“We always think we’ll end up disagreeing more than we end up disagreeing.” That’s how we began the 2018 installment of this annual list after a ranking process that found us on the same page a vast majority of the time. Did we have minor quibbles with each other’s lists? Sure. Did we each win and lose a few arguments around player placement? Sure. Ben still liked fast middle infielders a little too much, and Bret’s hatred of pitchers was still pretty extreme. Death, taxes and what not. But in the end, we were about as aligned as you can ask two prospect rankers to be.
But 2019? Turns out 2019 is a different year. Compiling the top 40 names on this list wasn’t too bad, though we had some differences in order outside the top 15-or-so guys. But once we got past the top 40, well, it took a lot more discussion and negotiation than in years past. Maybe that’s a positive—the no. 1 thing we always worry about is amplifying instead of compensating for each other’s blind spots—or maybe it’s just indicative of a larger trend among minor leaguers right now: much of who you prefer comes down to personal preference.
Yes, there is a very clear elite tier of prospects and another two-dozen-or-so who most people would agree are strong fantasy assets. But after that it sure gets murky. Perhaps that’s because 32 players on this year’s version of the list were eligible for but unranked on last year’s edition. Another 13 on the 2019 rundown were not eligible for our list last year. For those math majors at home, that means nearly 50% of the names on the 2019 Dynasty 101 are newcomers, at least when it comes to us ranking them. And that left us lots and lots of room for discussion.
A few minor adjustments we made from last year: one, we finally took our own advice about catchers a bit more seriously. Only four are on this list, and two of them come at the very end. Second, we got a little more comfortable rolling the dice on “our guys”—in fact, there’s a meaty section around the 50s and 60s of players we just couldn’t come to a consensus on, so we took a “shoot your shot” approach before going back to a consensus ranking system. And finally, we eased up *slightly* on dinging pitchers in these rankings. There still aren’t that many—only 26 among our top-101, to be exact—but we became ever slightly more liberal in sprinkling the good-but-not great SP4 types into the back-half of this list.
There aren’t really any other themes this year. The minors are wide open, and whether you want to roll the dice on the next group of potential stars or play it safer with the crop of near-MLBers depends on your risk tolerance, your league size and your contention cycle. Remember those key points and use this list as a guide rather than a bible, and you should get some useful information out of it. We know we sure did.
~Our Annual Disclaimers~
As always, there are a few list-specific disclaimers to go over before we jump in. These rankings are for fantasy purposes only, and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s ability to stick in center or a catcher’s pop time. That being said, these factors matter indirectly as they affect a player’s ability to either stay in the lineup or maintain eligibility. Additionally, we factor in home parks and organizational strengths, just as when we are talking about a major-league player. We can’t pretend that these prospects operate in a vacuum, unaffected by park factors. Of course, there’s no guarantee that they will reach the majors with their current organization, so while it is reflected, it’s not a heavy ranking factor. Most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability, and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup.
Within the list below, you’ll find important information about each prospect, including their potential fantasy value (in dollars) at their peak and the risk factor associated with reaching their projected output. Also, you will find a fantasy overview, which summarizes how many categories each player will be useful in, along with any that carry impact. For this exercise, we defined “impact” has having the potential to be in the top 15-20 players in a given category. For instance, impact in home runs roughly equates to the potential to hit 30, impact in steals is 25, and impact for strikeouts is the potential to punch out 200. Then you’ll see a realistic ceiling and floor for each prospect, purely in terms of rotisserie value. The comments are brief because we’ve already written fantasy-specific comments on each of these players in the individual top-10 lists.
Previous Rank correlates to where repeat entrants placed on the 2018 Top 101. The “NR” key means the player was not ranked, while “N/A” means they were not eligible. Ages listed are as of 4/1/2019.
With the fine print out of the way, let’s dive right in. We hope you enjoy!
The Man With No Tier
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 3)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: Super Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, HR, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: Should’f Been Late 2018
Realistic Ceiling: Miguel Cabrera
Realistic Floor: “Only” a top-5 first baseman
Tier 1: Future Fantasy Cornerstones
2. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres (Age: 20, Previous Rank: 7)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in R, HR, RBI, SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2019
Realistic Ceiling: Not too far off from Manny Machado
Realistic Floor: More like Peak Didi Gregorius
3. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 2)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: Right now
Realistic Ceiling: When we first started comparing him to Starling Marte it was more of a compliment …
Realistic Floor: Faster Ender Inciarte
4. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 5)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, HR, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: Early 2019
Realistic Ceiling: J.D. Martinez with the prospect pedigree
Realistic Floor: A power-heavy OF2
5. Jordon Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels (Age: 19, Previous Rank: 33)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in R, HR, RBI, SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020
Realistic Ceiling: 90% of Mookie Betts
Realistic Floor: Something like Matt Kemp’s career
Tier 2: Prospects You Want to Take Home to Mom
6. Keston Hiura, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 17)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2019
Realistic Ceiling: A less powerful Robinson Cano
Realistic Floor: Peak Daniel Murphy without the speed
7. Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 10)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: Early 2019
Realistic Ceiling: 110% of Andrew Benintendi
Realistic Floor: 90% of Andrew Benintendi
8. Nick Senzel, 3B/OF, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 8)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: Early 2019
Realistic Ceiling: What if Anthony Rendon was always healthy?
