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Below is my third bid limit update. There aren’t too many changes this week. Once again, any changes of two dollars in either direction will be listed below for players with significant value. Mixed league bids will reflect the same valuation change unless otherwise noted.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Non-LABR Adjustments

Jason Kipnis $18 (previous $24)
It is possible I am overreacting to Kipnis’ injury, but given the talent at the top at second base in the American League I would rather move Kipnis down one or two dollars “too many” than pay $20-22 and find myself in a situation where he misses half the season.

Carlos Carrasco $19 (previous $22)
The news on Carrasco’s elbow was positive (the MRI came back clean). On the other hand, it’s an elbow issue. If he pitches a healthy outing, I’ll bump him most of the way back up in the next update.

David Price $10 (previous $14).
Another week has passed and the information about Price’s recovery is even more nebulous than it was on March 10. He did some light throwing today, but it doesn’t sound like Price is close to ramping it up and going full speed. Even if everything turns out to be fine, the Red Sox are likely to be super cautious given their pitching depth.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Jacob deGrom $19
(previous $17)
His health and velocity this spring are both turning me back into a believer.

Ian Desmond $19 (previous $28)
Mark Reynolds $7 (previous $2)
This adjustment builds in about a month of missed time during the regular season for Desmond but also considers the uncertainty many hitters have recovering their swing and power after a hand injury.

Jose Reyes $16 (previous $14)
Prorate Reyes’ 2016 to 120 games and he’s a $20 player in NL-only 5×5. The market is somewhat underestimating him, but even if Reyes isn’t quite a full timer, there is a good deal of value left.

Zack Greinke $15 (previous $18)
Greinke’s diminished velocity combined with his subpar 2016 makes me wary. This is still a decent price, but I don’t want to creep toward $20 with him.

Matt Wieters $11 (previous $8)
With Derek Norris out of the picture, it is clear that Wieters will get almost all the at bats behind the dish in DC.

Jung-Ho Kang $8 (previous $12) (removed from mixed)
David Freese $6 (previous $4)
Kang might have difficulty getting a visa to come play baseball in the United States. I will leave the legal opinions on this matter to the legal experts, but this is a situation I don’t want any part of in a redraft league.

Tom Murphy $6 (previous $9)
Broken forearm.

Anthony DeSclafani $5 (previous $9) (mixed -$3)
DeSclafani was unlikely to bring back high end numbers, but now concerns about his elbow push him down nearly 50 percent in mixed and down to a one-dollar flier in deep mixed leagues. In standard mixed, feel free to cross him off your sheet entirely.



