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KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart


Head Trainer:
Nick Swartz

Player Days Lost:
847

Total Dollars Lost:
$5.1 million

Injury Cost:
$11.8 million


Trend:
Positive. In an “other than that, how was the play” kind of way, the Royals had an average season after two previous years during which they had lost over a quarter of their payroll to the DL. They did it by playing with a short roster more often than they had in the past to avoid making DL moves, but it’s unclear whether it was a matter of some good luck and a bit of management by Trey Hillman, or if they had made real changes in the way they handle injuries. The potluck look to last year’s injury report shows no real trend; no one position, and no time- or injury-related patterns. Charlie Eppes says “there’s no such thing as too random,” but I like to find reasons for what I see. In the past, there has been great deal of discussion about Swartz and his staff as being too standoffish, especially to young players who felt that they couldn’t be proactive with their concerns. That’s a major issue for any staff, especially one that’s shown poor results. Anyone can be lucky for one year, but this season will reveal whether or not the Royals have a good medical staff, or if they’re going to be satisfied with being merely average.


The Shape of the Season:

graph

The Big Question: Rany Jazayerli asks: “The Royals are serious about the Mark Teahen-to-second base experiment. From a health standpoint, how risky is it for an established major leaguer to learn a new position-particularly second base-on the fly?”

Even assuming that Teahen has the basic physical skills to play second base, there is still a risk in shifting to any new position. While there’s no definitive reason, it’s assumed that this risk is a result of the learning curve. In the outfield, it’s learning the walls and where the warning track is, and it’s exacerbated by things like the quirky bullpens of Wrigley or odd wall angles. Second base is further up on the injury curve, which is nearly the same as the defensive spectrum, so Teahen not only has the switch risk, but he also has different baseline risk. If Teahen can learn the basics of the position and he’s lucky enough to avoid being hurt for the first few months, it’s certainly worth a shot if it makes him more valuable. It’s a positive that a non-contending team like the Royals are willing to take this kind of educated, calculated risk to try to make their team better.


Fantasy Tip:
Some fantasy managers avoid picking pitchers from bad teams, knowing that the ace of the Royals is going to have a harder time matching the win totals from someone on the back end of the Yankees rotation. Then again, we’ll occasionally get a Cliff Lee season, or, more predictably, a Gil Meche ’07-’08 run of consistency. This type of pitcher won’t win you many championships, but they’re probably somewhat underrated. If you’d rather take on the risk of a Luke Hochevar or Zack Greinke, you may get more or less than you hope for. Given that the ADP and auction price points are divergent for these three pitchers in direct proportion to their consistency, it actually make more sense to go for Hochevar. I’d need charts and graphs to explain why, but it’s mostly about upside gain being maximized in proportion to possible loss. By the way, Joakim Soria is probably still undervalued as well.


RF Jose Guillen:
Red light The dude took out his ingrown toenail with tweezers. That’s hardcore, like a scene out of The Wrestler. It’s also stupid, and it tells us a few things. First, that Guillen is the type of guy that will take risks with his health, the kind that can lead to missed days. He’s tough enough that it ends up only being a day here or a day there, but as he ages, it will be tougher to avoid the DL. Secondly, and more important, there seems to be a lack of communication or trust between the players and the medical staff. Over and over, there are reports of injuries being hidden or downplayed, and then coming to light only when it’s past the stage where the injury could have been minimized. Players like Guillen don’t make things easy, but as I said in the “Trend” segment, this is a major issue that hasn’t been addressed by Dayton Moore’s front office.


2B Alberto Callaspo:
Yellow light OK, we know his DL stint wasn’t the typical stay on the 15-day, but I also can’t just take it out. Aside from that, he’s never played enough to establish his durability, though his injury history is very short. He’s more of an unknown than a defined risk.


3B Alex Gordon:
Yellow light Just before Gordon missed a month with a strained hip flexor, he complained of lower back soreness. While he rates only a yellow here, that soreness waves a big red flag. Back and upper leg injuries are often interrelated, to the point where the treatment for a sore back might entail stretching and stimulation of the hamstrings. As players seem to gain power when they mature, a loss of flexibility can often become an issue. Gordon is showing some early warning signs, ones that should have him walking gingerly to a stretching program.


C Miguel Olivo:
Yellow light He’s not young, he’s proven he can handle the majority of a team’s catching duties, and he has adequate backup. All that plus his talent make him the very definition of journeyman catcher. The downside for Royals fans is that he’s hardly as memorable as most of his comparables.


LF David DeJesus:
Yellow light DeJesus played the game more slowly over the last two years, running a bit less, bouncing off of fewer walls, and taking the occasional day off. It’s kept him healthier and more productive, and he now tends to wear down rather than breaking down.


SP Zack Greinke:
Yellow light Let’s face it-Greinke is just weird. Not him per se, but trying to understand him from an injury standpoint. As a stat line rather than as a pitcher, Greinke is a mess, but knowing that he’s never had serious arm problems, that his missed time really had nothing to do with baseball, and how good he has looked at times, even this low yellow seems a little high to me. I’m also no psychiatrist, but I don’t know how someone with social anxiety disorder dates this girl.


