You spend hours, days, months doing analysis. You do your best to take emotion out of it. Trust your projections. Take the best value.
Sounds easy, doesn’t it?
Sure, but what if the FOMO comes for you?
The Fear of Missing Out is real. Some are able to block it out. Others are helpless against its powers.
No one is going to induce more FOMO this draft season than Elly De La Cruz.
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
NFBC ADP since 2/1: 25.67
De La Cruz’s major-league debut last June was one of the most anticipated in recent memory. He was electrifying right out of the gate, too, reaching base three times in his first game, homering in his second and stealing six bases (without being caught) in his first 10 contests. He hit for the cycle in game No. 15. In 21 games in June, De La Cruz slashed .307/.358/.523 with three dingers, 12 RBI, nine stolen bases and 21 runs scored. He batted cleanup in each of those tilts. The Reds rode a 12-game winning streak at one point during the month.
Things didn’t go so well from then on.
EDLC slashed just .213/.284/.377 in 77 games the rest of the way and struck out at a 34.6 percent clip. From September 12 on he batted higher than seventh just once. He was on the bench three times during that stretch, with two of them coming when a lefty was on the mound. The switch-hitting De La Cruz finished with a dreadful .495 OPS and 40.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching.
De La Cruz’s batted-ball data was good but not otherworldly. Okay, the 119.2 mph max exit velocity was otherworldly, but his average exit velocity was in the 79th percentile, his hard-hit rate was in the 75th percentile and his barrel rate was in the 51st percentile. De La Cruz also had trouble lofting the ball, pounding it into the ground at a 54.1% clip.
Working in De La Cruz’s favor (aside from, you know, being arguably the best athlete in the game) is that he showed he could still be a pretty decent volume producer even when he was struggling. During the aforementioned 77-game span when he had just a .661 OPS, he still slugged 10 home runs, drove in 32 runs, scored 46 runs and stole 26 bases. That’s a 162-game pace of 21 homers, 67 RBI, 97 runs and 55 stolen bases.
Of course, the real game is different than the fantasy game, and it remains to be seen whether the Reds would put up with an extended stretch of struggles like EDLC had last year. If they get impatient, they have other options.
While De La Cruz played plenty of third base last season, the plan, it seems, is to hand him the shortstop job and hope he runs with it. That may very well happen. Second baseman Matt McLain can also play shortstop, though. Former starting second baseman and current utility player Jonathan India could return to the keystone. Spencer Steer appears set to see most of his action in left field, but he’s also capable of handling second base. Noelvi Marte can also play shortstop, if needed.
To De La Cruz’s credit, it appears he is putting in the work over the offseason to try to improve. Reds hitting coach Joel McKeithan traveled to De La Cruz’s native Dominican Republic over the winter to work with the 22-year-old on his swing.
“We’ve been doing a lot of changes in the Dominican,” De La Cruz said via translator Jorge Merlos on MLB.com. “Sometimes, you realize that you need to do some changes and you try to fix those. We have this new style that we’re working with, and we’re going to try it out in Spring Training and see how well it works.”
One of the changes the two implemented was cutting back on De La Cruz’s leg kick both from the left and right side of the plate. McKeithan also had ELDC letting the ball travel as far as possible before committing to his swing. The wunderkind seems happy with how things went.
“The best thing he’s been teaching me is to just stay back and wait for the ball as long as possible. We’ve been working really well,” De La Cruz said.
Also working with De La Cruz this offseason was friend Juan Soto, who attended the same baseball academy in the Dominican Republic. Per De La Cruz, he and Soto “were working on was just hitting off the tee and hitting to the opposite way.” Hey, it’s not a bad guy to get tips from.
The Reds have an embarrassment of riches in the infield to choose from, and after finishing over .500 in 2023, they’ve been one of the bigger free-agent spenders this offseason. Cincinnati has eyes on a playoff spot in 2024, and they play in a National League Central division that’s wide open. How long with De La Cruz’s leash be?
De La Cruz has proved that his fantasy floor is quite high even when things aren’t going particularly well. The guy from July-September last season certainly wouldn’t be worthy of a second-round pick, but he wouldn’t kill you. Again, the only real fear here is that he’s bad enough that the Reds decide he needs a reset at Triple-A Louisville. I don’t think that’s likely to happen, but it’s possible.
In NFBC drafts that have taken place since the beginning of February, EDLC is going just behind Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso and just ahead of Corey Seager, Zack Wheeler and Marcus Semien, among others. I don’t think he belongs in that company yet, so if that’s where De La Cruz winds up getting drafted in my league, it won’t be by me.
The thing is, there seems to be a mini-groundswell of people picking De La Cruz as a bust or, at the very least, consider him to be overrated. I’ve been in that group myself. The overwhelming majority of NFBC drafters clearly don’t belong to this club or his ADP wouldn’t be so high. His ADP has dropped a tick as more drafts have taken place, but only by a couple spots.
But what if you find yourself in a draft room with a bunch of De La Cruz haters? At some point, it becomes an opportunity. At some point, I’m going to click Elly’s name even if my projections say I should be clicking someone else’s.
See, I told you FOMO is real.
Thank you for reading
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