Realistic Floor: What if Anthony Rendon was often hurt *and* an outfielder?
9. Taylor Trammell, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 28)
Potential Earnings: $30-35
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in R, SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020
Realistic Ceiling: Once again we tried to get more creative than Carl Crawford, but …
Realistic Floor: Tim Anderson in the outfield
10. Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (Age: 18, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $35+
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, HR, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2021
Realistic Ceiling: 1-1 on this list a year from now
Realistic Floor: Mid-50s on this list a year from now
11. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins (Age: 19, Previous Rank: 22)
Potential Earnings: $30-35
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI, SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2021
Realistic Ceiling: The best version of Jean Segura
Realistic Floor: A toolsy Twins first-rounder would never fail to meet expectations!
12. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 15)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2019
Realistic Ceiling: We’ll stick with Prime Ian Kinsler
Realistic Floor: Brian Dozier with ~20 more points of batting average
13. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies (Age: 22, Previous Rank: 4)
Potential Earnings: $30-35
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI, HR
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2019
Realistic Ceiling: A top-7 shortstop for the next decade
Realistic Floor: A top-15 second baseman for the next five years
14. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins (Age: 21, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, HR, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020
Realistic Ceiling: A borderline OF1 who marries his hit tool with his power
Realistic Floor: An OF3 who only figures out how to do one or the other
15. Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 70)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in R, HR, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: As soon as Josh Donaldson hits the DL
Realistic Ceiling: 40 homers and a tolerable average
Realistic Floor: 25-plus homers but while hitting .240
Tier 3: Well Worth the Gamble
16. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 23)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Fantasy Impact ETA: Mid 2019
Realistic Ceiling: An actual, in-the-flesh SP1
Realistic Floor: Even the best pitching prospects are more likely to be SP3s than SP1s
17. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets (Age: 24, Previous Rank: NR)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Three-category contributor; Impact potential in R, HR, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: Early 2019
Realistic Ceiling: Bret will never shut up about it
Realistic Floor: Ummmm Bret would never overrate a Mets first baseman, no siree
18. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Oakland Athletics (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 92)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Fantasy Impact ETA: Early 2019
Realistic Ceiling: The Good (and healthy) James Paxton
Realistic Floor: Eduardo Rodriguez
19. Francisco Mejia, C/OF, San Diego Padres (Age: 23, Previous Rank: 13)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low-ish
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor
Fantasy Impact ETA: Now
Realistic Ceiling: A bona fide top-5 catcher for quite some time
Realistic Floor: An OF4 who has you cursing front offices
20. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 11)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in W, K, ERA, WHIP
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2017
Realistic Ceiling: A tried and true fantasy SP1
Realistic Floor: Dellin Betances (but with some saves)
21. Carter Kieboom, SS, Washington Nationals (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 47)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: Late 2019
Realistic Ceiling: A Vegas-quality Corey Seager impersonation
Realistic Floor: An A.C.-quality Kyle Seager impersonation
22. Nick Madrigal, 2B/SS, Chicago White Sox (Age: 22, Previous Rank: N/A)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: Medium
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in AVG, R, SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020
Realistic Ceiling: Dustin Pedroia’s career, plus a few more steals
Realistic Floor: A .290 hitter with 25 steals and little else
23. Garrett Hampson, 2B/SS, Colorado Rockies (Age: 24, Previous Rank: 84)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in R, SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: As soon as the Rockies capitulate
Realistic Ceiling: Not too many players steal 30 bags and hit .300 these days
Realistic Floor: Ryan Theriot in Coors, basically
Tier 4: Mostly Familiar Faces
24. Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 19)
Potential Earnings: $25-30
Risk Factor: High
Fantasy Overview: Five-category contributor; Impact potential in SB
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2021
Realistic Ceiling: A five-category OF2
Realistic Floor: Another reason to throw shade on future Cuban prospects
25. Yordan Alvarez, OF/1B, Houston Astros (Age: 21, Previous Rank: 68)
Potential Earnings: $20-25
Risk Factor: Low
Fantasy Overview: Four-category contributor; Impact potential in R, HR, RBI
Fantasy Impact ETA: 2020
Realistic Ceiling: 2017 Josh Bell
Realistic Floor: 2018 Josh Bell
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