SP Luke Hochevar:
Yellow light Hochevar is almost as difficult to read as Greinke. The intracostal problem he had last year was never adequately explained, but sources tell me that it was cartilage, not muscle, which in a strange way is a positive. The most worrisome thing to me is that the tinkering with his delivery after the 2006 season never seemed to take, and he’s adjusting not just from start to start, but from inning to inning.


1B Mike Jacobs
Green light


SS Mike Aviles
Green light


CF Coco Crisp:
Green light There always seems to be something wrong with Crisp, but never enough to keep him out for long. It’s an odd profile; while it doesn’t see him as risky, it sees the risk that is there as being geared toward a major injury.


DH Billy Butler
Green light


SP Gil Meche:
Green light Remember when he was an injury case-study, part of the lost generation of Mariners pitchers? Yeah, neither does the system. It sees the recent pair of 200-inning seasons with a low under age-25 workload, and it thinks he’s a positive case-study. I keep thinking that all of that damage can’t just be gone. I don’t mean to sound negative here, but if Meche suddenly pulled up lame a few years down the line, it wouldn’t surprise me a bit.


SP Brian Bannister
Green light


SP Kyle Davies
Green light


CL Joakim Soria:
Green light Soria is at the very top of the green, almost a yellow. I don’t think that’s a bad thing, and I love watching this kid pitch and seeing his aggressive-but-consistent mechanics. It almost makes me wonder what he might do as a starter.


RP Kyle Farnsworth
Green light

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amacrae
2/26
I think there\'s a very good chance Meche will breakdown this season. He was one of only two players (Sabathia is the other one) who threw 3500+ pitches in \'08 and \'07. From the limited research I have (and admittedly the small sample it creates) throwing this many pitches two seasons in a row rarely works out well.
joelefkowitz
2/26
\"top of the green = almost a yellow\" (soria)? \"even this low yellow seems a little high to me\" (greinke)? your choice of color modifiers always confuses me.
wcarroll
2/26
Joe, I cant tell you why you don\'t grasp this, but it seems that people just don\'t get it. There\'s three bands: low is green, medium is yellow, high is red. There\'s an underlying number.

For example (and these aren\'t the real numbers), let\'s say it\'s pure thirds -- 0-33 is green, 34-66 is yellow, and 67-100 is red. A 32 is a \"high green\" and a 35 is a \"low yellow.\"

I\'m not sure why people have such a hard time grasping this one since Im consistent in how I describe it.
PBuEsq
2/26
I\'m colorblind, so I all I have to go by are the words. If you use different shades or hues of green, red, or yellow, it\'s completely lost on people like me.
llewdor
2/26
He doesn\'t use shades. All the greens are the same.

Only the descriptors differ.
Oleoay
2/26
Instead of green, yellow and red, just think of it as \"worries\", \"concerns\" and \"problems\". In other words, a low yellow would mean \"low concerns\" and a high green would be \"high worries\" while implying no real concerns.
eighteen
2/27
I think of it as \"profuse sweating,\" \"uncontrollable twitching,\" and \"whimpering in a dark corner.\"

Works great.
ElAngelo
2/26
Maybe people view it in reverse---that red is the norm and green is the outlier, so the meter is upside-down.
bishopscreed
2/26
Why not share the real numbers? Is hiding them necessary to keep the system proprietary, or do you think it just seems smoother this way? I have nothing against the color system, but I\'d appreciate it if we could get the actual numbers, additionally. However, I understand if you think that poses a risk of reverse-engineering.
wcarroll
3/02
Honestly, without the baseline numbers, you couldn\'t reverse engineer it well, but basically using bands allows the system error and the system IS error filled. If PECOTA misses on a batting average, he\'s going to be off by, what, 0.020 in a normal case? (If PECOTA says Jones is going to bat .300 and he bats .280, is that a hit or a miss?) For THR, it\'s never so clear because he is or isn\'t injured. One of the guys who helped me with it says it will work in large numbers, but that I won\'t have enough player seasons until about 20 full seasons (I have seven).
tosaboy
2/26
I think it\'s the idea that green is at the bottom. It\'s as if, when describing the College top 25, you talked about how \"high\" (bad) a ranking seems for the #23 team or how low (good) it seems for the #2 team. Of course, we use those terms to refer to positions on the list, not the underlying numbers.
wilk75
2/26
perfect analogy....green should be high, not low.
wcarroll
2/26
Have you seen a stoplight?
tosaboy
2/26
most certainly--your system metaphorically follows the stoplight. but what I\'m saying is that our normal use of \"high\" and \"low\" are in inverse order to how (perhaps) they \"should\" be. We speak of \"high\" rankings that are actually \"low\" numbers. So when you speak of high green, I think for many people, that references \"good\" rather than the \"bad\" (within the green range) that you intend. It\'s not that you\'re wrong--it\'s just that your usages conflict with other , engrained usages, especially amongst sports fans. Does it make any sense that #1 is a \"high\" ranking? Of course not. But the usage and the precedent exist--just as the traffic light does.
bsolow
2/26
Still, this is not a ranking in the same sense as Kevin Goldstein\'s prospect lists are rankings; Will doesn\'t release (to the best of my knowledge) a ranking of \"top 100 injury risks\". That would be hard to understand. I really can\'t see how someone can think of this similar to college top-25 rankings...he\'s talking about risk. High means more risk...it\'s as simple as possible.