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pfenn1tw
3/17
Question for the crowd: In a AL only keeper league I've got Correa ($18 for 3 years; Valued at $30) and was offered Herrera($10 for two years, valued at $14) and Springer ($18 for two years, valued at $26). Both sides offer $12 in savings. Would you take depth or "star" power? I'm struggling with this one.
batts40
3/17
I'd keep CC, but it's close.
maxcat21
3/17
agree with batts40
bigcolwell
3/17
Personally I would stick with Correa you have possibly the best ss for the forseable future at a premium position. Then again it's deep so depends if you need OF help and have something else for ss maybe good deal for you. I would rather be looking for OF help on the wire then ss.
batts40
3/17
This is my "homework" weekend for getting my values done for my 4/1 draft. I'm glad to see these today. Essential as always, Mike.
Deadheadbrewer
3/17
Good list. No adjustment on the Ottavino/Holland situation? Word on the street is that Holland is the main man. Are you buying that?
MikeGianella
3/17
I'm reluctant to do so but if they keep talking about it I'll flip them in the next update
NufCed
3/17
Question on Andrelton Simmons $6 bid. Great defense generates at bats daily. Possible double digit steals and upside BA. In 4x4 12 team redraft AL only, would you see $12-$13 value?
MikeGianella
3/17
He could earn it, especially in 4x4. I generally don't like paying par on guys like Simmons as a rule
pfenn1tw
3/17
I have him for $10 in a keeper league with inflation and I am not even considering him as 1 of 15 keepers. In 2014-15 he had 9 combined steals and like a combined .260 average with no pop. Hard pass for me at $12 to $13 in a redraft. The $6 bid is just right for me due to his modest counting stats. There is NO upside. I'd rather take a guy like Tilson who will start on the DL but should outperform Simmons at half the cost (positions are different, I get that, but spend more on a better SS, less on OF.)
sintner
3/17
Can you walk through what led to the incredible disparity in values between your limits and PFM for (1) O Herrera 17 vs 5 and (2) D Duffy 13 vs 2.4? Facing a keeper deadline tonight and feeling under-prepared and confused...
MikeGianella
3/17
They'rre the kind of players were PECOTA/PFM is weighting the numbers from the last three years and projecting regression. I see room for growth in both.
sintner
3/17
Thanks.
NufCed
3/17
Mike, Your response on Simmons was very helpful. This is exactly the kind of guy (Mallex Smith is another) who I would get burned on in the past. I would use the HQ values, run the CDG, glance at CBS and LABR bids and dismiss them out of hand. I would easily conclude, "They just don't get it." I would roster these guys happily against my foolish competitors. Get burned. Rinse, repeat. Using your bids, rationale and other info from this site and the Alex Patton site has been a real eye opener. I know Simmons and Smith are different players for different reasons but now I have a better feel for how much to pay and why. Thanks for your time and sharing your thought processes.
lemurine
3/18
Mike, Any idea how a team auto-drafting in the auction effects the prices overall?
MikeGianella
3/18
For auctions specifically?
lemurine
3/20
Yes, just for auctions. In our only today the team on auto only spent about half of their available dollars, so I think that gives me some feedback, though I welcome your thoughts, too.
MikeGianella
3/22
It would obviously depend on the valuation system. ESPN and CBS's autodrsfters tend to bid aggressively, so a team on auto would fill out its roster rather quickly. But I've seen the phenomenon you're talking about as well
BStephen
3/18
12 team NL only. Does it make sense to burn roster spots for $1/$2 guys that are below value like A reed, Straily, deitrich, a hill, ether, knebel ?
MikeGianella
3/22
Yes in a league that deep.
NufCed
3/18
Mike, I have Keuchel at the same bid. Do you agree with the underlying PECOTA projection? Do you feel his 2016 problems were due to hidden injuries or something else?
MikeGianella
3/22
Seems a little optimistic but it's not out of line I thought his command was a little off in the games I watched him pitch. Keuchel is a pitcher who doesn't have the margin for error that others with more velocity do. If the command is back, he could be a solid bargain. But that's an if for me
pauls121
3/19
Mike: A couple of players where your low values confuse me. Any elaboration would be helpful. Adam Duvall, Josh Bell, Cory Dickerson, Tommy Joseph. And your high values, I assume you simply see better upside: Cameron Rupp, Asdrubal Cabrera, Aaron Altherr (will he get a job?), Thanks. PRS
MikeGianella
3/22
I'm skeptical Duvall holds up for a full season. The arrow was pointing down on him in the second half, particularly in home runs Bell is going to be a solid real life player who I don't see having a big fantasy impact in any counting category I'm not sure if you think I'm too high or too low on Dickerson/Joseph. I got Dickerson for $9 in LABR but think he'll be worth much more than that. My Joseph bid is very close to what he cost in CBS and LABR Rupp should start. He's boring but has power behind the dish. Asdrubal made a similar adjustment to the one Daniel Murphy made in 2015. He hit 306/358/566 from July 1 on and I believe this was due to tangible improvements I might move Altherr up a couple bucks in the next update. He's having a good spring. My concern is that with Saunders ahead of him and Williams/Quinn behind him the window is very small
t0mmyo
3/19
Just a heads up - Howie Kendrick listed as a $1 pitcher.
t0mmyo
3/21
Domingo Santana listed as $4 in Mixed/All, but not on OF list. Possibly because he has LF next to position. Not intending to pick nits, just trying to help.
MikeGianella
3/22
No, this helps. Will fix shortly
t0mmyo
3/24
No problem, Mike. Happy to help. I have my auction this weekend and super prepared after listening to the FFF podcast. Thanks for all your hard work.
MikeGianella
3/22
Thanks
Carosella
3/20
Can't seem to locate K.Morales or V. Martinez
Carosella
3/20
Never mind. Found them under hitters.
lemurine
3/23
Hi Mike, I am curious how you deal with expected money left on the table after the auction in calculating values of players before the auction in a keeper league. That is, with standard $3120 12 team budget do you just figure the totals adding up to the full $3120 and ignore the fact that you know there will be about $50 left on the table? Thanks a lot.

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