keyboard_arrow_uptop

Below is the second update of my fantasy bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues for auction formats. Listed below are the players whose prices have been shifted by two dollars or more in either direction.

Most of this edition’s updates are based on what happened in the LABR NL and AL auctions this past weekend in Phoenix, Arizona. I have been asked in the past how the expert auctions influence my prices. That’s a good question that also gives me an opportunity to explain how I construct my bids.

My first pass at my bid limits takes place in January. I don’t make many changes unless there is a trade, free agent signing, or injury that influences the value of one or more players. The CBS auctions in February are the first opportunity I have to see my bids in action, but the spending in these two auctions tends to be liberal. On the other hand, LABR is the first expert auction where the prices tend to be a rational and realistic barometer of what the market in most of the home leagues I have participated in will look like.

If I see that the price for a player is significantly higher or lower in both CBS and LABR than my bid is, I consider if perhaps I am being too bearish or bullish on that player. There are also marketplace considerations as well. I did not purchase a player over $23 in AL LABR. While I do like my team, I pushed the bids up on many of the Top 10 players in the American League for this update. While I do believe that my bids are fundamentally sound, I do want to give my readers some wiggle room in their auctions to bid more liberally on the top hitters.

What I try to avoid is shifting prices up or down simply because “that’s what the experts paid.” These bids are a product of my work and recommendations, not merely a regurgitation of what the expert market believes. My favorite bids are the ones that are three dollars lower or higher than what the experts in LABR paid. These are my boldest calls in either direction. Whether you agree or disagree, I’m taking a stand, and that’s more important than simply trying to “correct” my bids because of the market.

The adjustments below are for AL, NL, and mixed leagues in cases of significant players whose value moved up or down by two dollars or more in either direction. The mixed bid has moved up or down the same amount except where otherwise indicated.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Max Scherzer $32 (previous $36). Mixed: (-$2)
The four-dollar drop is due to a combination of worry about Scherzer’s injury and a rational market adjustment. Even before he was hurt, my CBS winning bid was four dollars fewer than my $36 bid limit. I think Scherzer will be fine (I left him above Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard, which the expert bidders in LABR did not) but I no longer want to pay $35 for him.

David Dahl $15 (previous $20)
The bidders in LABR weren’t concerned about Dahl at all, paying him my pre-LABR update price of $20. I wish I could feel as sanguine, but with Dahl likely to start the season on the DL it gives the Rockies a built-in excuse to send him to the minors for a couple of months if they want to attempt and build up Gerardo Parra’s trade value. Parra gets bumped up two dollars, and I would watch Raimel Tapia in NL-only very closely.

Raisel Iglesias $10 (previous $8)
I had some reservations about Iglesias because Drew Storen is on the team, but the Storen-for-closer campaign has not picked up momentum. Iglesias moves up two dollars while Storen gets pushed from six dollars to two dollars in this update.

CBS/LABR Adjustments
Trea Turner $31 (previous $29)
Brandon Belt $17 (previous $15)
Javier Baez $15 (previous $13)
Josh Bell $12 (previous $10)
Travis Shaw $12 (previous $9)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Non-LABR Adjustments

David Price $14 (previous $25).
Fourteen dollars is what Larry Schechter paid for Price in LABR. Nearly every fantasy analyst I have talked to about Price has expressed anything from moderate concern to extreme alarm for Price’s health This bid could come down another two or three dollars in my next update. It is extremely doubtful it will bounce back up.

David Robertson $14 (previous $16)
The rumor mill has been quiet, but I decided to move Robertson’s price down because he might be traded and become another team’s set-up. Nate Jones moves up two dollars.

Daniel Norris $11 (previous $9)
I’m a fan of Norris’ and decided to let my bid express my preference. This is partially tied to buyer’s remorse in LABR, where I let him go for eight dollars. I’d rather have Norris at that price than Dylan Bundy, who I purchased on Saturday.

