In case you missed the hitters or part one of yesterday’s starting pitchers, let’s get you caught up before going any further:
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Catcher
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: First Base
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Second Base
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Third Base
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Shortstop
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders, Part One
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders, Part Two
- Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Starting Pitchers, Part One
With that out of the way, it’s time to order the first next 110 starting pitchers. Yes, 110. If you’ve been following along or you’re familiar with this exercise from years past, you know that these rankings function best as something like a cross between keeper preferences and dynasty rankings for those whose window of contention is open in the immediate future. It’s important to state that these rankings are mine alone. They no doubt vary from the opinions of other writers on this site and that’s okay. Good, even. This wouldn’t be much fun if we all thought the same thing about every player and couldn’t learn from each other in the cases where we diverge.
Off we go:
The back half of the top 40 was brimming with high upside youngsters, so that seems like an appropriate place to begin the second segment of the rankings. Glasnow and Giolito are our 14th– and 10th-best prospects, respectively. I like Glasnow a touch more because of the league, home park, and strikeout upside, acknowledging that his overall value is limited by his present inability to command the ball. I’m expecting a bounce back from Giolito, under the assumption that Don Cooper will help him settle on consistent mechanics and rediscover some of the fastball velocity that went missing in 2016. Both of these guys should be in the majors for good early in 2017, if not on Opening Day. Urias pitched to a 3.39 ERA and struck out more than a batter per inning as a teenager. His ranking all the way down here is purely a function of volume. Urias threw 127 2/3 innings in 2016 and the Dodgers are expected to manipulate his usage again in 2017 in an effort to protect his arm. He belongs in the upper tiers on a per inning basis, but it could be 2019 before Urias is permitted to make a run at 200 frames.
46. Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers
Greinke’s ERA rose from 1.66 in 2015 to 4.37 in 2016, but his DRA actually shrank, dropping from 3.26 to 3.17. The real Greinke is somewhere in the middle, and that’s still a perfectly useful pitcher as long as the expectations are set correctly. Keuchel’s still on the right side of 30 and I think he has a few more years of mid-rotation value in him, shoulder injury notwithstanding. On skills alone, Hill has been the best non-Kershaw pitcher in baseball over the past two seasons. Trouble is he’s only thrown 139 1/3 innings in that span and will be 37 years old in 2017. Take what you can get and backfill with a depth piece. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher who is prone to giving up bombs, Odorizzi’s value is closely tied to the Trop and the guy who roams centerfield there. It looks like Odorizzi will stay in Tampa for now, but the Rays have plenty of upper minors depth at the ready. If you’re sitting on Odorizzi, a pre-emptive move might be in order. Pomeranz ran a 2.83 ERA as a Padre, then posted a 4.59 ERA in 13 games after the trade to Boston. Do with that what you will. Paxton’s fastball was one of 2016’s great revelations, registering an average velocity north of 97 mph. Almost as importantly, he took the ball 31 times and pitched 171 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors, his highest total since 2013.
50. Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Fernandez was the only qualified pitcher to top Ray’s 11.3 K/9 in 2016. Only nine pitchers posted a worse HR/FB rate. With the strikeouts as a foundation and what should be some correction to his long ball luck, Ray offers solid upside 50 names deep. Gray pitches for the Rockies. Yes, that’s scary, but he too can lean on a healthy whiff total to compensate for the ratio risk. Pineda is a DRA darling, finishing inside the top-20 in each of the past two seasons. The on-field results have diverged from the paper version pretty dramatically. Whether or not the gap closes depends on whether Pineda can do enough with his slider and changeup to discourage batters from sitting dead red.
53. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
57. Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants
61. Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates
Unless King Felix gets some velocity back, I’m not buying him as much more than a serviceable innings eater at this point. In other words, I think he’s basically Jeff Samardzija. Bummer. Eickhoff, DeScalfani, and Roark outperformed the advanced metrics substantially in 2016 and their rankings here probably reflect my bias against that type. Moore and Gray are 27-year-old name brands. Shoemaker and Nova are 30-year-olds who reinvented themselves in 2016, Shoemaker as a guy who throws more splitters than anyone in baseball and Nova as a guy who never walks anyone (thanks Ray Searage).
64. Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
65. Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros
67. Jose De Leon, Tampa Bay Rays
68. Jharel Cotton, Oakland Athletics
Some of my favorite prospects past and present in this group. I hope this is high enough to fulfill my contractual obligation on Gsellman, Norris was disgusting last September (38-to-8 K:BB in 28 1/3 innings), Walker might be 100 spots too high, Musgrove walked 26 in 147 1/3 innings across three levels in 2016, Bundy is finally on track and still just 24 years old, and De Leon and Cotton will look to overcome fastballs with no plane. I sure hope they can, because the changeups are super fun to watch.
69. Matt Harvey, New York Mets
70. Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
71. Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
74. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
75. Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
76. Drew Smyly, Seattle Mariners
77. Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds
78. Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
Cromulent veterans and lefties I’m lower on than everyone else.
81. Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
82. Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies
84. Matt Andriese, Tampa Bay Rays
Young enough to hold down jobs for a few years, lacking the skills to move up these rankings much.
87. Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
89. Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
90. Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies
91. Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
92. Dan Straily, Miami Marlins
93. Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals
94. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
95. Hisahi Iwakuma, Seattle Marienrs
96. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
97. Francisco Liriano, Toronto Blue Jays
Good heavens we’re not even to 100 yet.
98. Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers
99. Chris Devenski, Houston Astros
100. Luis Severino, New York Yankees
101. Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians
102. Mike Montgomery, Chicago Cubs
103. Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox
104. Matt Strahm, Kansas City Royals
105. Carson Fulmer, Chicago White Sox
106. Jeff Hoffman, Colorado Rockies
107. Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
108. Andrew Triggs, Oakland Athletics
109. Nathan Karns, Kansas City Royals
How many of these 12 will be starters three years from now? Hell, how many will be starters three months from now?
110. Francis Martes, Houston Astros
111. Cody Reed, Cincinnati Reds
112. Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves
113. David Paulino, Houston Astros
That Martes ranks here despite the fact that he is unlikely to make any impact in 2017 tells you how special I believe he’ll be when he does arrive in Houston. You can pick your seat on the Reed bandwagon right now. I get it. It’s not super encouraging when a guy gives up 12 home runs in 10 starts. On the other hand, he struck out 43 in 47 2/3 innings and cFIP liked him as a hair better than league average. Remember, these things are rarely linear. Pounce if there’s a panicky Reed owner in your league. Same goes for Newcomb. I’m frustrated that his command hasn’t taken a step forward too, and while the chances are slimming every year, reports still cite a delivery that should work. At the price, the payoff could be immense if it clicks.
114. Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks
115. Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
116. Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick a Diamondback, any Diamondback.
117. Brock Stewart, Los Angeles Dodgers
119. Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds
120. Chad Green, New York Yankees
121. Zack Wheeler, New York Mets
122. German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
123. Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
124. Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
Last chance to grab someone interesting before this get depressing…alright, let’s hold our noses and finish it off.
125. Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins
126. Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
127. Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins
128. Kendall Graveman, Oakland Athletics
129. Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers
130. Matt Boyd, Detroit Tigers
131. Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
132. Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers
133. Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates
134. Steven Wright, Boston Red Sox
135. Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers
136. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
137. Mike Leake, St. Louis Cardinals
138. Mike Fiers, Houston Astros
139. Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Angels
142. Drew Hutchison, Pittsburgh Pirates
143. Tyler Beede, San Francisco Giants
144. Yohander Mendez, Texas Rangers
145. Anthony Banda, Arizona Diamondbacks
146. Steven Brault, Pittsburgh Pirates
147. Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies
148. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers
149. Matt Wisler, Atlanta Braves
150. Bartolo Colon, Atlanta Braves