Fantasy Freestyle: Grading The Buyer’s Guide, Part One

As we near the All-Star break, I thought it would be useful to critique myself and my fantasy advice throughout the year. This allows me to own up to mistaken guidance or faulty analysis, while also celebrating my own home runs. In other words, this article hopes to be the “accountability” for which people crave.

The more valuable aspect of this piece, though, lies in the “why” question. That is, why was I right or wrong? It’s impossible to be perfect, of course, because it’s baseball. Randomness and unexpected progression/regression occur every single year. I’m more interested in the process behind my past decisions and want to critique that process, in an effort to improve future analysis.

Because this article would become massive if I covered every article, I’m going to do this in groups of six players/articles. That should keep it more manageable.

March 16, 2015: Michael Pineda

What I Said: “The likelihood that he can post another disappointing strikeout rate, missing the bats the way he can, is small. Thus, I say that you should take the gamble, take the talent, and hope he can remain healthy enough to start 25-plus games. If he can, he’s a potential top-20 starter, and the surplus value would be huge.” [link]

What He’s Done:

Analysis: Ultimately, my projections on Pineda have come to fruition. He’s missing more bats than last year, while still being stingy with the free passes. The right-hander can still miss in the zone too often, but the main culprit for his 3.79 ERA (which is still below the league-average 3.99 ERA for starters) is the brutal BABIP. He remains a very attractive trade target in fantasy circles, as he’s a Holy Grail pitcher—above average in strikeouts, walks, and groundballs. I’m fully comfortable with my conclusions for Pineda, even if he’s been closer to average than a top-20 pitcher through the first three months of the season.

Grade: A-

March 23, 2015: Kyle Hendricks

What I Said: “This isn’t to suggest I think Hendricks cannot be a successful major-league pitcher. If he continues to develop his changeup and his curveball, he could carve out a career as a useful back-end starter. That’s simply more valuable in real life to the Chicago Cubs than it is to fantasy owners who are chasing fantasy championships. Perhaps there’s a Cubs fan who believes Hendricks is a legit number three or a rebuilding squad in your dynasty league who covets younger players. Sell while people are intrigued by an unknown quantity. A couple months into the 2015 season, I’m not so sure they will be anymore.” [link]

What He’s Done:

Analysis: As mentioned in the above blurb, Hendricks has been better in real life for the Cubs than he has been in fantasy. In ESPN leagues, the right-hander has been the 106th-best fantasy pitcher. His strikeout rate has increased this year, though, which has aided his FIP and made him more palatable for fantasy owners. Still, the uptick in the strikeout rate remains unconvincing. His swinging-strike rate has fallen from 8.2 percent to 7.2 percent this year, while hitters are swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone. It doesn’t project to continue. That’s the only unexpected piece of Hendricks’s performance this year. Otherwise, he’s doing his best Mark Buehrle impersonation, which just isn’t exciting in fantasy circles, no matter how valuable it is for the Cubs.

Grade: B+

March 30, 2015: Adam Lind

What I Said: “Lind is one of my favorite sleeper picks this spring because he’s completely off the fantasy radar. Some sleepers see their value inflate because everyone wants to be the one to capitalize on the “hidden” value that’s no longer obscured. Lind could easily offer 25 homers plus a .275 average this season, if his back doesn’t become too much of an issue.” [link]

What He’s Done:

Analysis: Nailed it. He’s been a top-10 fantasy first baseman this year, despite going 284^th overall in the average draft. Maybe it’s this article that netted me the BP Milwaukee gig. That’s impossible to know for sure, I suppose, but I do know Bret Sayre and I will continue to host #AdamLindAppreciationSociety meetings on Twitter. Don’t feel bad for missing previous meetings, either. Y’all are welcome to join at any point.