And I\'m also color blind, so that really makes no difference.
wcarroll
2/26
Exactly. It\'s my failure to figure out how to explain it any more clearly that\'s the issue here.
antonsirius
2/27
The system is describing injury risk, not health. Higher = more risk. Seems perfectly normal to me.
hotstatrat
2/27
That\'s the key. The confusion comes from this being called \"Health Reports\", but Will\'s \"high\" and \"low\" are describing \"Risk\" not \"Health\". So, perhaps, these should be called \"Injury Risk Reports\".
bishopscreed
2/27
For what it\'s worth, Will, my intuition is the same as yours. I\'ll bet there are a lot of people who see it each way.
ChapelHeel66
2/26
I\'m not sure it matters the reason why \"people have such a hard time grasping\" the concept. (I\'m not one of the ones struggling with it, although I am confused why the THR reports are sometimes different than the THR spreadsheet).

Anyway, this is a premium service, and I think there should be concern when we see a system that tends to blame the users for not understanding it, rather putting some of the responsibility on the system. It is no doubt a combination of the two.

It seems to me the system is only as good as its usefulness to its end-user. If THR was a research project being used by BP solely to draw conclusions or serve as the basis for further research, that\'s one thing. And that is no doubt true, in part, for the THRs. But ultimately, BP subscribers pay for this kind of information. It has to be useful and understandable to the customers.

It\'s like a teacher saying \"I have a great lesson plan, I\'m really smart and I\'m a really good teacher. It\'s not my fault the students don\'t understand it. I keep explaining it over and over.\" Ultimately, what\'s the use of a system that others (particularly paying customers -- and bright ones) don\'t understand? Maybe it\'s good, but not intuitive to the people who didn\'t design the system.

Perhaps it\'s time for a revision to the output/reporting function of the system, or at least an acknowledgment that a revision is under consideration to accommodate the user\'s needs.
iillllii
2/26
It couldn\'t be more clear to me - just remember it\'s a scale of risk - red is high risk, green is low risk, yellow in between. So if someone is a low green, it\'s a player with low risk among that pool (green) of low risk players. If someone is a high yellow, it\'s high risk among that pool (yellow) of medium risk players.
baconjeff
2/26
Making fun of Zack Greinke for having social anxiety disorder? You\'re a real class act, Will Carroll!
wcarroll
2/26
Where did you see that I made fun of him? I most certainly did not.
mhmosher
2/27
I know Will didn\'t make fun of him, but even if someone did, I doubt Greinke would care. He\'s going to make more money than any of us combined over the next decade.
baconjeff
2/27
\"I\'m also no psychiatrist, but I don\'t know how someone with social anxiety disorder dates this girl.\"
what? so someone with social anxiety disorder doesn\'t deserve to be with a beautiful woman?
mhmosher
2/27
For all anyone here knows, Zach is just a great guy. We already know he has a lot of money. Him dating a hot girl is probably a no-brainer.
BrettG
2/27
Do your research. They met in high school and have been dating for 7 1/2 years. It is not because he has money that he has an attractive girlfriend.
eighteen
2/27
Knock it off with the hypersensitivity, sitzpinkler.
bishopscreed
2/26
If you make fun of somebody by pointing out that they date a supermodel, well, you\'re welcome to make fun of me anytime.
anthonyjoseph
2/26
Kind of disturbed about Gordon\'s back issue. Has anyone ever thought about the possibility that it is not playing that causes all of these back problems, but the actual sitting on the bench which is not ergonimically sound (don\'t know the spelling? People who sit in offices have special chairs so their backs don\'t get screwed up. Are MLB baseball benches designed to protect the curvature of the back? Anyone with a bad back will tell you how important it is to sit in a proper chair to avoid further damage or just chronic pain.
wcarroll
2/26
You know, I actually did a couple weeks back watching soccer, where the benches - actually dugouts in some stadiums - are very ergonomic Recaro chairs. That said, I can\'t think of any situation where a player has been injured by the bench or sitting on it. Maybe George Brett ...
FalcoT
2/28
Wasn\'t it Jered Weaver who ripped up his finger on a splinter?
anthonyjoseph
2/28
Actually, I wasn\'t referring to a momentary injury but rather the poor posture over the course of a substantial length of time that may take a toll on the health of a player\'s back. I know there is something to this because non-playing athletes have to deal with sore backs and a non-ergonomic chair exascerbates the problem and may lead to further damage. Make sense? I think this is a serious and over looked issue. Sitting on a bench for 162 games?
westy21
2/27
I\'ve also wanted to see Soria start.....oh well...
antonsirius
2/27
I can\'t believe you busted out a Numb3rs reference, Will. Yeesh.
Mariofan
3/12
Actually, the Charlie Eppes reference amused me, to the point where this is the first time I've ever commented on a BP article. Well played, WC, well played.