Platoons
Target: LHB's Ryan Howard 1B ($3500, +226 OPS and +.085 ISO vs. RHP) and Odubel Herrera 2B/OF ($3000, +61 OPS OPS and +.028 ISO vs. RHP) against RHP Bartolo Colon ($6800, +77 OPS and +.045 ISO career vs. LHB)
It's easy to forget the Phillies this season, given a thin roster that has been further depleted by trades and injuries, with the recent shelving of Maikel Franco essentially robbing the ballclub of any high-end players. The good news for DFS managers is that the Philly bats tend to be inexpensive and overlooked, thus lowering their ownership percentages, and players with low price tags often find themselves near the top of the Philadelphia lineup. Case in point, Herrera has been hitting in the three-hole since Franco went down two-and-half weeks ago, increasing his value due to the RBI opportunities and the increased odds of his getting an extra plate appearance. The rookie is hitting .295 this season with a .124 ISO, numbers that justify his $3000 price tag on their own merits, but the combination of his middle-order placement and his affinity for hitting right-handers creates a great value opportunity. Howard had a disaster season in 2014 and the appeared near for the 34-year old slugger, whose reputation has been sullied by a contract that he has failed to live up to, but he has experienced a bit of a resurgence this season to at least quiet the talks of his riding the pine. He has never been able to hit southpaws very well, but in his old age the platoon splits have become even more exaggerated, and this year Howard has an OPS that is a whopping 387 points higher versus right-handers than with a lefty on the mound.
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Steals
Target: Delino DeShields OF ($3600, 22-of-28 SB this season) and Elvis Andrus SS ($2900, 14-of-20 SB) against RHP Tyson Ross ($9700, opponents 34-of-45 SB this season)
Ross has given up more steals this season than any other point in his career, breaking last year's mark of 31 steals, and he still has a month to go before he can close the book on the 2015 campaign. Ross has been filling the bases with runners via the free pass, adding to the frustration when one of his walks ends up on second base via the steal. The steal-fest has been particularly egregious over his last four starts, during which opposing baserunners have gone eight-of-nine on steal attempts. Expect the trend to continue tonight against the Rangers, where Elvis Andrus has swiped three bags in the last four ballgames and Delino DeShields will take off against any pitcher-catcher battery at any time; I don't expect his modest four-for-seven pace over the last 16 games to be a deterrent for Delino Junior against Ross, and there's a good chance that he'll attempt a steal at the first opportunity.
Recency Bias
Target: RHB Edwin Encarnacion ($4900) against RHP Danny Salazar ($10800)
Last 25 games (25 starts): .409/.473/.882 with 11 homeruns and 11 doubles in 110 plate appearances
Encarnacion is in the midst of a 25-game hitting streak during which his OPS on the season has climbed 69 points, and he just seems to continue heating up. His three-homer game on Saturday and followup bomb on Sunday gave him seven homers in his last seven games, and he has been driving in runs like RBI were going out of style (which they sort of are), with 24 RBI combined over his last eight contests. Now with 30 homers and 91 RBI in 118 games on the season, Encarnacion is suddenly right on track with the past few years, as from 2012-2014 he had an average of 43 homers and 120 RBI per 162 games played. Danny Salazar presents an intimidating opponent, but Encarnacion's red-hot surge supersedes any opponent that he is facing, and Salazar's 20 homers allowed in 144.3 innings sets the stage for yet another longball by Edwin.
Price
Target: RHB Anthony Rendon 2B/3B ($3400) against RHP John Lackey ($8900)
Rendon had a very slow start to his season, as he didn't start until early June due to injury and was then halted again a few weeks later, putting him on the shelf for another month. Rendon has recently rediscovered his stroke (.419/.500/.645 over the last eight games with a pair of homers) and boasts a low price tag that fails to represent the magnitude of his skill set. He has been exceedingly cheap for weeks now, and while previously rostering Rendon was based on pure speculation that he would eventually break out of his slump, the young buck's recent performance suggests that he is back on track despite a price tag that has yet to catch up. This creates a value opportunity, and his positional flexibility means that a manager can still roster another bat at either second or third while keeping Rendon in the lineup. His breadth of skills is particularly useful in DFS, making Rendon an everyday play last season that is worth the same treatment now that his bat has awoken from its season-long slumber.
Avoid: RHP Danny Salazar ($10800) against the Toronto Blue Jays
Facing the Blue Jays is like playing at altitude for an opposing pitcher, particularly when one has to travel to the Rogers Centre. Salazar is a very strong pitcher that would normally make for a strong play, but he is not impervious to the stacked lineup of Toronto, a team that leads the majors with 5.52 runs scored per game and which has kicked things up a notch since the trade deadline; the August slug of .487 would be strong for an individual but is ludicrous as a team stat, marking the Jays' highest slugging percentage of any month this season, and the 168 runs scored in August qualifies for their most potent month, as well. They score runs at a clip that's 13.5-percent higher than the second best team on a per-game basis (the Yankees), and their front four bats are like a modern-day Murderer's Row, led by Josh Donaldson ($5900), Jose Bautista ($5400), Troy Tulowitzki ($4400), and the aforementioned Encarnacion ($4900). The “Avoid” tag is no knock to Salazar and more a nod to the bats of the Jays, an opponent which deserves to cause a greater discount to Salazar's salary tonight on Draft Kings. No pitcher deserves a $10k salary against Toronto, short of an interleague matchup with Clayton Kershaw that is.
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Resources used for this article:
Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
Draft Kings player prices
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