Grade: A+

April 6, 2015: Kevin Gausman

What I Said: “The fantasy profile, in this season only, ultimately results in hope—hope that he’ll get a legitimate shot, and hope that he’ll show substantial improvement in key areas if he does receive that opportunity to start. I’d let someone else deal with the headache and grab a more reliable fantasy asset.” [link]

What He’s Done:

Analysis: It’s been yet another maddening year for those fantasy owners who expected great things from Gausman. He transitioned, again, from the rotation to the bullpen and made eight appearances in that role. The right-hander then landed on the disabled list and returned to the starting rotation after rehab, with questionable results. Then, to make life even more painful, the Orioles recently demoted Gausman to Triple-A Norfolk. This remains a situation that fantasy owners should avoid. Realistically, the 24-year-old (yeah, he’s that young) needs to get out of Baltimore, as Baltimore’s treatment of his development has been a debacle from the beginning.

Grade: A

April 13, 2015: Shane Greene

What I Said: “Early in the fantasy baseball season, you have the opportunity to buy low on guys before the book has been written on them. These windows don’t remain open for long, though. If Shane Greene dominates throughout the rest of April, his price tag may become prohibitive or rival owners may no longer be willing to sell. In these moments, you have to trust your gut and be willing to make a call on a guy. Do you believe this improvement has a chance to stick and be something impactful throughout the season? I’m willing to roll the dice and believe Greene has found one of those transitional moments that will up his fantasy stock. At the very least, I think that the potential reward outweighs the miniscule risk, as the price tag isn’t exorbitant. For now.” [link]

What He’s Done:

Analysis: Shane Greene didn’t have one of those transitional moments, it seems. Perhaps that’s putting it too mildly. After I wrote this article, he fired back-to-back gems; however, he subsequently imploded. The right-hander stuck with his new changeup, but he lost consistency with the pitch and lefties teed-off on him, hitting .338/.392/.563 on the season. Greene desperately needs his changeup to be at least average to have long-term success in the majors. Unfortunately, as is often the case with early-season analysis, I banked on improvement in an extremely small sample size (one start) and got burned. I attempted to supplement the small-sample data with physical changes—a new grip on his changeup—to cut through the inherent dangers in drawing conclusions from limited data. Needless to say, that worked poorly. Perhaps the lesson to be learned is that preseason “improvement stories” are often meaningless fluff and players generally play to their career norms. That feels overly simplistic, but it certainly fits the bill for Greene.

Grade: F

April 20, 2015: Mike Moustakas

What I Said: “I want to believe in his overall improvement; however, it’s impossible for me to ignore the elephant in the room. His biggest issue has always been weak contact, rather than no contact. His unbelievable 42.1 percent infield-fly rate suggests that flaw has not disappeared. Throw in the fact that he has an 18.2 percent infield-hit rate despite having a career 4.1 percent mark, and the batting average seems destined to tumble in a significant way. Perhaps the improvements outlined above will allow him to keep the batting average around .240-.250 from here to the end of the season, but I cannot foresee him hitting anywhere near .300 as he is now. I could, however, see heightened power that combines with better run and RBI totals, which would make him much more valuable in fantasy leagues than he has been in previous seasons.” [link]

What He’s Done:

Analysis: I remained cautious about buying into Moustakas’s breakout, due to the statistics that suggested consistently poor contact. Those numbers have tumbled. Since writing the piece, Moustakas has only compiled a 7.0 percent infield-fly rate and a 4.0 percent infield-hit rate. Furthermore, only 18.1 percent of the balls he has hit have been classified as “soft” contact. So, in that way, the major concerns I expressed never affected his later performance. In fact, all the positive improvements I outlined in the article have continued. He is still hitting almost 30 percent of balls to the opposite field, a huge number for him. His swinging-strike rate remains low at only 6.4 percent. As far as a fantasy asset, Moustakas has severe limits due to his lack of power and his inability to run. But as I mentioned in April, his batting in the two-hole for the Royal s increases his ability to drive in and score runs, which has helped him become the 12th-overall fantasy third baseman. Again, not otherworldly, but much better than forecasted prior to the season.

Grade: B