Platoons
Target: LHB Luis Valbuena 2B/3B ($4200, +35 OPS and +.019 ISO career against RHP) versus RHP Justin Masterson ($5100, +185 OPS and +.058 ISO against LHB)
The career splits don't reveal much, but 2015 has been a unique campaign for Valbuena, who has struggled to hit over the Mendoza line yet whose 19 homers put him in a tie for fifth (Donaldson, Teixeira) in the American League. His 2015 splits include a +179 OPS and +.080 ISO against right-handers, with 14 of his 19 bombs and six of his seven doubles (the ratio of homers-to-doubles is ridiculous). Rostering Valbuena is literally a hit-or-miss move, as even with the platoon advantage this season he's hitting just .212, but the upshot is a multi-homer night against one of the biggest pitcher platoons in the game.
RHB Buster Posey C/1B ($4200, +121 OPS and +.078 ISO vs. LHP) against LHP Gio Gonzalez (-10 OPS vs. RHP)
He's playing in the 6:00pm EST game so is only available in certain formats, but this is your reminder to start Posey automatically when he is facing a lefty. A scare from a foul-tip put him at risk of day-to-day status, but he was back in the lineup yesterday and hit a homer for good measure. The fact that Gio has been far more hittable than usual this season and currently sports a 4.41 ERA are just icing on the cake, easily covering for the fact that Gio's own platoon split is nonexistent.
Avoid: RHB Justin Upton OF ($4000, -100 OPS and -.039 ISO vs. RHP), Matt Kemp ($4000, -137 OPS and -.029 ISO vs. RHP), and Derek Norris C ($3300, -206 OPS and -.054 ISO vs. RHP) against RHP Michael Wacha
The Padres are stacked with lefty mashers, but the bats are relatively unimpressive with an opposing right-hander on the mound. Combine the platoon disadvantage with their recent struggles at the dish: Upton is hitting .169 with one homer and two steals in his last 17 games and Derek Norris is hitting just .140 in his last 23 ballgames, though the bat of Matt Kemp has started to awaken from its slumber. The only hope is provided by the extreme reverse split of Wacha, whose incredible changeup has fueled an OPS that is 98 points better against left-handed bats despite his holding a disadvantage on the platoon scale. The platoon OPS is essentially even this season as Wacha has integrated a couple of breaking pitches into the mix, helping to justify the “Avoid” tag on the Padre bats.
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Matchups
Avoid: Adam Jones OF ($4400) vs. LHP John Danks
It feels weird to suggest avoiding any player – let alone a right-handed hitter – against firestarter John Danks, but his history with Adam Jones suggests that DFS owners look elsewhere when filling their outfield. Jones has a slight reverse split in his career (-27 OPS vs. southpaws) but for whatever reason he has yet to figure out Danks, whose “vs. batter” category on Baseball-Reference is littered with big performances, particularly among those who have seen Danks the most times. In 31 head-to-head matchups in their careers, Jones is just 1-for-30 with seven strikeouts, one walk, and a .033/.065/.033 slash.
Recency
Target: Clayton Kershaw ($13100), versus the New York Mets
The price is prohibitive, but Kershaw's recent dominance suggests that he's back on track as one of the top starters in the game, and the question marks surrounding the other arms above the $10k pay-grade might seal the deal for his value. He needs to score more than 26 points on Draft Kings tonight in order to justify a $13k commitment, and the fact that he has a floor of 23.9 points over his last seven starts and a peak of 41.6 helps to justify the lofty price tag. He's a near-lock for a strong K count, with nine or more strikeouts in each of his last five games and only two games this year in which he failed to reach seven punchouts. The Mets have lost huge chunks of their offense to the disabled list and their best remaining hitter (Lucas Duda) struggles against left-handed pitchers, paving the way for a huge day for Kershaw.
Avoid: Masahiro Tanaka ($10200), versus the Tampa Bay Rays
Though he check in at $2900 cheaper than Kershaw, Tanaka is next on the list for salary among today's slate of pitchers. His last two starts have been brutal, producing just 15 outs in each turn while giving up a total of 13 runs (11 earned), including six homeruns among 17 hits and tacking on four walks. In contrast, he had surrendered just 14 total runs on the season (12 earned) in 43.3 innings coming into those two games, despite dealing with various degrees of lost velocity and injury-related issues with pitch command. His opponents were the Tigers and Astros, two strong offenses that can spike with crooked numbers, so he should be a stronger play against the Rays. Tanaka has his owners on high alert due to his known UCL tear, which could impact his pitch command more than his velocity, the fact that eight of his 10 homers allowed on the season have come in the last four games is a worrisome trend.
Price
Target: Kyle Seager 3B ($3300), facing RHP Jesse Chavez
Seager had a very slow start to the season and his current price tag is the result of a rough stretch that has included a .143 batting average in his last 10 games. However, as we near the halfway mark his batting line is essentially a lock for last season (which garnered him a top-20 finish in the voting for AL MVP) save a dozen singles. The power and the patience are still intact, and despite his recent dip the overall line still features a .434 slugging percentage for 2015. Seager's career OPS against right-handed pitchers is 116 points higher than it is versus lefties (795 compared to 679), and he hits much better away from Safeco than at home (+78 OPS on the road), providing further incentive to plug him in tonight against right-hander Chavez in Oakland.
Avoid: Erick Aybar SS ($3900), facing RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez
This recommendation has little to do with Gonzalez, who I think is playing way over his head and is overdue for a harsh dose of reality, and is all about the price attached to Aybar. The shortstop's slash on the season is a mere .261/.304/.321 and he is only six-for-nine on the basepaths. He does have a 12-game stretch with a 903 OPS, but that performance is driven by singles and a .382 BABIP. For that same price I would rather have Jhonny Peralta at short tonight against Andrew Cashner.
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Resources used for this article:
Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
Draft Kings player prices
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