Rk Team
Overall WL
Week WL
Hit List Factor


Bust a Power Move On ‘Em: The Padres maintain a healthy NL West lead, and lately their offense is showing more muscle. After hitting just 58 homers in their first 83 games (0.70 per game), the Pads have 19 in their last 10. Leading the way is Chris Denorfia, who’s got five of them, including a pair in a 4-for-4 effort against the Diamondbacks. Adding another four is Adrian Gonzalez, who’s now got 20; he’s the only Padre in double digits.


The Ocho: Winners of eight straight, the Cardinals retake the NL Central lead. They’ve been getting especially good work from Felipe Lopez lately; he’s hitting .337/.389/.446 since June 28, when he took over the third-base job for David Freese, who’s been sidelined by a bruised ankle, not to mention a broken big toe sustained via a 75-pound dumbell. The Cardinals may wish they could clone Lopez, since starting shortstop Brendan Ryan is putting up a Replacement-Level Killer-esque .203 True Average, and backup Tyler Greene is down with a wrist injury after hitting .313/.389/.500 since being recalled on July 2.


Picking Up the Slack: Matt Diaz homers and drives in three runs to carry the Braves past the Padres. It’s Diaz’s third straight game with a dinger, though he’s still hitting just .254/.286/.456 in an outfield that’s been futher burdened by the underperformances of Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera. Elsewhere, the team pulls off a questionable deal by trading struggling (.238/.334/.284), unpopular Yunel Escobar to the Blue Jays for Alex Gonzalez, a deal which may or may not help as the team goes for broke in Bobby Cox‘s final year, but will likely hurt them down the road.


The Road Gets Rocky: After winning nine of 12 leading up to the break, the Rox lose three out of their first five to start the second half. One of them comes as Ubaldo Jimenez is lit for six runs; it’s the fourth time in his last five starts he’s been roughed up, a span during which he’s yielded 22 runs in 31 innings-essentially doubling his ERA to 2.38-but avoided blemishing his 15-1 record. Meanwhile, Troy Tulowitzki is nearing a return; the team has gone 19-11 in his absence thanks in part to the hot bats of DP combo Clint Barmes (.330/.406/.447) and Jonathan Herrera (.349/.392/.413) in his absence.


Re-Armed: Edinson Volquez dominates the Rockies (6 3 1 1 0 9) in his return from Tommy John Surgery and a 50-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy. While the Reds’ rotation ranks a respectable sixth in the league, adding him to the mix is a huge boost given Aaron Harang‘s underperformance (5.02 ERA) and absence due to lower back pain, not to mention Mike Leake‘s innings cap. Not to be forgotten are the good works of rookies Matt Maloney (two starts, 3.09 ERA) and Travis Wood (four starts, 2.03 ERA); the latter even takes a no-hit bid into the ninth. Alas, the Reds haven’t scored in either of Maloney’s starts or either of Wood’s last two.


Using His Melon: Now we know what Bruce Bochy keeps in his oversized head (cap size 8 3/4): an encyclopedia of rulebook arcana. Bochy catches the Dodgers on a technicality which-improperly applied-forces closer Jonathan Broxton out of the game, helping the Giants rally in the ninth to overcome a dud of a Tim Lincecum start. Collecting two hits in that game, including an insurance RBI single, is Buster Posey, who’s riding a 15-game hitting streak. He’s batting .349/.383/.560, and the Giants are now an NL-best 12-6 since he took over the catching duties following the Bengie Molina trade.


Can’t Get No Relief: Two days after the Dodger bullpen squanders a 4-0 eighth-inning lead to enable a four-game sweep by the Cardinals, they fritter away a five-run outburst against Tim Lincecum and lose in bizarre fashion when acting manger Don Mattingly is improperly charged with a second mound visit due to a technicality and is forced to remove Jonathan Broxton. The Dodgers’ closer has now been lit for 11 runs in his last 7 1/3 innings dating back to his meltdown against the Yanks, exacerbating a bullpen situation where Ramon Troncoso has been Ronald Belisario placed on the restricted list for a substance abuse problem, and George Sherrill waived due to excessive craptacularity. Add it up and it’s a six-game losing streak for a team that’s still got rotation issues and now sans Manny Ramirez for another three weeks, after compiling just four plate appearances since his last trip to the DL.


