough to make up for
Fick’s offensive advantage and then some. Only a handful of major-league
catchers–Piazza, Rodriguez, Johnson, Paul LoDuca, Jorge
Posada, and Einar Diaz–have enough of an offensive advantage to
overcome LaRue’s huge edge in the throwing department.
A similar analysis suggests that Paul LoDuca may have been the most valuable
catcher in the majors last year, rather than Mike Piazza. Clay’s numbers
give Piazza a 14-run advantage over LoDuca at the plate, but SBRP gives
LoDuca’s arm a 15-run advantage over Piazza.
Applying the same reasoning to the other end of the catcher value spectrum
suggests that Scott Hatteberg’s defensive ineptitude made him the least
valuable catcher in the majors last year. Despite being a serviceable hitter
for his position (5.3 runs over replacement, according to Clay’s numbers),
Hatteberg doesn’t have a large enough offensive advantage over any catcher
in the league to make up for his disadvantage in SBRP.
Are we going to see LaRue among the contenders for the Golden Gun next year?
I think the odds are pretty good. His SBRP rating will probably regress some
in the next few years as baserunners and managers learn to avoid running on
him. But they won’t learn that well. Teams still run on Pudge
Rodriguez often enough to make his arm a very valuable asset to his team,
attempting a steal every 19 innings or so the past couple of seasons (down
from once every 15 innings in 1998). The most valuable catcher arms tend to
stay valuable from year to year. So even if he doesn’t improve his hitting,
LaRue is likely to remain a valuable major leaguer in the near future, based
solely on the strength of his arm.
Michael Wolverton is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact him by
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