Ryan Madson $9 (previous $11)
Good news! The pain that Madson was feeling in his arm had to do with a new pitch! He stopped throwing that pitch and now he is fine! Yeah, that’s’ not how this works. Pain in the arm is a bad thing no matter how you spin it. I haven’t moved any of the other Athletics’ relievers up, but the more I think about this one the more inclined I am to push Madson down again in the next update.

Brett Lawrie, adios (previous $11)
Lawrie was released by the White Sox. He was purchased for two dollars in LABR, but I wouldn’t even bother with him as a reserve pick unless it is clear he is going to sign with an American League team. Tyler Saladino moves from one dollar to six while Yolmer Sanchez moves from one dollar to two. Yoan Moncada’s bid remains unchanged, as I do not believe this changes his timetable for 2017.

LABR Adjustments
Mookie Betts $38 (previous $36)
Carlos Correa $30 (previous $28)
Yu Darvish $25 (previous $23)
Elvis Andrus $20 (previous $18)
Max Kepler $15 (previous $13)
Devon Travis $14 (previous $12)
Corey Dickerson $13 (previous $15)
Evan Gattis $13 (previous $11)
Michael Brantley $13 (previous $15)



You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
jacquehamed
3/10
Do you have any bids for Kendall Graveman and Francicso Liriano? I noticed they weren't listed in the AL-Only bids. Thank you again Mike for your tireless work to help us all. It is greatly appreciated each year.
MikeGianella
3/11
They have been added to the form.
MikeGianella
3/10
Liriano is $8 and I think Graveman is $1. I'll check when I get home. I'm 99 percent sure about Liriano
woodruff11
3/10
Hyun-jin Ryu is listed as Howie Kendrick in the chart above
edgecrusher
3/10
I think you have Danny Duffy in there twice.
MikeGianella
3/10
That's a form error. I'll send to programming
dan22ke9
3/10
Baez of Cubs? I don't see him listed. Value.?
dan22ke9
3/10
Oops... just located Baez, my bad...
gelezinas
3/10
Brantley went for $13 in LABR? After missing a whole year? And he'll probably miss a good chunk of this year too. This is like hoping Grady Sizemore would come back and shine again. If I was in that AL only league, I wouldn't pay more than $6 (assuming I'd even draft him at all). I think that Matt Joyce is a steal at $8. I bet he beats PECOTAs projections for him. According to Jeff Sullivan at FG, he's changed his swing since 2015 and he was one of the leaders in exit velocity in batted balls in the air.
MikeGianella
3/11
Brantley went for $7. My adjustment is based on his drop in price in LABR. Based on your comment and similar feedback I've heard, I'll probably drop him again in the next update.
sintner
3/10
What kind of P/H split are you using? And how top weighted for mixed?
MikeGianella
3/11
It s about 69/31. The mixed bids are loosely modeled on the Tout Wars mixed auction prices for the last three years.
jonathanaustin
3/11
Can you have the link on the main Fantasy Resource page updated for your values - it still links to your values from 2016. Was a bit confused at first on some of the valuations, before I realized the issue.
MikeGianella
3/13
Thanks for the heads up. Reaching out now.
davinhbrown
3/11
Mike, If rotation spots are assured, how much value do you see changing for LA, SD, Mil? Guys like Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Wood - could be double-digit value in NL if knew they would hit 150 IP. Mil and SD rotation options don't seem to have the same upside, but in NL only, anyone with a spot has some value.
LynchMob
3/12
I disagree that "anyone with a spot has some value". I do agree that "anyone who gets 150 IP has some value". But not everyone in a rotation on Opening Day will get 150 IPs ... Especially the dudes on the Padres ... they will be easy-come-easy-go ...
MikeGianella
3/13
Depends on the pitcher, but I'd be more likely to move up perpetually injured arms like McCarthy and Ryu if you could "guarantee" 150 innings.
jgatti
3/15
Joey Bats?
lemurine
3/15
yeah, Joey Bats has gone away.....
MikeGianella
3/16
Weird, but he's back now.
Robotey
3/15
Are these projections for OBP leagues, or BA only?
MikeGianella
3/16
BA
osubeava
3/17
How might you value Schwarbs if he were catcher eligible?