Phadin’: The Phillies’ season continues to take a turn for the worse. This time it’s the pitching, which surrenders 43 runs in the team’s first six games after the break. Roy Halladay is pounded for six runs, Kyle Kendrick is bombed back to Triple-A, and Jamie Moyer departs with an elbow strain. The team is kicking the tires on Roy Oswalt and other potentially available starters, but with their already disappointing Playoff Odds falling below 11 percent, the question is whether another trade of prospects for veterans makes sense. If your problem is pitching, why shop J.A. Happ?


Look Out, Ubaldo: For his second straight start, Josh Johnson combines on a shutout; this time it’s against the Nationals. It’s the 12th consecutive start in which Johnson allows two runs or less, three starts shy of tying the post-1920 record. Johnson’s got an 0.74 ERA and an 83/12 K/BB ratio across that 85-inning span, and his 1.62 ERA leads the league. Meanwhile, his teammates help fluff up Cy Young competitor Ubaldo Jimenez’s mark by Donnie Murphy walkoff homer.


Welcome Back?Carlos Beltran makes his long-awaited his 2010 debut, but his overdue arrival comes amid a 2-9 skid in which the wheezing offense scores just 21 runs; the team has now lost 14 of 20 and fallen six games in the NL East standings. Clueless dolts may attribute the slide to clubhouse chemistry-namely the replacement of Replacement-Level Killers Jeff Francouer and Alex Cora, but the July struggles of Jason Bay (.169/.246/.220) and the aforementioned duo (Frenchy .114/.170/.159, Cora .184/.216/.286) explain the team’s problems in cold, hard numbers. The real questions about Beltran’s return are his ability to play center field and how much playing time he’ll steal from Angel Pagan, who ranks second on the club in True Average (.301).


Adieu, Sweet Lou: Mired in a second straight season of disappointment, Lou Piniella announces his retirement at the end of the season. He’s fourth among active managers in wins behind Tony La Russa, Bobby Cox, and Joe Torre, and 14th all-time, but he hasn’t taken a team to the World Series since his 1990 champions despite finishing with the league’s best record twice (2001 Mariners, 2008 Cubs); count me as one who thinks he falls short of Hall of Fame credentials, unless we’re talking about his knack for entertaining tantrums (boo to MLB’s stick-in-the-mud rights policies which deprive us of the definitive Piniella highlight reel). In any event, Aramis Ramirez commemorates the announcement with a three-homer, seven-ribbie game; he’s hitting .345/.389/.782, with 10 homers in 95 PA since returning from the disabled list; had he hit like this earlier in the year, Piniella might not be considering retirement.


We’ll Have to Step It the %^#$ Up: The Nats endure a 3-7 stretch, with the only wins coming-you guessed it-in Stephen Strasburg‘s three starts. He yields just four run in 17 2/3 innings while beating the Giants, Marlins, and Reds, but the rest of the rotation struggles to the tune of a 6.32 ERA, with just two quality starts out of seven. Strasburg’s now got a 2.32 ERA and 75/15 K/BB ratio in 54 1/3 innings-all good for a 2.04 SIERA, lest anyone think his work is a fluke. When ESPN color man Orel Hershiser says, “We’re going to run out of expletives” to describe the rookie, he’s %^#$@*& right.


The Capper: Chris Capuano waits out a rain delay and notches his first big-league win in three years. He’s got a 3.52 ERA in 15 1/3 innings since returning from the odyssey following his second Tommy John surgery, albeit mostly in mop-up work; the Brewers had gone 2-28 in his appearances since his last victory. The team’s had plenty of such work available lately, as David Bush and Randy Wolf becomes the third and fourth Brewer starters to be hammered for 10 runs in a 12-game span. Yuck.


A Rare Trey: Mark Reynolds collects three hits, including a homer and a triple in a 13-2 rout of the Mets, kicking off the Diamondbacks’ first three-game sweep of the year. The homer is Reynolds’ 21st, but the luster is somewhat off of his hit-or-miss style; he’s on a record-setting 227-strikeout pace, and a 57-point drop in his BABIP from last year to this (.338 to .281) has him hitting just .218/.332/.483. Still, a win’s a win for the Snakes, who hadn’t won back-to-back games on interim skipper Kirk Gibson‘s watch before the sweep; they’re 6-10 since he took over.


O, Mama, Can This Really Be the End? Ten days after throwing a one-hit shutout against the Pirates, Roy Oswalt is knocked out of the box by a bruised ankle. He’s expected to make his next start, but the question is whether it will come with the Astros given the team’s reported trade talks with the Phillies. Oswalt’s just 6-11 this year, one win shy of tying Joe Niekro for the franchise record of 144. Nonetheless, he’s got a 3.12 ERA and 8.5 K/9, the latter his best mark since his 2001 rookie campaign, and his .587 Support-Neutral Winning Percentage ranks 11th in the league.


Vote for Pedro: Rookie Pedro Alvarez bops two homers in the first two innings of a win against the Brewers, the first of which is a grand slam amid a nine-run inning. He adds another pair in another rout of the Brewers the next day and is now hitting .339/.406/.742 thus far in July. Also feasting on Brewers is Neil Walker, who goes 5-for-5 in the first of those two games; he’s got 14 hits and four doubles in his last five games and is hitting .314/.346/.462 for the year.

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Thursday.

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An inning later, Bobby Valentine ALSO mistook "expletives" for "superlatives." There was no sign of a knowing chuckle to indicate he was ribbing Orel. I don't think I've ever heard a broadcast where the announcers even wanted to say the word "superlatives" twice, let alone mangled it.
Okay, I feel better. Someone else noticed.
Regarding the Josh Johnson streak of consecutive starts with fewer than 3 ER allowed -- any thoughts why 8 of the top 17 streaks on that list going back to 1920 have happened in the past 2 years?
Excellent question, though it's actually eight of the top 25 over the past three seasons - the ties are listed in reverse chronological order.

We shouldn't be surprised that the list is skewed towards recent times given that there are twice as many games as there were from 1920-1960. But with just 12 of the top 101 results (one nine-game streak, Dolph Luque, spills over onto the second page) shown as coming from that era (none between Hippo Vaughn in 1920 and Earl Whitehill in 1933), I have to wonder about the completeness of the results.

Another possible explanation is the decrease in the number of innings thrown by starters in general; fewer innings means fewer raw run totals above 2, in this instance. Even so, only two pitchers of the eight since 2008 fall below the median innings total of this group (73.2), one of them just a third of an inning shy.

So I'm left scratching my head beyond suggesting that this is one more data point telling us we're in some kind of golden age for top-end pitching talent.
Oh, and it's all runs, not just earned runs
Score another sub-2 run start for Johnson today, 13 in a row, tying Ubaldo Jimenez, Greg Maddux, Johan Santana, Dwight Gooden and Tom Seaver.

Some of those dudes could pitch.
I, too, am running out of expletives when I look atop the NL West standings and, shaking my head in disbelief, am now coming to grips with the idea that it will be the Padres and the Giants battling it out for one, if not two, playoff spots. The Rockies are so Jekyll/Hyde, it's difficult to watch at times. I know that injuries have been a problem, but I fear that the whole team is just thinking that once Tulo comes back next week, everything will be all right. I love the guy,and look forward to seeing him play again, but I cannot imagine that he'll have much offensive impact for quite a while. They can't keep digging themselves out of big holes every season. Can't, just once, they be the hunted instead of the hunter?
Because it just seems like the Padres are going to keep having 'that kind of year'. It defines all logic, but there you have it. The Giants also seem pretty good, although the Freak's situation won't help them much. I'm still not very convinced that anybody in the NL is really all that good. I look at Atlanta and say...meh. Reds, the same. Cards...who is good enough to win this pennant? The Padres? Good god.
It actually 'defies' all logic...who 'defines' logic? Who will police the police? The Coast Guard?
+1 * 2 for entertaining comments.

In my mind, the Rockies have the division's best collection of talent and should win out. They'll be better off with Tulo back, but they do need to solve their first base situation if Helton - a candidate for the Replacement Level Killers - doesn't at least return to last year's level of production.

And I continue to be impressed by the Reds' young talent - they've gotten some outstanding work from their young pitchers, in particular. They need Rolen back sooner rather than later, and they need Dusty to stop his counterproductive lineup management.